One of many major complaints concerning the new Champions League format, with no teams and one massive, 36-team desk, is that it is exhausting to determine the stakes from week to week. There’s loads of fact in that concern. However we’re 4 matchdays into the 2025-26 Champions League league part, having hit the midway level this week, and we are able to undoubtedly discover that lots has modified because the competitors started a few months in the past.
Liverpool have stumbled, but when Tuesday’s win over Actual Madrid is any indication, may be righting the ship. Arsenal’s odds of a Premier League-Champions League double enhance by the day. Bayern are reminding us all that in case you win each match, you are going to win a number of trophies. And as an entire, we have seen much more early focus from the game’s heavyweights than a 12 months in the past – we do not have groups like Actual Madrid or PSG flirting with lacking out on a top-24 end.
With a partial deal with the goings-on of this week’s Matchday 4 motion, let’s check out the largest issues which have (or have not) modified since this competitors started.
Whose inventory has risen probably the most in 4 matches?
Granted, 4 matches have not modified a lot for some groups. Of the 36 groups within the league part, 18 have a projected level whole, per Opta’s energy scores, inside two factors of what it was in early September. Monaco, for example, has evidently modified completely nothing so far — they’ve gone from 10.1 anticipated factors … to 10.1 anticipated factors.
Nonetheless, 9 groups have seen their factors and odds shift a great quantity in a optimistic path.
The very first thing you in all probability discover is that almost all of these groups are large names. Final 12 months’s league part noticed groups like PSG and Manchester Metropolis must rally from poor runs of kind to nonetheless make the knockout rounds, and their attracts had been far more tough due to it: Manchester Metropolis was seeded simply twenty second and ended up dropping to Actual Madrid within the spherical of 24 — sorry, the knockout part play-offs — whereas PSG was seeded fifteenth and drew Liverpool within the spherical of 16. Granted, they beat Liverpool and went on to win the match, however their draw was nonetheless more durable than they’d have hoped it might be.
This time round, it appears many of the heavyweights have made it a degree to deal with their enterprise early. The highest 10 groups on the earth, per Opta, are all at the moment twelfth or higher within the Champions League desk. Granted, that features groups like Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool, who’ve wobbled at instances this fall, but it surely additionally contains the groups above.
Amongst that group, Bayern and Arsenal have very a lot asserted themselves as the 2 finest groups on this subject so far. Bayern have but to drop factors in any match in any competitors, and Arsenal have misplaced solely to Liverpool in Premier League play. They’ve outscored opponents 25-3 on this competitors, and that features Bayern’s 2-1 win over defending champion PSG in Paris on Tuesday.
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Bayern’s and Arsenal’s leagues have additionally seen probably the most projected enchancment. Bundesliga groups have seen their common anticipated level whole rise by 2.0 factors, because of each Bayern’s and Borussia Dortmund’s early work. (The opposite two Bundesliga groups within the subject, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen, have seen their anticipated level totals barely change.) In the meantime, English groups are up by a mean of 1.7, which should not be a shock since three of the 5 are represented within the desk above.
Solely two groups from outdoors Europe’s Huge 5 leagues have seen their inventory change in a optimistic style: Galatasaray and FK Qarabag. Galatasaray bought walloped 5-1 by Eintracht Frankfurt on Matchday 1, however they’ve since received three straight to take a seat ninth general, whereas Qarabag are actually the story of the competitors. They’ve received two of 4 matches, and their 2-2 draw with Chelsea on Wednesday was extremely deserved.
Actually, Matchday 4 gave us a pair completely different units of vibes. On Tuesday, in 5 matches pitting groups from the Huge 5 leagues in opposition to groups from outdoors, the Huge 5 groups took 13 factors (4 wins and a draw) and outscored their foes 12-2. On Wednesday, we bought one other 5 such matches, and the Huge 5 groups earned simply eight factors with two lackluster wins (Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 over Benfica, Inter 2-1 over Kairat Almaty), two wild attracts (Qarabag 2, Chelsea 2; Membership Brugge 3, Barcelona 3) and Villarreal’s 1-0 loss to Pafos.
