Every fall, we get a school soccer weekend that appears strong on paper and seems spectacular as a result of, oh look, there are heaps of ranked groups on the street! The primary Saturday of November gives a trio of ranked-versus-ranked video games, but in addition provides us 10 different ranked groups leaving residence. All are favored, however there’s solely a 9% likelihood all of them win, per SP+. On common, three will lose.
Positive, some street groups — Notre Dame (at Boston School), Memphis (at Rice), Indiana (at a flagging Maryland) — are most likely safer than others, however the distribution of upsets could have a huge effect on a School Soccer Playoff race that’s about to select up steam. It’s November, in spite of everything, and the primary CFP rankings come out subsequent week. It might harm fairly a bit to stumble earlier than the race actually will get going, however a number of groups virtually actually will.
Maintain your head on a swivel — there are upsets on the way in which! Utilizing playoff tiers as our information, here is every thing that you must comply with in a spooky and mysterious Week 10.
All instances are ET, and all video games are on Saturday until in any other case famous.
Playoff tiers
In fidgeting with CFP odds this week — each these of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and my experimental odds primarily based on SP+ — I found two issues: 1) Making a single common from these two sources made lots of sense to my eyes and smoothed out some tough edges I discovered in each units of odds, and a couple of) that common neatly breaks groups into Playoff tiers.
The three remaining unbeaten SEC/Huge Ten groups have common odds of creating the CFP nicely over 90%, then a second tier of six groups is between 54% and 71%, a 3rd tier of 4 groups is between 36% and 50%, an enormous fourth tier of hopefuls is between 5% and 25%, and, in fact, a fifth tier of Group of 5 groups is primarily preventing over a single bid.
Week 10 may not have an effect on these in Tiers 1 and a couple of a lot, barring an enormous street upset, however let’s stroll by way of this week’s slate, tier-by-tier.
Tier 1
Indiana (8-0, 96.4% common playoff odds)
Ohio State (7-0, 94.8%)
Texas A&M (8-0, 93.2%)
At this level, any of those groups may need to lose 3 times to fall out of CFP rivalry. Texas A&M nonetheless has to journey to Missouri and Texas and host an athletic South Carolina squad, nevertheless it’s protected to say these groups are in nice form. The Aggies are off this week, and the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are favored by 20-plus factors.
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (midday, Fox)
Penn State performed nicely in a good loss at Iowa two weeks in the past and nonetheless has loads of top-end expertise. The Nittany Lions are simply adequate that Ohio State may do what it has carried out to Ohio, Washington and others: commerce some blows and let their opponent dangle round for 1 / 4 or two earlier than hitting the accelerator.
Present line: OSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 14.7
No. 2 Indiana at Maryland (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Maryland enters November having collapsed as soon as once more. The Terps are 21-5 in September beneath Mike Locksley and 15-28 thereafter. So, this is not one of the best time to be taking part in a crew that simply moved to first in SP+. Indiana ranks first nationally in factors per drive and second in factors allowed. The protection is choosing up some accidents, but when the Hoosiers deliver even their B-game, they will cruise.
Present line: Indiana -21.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 16.1 | FPI projection: Indiana by 17.1
Tier 2
Alabama (7-1, 71.2%)
Ole Miss (7-1, 70.6%)
Oregon (7-1, 67.9%)
Georgia (6-1, 61.4%)
Georgia Tech (8-0, 60.0%)
BYU (8-0, 54.0%)
Right here, we get unbeaten Huge 12 and ACC groups and a few one-loss SEC and Huge Ten groups. In the event you add these groups’ playoff odds, you may see that on common, about 4 of those six will make the CFP. Solely three play in Week 10, and two are single-digit favorites.
No. 8 Georgia Tech at NC State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
NC State is bodily, randomly explosive and harmful regardless of struggling 4 losses in 5 video games. However will probably be troublesome making stops in opposition to a Tech offense that may beat you with both huge performs or relentless effectivity. Quarterback and resident robust man Haynes King will get the advantage of the doubt at this level, even when he seems to be like a grizzled 20-year veteran each time he will get up after successful.
Present line: Tech -5.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 5.6
Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Groups have performed nicely beneath interim coaches this yr — and there have been a lot of them — and with Florida’s stellar protection, it would not take many breaks for the Gators to make this a sport. However contemplating Georgia spots each opponent a multiscore lead after which wins anyway, it is arduous to suppose Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs will not discover a manner.
Present line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 10.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 9.3
South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss (7 p.m., ESPN)
Ole Miss is in incredible playoff form, however the Rebels have not gained an SEC title in 62 years, they usually haven’t got a ton of margin for error in that hunt. South Carolina is a terrifying underdog with the uncooked, particular person expertise and athleticism it boasts — simply ask Alabama — however that dreadful offensive line will most likely stop the Gamecocks from making a sustained problem.
