Rating 80 males’s NCAA basketball groups by March Insanity potential

Greater than six months in the past, Walter Clayton Jr. received Most Excellent Participant honors on some of the thrilling runs to the nationwide championship since Kemba Walker led UConn in 2011. The Florida Gators weren’t seen as a top-tier crew coming into final season, although, checking in at twenty first within the preseason AP ballot and twenty fourth in final 12 months’s model of those tiers.

Issues can change shortly in school basketball, which suggests, like final season’s champions, among the following groups can be in a unique tier by the tip of 2025-26. Nonetheless, we’ve ordered 80 of the game’s 365 Division I groups into tiers by their NCAA event possibilities.

Sure, there are clear championship and Closing 4 contenders (newsflash: Duke can be good once more). However there are additionally groups with second-weekend potential that might fall to the bubble (Auburn has misplaced lots of expertise and a head coach), possible bubble groups that might pull off an upset (Washington is intriguing), groups transferring within the fallacious route, groups able to take a step (or two) ahead — and the whole lot in between.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf manage the chaos of that big selection of potential outcomes by sorting 80 noteworthy applications into 10 tiers because the Nov. 3 season tipoff attracts nearer.

Leap to:
Title favorites | Closing 4 contenders | Second-weekend threats | Can go dancing | Potential bid thieves | ¯_(ツ)_/¯ | Test again subsequent 12 months | Comeback children | 2 outliers | Cinderellas

Tier I: Nationwide championship favorites

Purdue Boilermakers
Florida Gators
Houston Cougars
UConn Huskies

These had been the 4 groups that acquired first-place votes within the preseason AP ballot and the 4 atop ESPN’s preseason high 25. In different phrases: These are your nationwide title favorites coming into the season.

Purdue is eyeing its first nationwide championship, led by Picket Award favourite Braden Smith and fellow potential All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn — the very best inside-outside duo within the nation. Two different starters additionally return for Matt Painter, who then added double-double machine Oscar Cluff from the switch portal plus extremely regarded worldwide prospect Omer Mayer.

Florida is a professional menace to go back-to-back, particularly with the best way Todd Golden completed his reloading efforts final spring. The Gators changed do-everything NCAA event hero Clayton with Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, two high-level offensive guards with actual playmaking chops when the ball is of their arms. In addition they return the very best frontcourt within the nation, headlined by Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon.

After falling devastatingly brief within the title recreation final April, Houston will look to complete the job this season. The Cougars had been in a position to hold Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler at school, and they’re bringing in three top-25 recruits as reinforcements. It’d take a while for the newcomers to stand up to hurry on enjoying Kelvin Sampson-coached protection, however we’ve religion they are going to be there in March.

Rounding out the highest tier is UConn, which took an inevitable step again final season after successful back-to-back nationwide championships in 2023 and 2024. However Dan Hurley and the Huskies are poised for a return to the nationwide title dialogue. Tarris Reed Jr. is again down low, and the trio of Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban is nearly as good because it will get from an offensive and taking pictures perspective. The addition of Silas Demary Jr. ought to resolve their level guard points. — Borzello

Tier II: Closing 4 contenders

BYU Cougars
St. John’s Pink Storm
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
Duke Blue Devils
Kentucky Wildcats
Texas Tech Pink Raiders
Arkansas Razorbacks

Each crew on this listing has the potential to maneuver into the nationwide title dialog with the correct mix of chemistry and execution. That begins with BYU, which owned the nation’s greatest offense within the final two months of 2024-25 as this system reached the Candy 16 in Kevin Younger’s first 12 months on the helm. Now, the Cougars have added AJ Dybantsa, a five-star prospect who has his sights set on the No. 1 spot within the 2026 NBA Draft.

Additionally in that race for the highest general decide is Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, the chief of a Blue Devils crew with ESPN’s high 2025 recruiting class. Ten years in the past, a equally youthful and gifted Duke squad captured the ultimate nationwide title of Mike Krzyzewski’s reign.

