The indicators are in all places. It is lastly hoodie climate within the Midwest. We’re on the point of argue over again about daylight saving time and whether or not sweet corn is nice. (It’s! I do not like that it’s, however it’s.) That is proper: It is nearly November. And November is faculty soccer’s biggest month.
We enter this November with way more uncertainty within the air than common. Positive, it nearly actually appears to be like like Ohio State and Indiana will vacuum up two of the 12 School Soccer Playoff slots, with Oregon probably nabbing a 3rd. The highest-heavy Large Ten ought to proceed to fend off any of the “Has parity taken over faculty soccer?” speak en vogue for the time being. However in all places else, it is nothing however uncertainty so far as the attention can see.
We all know the SEC ought to land fairly a number of CFP bids, however we don’t know who will seize them. (Okay, we’ve some thought, however not lots!) We thought the ACC (Miami) and Large 12 (Texas Tech) each had groups able to charging to 12-0 and straightforward CFP bids, however Miami and Texas Tech misplaced final week. So did Memphis, which plunged the American Convention race into chaos. And have you ever appeared on the Heisman betting recently? It appears like we nonetheless have some main plot twists to return with that.
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 30 groups with at the least a ten% probability at a playoff bid. Most of what is forward seems unsettled, so let’s attempt to make some sense of it. Listed below are the ten FBS races I am most wanting ahead to as hoodie climate — the greatest climate — additional takes over our world.
1. SEC title race
Per SP+, we head into Week 9 with eight groups clinging to at the least a 5% probability of profitable the league title: Alabama (25.8%), Texas A&M (17.6%), Georgia (13.9%), Oklahoma (10.4%), Texas (7.7%), Missouri (7.4%), Ole Miss (7.1%) and Vanderbilt (5.5%). All of them have both zero (Bama and A&M) or one convention loss, and there are eight remaining video games between them over the following six weeks, together with two potential elimination video games in Week 9 (Ole Miss at Oklahoma and Missouri at Vanderbilt).
I can let you know what number of totally different groups have an opportunity, but it surely’s onerous not to think about Alabama because the front-runner. The Crimson Tide moved to 4-0 in SEC play final week with a 37-20 win over Tennessee, and so they’ve now performed 4 of the 5 greatest opponents on their convention schedule. They’re solely as much as ninth in SP+, nevertheless, thanks primarily to statistically subpar performances in wins over Georgia and Missouri (and, in fact, the season-opening dud in opposition to Florida State, an more and more inexplicable consequence). Meaning their remaining video games in opposition to LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn are projected as one-score affairs. Their spot in Atlanta is not a gimme simply but. Nonetheless, wins are wins, and so they’re in nice form.
Even when we give one title sport spot to Bama, the race for the opposite spot is fairly fascinating. Will Georgia proceed to identify opponents multiscore leads earlier than scraping their means again? How a lot will the Bulldogs’ loss to Bama damage them in potential tiebreaker eventualities? Can unbeaten Texas A&M proceed charging forward because the schedule ramps up with journeys to LSU, Missouri and Texas? (You possibly can inform me proper now that the Aggies went 0-3 or 3-0 in these journeys and I might consider you, no questions requested.) Can Ole Miss clear this week’s hurdle in Norman and benefit from a fairly mild residence stretch? Is Oklahoma actually a contender with 5 remaining top-20 opponents (per SP+)? I am barely frightened about overbilling this race when the most definitely consequence appears to be one more Bama-Georgia title sport. However there’s nonetheless a lot of potential weirdness on the desk. That additionally means the jockeying for the opposite SEC playoff spots shall be fascinating.
Key upcoming video games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), Vanderbilt at Texas (Week 10), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Texas at Georgia (Week 12), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Texas A&M at Texas (Week 14)
2. American Convention title race
Out-of-nowhere upsets have despatched convention title races in surprising instructions since conferences first got here into existence, and few had been as surprising as Memphis’ 24-21 defeat at UAB final week. The Blazers had simply fired coach Trent Dilfer, and Memphis was a greater than three-touchdown favourite. The Tigers entered the sport with a 43% probability of constructing the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. These odds are actually 11%.
