Is the U again?!
It has been a minute.
With Miami’s win in opposition to rival Florida on Saturday evening, the U — winners of 5 titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the highest workforce within the nation as soon as once more.
This can be a program that hasn’t gained an ACC title since becoming a member of the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not solely the highest playoff contender within the convention, but in addition as the highest workforce within the nation. It is nonetheless early, however assertion wins are arduous to return by, and Miami’s résumé now contains wins in opposition to Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member Faculty Soccer Playoff choice committee does not launch its first rating till Nov. 4, however based mostly on what every workforce has completed up to now, Miami is without doubt one of the few groups that has appeared like the overall package deal.
The record under is fluid — and can proceed to be early within the season. This is the newest prediction of what the choice committee’s prime 12 would appear like if it had been launched immediately.
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Rating | Bracket
Projecting the highest 12
Why they might be right here: With wins in opposition to Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the perfect mixture of eye check and résumé. It did not come simple in opposition to the Gators, however Miami’s protection was stifling for the majority of the sport. The choice committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry sport and would acknowledge the problem of the win, although Florida is struggling this 12 months. As proficient as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ greatest win was in opposition to a Texas workforce that has since fallen out of the projected prime 12. Miami has cemented itself because the ACC’s prime playoff contender — a minimum of till it is selected the sector on Oct. 4 in opposition to Florida State.
Why they might be decrease: If the committee had been to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this level, it could merely be as a result of some members suppose the Buckeyes are extra proficient.
Must know: Miami has the perfect probability of any Energy 4 workforce within the nation to win out (19.3%), based on ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI provides Miami a 66.1% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: The choice committee does not usually transfer groups if they do not play, until there’s motion round them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the highest spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win in opposition to Texas continues to be the most effective nonconference wins of the season, however that is all of the Buckeyes have in the meanwhile. A win in opposition to Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling will not impress the committee. A win in opposition to Texas will, however how a lot the committee values it on Choice Day relies on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they might be increased: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it may be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week nearly useless even in all three phases of the sport.
Must know: In accordance with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the perfect probability within the nation to succeed in the CFP (77%).
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI provides the Buckeyes a 64.9% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: The 44-41 time beyond regulation win in opposition to Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first assertion win in opposition to a ranked opponent, and the committee will word that it was on the highway. It helped barely this week that Tennessee confirmed no indicators of a letdown in a lopsided win in opposition to overmatched UAB.
Why they might be decrease: The win in opposition to the Vols may not be sufficient. Georgia’s different wins are in opposition to Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Must know: ESPN’s FPI initiatives Georgia will win every of its remaining video games, which might put the Bulldogs again within the SEC title sport. What occurs, although, in the event that they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s nonetheless loads of time — and alternative — to impress the committee with wins in opposition to opponents equivalent to Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It is doable that Georgia may have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Hardest remaining sport: Saturday vs. Alabama. This sport is at house, and the Bulldogs have an additional week to organize for it, however the Tide have proven steady enchancment since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI provides Georgia a 55% probability to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor provides Georgia a 65.2% probability to succeed in the playoff, unbiased of different outcomes.
Why they might be right here: Florida State has been dominant, rating No. 3 within the nation in ESPN’s sport management metric. The Noles additionally entered this week ranked No. 3 in energy of document. The Seminoles are passing the attention check however nonetheless must beef up their résumé past a season-opening win in opposition to Alabama. The Tide had been off this week however have performed effectively in opposition to every of their previous two unranked opponents, persevering with to make Florida State’s win beneficial within the committee assembly room. The Seminoles, although, will not have one other probability to impress the group in opposition to a ranked opponent till Oct. 4 in opposition to Miami.
Why they might be decrease: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS workforce East Texas A&M.
Must know: Georgia Tech does not face Florida State or Miami in the course of the common season however may play one in all them within the ACC title sport. That makes the regular-season rivalry sport between the Noles and Canes essential to the ACC race. Coming into Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the perfect possibilities to succeed in the ACC championship sport, adopted by Florida State (24.1%).