Texas Tech and Michigan are led by preseason All-Individuals — JT Toppin and Yaxel Lendeborg, respectively — following second-weekend runs a season in the past. St. John’s has arguably the strongest switch class within the nation, a bunch that may change into much more compelling if former All-Large East ahead Bryce Hopkins regains his previous kind after battling accidents. And Kentucky spent thousands and thousands so as to add expertise across the SEC Preseason Participant of the Yr Otega Oweh, headlined by Arizona State switch and projected top-five decide Jayden Quaintance, whose anticipated return to the court docket later this season after struggling an ACL tear in February may elevate the Wildcats into the title favorites tier.

Lastly, Louisville (Mikel Brown Jr.) and Arkansas (Darius Acuff Jr.) have added a pair of dynamic guards with NBA desires. — Medcalf

Tier III: Second-weekend threats

Arizona Wildcats
Illinois Preventing Illini
UCLA Bruins
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
Iowa State Cyclones
Auburn Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
Tennessee Volunteers
Kansas Jayhawks
Creighton Bluejays
Michigan State Spartans

These groups have a pair extra query marks than the tier above, however historical past suggests just a few will play themselves into the Closing 4 dialogue and a top-five rank in some unspecified time in the future this season.

Arizona and Illinois are loaded with various kinds of expertise. Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd will rely closely on five-star freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries, whereas Illinois’ Brad Underwood went the abroad route so as to add 5 gamers with Balkan ties to the rotation. How shortly the newcomers stand up to hurry can be key for each applications.

Maybe essentially the most fascinating crew on this tier is Auburn, which had a seismic teaching change when Bruce Pearl retired because the Tigers’ head coach solely six weeks earlier than tipoff, passing the reigns to his son Steven. Tahaad Pettiford is likely one of the most electrical level guards within the nation, whereas Keyshawn Corridor and KeShawn Murphy are confirmed high-major transfers.

Just a few of those groups are extra accustomed to larger ranks, two of which is able to lean on incoming top-five recruits. Kansas will look to bounce again from back-to-back disappointing seasons, as Invoice Self welcomes Darryn Peterson, one other potential No. 1 decide subsequent June. And Tennessee loses 5 of its high scorers however brings in star freshman Nate Ament and Maryland switch Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Now the query is whether or not Rick Barnes can get the Vols to take care of the degrees of elite protection from the previous six seasons.

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Vols’ Rick Barnes explains how fashion of play has modified

Tennessee’s Barnes describes how he has seen completely different programs by his profession and goes again within the vault to implement these types into his crew immediately.

Then there’s Michigan State, which brings 4 rotation gamers again from a crew that received 30 video games and a Large Ten regular-season title. If coach Tom Izzo can discover a difference-maker on the perimeter amongst his newcomers, this tier can be one too low for Sparty. — Borzello

Tier IV: Can win a event recreation

North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
Oregon Geese
USC Trojans
San Diego State Aztecs
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Missouri Tigers
Virginia Cavaliers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Cincinnati Bearcats
Ole Miss Rebels

For some applications, inclusion on this tier will look like a letdown. For others, successful an NCAA event recreation would imply a profitable season. The latter group begins with Will Wade and NC State. A season after the Wolfpack received simply 12 video games, Wade takes over the helm with a brand new roster led by Darrion Williams — one of many high accessible transfers who starred for Texas Tech within the Elite Eight — in a debut season that might yield rapid outcomes.

Iowa additionally falls underneath that banner. New Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum and final season’s Missouri Valley Convention Participant of the Yr Bennett Stirtz are at their third cease collectively following profitable campaigns at Drake and Northwest Missouri State. NCAA event victories for Texas (first season with Sean Miller), Virginia (first season for Ryan Odom) and Ohio State (Jake Diebler’s second full season) would even be celebrated as constructive steps underneath new management.

The identical cannot be stated for North Carolina. The Tar Heels touchdown on this tier would have appeared blasphemous just a few years in the past, however after they stumbled into final season’s NCAA event and Hubert Davis’ job standing turned the topic of hot-seat discuss, a event victory might be the one option to stabilize this program. If it occurs, five-star recruit Caleb Wilson will possible play a job in that mission.