Memphis’ loss is our acquire. SP+ now offers 5 groups between a 12% and 24% probability of profitable the American Convention: USF (24.4%), North Texas (22.6%), Memphis (19.4%), Navy (17.3%) and Tulane (12.7%). USF, Navy and Tulane are unbeaten in convention play, and Navy is unbeaten general because of a few slim wins in its previous two video games. However Navy and Tulane have needed to pull off escapes in current weeks and have fallen out of the SP+ high 50. USF has made a pleasant ascent since a humiliating 49-12 loss to Miami, however the Bulls should play at Memphis and Navy within the coming weeks. In the event that they beat Memphis on Saturday, their spot within the American Convention title sport begins to look safe. However a Memphis win would enhance Memphis’ personal odds and people of North Texas.
Key upcoming video games: USF at Memphis (Week 9), Navy at North Texas (Week 10), Tulane at Memphis (Week 11), USF at Navy (Week 12), Navy at Memphis (Week 14)
3. The present hierarchy of one-loss groups
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From a School Soccer Playoff perspective, that is an important race. Nevertheless it’s additionally the blurriest. If we assume that the Group of 5 finally ends up with simply one of many 12 spots within the CFP — not a assure (since we might nonetheless theoretically find yourself with a very low-ranked Large 12 or ACC champion), however probably — then that leaves 11 spots for the 4 energy conferences. Amongst power-conference groups, SP+ projections recommend a mean of 5.1 will find yourself 11-1 or 12-0 heading into championship weekend, probably from this pile:
Odds of ending 11-1 or higher (power-conference groups solely): Ohio State 90.1%, Indiana 87.8%, Georgia Tech 49.6%, Texas Tech 46.2%, Oregon 33.1%, Miami 27.5%, BYU 27.3%, Louisville 22.3%, Georgia 16.5%, Ole Miss 16.1%, Alabama 14.9%, Virginia 12.4%.
If we assume for a second that 5 or so of these groups will make the sector of 12 as they did final yr — once more, not assured however fairly probably — that leaves about six spots for multiloss groups, probably from the Large Ten and SEC.
It is unattainable to know the place every potential multiloss workforce may stand six weeks from now, after we do not know who they could have crushed or misplaced to — or how the CFP committee will, after stress, deal with variations in energy of schedule — however let’s lay out the place their résumés at present stand by combining Power of Document and Résumé SP+ into one résumé rating.
Present computer-based résumé rankings:
Indiana (7-0)
Ohio State (7-0)
Texas A&M (7-0)
Oregon (6-1)
Alabama (6-1)
BYU (7-0)
Georgia (6-1)
Georgia Tech (7-0)
Oklahoma (6-1)*
Miami (5-1)
Texas Tech (6-1)*
Vanderbilt (6-1)
Ole Miss (6-1)
Notre Dame (5-2)
Missouri (6-1)
(* Since Texas Tech’s lone loss got here with out injured beginning quarterback Behren Morton, it might get some good thing about the doubt from the committee. And the way may the committee deal with Oklahoma’s loss to Texas contemplating John Mateer had rushed again from harm?)
Amongst present one-loss groups, it appears Oregon, Alabama and Georgia are in fine condition to deal with one other defeat with playoff standing intact. However the variety of different spots out there might rely on the groups in Provo and Atlanta. BYU and Georgia Tech stay unbeaten, and if both workforce will get to championship weekend at 12-0, it will likely be in it doesn’t matter what occurs within the respective convention title video games. That is not notably probably — BYU should journey to Iowa State (Week 9), Texas Tech (Week 11) and Cincinnati (Week 13), whereas Georgia Tech finishes in opposition to a torrid Pitt (Week 13) and Georgia (Week 14) — but it surely stays on the desk.