Wednesday was encouraging as a result of shock outcomes are life-givers in lengthy tournaments, although the general pattern is fairly clear.
Whose inventory has fallen probably the most?
9 groups have seen their inventory rise, however 9 have finished the alternative. And nobody has upset greater than a pair of former European Cup champions.
Benfica and Ajax are the one remaining groups to have did not earn a single level so far. Benfica have been a bit snake-bitten, with three one-goal losses together with Wednesday’s somewhat undeserved 1-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. However Ajax have simply been terrible, getting outscored 14-1 and dropping every match by at the very least two targets. The again half of their schedule lightens up a bit, however that will not matter if their kind would not enhance.
Solely three of the above groups are from Huge 5 leagues, and two — Villarreal and Athletic Membership — are from Spain. In all, LaLiga has simply had the worst type of any of the Huge 5. Actual Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have not seen their anticipated level totals change a lot, and Athletic and Villarreal are at the moment twenty seventh and thirty second, respectively, each positioned to fail to succeed in the spherical of 24.
Barcelona’s title odds, in the meantime, have begun to endure with their latest run of poor kind. Three groups, actually, have seen their title odds drop by greater than 3.0%: Liverpool (down 9.2 proportion factors to 11.3%), Barcelona (down 3.6 to 4.3%) and Chelsea (down 3.1 to 4.1%).
The Greatest XI to this point
Goalkeeper: David Raya, Arsenal. For lineups like this, I are likely to favor probably the most well-tested of keepers, going with somebody like, say, Bodo/Glimt’s Nikita Haikin, who has confronted 27 pictures on objective — pictures that had been value 10.0 xG in line with StatsPerform’s post-shot mannequin — however has allowed solely seven targets from mentioned pictures. He’s subsequently +3.0 by way of targets prevented. He is been superior.
Raya, then again, has confronted solely seven pictures on objective in 4 matches, a ridiculously low workload. However he is stopped all of them (targets prevented: +1.1), and, properly, when you have not allowed a single objective, it is exhausting to select anybody else.
Backups: Nikita Haikin (Bodo/Glimt), Guglielmo Vicario (Tottenham Hotspur)
1:22
Nicol: Szoboszlai was ‘world class’ vs. Actual Madrid
Steve Nicol analyses Arne Slot’s Liverpool efficiency as he believes they ‘outplayed’ Actual Madrid of their 1-0 win within the Champions League at Anfield.
Proper again: Dominik Szoboszlai, Liverpool. Like Arne Slot, I am sticking Szoboszlai at proper again as a result of he must be within the staff someplace. In 4 matches, he is performed 90 minutes with no consideration again, 90 as a defensive midfielder, 90 as a central midfielder and 90 as an attacking midfielder.
Backups: Pedro Porro (Tottenham Hotspur), Matheus Silva (FK Qarabag)
Heart-backs: Josko Gvardiol, Manchester Metropolis; Odin Bjørtuft, Bodo/Glimt. There are two kinds of central defenders within the Champions League. First, the blokes on wealthy possession groups who’re relied upon as a lot for correct buildup play as something, after which there are the blokes on outmanned squads who’re tasked with placing out numerous fires. These two every fill considered one of these roles, however they’ve produced almost the identical stats within the course of, which I take pleasure in.
Gvardiol has the third-most cross completions (291) and progressive carries (53) within the competitors; he assisted considered one of Erling Haaland’s many targets, and he is made 55 defensive interventions to this point. Bjortuft, in the meantime, has additionally made 55 interventions with glorious ball development — fifth in cross completions, first in progressive carries.
Backups: Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool), Micky van de Ven (Tottenham Hotspur), Derrick Luckassen (Pafos)
Left again: Nuno Mendes, PSG. He is merely the very best left again on the earth, and it won’t be significantly shut. He proves it in each competitors he is in (except for the Membership World Cup last, anyway). Even with the sprained knee he evidently suffered late in opposition to Bayern, I would nonetheless choose him over nearly anybody else.