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI provides the Canes a 66.1% probability to win. November video games at Clemson and Florida not look as daunting.
Why they might be right here: The Tigers’ two greatest wins — in opposition to Clemson and Florida — are actually in opposition to unranked groups with dropping data. Florida State has appeared higher offensively, and its win in opposition to Alabama is healthier than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ protection, although, has been one thing the committee members would discover. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent greater than 10 factors this season and is fifth within the nation in defensive effectivity.
Why they might be decrease: Some questions stay concerning the offensive line, which options 4 new starters and hasn’t all the time given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he wants. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per cross try, and the Tigers are nonetheless trying to find extra explosive performs. LSU’s 17 explosive performs coming into Saturday had been the fewest within the SEC. LSU is No. 62 within the nation in offensive effectivity. The choice committee seems to be for groups which can be within the prime 10 in each offense and protection.
Must know: LSU has an opportunity to reinforce its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, the place a win can be its most spectacular up to now and supply some cushion for a tricky upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 within the nation, based on ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI provides the Tide a 77.1% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after incomes the most effective nonconference wins within the nation final week at Notre Dame. The Aggies noticed their playoff possibilities improve by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% probability to make the playoff. Nonetheless, the Aggies are clinging to at least one win to spice up their whole résumé proper now, as the remainder of their schedule contains UTSA and Utah State.
Why they might be increased: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s energy of metric document, which implies the typical top-25 opponent would have a 37% probability of attaining the identical 3-0 document in opposition to the identical opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as extra spectacular than the Canes’ win in opposition to the Irish as a result of Texas A&M needed to win on the highway.
Must know: If Texas A&M does not win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 workforce — and Notre Dame runs the desk and likewise finishes 10-2 — the choice committee would use the head-to-head consequence as one in all its tiebreakers and provides the Aggies the sting. ESPN’s FPI, although, provides Texas A&M lower than a 50% probability to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies even have a really troublesome journey to rival Texas within the regular-season finale, however proper now the Tigers appear like a harder out on the highway. ESPN’s FPI provides LSU a 51.6% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: Wins in opposition to Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two high quality wins in opposition to what might be CFP prime 25 opponents. The win in opposition to the Wolverines helps separate OU from different contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it seems to be even higher after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the highway. The choice committee additionally appreciates star energy, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and speeding landing in 10 straight video games.
Why they might be increased: Mateer has been the story early, however the protection and its 10 sacks had been the spotlight within the win in opposition to Auburn, giving the committee a whole workforce to contemplate. The wins in opposition to Michigan and Auburn may additionally outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, although it was on the highway and OU gained each of its huge video games at house. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one nice one — an argument that is also made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Must know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule within the FBS, based on ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated begin gives a essential cushion for a backloaded schedule that might embody as many as six ranked opponents within the remaining seven video games.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how robust the Vols performed of their time beyond regulation loss to Georgia, this ought to be one other slugfest between two proficient groups. ESPN’s FPI provides the Vols a 64.3% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: The Geese proceed to dismantle weaker competitors, together with their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place within the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and the whole lot to do with dominant wins. The Geese entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s sport management metric, No. 3 in factors margin and No. 2 within the nation with 54 factors per sport. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive effectivity and No. 4 in defensive effectivity, making the Geese one of the full groups within the nation.
Why they might be decrease: Montana State is an FCS workforce. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win in opposition to Northwestern quantities to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated due to the opponents the Geese beat.
Must know: Oregon has the perfect probability within the Massive Ten to make the convention championship sport (55.1%) and win it (34%), based on ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining sport: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI provides the Nittany Lions a 52% probability to win — it is the one sport on the Geese’ schedule they are not favored to win.
Why they might be right here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins in opposition to Nevada, Florida Worldwide and Villanova are maintaining them behind contenders with higher résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s energy of document metric — and each workforce listed above is ranked within the prime 20.