Cincinnati’s Wes Miller may maintain off additional buzz a few regime change with an NCAA event victory. And Baylor, Oregon, USC and San Diego State must regroup to win massive after dropping expertise to the portal. However Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou (No. 9 within the SC Subsequent 100); Oregon’s Nate Bittle and Jackson Shelstad (All-Large Ten preseason choices); USC’s Rodney Rice (13.8 PPG at Maryland final season); and San Diego State’s Miles Byrd (second-team All-Mountain West in 2024-25) ought to give these 4 applications an opportunity to advance. — Medcalf

Tier V: Harmful bubble groups

Indiana Hoosiers
Texas A&M Aggies
Notre Dame Preventing Irish
SMU Mustangs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Vanderbilt Commodores
Marquette Golden Eagles
Washington Huskies
Kansas State Wildcats
Georgia Bulldogs
VCU Rams
Boise State Broncos
Utah State Aggies
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This listing is a combination. New coaches have modified the fortunes of choose groups, whereas star energy is the explanation for hype round the remainder.

Tucker DeVries performed solely a handful of video games at West Virginia final season, however the two-time Missouri Valley Convention Participant of the Yr adopted his father, new Indiana head coach Darian DeVries, to Bloomington. The Hoosiers misplaced 5 gamers who averaged a minimum of 9.0 factors final season however may nonetheless be a bubble menace in DeVries’ first 12 months on the helm after regrouping round his son, a possible All-American.

Bucky McMillan has an intriguing group for his first season at Texas A&M, too. On paper, a roster that includes Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech), Jacari Lane (North Alabama) and Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana) — all transfers who averaged double figures at their applications final season — ought to be squarely on the bubble with the potential for extra if the Aggies develop the appropriate chemistry.

Second-team All-American P.J. Haggerty’s determination to switch from Memphis to Kansas State was arguably the largest portal transfer of the spring. He and Notre Dame’s Markus Burton, a second-team All-ACC performer final season, can be difference-makers for groups trying to flip the script after sub-.500 campaigns. If the Wildcats and Preventing Irish make the NCAA event, few opponents would have gamers extra succesful than these two dynamic guards.

Utah State’s Mason Falslev (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 39% 3P%) and Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard (18.9 PPG, 3.1 APG) are two of the nation’s high gamers on groups that received 20-plus video games and reached the NCAA event in 2024-25. Their squads have misplaced key gamers, however it would not be shocking in the event that they moved up a tier by the tip of the season.

Washington might be essentially the most intriguing crew on this listing. Danny Sprinkle’s crew completed 13-18 final season regardless of touchdown top-ranked gamers within the switch portal. But, the arrival and return of Wesley Yates III (redshirted for the Huskies in 2023-24 earlier than transferring to USC in 2024-25) and the addition of his former Trojans teammate Desmond Claude (15.8 PPG) means the Huskies have the look of a harmful bubble crew. — Medcalf

Tier VI: Complete rebuild = ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Miami Hurricanes
Maryland Terrapins
Villanova Wildcats
Xavier Musketeers
West Virginia Mountaineers

Even on this period of the switch portal and widespread attrition, it stands out when new coaches take over applications with a totally clear slate. Miami, Maryland and West Virginia returned zero gamers, whereas Villanova welcomed again one participant plus a redshirt and Xavier did not return anybody who performed a minute of final season.

Miami and first-year head coach Jai Lucas have essentially the most cause for optimism amongst that group. The Hurricanes opted for a stability of freshmen, transfers and worldwide additions — and there is loads of intrigue surrounding the arrival of high-major transfers Malik Reneau (Indiana), Tre Donaldson (Michigan) and Ernest Udeh (TCU), in addition to potential one-and-done freshman Shelton Henderson.

New Maryland head coach Buzz Williams has had success at each program he has led, successful NCAA event video games with three completely different colleges. Can he make it 4? Just a few gamers adopted him from Texas A&M, and he introduced in three different transfers who averaged double-figure scoring.

Kevin Willard (Villanova) and Richard Pitino (Xavier) positioned a heavy emphasis on the portal after taking on their respective Large East applications, however essentially the most particular person buzz surrounds Wildcats freshman guard Acaden Lewis, a top-35 recruit who ought to have the ball in his arms a ton this season.

West Virginia will hope Ross Hodge can deliver some stability to this system after biking by three completely different head coaches up to now three seasons. He has coached high-level defenses at North Texas and can hope North Dakota switch Treysen Eaglestaff — who scored a Summit League-record 51 factors in final season’s convention event — carries issues on the offensive finish. — Borzello

Tier VII: Backward step looms?