Present line: Rebels -12.5 (down from -14.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 9.9
Tier 3
Texas Tech (7-1, 50.4%)
Miami (6-1, 45.8%)
Vanderbilt (7-1, 42.2%)
Notre Dame (5-2, 36.6%)
On common, two of those groups — a one-loss Huge 12 crew, a one-loss ACC crew, a one-loss SEC crew with a weaker résumé and a two-loss Notre Dame crew with an important power of schedule (that can dissipate considerably in November) — will make it. You can make the case that Texas Tech ought to have been in Tier 2, due to its 50% odds and the truth that the Pink Raiders’ lone loss got here with out beginning quarterback Behren Morton, however we’ll stick them right here for now. They may face a stiff take a look at in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday, whereas Vandy is an underdog in Austin, Texas. This tier might see a shakeup Saturday.
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (midday, ABC)
At 7-1 and ranked ninth within the nation, having narrowly escaped in opposition to Missouri final week, Clark Lea’s unbelievable Vanderbilt Commodores stay one of many important characters of the 2025 season. Diego Pavia guides an offense that ranks seventh in success charge* and factors per drive, the protection that ranked 124th in defensive SP+ simply two seasons in the past now ranks thirty second, and the Commodores nonetheless have a possible mulligan of their pocket heading into November.
(* Success charge: How often an offense is gaining 50% of obligatory yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
The Commodores will not be the principle characters in Austin on Saturday, nonetheless. These honors as a substitute go to their host, the preseason No. 1 crew that has seemed like a playoff crew, at most, as soon as this season.
It is put-up-or-shut-up time for Texas. After needing extra time (and a few heroic punt returns from Ryan Niblett) to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State — that are a mixed 0-9 in SEC play — the previous two weeks, the Horns must look the half Saturday, after which once more in two weeks at Georgia, after which once more two weeks after that in opposition to Texas A&M. (Technically, they might lose to Vandy however nonetheless get in with top-10 wins over UGA and A&M. However that is a fairly tenuous path.) Protection and particular groups have carried Texas so far as they will. Now, the offense has to point out up.
It has to point out up with or with out Arch Manning. He left the MSU sport in extra time due to a concussion and is listed as questionable. Backup QB Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman who was a redshirt freshman backup at Gardner-Webb when Manning was lighting up defenses as a highschool senior at New Orleans’ Isidore Newman College and incomes an almost good recruiting rating, threw the game-winning TD go in opposition to the Bulldogs. If he has to begin Saturday, he has to prime what Manning has carried out so far with a run sport that has been a stunning (and injury-laden) dud and an offensive line that hasn’t confirmed prepared for prime time. A method or one other, the Horns must transfer the ball and rating factors, even in probably sloppy situations.
The protection will nonetheless assist. For pretty much as good as Vandy’s offense has been this season, Texas’ D is one of the best the Commodores have confronted, and in opposition to three different top-15 defenses, the Commodores have averaged a merely first rate 20.7 factors per sport (in opposition to everybody else: 49.0 factors per sport). Texas most likely will not have to attain round 40 to win Saturday, however the Horns will both begin trying just like the contenders they had been speculated to be, or they are going to bow out of the playoff hunt.
Present line: Texas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 2.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 5.7
No. 13 Texas Tech at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
OK, no extra getting harm, Behren Morton. Texas Tech misplaced its beginning quarterback for half or all of 4 video games and went 3-1, dropping solely a heartbreaker to Arizona State, however now backup Will Hammond is out due to a season-ending harm. Third-stringer Mitch Griffis was glorious in opposition to Oklahoma State final week, however that hardly counts. Morton ought to return Saturday, and he wants to stay within the lineup.
In fact, even with a 100% wholesome Morton, the Pink Raiders might have their palms full this weekend, as Kansas State is without doubt one of the nation’s hottest groups. The protection has been strong, however essentially the most enchancment has come from the offense — quarterback Avery Johnson, particularly.
Avery Johnson, first 4 video games: 48.0 Whole QBR, 60.6% completion charge, 11.1 yards per completion; 21.5 non-sack dashing yards per sport
Johnson, final 4 video games: 80.5 Whole QBR, 65.5% completion charge, 12.7 yards per completion; 53.0 non-sack dashing yards per sport
Johnson is utilizing his legs extra, and it is serving to the run and passing video games as star working again Dylan Edwards stays out. Tech, nonetheless, has by far one of the best protection the Wildcats have confronted this season. Dropping deal with Skyler Gill-Howard to harm harm, however linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey are taking part in like All-People, and the secondary is infinitely higher than it was final yr. Tech is favored for a purpose, however that is the worst time to play Okay-State.