Why they might be decrease: Penn State ranks No. 71 within the nation in offensive effectivity — effectively under what’s typical of previous playoff individuals. No wins in opposition to Energy 4 opponents would additionally maintain the Nittany Lions again. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has simply 4 touchdowns and one interception.
Must know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a sport that may lastly reveal how critically to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI provides Penn State a 52% probability to win. If it does not, it’s going to possible must beat Ohio State on the highway to get an opportunity on the Massive Ten title sport — and probably a rematch with Oregon. With no win in opposition to the Geese OR Ohio State — and with no Massive Ten title sport look — Penn State’s greatest probability for a notable win can be in opposition to Indiana on Nov. 8. A ten-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a greater résumé with the identical document.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It is the one sport on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI does not favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: The choice committee considers how groups win — and the way they lose — and the Vols have managed to do each in addition to could be anticipated. The committee is not going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 time beyond regulation loss to Georgia, although it’s going to hold the Vols behind the Dawgs so long as their data are comparable. And the season-opening win in opposition to Syracuse seems to be even higher after the Orange gained at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they might be decrease: The Vols are nonetheless lacking a real assertion win, although Syracuse is usually a CFP Prime 25 workforce on Choice Day.
Must know: The Vols’ possibilities of reaching the SEC title sport are slim, based on ESPN Analytics, which supplies Tennessee simply an 8.1% probability to succeed in the sport and a 4.4% probability to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot within the playoff final 12 months, although, as an at-large workforce, and might try this once more, however it might probably’t go 0-2 in opposition to Alabama and Oklahoma.
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI provides the Tide a 66.3% probability to win. It is the one sport on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they might be right here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win in opposition to a veteran Illinois workforce that final week was on this spot. That they had dominated their earlier two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), however this was the primary probability to indicate the committee a whole efficiency in opposition to a ranked Massive Ten opponent. The Illini had gained every of their first three video games by a minimum of 25 factors. The committee would additionally spotlight the sturdy play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Massive Ten in landing passes. He continued that success in opposition to an Illinois protection that had allowed solely two passing touchdowns in three video games.
Why they might be decrease: Some committee members might be extra impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 within the nation in ESPN’s energy of document metric. They might additionally think about a much bigger increase for Texas Tech, which gained on the highway, whereas the Hoosiers gained at house. The committee would additionally think about the damage to Texas Tech’s beginning quarterback.
Must know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff workforce for the second straight season, they’ll have earned it with a harder schedule this 12 months, as they nonetheless should face Oregon and Penn State — each on the highway. If IU does not win the Massive Ten title, it most likely must a minimum of cut up with these opponents to win a debate with one other contender for an at-large bid.
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI provides the Geese an 82.3% probability to win.
Why they might be right here: The win at Utah is healthier than something Texas has on its résumé — and the Crimson Raiders acquired it completed with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s possibilities of reaching the Massive 12 title sport jumped to 40%, based on ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech can be getting credit score right here for beating Oregon State in the identical method Oregon did (the Crimson Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 per week earlier than the Geese upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a decent Utah workforce, although, within the first Massive 12 sport for each groups helped Texas Tech enter the playoff dialog because the league’s new main contender.
Why they might be decrease: Ole Miss has had three straight wins in opposition to respectable opponents, together with back-to-back wins in opposition to SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels even have a case for shifting into the committee’s prime 12.
Must know: If Texas Tech does not win the Massive 12, it may have bother incomes an at-large bid as a result of it may not play one other ranked opponent this season. It is arduous to think about the committee leaving out a one-loss Massive 12 runner-up, although. If the Crimson Raiders had been to lose an in depth sport to a ranked opponent within the league title sport, they’d nonetheless have a robust case for an at-large bid. In the event that they end as a two-loss runner-up, although, they might lose a debate for an at-large bid with one other contender with a greater résumé.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI provides BYU a 51.4% probability to win. It is the one remaining sport the Crimson Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based mostly on the rankings above, the seeding can be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Massive Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Massive 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal video games
On the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Offered by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State