Backups: Ousseynou Niang (Union Saint-Gilloise), Raphaël Guerreiro (Bayern Munich)
Defensive midfielder: Joey Veerman, PSV. For defensive midfielder, I have a tendency to take a look at who’s combining nice ball development work with the very best ball stopping. Properly, Veerman does much more of the previous than the latter, however he is first within the competitors with 57 progressive passes, he has one help from eight probabilities created, and he is at the very least within the prime 50 in ball recoveries (19). That’ll do.
Backups: Morten Hjulmand (Sporting CP), Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern Munich)
Central midfielder: Vitinha, PSG. He stays a wildly spectacular string-puller: He is first in cross makes an attempt (414), fourth in progressive passes (44), seventh in progressive carries (45) and even fourth in ball recoveries (27). He has a objective and an help, too, although that is not likely even his job.
Backups: Phil Foden (Manchester Metropolis), Hakan Çalhanoglu (Inter Milan)
Central attacking midfielder: Fermín López, Barcelona. Solely Victor Osimhen has extra mixed Champions League targets and assists than Lopez (three targets, two assists), and Lopez has solely performed in 269 of a potential 360 minutes. He does completely no work in protection, however he is doing a great job in ball development and a terrific job of carving out area within the field.
Florian Wirtz leads the competitors with 16 probabilities created, however we’re going with the scorer right here.
Backups: Florian Wirtz (Liverpool), Hans Vanaken (Membership Brugge)
Proper winger: Lamine Yamal, Barcelona. I imply, my gracious:
Backups: Michael Olise (Bayern Munich), Carlos Forbs (Membership Brugge)
Heart ahead: Victor Osimhen, Galatasaray. He is performed in solely three of 4 matches, however he leads the competitors in targets (six), and whereas three of them have been penalties, his uncooked shot totals — 18 pictures, 15 on course, 11 value at the very least 0.2 xG — are absurd.
With Osimhen main the way in which, Galatasaray are a professional menace to make a run to at the very least the quarterfinals or semifinals.
Backups: Kylian Mbappé (Actual Madrid), Julián Álvarez (Atletico Madrid)
Left winger: Luis Díaz, Bayern Munich. His pace has allowed Harry Kane to play as half center-forward, rattling close to part-midfielder this 12 months; Kane’s getting extra concerned all through the pitch, and Diaz is relentlessly racing into area. He has three targets and 25 progressive carries, and he is a keen presser.
Diaz has been a transformative addition, simply as he is appeared like a little bit of a transformative departure from Liverpool.
Backups: Marcus Rashford (Barcelona), Jens Petter Hauge (Bodo/Glimt)
Rating all 36 groups after Matchday 4
(Word: These rankings are based mostly on my private opinions for the place groups stand in the intervening time: it is not supposed to immediately mirror the present desk.)
1. Arsenal. The way in which Mikel Arteta has been capable of distribute minutes is jarring. Twenty-three guys have performed at the very least 140 minutes, and 12 have performed at the very least 700, however solely Declan Rice and Gabriel Magalhães have performed in all 16 matches in all competitions, and solely Gabriel and David Raya have topped 1,200 minutes. And but they’ve received 14 of 16 matches and have allowed three targets all season.
I solely included considered one of their gamers on the Greatest XI above as a result of so many guys have finished so properly that just about nobody has actually stood out. In Soccer Supervisor, that is the purpose at which you begin fascinated by beginning one other save — your staff’s too good, and it will get boring quickly. (I doubt it can get boring for Arsenal followers, nevertheless.)
2:18
Did Luis Diaz deserve his purple card in opposition to PSG after Achraf Hakimi sort out?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Achraf Hakimi’s harm after Bayern Munich’s Luis Diaz was despatched off for a harmful sort out on the Paris Saint Germain defender.
2. Bayern Munich. Due to Diaz’s mid-game purple card, Bayern had been capable of show themselves in two fully alternative ways on Tuesday in Paris. Within the first half, they merely manhandled the defending European champs, scoring twice and creating nearly the entire recreation’s good probabilities (first half xG: Bayern 1.4, PSG 0.5). Within the second half, a person down, they needed to endure and climate an enormous PSG storm. However they did so efficiently.
For the reason that Membership World Cup loss to PSG, they’ve performed 15 matches and received all of them. It feels unusual not rating them No. 1 with such an ideal document, however guess who they go to on Matchday 5? Arsenal!