In the meantime, the hierarchy of groups ranked ninth to fifteenth above tells us fairly a bit. Two-loss Notre Dame clearly wants a bit little bit of assist, however contemplating there are head-to-heads between No. 9 and 13 and No. 10 and 15 this week, the Combating Irish will probably transfer up a few spots regardless of being on a bye week. Their strength-of-schedule numbers will solely worsen from right here, nevertheless, so they should maintain wanting the half as they’ve in current weeks.
Key upcoming video games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 9), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Week 14)
4. ACC title race
Georgia Tech barely survived at Wake Forest and wanted some purple zone implosions from Duke — together with a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return — to outlive in Durham on Saturday. However once more, wins are wins, and the Yellow Jackets have seven from seven video games.
The Jackets are 4-0 in ACC play, so that they have their noses out in entrance within the convention title race. Nonetheless, there are seven groups with at the least a 7% probability on the league crown proper now: Georgia Tech (26.9%), Louisville (16.8%), Miami (13.4%), Virginia (12.9%), SMU (12.9%), Pitt (8.3%) and Duke (7.3%). Contemplating the closeness of the video games that we have already seen between these groups, that makes fairly a little bit of sense.
By way of the amount of groups concerned, this race might have ranked larger on the listing. However by some means we’ve solely 5 extra remaining video games between these seven groups. This race might be determined as a lot by who avoids surprising upsets as something. With just one workforce actually standing out from a high quality perspective — Miami is thirteenth in SP+, and the opposite six contenders are between twenty fourth and forty fourth — upsets are someplace between conceivable and fairly probably.
Key upcoming video games: Miami at SMU (Week 10), Virginia at Duke (Week 12), Pitt at Georgia Tech (Week 13), Louisville at SMU (Week 13), Miami at Pitt (Week 14)
5. The cost to 6-6
We’re always advised that there are too many bowls and that they do not imply what they used to. And but, one of the vital pleasant storylines in a given season comes when a down-on-its-luck program makes a run at bowl eligibility. Listed below are a few of the extra fascinating names which have a shot on the postseason in 2025:
Northwestern Wildcats (5-2 file, 80.7% probability at bowl eligibility per SP+): The Wildcats have bowled solely as soon as previously 4 seasons, and so they stumbled out of the gate with a dire 23-3 loss to Tulane in Week 1. However they’ve gained 4 in a row to get to the precipice, and whereas they’re projected underdogs in every remaining sport, they will in all probability snag at the least one minor upset.
Temple Owls (5-2, 77.4%): One among my favourite tales of the season. Temple went simply 13-42 from 2020 to 2024 however made a knockout rent by bringing veteran Ok.C. Keeler to city. Final Saturday’s blowout of Charlotte introduced the Owls to 5 wins, and so they’re favorites at Tulsa this weekend. (If they do not beat Tulsa, nevertheless, issues may get a bit bit dicey, as they’re at the least slight underdogs in every remaining sport.)
New Mexico Lobos (4-3, 76.0%): Jason Eck’s Lobos had been pains in Michigan’s neck in Week 1 and pummeled UCLA in Week 3. Losses at San José State and Boise State damage, however so long as they deal with their enterprise at residence in opposition to Utah State and Colorado State, they’re set.
Wyoming Cowboys (3-4, 37.6%): After stumbling to 3-9 in Jay Sawvel’s first season as Craig Bohl’s successor, the Cowboys have performed some entertaining video games of late, and their 35-28 win over San José State in Week 7 saved bowl hopes alive. Their odds would hop to round 50-50 with a win over Colorado State on Saturday.
Ball State Cardinals (3-4, 20.7%): The Cardinals slipped from 5-7 to 4-8 to 3-9 over Mike Neu’s last three seasons, and so they’ve suffered three huge blowouts this yr below Mike Uremovich. However their 3-0 residence file has purchased them time, and a win at 1-6 Northern Illinois on Saturday would maintain hope alive.
