The extra issues change, the extra … Ohio State stays the identical.
There have been some Week 10 surprises, however not on the prime, the place defending nationwide champion Ohio State ought to begin the primary School Soccer Playoff rankings on Tuesday proper the place it left off final season — at No. 1. Whereas there might be some debate excessive spot when the 12 members of this yr’s group vote on groups for his or her first official prime 25 rating of the season, the larger dialogue will probably revolve round one-loss Alabama and undefeated Texas A&M for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots.
How far do the two-loss Canes fall after their loss at SMU, and the way excessive can two-loss Notre Dame rise? Can Texas Tech make its debut within the CFP prime 25? Was Vandy’s second within the subject fleeting after its loss to Texas?
This is a prediction of what the choice committee will do on Tuesday night time when it reveals its first of six rankings (8 p.m. ET/ESPN) — the season’s first true baseline of the playoff pecking order.
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Rating | Bracket
Projecting the highest 12
Why they might be right here: Ohio State has been one of the vital constantly full groups, and that season-opening win in opposition to Texas will proceed to spice up the Buckeyes. The Longhorns’ win in opposition to Vanderbilt on Saturday helped each their playoff hopes and Ohio State’s résumé. Ohio State additionally has highway wins in opposition to Washington and Illinois, two of the Large Ten’s higher groups. Ohio State hasn’t allowed a group greater than 16 factors this season. The Buckeyes entered Saturday main the nation in whole effectivity and ranked within the prime three in each offensive and defensive effectivity. Saturday’s lopsided win in opposition to a Penn State group that is still winless in convention play will not wow anybody within the room, however it’ll proceed to boost the Buckeyes’ file energy.
Why they might be decrease: Indiana has a greater win — by double digits at Oregon — and is statistically comparable. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in whole effectivity and ranked within the prime six in each offensive and defensive efficiencies coming into Week 10. The committee additionally compares frequent opponents, and the Hoosiers had a traditionally giant margin of victory in opposition to Illinois, though Ohio State additionally gained with ease.
Have to know: The Buckeyes are trending in direction of the No. 1 seed on Choice Day in the event that they win the Large Ten, and meaning they might earn a first-round bye and play the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 first-round sport. Ohio State entered Saturday with one of the best probability within the nation to achieve the playoff (95.7%).
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes try to keep away from a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they might be right here: The Hoosiers earned their third highway win of the season on Saturday at Maryland, which is now a four-loss group. Indiana has been one of the vital dominant groups within the nation, no matter opponent, rating No. 2 within the nation in ESPN’s Recreation Management metric — second solely to Ohio State. Indiana’s nonconference lineup, although, does not embrace an opponent as spectacular as Texas. The Hoosiers beat Outdated Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State — the latter being a struggling FCS group. IU and Ohio State are very evenly matched statistically, however Ohio State entered Saturday with one of the best protection within the nation, holding opponents to six.88 factors per sport.
Why they might be greater: Indiana nonetheless owns among the best wins within the nation, beating Oregon 30-20 on Oct. 11 — and that is still a greater win than Ohio State’s win in opposition to Texas partly as a result of it was on the highway, but in addition as a result of the committee will probably have Oregon ranked forward of Texas on Tuesday. The Hoosiers entered Week 10 ranked No. 2 and with a slight edge over the No. 3 Buckeyes in ESPN’s Power of Report metric. The committee additionally compares frequent opponents and IU dominated Illinois, 63-10, whereas Ohio State gained, 34-16. The committee, although, does not incentivize operating up the rating, and something above three touchdowns or so is not incomes any bonus factors within the room.
Have to know: If the Hoosiers run the desk and play for the Large Ten championship, they need to be a CFP lock. Even when they lose within the title sport, the committee would probably hold them in rivalry for a top-four end and first-round bye.
Hardest remaining sport: There is not one. Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue every have not less than 5 losses, and the Hoosiers have not less than a 77% probability to win every of these video games.