Clemson Tigers
Memphis Tigers
Saint Mary’s Gaels
New Mexico Lobos
Colorado State Rams
George Mason Patriots

This tier represents the flip facet of the switch portal increase higher-ranked groups will profit from this season. Final season, this group of groups mixed to win 165 whole video games, and 5 of the six reached the NCAA event. Now, all of them enter this season with decrease expectations after dropping key gamers who helped their respective applications attain these heights.

We’ll by no means know whether or not Penny Hardaway would have prolonged the very best season of his tenure at Memphis — 29 wins en path to the American Athletic Convention regular-season and event titles — had Tyrese Hunter been wholesome within the postseason. With Hunter, Haggerty and two different gamers who averaged double figures final season gone, the Tigers may have a rocky path forward. The identical goes for Clemson, which misplaced All-ACC choice Chase Hunter and the complete beginning 5 from a crew that earned a 5-seed final March.

In the meantime, within the Mountain West, New Mexico head coach Richard Pitino left for Xavier and the Lobos’ main scorer, Donovan Dent, transferred to UCLA. Nique Clifford (18.9 PPG), who helped Colorado State attain the second spherical of the NCAA event, moved on to the NBA, whereas his head coach, Niko Medved, left for Minnesota. Each runs had been enjoyable whereas they lasted.

A step backward for Saint Mary’s calls for some context: Randy Bennett hasn’t received fewer than 20 video games in a season that wasn’t impacted by the pandemic since 2006-07, however WCC Participant of the Yr Augustas Marčiulionis is gone, and one other 29-win season and second-round journey might be out of attain in 2025-26. — Medcalf

Tier VIII: The (potential) comeback children

Syracuse Orange
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Georgetown Hoyas
Virginia Tech Hokies
LSU Tigers

In terms of pure expertise, Syracuse is in nice form. The Orange introduced again preseason All-ACC choice J.J. Starling and former top-10 recruit Donnie Freeman, and so they added Georgia Tech switch Naithan George — some of the coveted level guards within the portal — and a pair of top-35 recruits, together with Kiyan Anthony, Carmelo’s son.

On the floor, successful 21 video games and the Faculty Basketball Crown is nothing to bounce again from. However Nebraska did not make the Large Ten event after dropping 5 in a row to finish the common season, and the return of Rienk Mast can be impactful after the All-Large Ten choice missed final season due to a knee harm. 4 different gamers who began video games for the Cornhuskers in 2024-25 are additionally again.

Virginia Tech is a possible NCAA event crew. Neoklis Avdalas ought to be among the best worldwide gamers in school, and head coach Mike Younger is excessive on West Virginia switch Amani Hansberry. Throw within the return of NBA prospect Tobi Lawal and three different rotation gamers, and this crew has the potential to maneuver up within the ACC standings.

Ed Cooley took Georgetown from a 9-23 document (2-18 within the Large East) in Yr 1 to 18-16 (8-12) in Yr 2 — and the Hoyas are able to take one other leap underneath his management. Cooley signed six energy convention transfers, led by former Arizona guard KJ Lewis, and welcomes again start line guard Malik Mack. These two ought to kind among the best backcourts within the Large East.

LSU, alternatively, is in a troublesome spot. Matt McMahon’s crew went 3-15 within the SEC final season, so there’s loads of room to enhance. However in a convention that despatched a document 14 groups to the NCAA event final season, there’s additionally a fairly difficult-to-crack ceiling with out dramatic enchancment. That stated, the incoming switch class is gifted and may proper the ship. — Borzello

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Matt McMahon expresses confidence in LSU’s returners and transfers

McMahon shares his imaginative and prescient whereas describing the Tigers’ portal additions and lists a number of returners he believes are on the verge of breakout seasons.

Tier IX: Two groups we pounded the desk for

Borzello: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I went backwards and forwards between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, however expectations for the Hokies appear larger, so I will go along with the Yellow Jackets. Merely put, being picked thirteenth within the preseason ACC ballot appears low for the expertise coach Damon Stoudamire has on his roster this season. It is a crew that racked up wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson in 2023-24, then completed .500 general and within the ACC final season.