New Mexico State Aggies (3-3, 43.3%): NMSU is not notably sturdy (122nd in SP+) and simply fell to Missouri State at residence, however Convention USA affords loads of video games in opposition to equally iffy applications. They’ve just one certain loss (at Tennessee) remaining on the schedule. They’re within the hunt.
Delaware Blue Hens (3-3, 78.0%) and Missouri State Bears (3-3, 44.5%): The FBS newcomers will need assistance, as they are not robotically eligible and would solely get bowl bids if there aren’t sufficient bowl-eligible groups to fill all of the slots. Proper now it appears to be like like there in all probability shall be. Nonetheless, the Blue Hens and Bears have slot in nicely in CUSA. Delaware has a 14% probability of ending 8-4 or higher, which is at all times a hell of an accomplishment for a beginner.
6. Convention USA title race
Sure, there’s a number of useless weight on this convention, however a decent race is a decent race, and heading into Week 9, 4 groups had between a 20% and 23% title probability — Jacksonville State (22.7%), Louisiana Tech (21.7%), Western Kentucky (21.0%) and Kennesaw State (20.7%) — with a fifth contender (Liberty) at 8.6%.
On Tuesday, Western Kentucky knocked off Louisiana Tech in a real game-of-the-week candidate, whereas Kennesaw State pulled away from Florida Worldwide. That can shift the percentages in these groups’ favor, however with a lot evenness on this convention, benefits will probably shift once more within the coming weeks. Kennesaw State’s presence within the race makes issues much more enjoyable; the Owls face-planted with a 2-10 FBS debut final season, however below Jerry Mack they practically beat Wake Forest in Week 1 and have gained 5 straight.
Key upcoming video games: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Week 12), Liberty at Louisiana Tech (Week 13), Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Week 14), Kennesaw State at Liberty (Week 14)
7. Heisman race
First it was Texas’ Arch Manning and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Then LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Then Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Oregon’s Dante Moore had his flip on the high of the listing. Miami’s Carson Beck was up there. The mantle of Heisman Favourite has been a scorching potato this season. Nobody has held on to it for very lengthy.
After the previous few weeks of motion, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza shining for an unbeaten workforce, Ty Simpson offering a sluggish drip of heroics throughout Bama’s run of 4 straight ranked wins and Julian Sayin finishing what appears like 100% of his (principally secure) passes in opposition to principally overwhelmed opposition, we head into Week 9 with a transparent higher tier within the race.
Present ESPN BET Heisman odds: Mendoza +300, Simpson +350, Sayin +400, Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed +1100, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia +1400, Moore +1800, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton +1800, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love +2000, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith +3500, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss +3500.
If that is the favorites listing we find yourself with, so be it. On the finish of championship weekend, Mendoza, Simpson and Sayin ought to all have between 3,300 and three,600 passing yards with about 33 to 39 touchdowns. Strong work. However in the event you’re a believer in “Heisman Moments,” they may not have many marquee alternatives between now and the convention title video games. The door might be open to Pavia or Reed, in the event that they proceed main their respective groups to unexpected heights. Possibly Stockton retains bailing his workforce out with fourth-quarter heroics. Possibly Love produces a pair extra 200-yard speeding video games and captures the creativeness. Possibly within the lack of some apparent 4,000-yard passer, typical knowledge begins to residence in on a defensive participant like Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. or Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. This is able to be a enjoyable yr for a change-of-pace decide. Regardless, I do not really feel like our present favorites listing is sort of what we’ll have a month from now.
8. MAC title race
There are at present 5 groups with between a 12% and 25% probability of profitable the league — Western Michigan (24.6%), Toledo (19.1%), Miami (Ohio) (19.1%), Buffalo (18.7%) and Ohio (12.3%) — and Miami performs each workforce on the listing apart from itself. The RedHawks might play for the crown themselves, however both means they will straight determine who will get to play for it. They host smoking-hot Western Michigan this weekend, then play a fellow contender in every of the primary three weeks of November’s midweek MACtion slate.