3. PSG. Between accidents and heavy shuffling from Luis Enrique, we have barely seen full-strength PSG this season, and Ousmane Dembélé having to go away after 25 minutes on Tuesday was a reminder of that. They lack the sting they displayed on this competitors final spring, however they’re enjoying higher than they had been final November at the very least.
4. Manchester Metropolis. Phil Foden’s stable rebound season continues, as a pair of excellent finishes in opposition to Borussia Dortmund — his two targets got here on pictures value simply 0.13 mixed xG — turned what ought to have been an honest win (xG: Metropolis 1.9, BVB 0.9) into a powerful 4-1 thumping. After a bumpy begin that included two early Premier League losses and a glitchy draw at Monaco within the Champions League, they’ve received six of their final seven and eight of 10.
It is exhausting to make the case that they are in the identical league as Arsenal or Bayern particularly proper now, but it surely’s early. They may get there.
5. Liverpool. The Reds gave Actual Madrid loads of the ball, however created nearly the entire attractiveness in open play and dominated on set items. All in all, it was a splendidly well-rounded efficiency loaded with good inventive work from Szoboszlai and Wirtz.
1:44
Had been the Liverpool followers proper to boo Trent Alexander-Arnold?
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if the Liverpool followers had the “proper” to boo Trent Alexander-Arnold on his first return to Anfield.
6. Inter Milan. I referred to as Inter’s win over Kairat lackluster above, and that is in all probability unfair — they tried 23 pictures (value 2.0 xG) to Kairat’s seven (0.2) — however the bar’s fairly excessive for the highest eight. They did keep away from dropping factors, nevertheless, and so they’re considered one of three groups with an ideal 12 of 12 factors.
7. Actual Madrid. With solely two losses in 15 matches and star turns for gamers like Arda Güler and Álvaro Carreras, issues are going undeniably properly for Xabi Alonso at Actual Madrid. However their two losses — 5-2 at Atletico in September and a not-as-close-as-the-score 1-0 defeat at Liverpool on Tuesday — had been startlingly poor. They may by no means match Liverpool’s effort and management, and solely Thibaut Courtois stored it from being a lot worse than 1-0.
8. Newcastle United. After final weekend’s no-show loss at West Ham United, Newcastle responded properly, thumping a stylistically related Athletic Membership by enjoying higher protection and attacking with extra directness at instances.
Eddie Howe & Co. are laboring at thirteenth within the Premier League, however they’re sixth within the Champions League desk.
9. Tottenham Hotspur. On a day wherein Bayern and Liverpool scored large wins over fellow bluebloods, Micky van de Ven by some means stole the present.
If you have not seen Micky van de Ven’s solo objective but watch this! 😱
…and when you have seen Micky van de Ven’s solo objective watch it once more! 🤯#UCLGOTD | @Heineken pic.twitter.com/rvDUBeYZwG
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 4, 2025
Spurs: nonetheless very complicated and inconsistent. And likewise seventh within the Champions League desk and sixth within the Premier League.
10. Barcelona. Matchday 4 did not give us fairly as many targets because the final spherical, but it surely did give us a wonderful — for neutrals, anyway — 3-3 draw between Barca and Membership Brugge. The defensive breakdowns have gotten much more frequent for Hansi Flick in his second season at Barca (simply as they did in his second 12 months at Bayern), and so they’ve given up 14 targets of their final seven matches in all competitions.
The season started superbly, with eight matches unbeaten, but it surely’s rising rocky, and never even some superb nonsense from Lamine Yamal might salvage all three factors in Bruges. Actually, they wanted a late disallowed objective from Brugge simply to seize one level.
11. Chelsea. For no matter they lack by way of elite expertise, FK Qarabag subject a staff of grown males and steely veterans; Chelsea, in the meantime, began six gamers 21 and below. They bought genuinely outplayed for a lot of their 2-2 attract Azerbaijan. An especially up-and-down season continues.
1:35
Did Chelsea ‘get away’ with their 2-2 draw vs. Qarabag?
Gab Marcotti analyses Chelsea’s struggles as they managed to get a 2-2 draw within the Champions League vs. Qarabag.