In Stoudamire’s third season, can Tech take the following step? It begins on the inside with preseason second-team All-ACC choice Baye Ndongo and potential one-and-done freshman Mouhamed Sylla. Ndongo has been one of many extra productive bigs within the league the previous two seasons, and Sylla is a rim-running, shot-blocking extraordinaire with explosiveness.

Returnees Jaeden Mustaf and Kowacie Reeves Jr., together with redshirt freshman Dyllan Thompson and Miami Ohio switch Kam Craft, all deliver measurement on the wings. The important thing to Tech’s season will come on the level guard spot, the place Stoudamire will depend on Pacific switch Lamar Washington. He is 6-foot-5 however can actually go and brings two-way capacity.

I would not go as far as to say Tech is a surefire event crew, however with the dimensions the Jackets have all through the roster, and Ndongo and Sylla starring down low, they will not be overmatched in any recreation. I like them to be within the bubble dialog come February.

Medcalf: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Former Minnesota head coach Ben Johnson had the whole lot you’ll suppose a head coach would want to get correct help from a faculty. He performed highschool basketball and soccer in Minneapolis, was a star for Minnesota in school, then frolicked as an assistant underneath Richard Pitino earlier than succeeding him. However Johnson finally landed the Gophers’ head teaching gig amid essentially the most turbulent time in current school basketball historical past, and the varsity and its boosters failed to supply the NIL help they wanted to compete.

In contrast, Niko Medved — additionally a Minneapolis native — navigated these challenges at a program (Colorado State) that had extra useful resource limitations than Minnesota. He understands this panorama and program. And he has assembled a crew stuffed with underdogs, together with former North Carolina reserve Cade Tyson.

That is the place the portal is a plus for a coach like Medved: this crew would not know or care in regards to the previous at Minnesota, they simply need to win. And Medved has received 20 or extra video games in 5 of the previous six seasons, reaching the NCAA event 3 times throughout that stretch, too. The Gophers, in the meantime, have only one successful season in that very same span. Medved may make an instantaneous influence at Minnesota.

Tier X: Potential March Cinderellas

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Towson Tigers
Yale Bulldogs
Excessive Level Panthers
Liberty Flames
Vermont Catamounts
Chattanooga Mocs
Illinois State Redbirds
Siena Saints

We want one or two of those groups to deliver chaos to the bracket in March. The 2025 NCAA event noticed no groups decrease than a 12-seed pull off a first-round upset and no mid-major groups advance to the Candy 16. Will any of those groups finish that development in just a few months?

There are 4 leagues that ought to produce a first-round upset menace: the CAA, Missouri Valley, SoCon and Large West. We included each UNCW and Towson from the CAA (Charleston is not far behind), however the different three all have groups value watching that did not fairly make the minimize right here. We went with Illinois State and its 4 returning starters within the Valley, however Northern Iowa and Bradley ought to be proper there. Chattanooga edged out Furman within the SoCon for us, whereas UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine ought to each be elements out of the Large West. UConn switch Aidan Mahaney ought to be some of the impactful “transfer-down” gamers within the nation for UCSB.

They do not have essentially the most built-for-March roster, however Liberty might be the very best crew from a one-bid league in the course of the common season. The Flames received Convention USA in 2024-25, and Ritchie McKay welcomes again a number of of their key gamers. Three returning starters, together with all-league ahead Zach Cleveland, cleared the path, and former Minnesota ahead Isaiah Ihnen is wholesome after enjoying simply 9 video games and averaging double-figures in his first season with the Flames.

Yale and Vermont are bracket staples, though John Becker and the Catamounts had a “down season” in 2024-25, ending second within the America East. James Jones and the Bulldogs lose stars John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng however may nonetheless have the very best participant within the Ivy League in ahead Nick Townsend.

Lastly, we went with a deep sleeper as our ultimate crew on this tier. Siena went simply 14-18 general and 11th of September within the MAAC in Gerry McNamara’s first season, however that was a 10-win enchancment on the Saints’ 2023-24 marketing campaign. They return three starters, led by all-league guard Justice Shoats, and 6 rotation gamers. Freshman Christian Jones must also make an instantaneous influence along with his velocity and playmaking. — Borzello