Why they might be right here: If Georgia is a top-five group on Tuesday night time — and Notre Dame is hovering on the bubble — Alabama’s finest win would trump Texas A&M’s prime win in opposition to the Irish. Each had been shut video games on the highway. The larger distinction is that the Tide additionally earned wins in opposition to Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Tennessee, which ought to all be CFP prime 25 groups on Tuesday night time. Alabama ought to have 4 consecutive wins — from late September to mid-October — in opposition to groups the committee holds in excessive regard, together with two on the highway. Alabama has been a barely higher defensive group in opposition to extra elite competitors, rating No. 15 in defensive effectivity, whereas the Aggies are No. 18. Total, Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in whole effectivity, one other small edge over No. 10 Texas A&M.
Why they might be decrease: Some committee members may proceed to penalize Alabama for the season-opening loss to Florida State, which seems worse every week. Plus, the Aggies have not misplaced and are No. 1 in ESPN’s Power of Report metric.
Have to know: So what is the distinction between incomes the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed? The No. 3 seed faces the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 6 first-round sport. The No. 4 seed performs the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. The Sooners will probably be the final CFP prime 25 group Alabama faces throughout the common season.
Why they might be right here: The undefeated Aggies have among the best nonconference wins within the nation, a 41-40 win at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. The win in opposition to LSU is now … attention-grabbing? The Aggies earned a convincing 49-25 win in Baton Rouge, however LSU is a three-loss group that fired its head coach and athletic director. How the committee views LSU might be a think about the way it regards A&M’s résumé. Along with Notre Dame, Texas A&M’s wins in opposition to groups above .500 are LSU and Mississippi State. Each Texas A&M and Alabama have three highway wins every, however two of Bama’s (Georgia and Missouri) had been in opposition to ranked groups.
Why they might be greater: The Aggies are undefeated, ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Power of Report metric, and Alabama misplaced to a struggling Florida State group.
Have to know: The Aggies and Tide do not play one another throughout the common season, however are the more than likely matchup within the SEC championship sport, in line with ESPN Analytics. Texas A&M additionally does not play Georgia throughout the common season.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 28 at Texas.
Why they might be right here: The Bulldogs escaped a feisty Florida group in Jacksonville on Saturday to stay one of many committee’s prime one-loss contenders. The top-to-head SEC outcomes, although, will hold them sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia’s solely loss was by three factors at house to the Tide on Sept. 27, and its finest win was on Oct. 18 at house in opposition to Ole Miss. An time beyond regulation win at Tennessee can even assist separate Georgia from different one-loss contenders ranked decrease. And for as many questions as there have been about Georgia’s protection, Florida transformed simply 2 of 11 and had been 0-for-2 on fourth down.
Why they might be decrease: It will be troublesome for the committee to justify dropping Georgia beneath Ole Miss, which it beat, so long as their data are comparable. If there’s a knock on the Bulldogs, although, it has been the protection, which was No. 36 in effectivity coming into Saturday.
Have to know: Georgia entered Saturday with the third-best probability to achieve the SEC championship sport behind Alabama and Texas A&M, in line with ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Saturday and have now gained 4 straight video games to maintain their playoff hopes alive. They’re going to have a bye week to organize for the journey to Athens.
Why they might be right here: The Rebels struggled to include LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina early, however the protection swarmed Sellers within the fourth quarter and pulled away to probably stay one of many committee’s prime one-loss groups on Tuesday. Ole Miss will nonetheless be ranked behind Georgia due to the head-to-head highway loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s Power of Report metric. Their finest win was Oct. 25 at Oklahoma, and the lopsided win in opposition to two-loss Tulane continues to be respectable. A part of the committee’s analysis of Ole Miss will rely on how a lot they worth a win in opposition to three-loss LSU, which has since fired its coach and athletic director.
Why they might be decrease: BYU is undefeated and entered Week 10 ranked No. 9 in whole effectivity, whereas Ole Miss was No. 21. BYU was additionally No. 5 in Power of Report, a slight edge over No. 7 Ole Miss.
Have to know: Ole Miss entered November with a three-game stretch at house in opposition to unranked opponents, together with The Citadel of their subsequent sport. The Rebels’ finest alternatives to impress the choice committee are behind them, however so long as Ole Miss does not stumble, it should not impression their playoff standing. A foul loss, although, may name the Rebels’ résumé into query.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl is not a gimme, particularly because the Bulldogs have crept above .500. A loss may imply a first-round highway journey as a substitute of a house sport for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket completely.