Miami and Western Michigan have every rebounded from 0-3 begins to now stand at 4-3. Western Michigan has overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by a mean of 21.3 factors per sport throughout this profitable streak and has jumped 32 spots in SP+ (from 124th to 92nd) in simply three video games.
Toledo, in the meantime, has crushed projections in 5 of seven video games this yr and ranks seventh nationally in factors allowed per drive; the issue, because it normally is below Jason Candle: random duds. They misplaced as projected 18-point favorites to Western Michigan, then blew a 21-point lead (as a 22-point favourite) in opposition to Bowling Inexperienced. They’re favored by at the least eight factors in each remaining sport, however one other MAC dud would nearly actually remove them from the listing.
Key upcoming video games: Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (Week 9), Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Week 11), Ohio at Western Michigan (Week 12), Toledo at Miami (Ohio) (Week 12), Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Week 13), Ohio at Buffalo (Week 14)
9. Biletnikoff Award race
The preseason watch listing for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s greatest broad receiver, tends to function roughly one million names, give or take. However among the many six present per-game receiving yardage leaders, solely three made that preliminary listing: USC’s Makai Lemon, Louisville’s Chris Bell and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson. San José State’s Danny Scudero and Texas A&M’s Mario Craver needed to be added to the listing on Oct. 1, and Illinois’ Hank Beatty was added on Oct. 15.
Of the 9 wideouts listed in our preseason High 100 gamers listing, none are within the nation’s high 10 in receiving yards per sport, and solely 5 are within the high 50. The one motive Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 participant within the nation on that preseason listing, is even within the high 15 in yards per sport is as a result of he had 272 mixed yards in opposition to Grambling and Ohio. In 5 video games in opposition to power-conference opponents, he is averaging 66.0 yards per sport and 9.4 yards per catch.
A variety of this lack of manufacturing comes from the truth that, apart from a season-opening dud in opposition to Texas (six catches, 43 yards), Ohio State hasn’t wanted him to shine brightly but. Buckeyes video games have not been remotely shut, and it is honest to imagine Smith shall be simply as ridiculous of their probably upcoming CFP journey as he was final yr. However to win the award because the nation’s greatest receiver, should not you truly should do one thing in-season? Will voters lean towards Lemon (108.3 yards per sport), Bell (106.3) or a brand new star like Craver (95.4)? Will they vote for somebody like Smith or Alabama’s Ryan Williams (60.4 yards per workforce sport) based mostly on what all of us assume they’re as a substitute? It is an fascinating philosophical query.
10. Large 12 title race
Heading into Week 9 final season, Arizona State was 5-2 however solely 52nd in SP+, having wobbled via a sequence of shut video games and having suffered a mid-October upset loss with out injured quarterback Sam Leavitt. As you in all probability bear in mind, the Solar Devils caught fireplace, profitable six straight, profitable the Large 12 with a rout of Iowa State and all however beating Texas within the CFP quarterfinals.
ASU has actually lined up a number of parallels heading into Week 9 of 2025. Similar file? Verify. Similar September mediocrity? Verify. Similar mid-October loss sans Leavitt? Verify. One other SP+ rating within the 50s? Verify (fifty fifth). Regardless of a 3-1 convention file, and regardless of final week’s upset of Texas Tech, ASU has solely a 4.8% title probability for the time being, per SP+. From a statistical standpoint, a convention title run could be simply as surprising as final yr’s. It will be one hell of a narrative in the event that they caught fireplace once more.
Proper now, three groups have at the least a 17% title probability, per SP+: Texas Tech (34.8%), BYU (25.1%) and Cincinnati (17.5%). Utah (6.6%), ASU (4.8%) and Houston (4.1%) are nonetheless within the hunt, and if Iowa State (2.6%) regains its early-season kind, the Cyclones might beat some contenders down the stretch — together with unbeaten BYU this weekend — and insert themselves within the race as nicely.
Key upcoming video games: Houston at Arizona State (Week 9), Cincinnati at Utah (Week 10), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 11), BYU at Cincinnati (Week 13)