Nowhere within the Faculty Soccer Playoff choice committee’s protocol does it confer with something a few crew’s historical past and custom — or lack thereof. It isn’t presupposed to care that Vanderbilt hasn’t been 7-1 in 84 years.
The 12 individuals in that room will completely care, although, that Vanderbilt is 7-1 now — with back-to-back wins towards ranked SEC opponents LSU and Missouri. Vanderbilt — the story of the season — is on the point of making its first look in any CFP rating through the playoff period.
And never solely will the Commodores crack the committee’s prime 25, however additionally they can have a reliable likelihood to make their debut within the coveted prime 12 when the primary rating is launched Nov. 4. If the playoff had been right this moment, they might already be in. Lots can — and can — change with one Saturday remaining earlier than the primary rating is revealed, however here’s a snapshot of what it would appear like by means of Week 9 outcomes.
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Rating | Bracket
Projecting the highest 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
Why they may very well be right here: The Buckeyes stay protected on the prime after a bye week, as Indiana’s house win towards a UCLA crew that’s now 3-5 would not be sufficient to sway the committee into flipping them. Ohio State entered Week 9 ranked No. 1 within the nation in complete effectivity, No. 1 in defensive effectivity, and No. 6 in offensive effectivity. The Buckeyes even have three Large Ten highway wins to Indiana’s two, and are No. 1 in ESPN’s Recreation Management metric with a slight edge over No. 2 Indiana. Ohio State’s win at Washington would even be strongly valued by the committee, because the Huskies improved to 6-2 on Saturday.
Why they may very well be decrease: Indiana retains making statements – even towards unranked groups like UCLA. The Hoosiers’ win at Oregon is best than Ohio State’s win at Texas, although the Longhorns managed an epic time beyond regulation comeback on Saturday at Mississippi State. The choice committee additionally compares frequent opponents, and whereas each Ohio State and Indiana beat Illinois with ease, the Hoosiers did it in historic style, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst lack of his profession.
Must know: Ohio State’s spot on the prime is not a assure because the season progresses. If Alabama runs the desk and wins the SEC, the choice committee would at the very least contemplate the Tide for the No. 1 spot. Alabama entered Saturday with the No. 2 hardest schedule within the nation — Ohio State was No. 33. The query could be if sufficient committee members might forgive the season-opening loss to Florida State, which has appeared worse each week. So whereas this pecking order has been pretty secure with the Large Ten on the prime, the opportunity of shuffling stays — and that features a promotion for the Hoosiers, too, in the event that they end as undefeated Large Ten champs.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes try to keep away from a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (8-0)
Why they may very well be right here: The Hoosiers asserted themselves towards a recharged UCLA crew, leaving little doubt they had been higher in one other lopsided win. Indiana nonetheless owns the perfect win within the nation, Oct. 11 at Oregon, and the historic 63-10 win towards Illinois is one other separation level between the Hoosiers and different contenders. They do not have a nonconference win, although, that stacks up towards Ohio State’s season-opening win towards Texas.
Why they may very well be greater: Indiana’s sheer domination of UCLA was yet one more assertion of the Hoosiers’ relentless consistency. They do not play all the way down to their opponents and have overwhelmed everybody however Iowa by double digits. The 30-20 win at Oregon is best than Ohio State’s house win towards the Longhorns on the general résumé, and IU entered Saturday ranked No. 2 within the nation in ESPN’s Energy of File metric — simply forward of Ohio State.
Must know: The Hoosiers have handed their most troublesome assessments of the season. Their process now could be to keep away from what could be a surprising November upset. None of their remaining opponents are ranked and solely Maryland (4-3) is above .500. If the Hoosiers run the desk and play for the Large Ten championship, they need to be a CFP lock. Even when they lose the title recreation, they need to be in competition for a top-four end and first-round bye.
Hardest remaining recreation: If Indiana is a playoff crew, it should not lose in November. Three of IU’s final 4 video games are on the highway, however Maryland has misplaced three straight, Penn State has misplaced 4 straight, and Purdue has misplaced six in a row. The Hoosiers’ final house recreation is Nov. 15 towards a struggling Wisconsin crew. Indiana has at the very least a 70% likelihood to win every remaining recreation.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The Tide averted an upset on the highway towards a scrappy South Carolina crew, preserving its place as what must be the committee’s prime one-loss crew. Alabama hasn’t misplaced since its season-opener at Florida State, and has 4 wins towards ranked opponents. The Tide entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Energy of File metric, No. 2 in power of schedule, and within the prime 15 in each offensive and defensive effectivity. The win towards Georgia will maintain the Tide above the Bulldogs so long as their information stay the identical due to the committee’s tiebreaker protocol.