12. Galatasaray. It took them till the 59th minute to attain on a dire Ajax staff, however Victor Osimhen adopted a stunning objective up with a pair of penalties for a hat trick in a 3-0 win and halfway via the league part, solely 4 groups have extra factors than Galatasaray.
13. Atletico Madrid. They’re solely allowed to look nice or horrible, by no means in between, however they had been superior in opposition to Union Saint-Gilloise. When Julian Alvarez is dialed in, as he was on Tuesday, Atleti in all probability are too.
Julián Álvarez with a superb contact and end for Atlético’s opener 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/DZdaXROauI
— CBS Sports activities Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 4, 2025
14. Borussia Dortmund. When you beat Borussia Dortmund, you are in all probability fairly good. Within the final six months, solely Actual Madrid (Membership World Cup), Bayern (Bundesliga) and Manchester Metropolis (Champions League) have finished it. They had been undoubtedly second-best in Manchester, and so they’ve slipped to 14th within the crowded desk, however their subsequent two matches are at residence in opposition to Villarreal and Bodo/Glimt, in order that they’ll have an opportunity to maneuver again into the highest eight.
15. Atalanta. Charles De Ketelaere had a penalty saved, and Ademola Lookman had a objective disallowed by a decent offside (then had a cranky trade with coach Ivan Juric after he was subbed off), however after a wierd sequence wherein it appeared they might have dedicated a handball in their very own field, an ideal breakaway and an ideal end from Lazar Samardzic gave Atalanta three robust highway factors in opposition to a great Marseille.
Like loads of different groups within the center right here, they have been everywhere in the map in 2025-26 (and an enormous run of attracts is dragging them down in Serie A), however they’re comfortably positioned to advance, at the very least.
16. Sporting CP. Sporting bought an early objective from Maxi Araujo in opposition to Juventus after which closed up store, trying solely two pictures after the 14th minute and ultimately settling for a draw. Contemplating how a lot Juve lacks in confidence in the intervening time — and the truth that a win would have parked Sporting within the prime seven within the desk — that is a reasonably disappointing effort.
17. Monaco. Their win over Bodo/Glimt was a full three-act play, and so they had been fortunate to outlive the second act with the lead.
This one offsets their Matchday 1 dud in opposition to Membership Brugge. They’re in fine condition now.
18. Bayer Leverkusen. It is higher to be unimpressive and win than to impress in a loss, I suppose. Patrik Schick’s entertaining objective gave Leverkusen three factors and stored them within the prime 24, however this staff’s wobbling in the intervening time.
19. Marseille. Accidents are piling up, and so they needed to really feel fairly aggrieved by the way in which Wednesday’s loss to Atalanta ended. They’re proving their high quality in Ligue 1 play, however they’re twenty fifth within the Champions League with residence video games in opposition to Newcastle and Liverpool remaining.
20. Juventus. Contemplating Luciano Spalletti has been Juve supervisor for lower than per week, getting a draw in opposition to a scorching Sporting staff wasn’t the worst consequence on the earth. Their final 4 Champions League matches do not function anybody at the moment increased than 18th within the desk, so they might find yourself in respectable form. Really trying the half would assist, too.
21. Eintracht Frankfurt. Stability is difficult. After a dreadful run of defensive kind — 27 targets allowed in eight matches — Dino Toppmoller and Eintracht have tightened issues of late and within the course of, their assault has vanished. They’ve allowed solely two targets of their final three matches in all competitions, however they’ve scored solely two as properly. Tuesday’s match at Napoli offered a much-needed level, however they managed solely seven pictures value 0.36 xG within the 0-0 draw.
22. Napoli. Napoli tried many of the match’s higher-xG pictures, however nothing got here of it. Antonio Conte has had a popularity at instances for being excellent in home play however shaky within the Champions League, and beating Inter 3-1 in an enormous Serie A match whereas taking one mixed level in opposition to PSV and Eintracht in all probability is not one of the best ways to alter that.
23. FK Qarabag. The champs of Azerbaijan continued their unimaginable run with a draw vs. Chelsea. They’re fifteenth within the desk, forward of three Italian groups and three Spanish groups, amongst others, and yet one more win would all however guarantee that they advance.