Why they might be right here: The Cougars had a bye week however would be the committee’s lone undefeated Large 12 group to contemplate. BYU’s back-to-back wins in opposition to Utah and Iowa State are collectively higher than something undefeated Georgia Tech has on its résumé. Heading into Saturday, BYU was ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Power of Report metric, forward of No. 8 Georgia Tech. The extra obvious discrepancy is in energy of schedule, the place BYU was No. 49 and Georgia Tech was No. 83. Statistically, BYU and Georgia Tech have been extraordinarily even in most main classes, however the Cougars have finished it in opposition to higher competitors.
Why they might be decrease: The committee would talk about an FCS win in opposition to Portland State, and three wins in opposition to groups with dropping data — Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia.
Have to know: BYU and Texas Tech are the more than likely matchup within the Large 12 title sport, in line with ESPN Analytics, however they are going to first play one another in Lubbock, Texas, subsequent week. If BYU reaches the Large 12 title sport undefeated, it could nearly definitely earn an at-large bid as a one-loss runner-up if the Cougars did not win the title. If BYU loses to Texas Tech throughout the common season, however beats them within the Large 12 title sport, it is also nonetheless attainable they each get in if it is a shut sport. Even with a second loss, the Purple Raiders would be capable to declare a regular-season win in opposition to the Large 12 champs, which might be an enormous increase to their résumé within the committee assembly room.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. BYU had per week to organize, however the Purple Raiders are coming off a highway win at Kansas State.
Why they might be right here: The Geese might be one of many committee’s most attention-grabbing groups to debate as a result of they’ve performed nicely, however their finest win is … Sept. 13 at Northwestern — the one group they’ve crushed with a successful file. Coming into Saturday, Oregon’s opponents had a successful proportion of 47.9%, ranked No. 101 within the nation. In addition they have an FCS win in opposition to Montana State. The committee will probably nonetheless respect the Sept. 27 win at Penn State as a result of the Nittany Lions had head coach James Franklin, it was a hostile crowd atmosphere, and the group had but to come back unraveled. It nonetheless wasn’t a win in opposition to a playoff contender, although. Oregon misplaced to Indiana, one of the best group it has performed, by double digits at house.
Why they might be greater: Aside from the double time beyond regulation win at Penn State, Oregon has gained in convincing style all season. They entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in scoring protection (13.5 factors per sport) and No. 6 in factors per sport (41.25). The Geese even have among the best losses within the nation, because it might be to the committee’s No. 2 group, Indiana.
Have to know: Oregon has extra probabilities to impress the choice committee in November, with video games in opposition to Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all groups with successful data and doubtlessly ranked within the CFP prime 25. The committee does not venture forward, although, and Oregon had a Week 10 bye, so that is the résumé will probably be judged by on Tuesday.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have solely misplaced to Ohio State and on the highway in opposition to Michigan.
Why they might be right here: The Purple Raiders are clearly a proficient group — and is likely to be higher than undefeated BYU — however the loss at Arizona State will most likely hold them from climbing a lot greater within the preliminary rating. They do not have a lot to compensate for it, except for the 34-10 win at Utah on Sept. 20. Saturday’s win at Kansas State, although, was Texas Tech’s third Large 12 highway win. The committee will respect the Oct. 4 win at Houston, but it surely did not assist that the Cougars (7-2) misplaced to West Virginia on Saturday.
Why they might be decrease: The brutal nonconference lineup in opposition to FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State does not embrace any groups with successful data. The Purple Raiders entered Saturday No. 14 in ESPN’s Power of Report metric, and No. 60 in energy of schedule.