Why they may very well be decrease: The loss to Florida State occurred, and the Noles at the moment are 3-4. In the meantime Texas A&M continues to be undefeated after its convincing highway win at LSU, additional enhancing its résumé with a second highway win towards a ranked opponent.
Must know: Alabama has a much-needed bye week and will not play once more earlier than the choice committee releases its first rating on Nov. 4. This eight-game résumé is what the group will use to find out the place Alabama begins.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 13 vs. Oklahoma. The Tide must be favored to win at house, however it’s every week after internet hosting LSU. Alabama has at the very least a 72% likelihood to win every of its remaining video games, in keeping with ESPN Analytics. Alabama and Georgia have the perfect possibilities within the convention to succeed in the SEC title recreation.
4. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
Why they may very well be right here: With the win at LSU on Saturday, the Aggies have compiled probably the most spectacular résumés within the nation, additional cementing their place within the prime 4. Texas A&M now has two highway wins towards ranked opponents, together with the Sept. 13 nonconference win at Notre Dame. It was additionally their second straight SEC highway win after escaping Arkansas. The Aggies are No. 1 within the nation in ESPN’s Energy of File metric, and entered Week 9 ranked No. 8 in Recreation Management. Even with one loss, although, Alabama has 4 wins towards ranked opponents. Texas A&M may very well be held again by the committee as a result of LSU and Notre Dame are the one opponents they’ve defeated with successful information. Everybody else is a mixed 20-26.
Why they may very well be greater: The Aggies are undefeated and a few committee members would have a tough time forgetting Alabama’s loss to Florida State.
Must know: The Aggies and Tide do not play one another through the common season, however might settle the talk within the SEC championship recreation. Texas A&M additionally would not play Georgia through the common season.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns’ playoff hopes may very well be on the road, and ending the season on the highway towards a rival isn’t straightforward.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The Bulldogs had a bye week, however their Oct. 18 win towards Ole Miss appears even higher right this moment after the Rebels received at Oklahoma. Georgia’s head-to-head win towards Ole Miss will maintain them above the Rebels so long as their information are comparable due to the tiebreaker within the committee’s protocol. A 3-point loss to Alabama can even maintain them beneath the Tide for a similar motive. The time beyond regulation highway win towards what must be a CFP Prime 25 Tennessee crew provides to their résumé and helps separate Georgia from different one-loss contenders.
Why they may very well be decrease: Lopsided wins towards Marshall and Austin Peay aren’t going to impress anybody within the committee assembly room. Kentucky and Auburn have at the very least 4 losses every. The Bulldogs entered their bye week No. 6 in ESPN’s Energy of File metric.
Must know: Rival Georgia Tech has the perfect likelihood of any crew to succeed in the ACC championship recreation, which suggests Georgia has a chance to presumably improve its résumé with a win towards the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are at the moment undefeated and pushed the Bulldogs to eight overtimes final 12 months. This 12 months’s recreation shall be performed at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The Rebels earned their first highway win towards a ranked SEC opponent on Saturday at Oklahoma, including to an already spectacular résumé that features wins towards Tulane and LSU. The eight-point loss at Georgia on Oct. 18 is the one blemish, and it is among the finest methods to lose within the eyes of the committee — on the highway to a ranked opponent in a detailed recreation. That head-to-head consequence, although, will maintain Ole Miss behind Georgia so long as their information stay the identical.
Why they may very well be decrease: The Rebels entered Week 9 ranked No. 71 in defensive effectivity, properly beneath most different contenders right here. Sometimes, prime playoff groups rank within the prime 10-15 in each offense and protection. Ole Miss had allowed 22 factors per recreation by means of the primary seven video games, and was No. 108 within the nation with 10 sacks. They’re additionally probably the most penalized groups within the nation, giving up 69 penalty yards per recreation by means of the primary seven video games.