24. Membership Brugge. The three-3 draw with Barca was one other good consequence to pair with their thumping of Monaco on Matchday 1. They’ve just one prime staff remaining on the slate, so they need to be capable to scrounge up sufficient factors to advance. Which is nice information for us as a result of they’re entertaining as hell.
25. Bodo/Glimt. A troublesome loss on Tuesday in opposition to Monaco. Monaco’s Folarin Balogun lashed one in from a decent angle, and each Jostein Gundersen and Kasper Hogh missed high-quality probabilities to tie. Beating Juventus in three weeks might be completely very important for any hopes of development.
26. PSV Eindhoven. Hey there, Ricardo Pepi.
RICARDO PEPI TO THE RESCUE! 🇺🇸
His late stoppage-time objective salvages a degree for PSV on the highway 💪 pic.twitter.com/p3gPrGT5xm
— CBS Sports activities Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 4, 2025
Pepi saved the day (and a degree) at Olympiacos, however after a stable efficiency in opposition to Bayer Leverkusen and a terrific efficiency in opposition to Napoli, this was nonetheless a letdown.
27. Villarreal. They’re nonetheless winless on the midway level after a loss to Pafos, and so they have to go to Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen shifting ahead. They may have to win at the very least one of many two to advance.
28. Athletic Bilbao. It simply is not coming collectively for Athletic this season. They’re eleventh in LaLiga, and so they’re twenty seventh within the Champions League, with solely their win over FK Qarabag protecting their hopes afloat. In a 12 months wherein they wanted a bit of little bit of harm luck to assist with depth, they’ve gotten the alternative — neither of the Williams brothers (Nico or Inaki) have topped 850 minutes but this season.
29. Benfica. If both of the zero-point groups (Benfica and Ajax) are to rally, it can undoubtedly be Benfica, as three of their 4 losses had been by one objective and so they had been the higher staff for a lot of Wednesday’s loss to Leverkusen. However beginning with Matchday 5’s go to to Ajax, of all groups, the wins want to start out flowing.
30. Olympiacos. Their Tuesday match in opposition to PSV was almost a must-win and so they performed prefer it, creating many of the match’s good alternatives and going forward early because of Gelson Martins. However permitting an equalizer in stoppage time was devastating. They’re going to have to win away in opposition to Kairat and Ajax to have any hope of advancing.
31. Union Saint-Gilloise. A very enjoyable staff to look at. Ousseynou Niang and Anan Khalailli are a dynamite pair of wingbacks, and so they by no means lack for attacking expertise. However the protection will in all probability show a bit of too overwhelmed to permit them to advance.
32. Pafos. Few leagues on the earth punch above their weight class just like the Cypriot First Division, and its 2025-26 Champions League consultant backed that up on Wednesday with their 1-0 win over Villarreal. Defender Derrick Luckassen scored the lone objective on a nook and made 21 defensive interventions, David Luiz — sure, that David Luiz — made 14 extra interventions, and Cyprus’ present second-place staff beat Spain’s present third-place staff.
For the primary time EVER within the #UCL, Pafos lead 💥 pic.twitter.com/un1Te7QeDG
— CBS Sports activities Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 5, 2025
33. Copenhagen. A enjoyable and fascinating staff … that has allowed 12 targets in 4 matches.
34. Slavia Prague. They took their medication in 3-0 losses to Inter and Arsenal, however attracts of their different two matches and upcoming video games in opposition to Athletic Bilbao (residence) and Pafos (away) nonetheless give them hope.
35. Ajax. Zero factors! Ajax!
36. Kairat Almaty.
Captain Ofri Arad with a header that stuns the San Siro for the equalizer 🎯 pic.twitter.com/kGQdBW0UZC
— CBS Sports activities Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 5, 2025
After we complain concerning the (apparent) downsides of the Champions League and European soccer as an entire — aggressive imbalance, too many matches, and so forth. — we threat dropping sight of when one thing superior occurs. Like followers of Kairat Almaty attending to have fun their captain scoring a objective on the legendary San Siro.