Have to know: If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday however nonetheless wins the Large 12, it is a CFP lock. The issue is that if the Purple Raiders lose a second convention sport, they’ll want some assist to achieve the Large 12 championship. So a loss to BYU might be devastating to their convention and CFP hopes. If the Purple Raiders beat BYU subsequent Saturday, however lose to them within the Large 12 championship sport, they might nonetheless have an opportunity at an at-large bid because the Large 12 runner-up. They might be capable to declare a win over the eventual Large 12 champs, which might be a much-needed increase to their résumé. It will rely partly on how the sport unfolded.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars are the one remaining opponent with a successful file, as Texas Tech ends the season in opposition to UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
Why they might be right here: The Irish have now gained six straight after their 0-2 begin and made a case for a top-10 rating — with the assistance of Miami, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt all presumably falling out. The top-to-head loss to Miami within the season-opener might be a dialogue level, but it surely’s certainly one of a number of tiebreakers and if the committee feels strongly that Notre Dame is now the higher group, it will possibly rank it as such. The Irish received off to a sluggish begin in opposition to Boston School on Saturday, however finally pulled away to keep away from elimination in opposition to a now 1-8 group. Notre Dame’s finest win is in opposition to USC, and it may have one other ranked opponent on its schedule if Pitt works its approach into the CFP prime 25 on Tuesday. Notre Dame travels to Pitt on Nov. 15. Notre Dame’s improved protection and powerful operating sport may assist increase the Irish right into a secure rating spot when it issues essentially the most.
Why they might be decrease: There might be committee members who nonetheless imagine strongly that Miami’s head-to-head win ought to hold the Canes ranked above the Irish whereas their data stay comparable.
Have to know: Notre Dame has not less than a 75% probability to win every of its remaining video games, in line with ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 at Pitt. If there is a entice sport remaining, that is it, as Pitt is an ACC group that has gained 5 straight video games. The Panthers even have a bye week to organize for this sport.
Why they might be right here: With its win in opposition to Vanderbilt — and Georgia Tech’s loss at NC State — the Longhorns are again within the dialog. Texas now has two wins in opposition to what needs to be CFP prime 25 groups in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and the season-opening loss at Ohio State is not going to harm the Longhorns within the eyes of the committee. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida is dangerous, however in contrast to Georgia Tech, the Longhorns have assertion wins to assist offset it. Texas has gained 4 straight video games since its loss to the Gators, and it has the head-to-head win in opposition to rival Oklahoma. That appears even higher after the Sooners beat Tennessee on the highway Saturday. Texas entered Week 10 ranked No. 13 in each ESPN’s Power of Report and energy of schedule metrics.
Why they might be decrease: The choice committee may additionally think about dropping Georgia Tech or Miami right here, or including Virginia into the combination. Some committee members may additionally give Oklahoma extra credit score for beating Tennessee on the highway than the Longhorns’ house win in opposition to Vandy. And very similar to the Miami-Notre Dame state of affairs, there might be individuals within the room who give much less weight to the head-to-head end result than different elements.
Have to know: If the playoff had been right now, Texas could be bumped out to make room for the ACC champion, which is now projected to be Virginia, which is ranked exterior of the committee’s projected prime 12. As a result of each the ACC champion and the Group of 5 champion are exterior of the highest 12, each the No. 11 and No. 12-ranked groups would get bumped out.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It is definitely not going to be straightforward to win at Georgia on Nov. 15, however the Longhorns can have a bye week to organize for it. A top-four rival on a Friday night time within the regular-season finale would be the second-best opponent Texas faces all season, the lone exception its season-opener in opposition to Ohio State.
Why they might be right here: The Sooners’ two losses had been to Texas and Ole Miss, each respectable losses to CFP prime 25 groups, and their win at Tennessee on Saturday was a much-needed increase to their résumé. The Week 2 win in opposition to Michigan, although, is without doubt one of the nation’s higher nonconference wins, and the Wolverines are 7-2 after having gained three straight video games. OU additionally entered Saturday ranked No. 22 in energy of schedule, and No. 16 in whole effectivity. The top-to-head loss, although, may hold them behind rival Texas.
Why they might be greater: The win at Tennessee was important, giving the Sooners a key SEC highway win in opposition to a ranked opponent. The committee would additionally think about the hand harm to John Mateer within the Texas sport, as he returned for the primary time that day 17 days after having hand surgical procedure and threw three interceptions. The query is that if it could be sufficient of an element together with the Sooners’ résumé to look previous the head-to-head end result.
Have to know: If the playoff had been right now, Oklahoma could be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked convention champion, which is assured a spot within the 12-team subject. Proper now that group — Memphis because the projected American champion — could be ranked exterior the highest 12.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners have a bye week to organize for it, however might be in a must-win state of affairs in Tuscaloosa.
Bracket
Based mostly on the rankings above, the seeding could be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Large Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Large 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal video games
On the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Introduced by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State