Must know: On this projection, Ole Miss would earn the No. 6 seed, which might imply a first-round house recreation as the upper seed. The Rebels could need assistance to get into the SEC championship recreation due to the loss to Georgia, however should not lose once more. Ole Miss possible will not face one other ranked opponent this season.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl is at all times fascinating, however a loss to the Bulldogs might imply a first-round highway journey as a substitute of a house recreation — or getting bumped out of the bracket totally.
7. Miami Hurricanes (6-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The Canes obtained off to a gradual begin at house towards Stanford, however finally pulled away to keep away from what would have been a devastating loss to a sub-.500 crew. The Hurricanes rebounded from their Oct. 17 loss to Louisville, and nonetheless have a good résumé, however it’s misplaced a few of its luster. The win towards South Florida stays respectable, however the Bulls possibilities of successful the American took successful on Saturday with their loss to Memphis. Florida has already fired coach Billy Napier, and Florida State has misplaced 4 straight. Miami’s season-opening win towards Notre Dame, although, continues to be among the finest nonconference wins within the nation and continues to assist separate the Canes from different contenders with a weaker schedule. It additionally helped Miami that Louisville beat Boston Faculty and must be a one-loss CFP Prime 25 crew, softening the blow of that loss just a little. And Miami continues to be performing properly, rating within the prime 12 in each offensive and defensive effectivity.
Why they may very well be decrease: Some choice committee members might argue that Vanderbilt has a greater résumé than each Oregon and Miami so far as one-loss groups. Even earlier than the Commodores earned their second win towards a ranked opponent, they had been No. 11, sandwiched between No. 10 Oregon and No. 12 Miami in ESPN’s Energy of File metric.
Must know: The Canes will go away their house state for the primary time all season after they journey to SMU on Saturday.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 29 at Pitt. The Panthers have received 4 straight video games, together with a surprising 53-34 win towards NC State on Saturday.
8. Oregon Geese (7-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The ten-point house loss to Indiana is the one blemish, and the committee would contemplate {that a} first rate loss. They might additionally nonetheless look considerably favorable upon the double time beyond regulation win at Penn State, contemplating the Nittany Lions nonetheless had their head coach and it was an unforgiving surroundings and crowd. It actually is not an announcement win, however no one within the room goes to penalize Oregon for it, both. The Geese entered Week 9 ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s Energy of File metric.
Why they may very well be decrease: The Geese got here out flat towards a struggling Wisconsin crew, and haven’t got loads on their résumé to check with different one-loss groups. Vanderbilt has two higher wins, and undefeated BYU can argue higher wins towards Utah and Iowa State. The committee would level out an FCS win towards Montana State, and Oklahoma State and Oregon State are a mixed 2-14. General, Oregon entered Saturday with the No. 31 power of schedule — simply barely forward of No. 34 Vanderbilt.
Must know: Oregon has extra possibilities to impress the choice committee in November, with video games towards Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all groups with successful information and doubtlessly ranked within the CFP Prime 25. The committee would not undertaking forward, although, and Oregon has a bye week heading into the primary rating. Do not be shocked if the Geese are decrease than some would possibly anticipate the defending Large Ten champions to be when the primary rating is revealed on Nov. 4. Final 12 months’s outcomes do not influence the committee’s choices this 12 months, however schedules do. Oregon has a bye earlier than the primary rating is revealed, and never loads on its résumé to impress the group. Eye check will play a task.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have solely misplaced to Ohio State and on the highway towards Michigan.
9. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1)
Why they may very well be right here: The committee would have a troublesome determination, placing the one-loss Commodores forward of two undefeated groups, however might justify it as a result of Vanderbilt’s two greatest wins are higher than BYU’s wins towards Utah and Iowa State — and higher than any of Georgia Tech’s wins. The lone loss was to Alabama, which must be the committee’s prime one-loss crew. The Commodores have now received back-to-back video games towards ranked SEC opponents. Additionally they earned a convincing 31-7 win at South Carolina, which simply pushed Alabama to the brink. Vanderbilt could be in contrast with one-loss Texas Tech, and the Commodores have higher wins than the Purple Raiders, and a greater loss, as Texas Tech misplaced to Arizona State.
Why they may very well be decrease: The committee might reward the undefeated Large 12 and ACC groups just because they have not misplaced but.
Must know: This place might change rapidly, as Vandy is at Texas on Saturday, it is final likelihood to make a primary impression on the choice committee earlier than its first rating. Vandy’s final two video games towards ranked SEC opponents are each on the highway; Saturday at Texas and within the regular-season finale on Nov. 29 at Tennessee.
Hardest remaining recreation: Saturday at Texas. The Longhorns are desperately attempting to maintain their playoff hopes alive by avoiding a 3rd loss, and ESPN Analytics offers them at the very least a 70% likelihood to win.
10. BYU Cougars (8-0)
Why they may very well be right here: BYU entered Week 9 ranked No. 60 in ESPN’s Energy of Schedule metric, which might be a big disadvantage within the committee assembly room — however it’s forward of Georgia Tech in each schedule power and Energy of File, the place BYU was No. 5 on Saturday. BYU rallied at Iowa State to earn its fourth highway win of the season and stays the one undefeated crew left within the Large 12. Its greatest wins, although, are towards Utah and Iowa State, that are each over .500 however borderline CFP Prime 25 groups.
Why they may very well be decrease: The committee would focus on an FCS win towards Portland State, and a win towards a sub-.500 crew in West Virginia. BYU additionally wanted double time beyond regulation to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Must know: This was BYU’s final likelihood to impress the choice committee earlier than the primary rating is revealed on Nov. 4 as a result of they’ve a bye week on Saturday. The committee can have an undefeated Large 12 crew to think about for its first of six rankings.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Purple Raiders rebounded from their loss at Arizona State with a convincing win towards a beleaguered Oklahoma State crew on Saturday. BYU and Texas Tech have the best possibilities to succeed in the Large 12 title recreation, in keeping with ESPN Analytics, adopted by Cincinnati. The Cougars must play each opponents on the highway through the common season, however have a bye week to organize for the Nov. 8 recreation at Texas Tech.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-0)
Why they may very well be right here: Undefeated Georgia Tech entered this week ranked No. 72 in ESPN’s Energy of Schedule metric, which can most likely maintain the Jackets decrease within the committee’s prime 12. Their greatest nonconference win is at Colorado, and the committee would word an FCS win towards Gardner-Webb. Even with out three injured starters, although, Georgia Tech pulled away to beat Syracuse soundly on Saturday — and the committee considers accidents to key gamers. The Jackets wanted a convincing win after struggling a number of occasions to get separation towards unranked opponents.
Why they may very well be greater: The Yellow Jackets would possible be behind BYU as a result of the Cougars have higher wins, however they might each be above Vanderbilt if extra committee members maintain the Commodores decrease due to their loss to Alabama.
Must know: With none CFP Prime 25 wins on their résumé, model factors might turn out to be useful in November in case Georgia Tech loses to rival Georgia and would not win the ACC. A win towards Georgia, although, would impress the committee any approach it occurred. That might make it a lot simpler for the group to incorporate Georgia Tech as an at-large crew if the Jackets’ lone loss is to the ACC champion.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes final 12 months earlier than shedding, 44-42, in Athens.
12. Notre Dame Combating Irish (5-2)
Why they may very well be right here: The Irish stay on the bubble following their bye week, however the Oct. 18 house win towards USC catapulted them again into the dialog. It was their first win towards a ranked opponent, and the fifth straight win since an 0-2 begin. Notre Dame was No. 9 general in ESPN’s Energy of Schedule metric getting into Saturday, however some committee members can have hassle voting the Irish a lot greater due to the 2 losses — although they had been by a mixed 4 factors to 2 ranked opponents. The victory towards 6-2 Boise State was one among Notre Dame’s greatest wins, and that was a part of a string of three video games by which the Irish protection held its opponents to 13 factors or fewer.
Why they may very well be decrease: With the losses to Miami and Texas A&M, Notre Dame checked in at No. 18 in ESPN’s Energy of File metric getting into Saturday. It did not assist that Miami misplaced to Louisville.
Must know: If the playoff had been right this moment, Notre Dame could be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked convention champion, which is assured a spot within the 12-team area. Proper now that crew — Memphis because the projected American champion — could be ranked exterior the highest 12. As an impartial, Notre Dame cannot lock up a spot within the playoff as one of many 5 convention champions, so its solely path is thru an at-large bid.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win every of its remaining video games, however this one is on the highway towards an ACC crew above .500. The Irish entered Week 9 with the perfect likelihood within the nation to win out (68.4%).
Bracket
Based mostly on the rankings above, the seeding could be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Large Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Large 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal video games
On the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Introduced by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State