Present line: Tech -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 12.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.6
No. 10 Miami at SMU (midday, ESPN)
For half-hour in opposition to Stanford, Miami backed up some considerations I have been having concerning the Hurricanes. They run and go effectively, however an absence of huge performs forces them to plod down the sector, and early drives stalled through a missed discipline objective and turnover on downs. Carson Beck & Co. had been tied with the Cardinal 7-7 within the third quarter.
The Hurricanes then hit the gasoline and cruised 42-7, in fact. However droughts and random errors — a penalty right here, an interception there — are worrisome. And if SMU’s offense weren’t such a large number, I’d discuss myself right into a Mustangs upset. They’ve overachieved in opposition to defensive projections for 5 of the previous six video games, however the offense ranks 124th in three-and-out charge and 114th in turnovers. They will nonetheless be fairly explosive, however the errors, from quarterback Kevin Jennings and others, are an issue. And Miami’s protection, with Rueben Bain Jr. up entrance and slot nook Keionte Scott and security Jakobe Thomas within the again, is one of the best they’ve confronted.
SMU remains to be 3-1 in convention play. An upset in probably wet situations would hold the Mustangs within the ACC title hunt. However that might require a stage of high quality they have not constantly proven this yr.
Present line: Miami -11.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 8.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.3
No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston School (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
BC is coming off of its first first rate efficiency in practically two months — a aggressive loss to Louisville — however the Notre Dame protection has allowed simply 12.8 factors per sport over its previous 4 contests (regardless of taking part in two groups within the offensive SP+ prime 10). And if working again Jeremiyah Love’s 200-yard sport in opposition to USC is any indication, we would see a Heisman push from him in November. The Irish ought to romp.
Present line: Irish -28.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 29.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 29.3
Tier 4
Louisville (6-1, 26.1%)
Texas (6-2, 26.1%)
Virginia (7-1, 21.0%)
Tennessee (6-2, 19.1%)
Cincinnati (7-1, 18.4%)
Oklahoma (6-2, 15.7%)
Utah (6-2, 14.8%)
Houston (7-1, 14.3%)
Washington (6-2, 14.2%)
Michigan (6-2, 12.5%)
Missouri (6-2, 11.9%)
USC (5-2, 10.6%)
Iowa (6-2, 7.2%)
Pitt (6-2, 6.7%)
Nebraska (6-2, 4.5%)
That is the Desperation Tier. On common, solely about two of those 15 groups will make it, and except for the ACC/Huge 12 groups that would nonetheless attain their convention title video games, nobody right here can survive one other loss and really feel assured.
This is the place the actual motion is in Week 10. Along with Texas-Vandy, we get two Tier 4 semi-elimination video games, plus a Utah-Cincy sport that can assist to find out the hierarchy within the Huge 12 race.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Final season, former Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel and his Tennessee Volunteers welcomed the Sooners to the SEC with a 25-15 defeat. This season, he’ll have an opportunity to all however eradicate the Sooners from the CFP race. And as with final week’s Auburn-Arkansas sport, these groups are taking part in completely different sports activities. Oklahoma’s SEC video games have averaged 40.8 whole factors, and Tennessee’s have averaged 74.4. The Vols have not allowed fewer than 31 factors in league play, and the Sooners have not topped 26.
That is fairly the strength-versus-strength and weakness-versus-weakness matchup.
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s offense: eighth in success charge, eleventh in factors per drive
Oklahoma’s protection: first in success charge, fifth in factors per drive
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma’s offense: fiftieth in success charge, seventieth in factors per drive
Tennessee’s protection: 106th in success charge, ninety fifth in factors per drive
OU’s protection is superior, nevertheless it’s noteworthy that the Sooners have performed just one top-40 offense (per SP+) and gave up 431 yards and 34 factors to Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss punished the Sooners together with his legs in a manner that UT’s Joey Aguilar most likely will not, however Aguilar avoids sacks and boasts two big-play receivers in Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews.
Oklahoma’s offense has underachieved in opposition to projections for 5 straight video games however obtained an intriguing increase final week from working again Xavier Robinson, who gained 136 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer has been carrying a heavy load — which is difficult with an injured hand — and assist from the run sport could be welcome. In fact, Tennessee’s protection tends to be fairly accommodating. The Vols gave up 34 factors final week to a Kentucky offense that was averaging 15.8 in convention play.
Present line: Vols -3.5 | SP+ projection: Sooners by 1.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 3.3
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Utah evidently responds nicely to losses. When the Utes fell to Texas Tech in Week 4, they circled and walloped West Virginia and Arizona State by a mixed 90-24. After they dropped a detailed one to BYU, they trounced Colorado 53-7 with their backup quarterback.
In fact, to reply nicely to a loss, you have to lose first, and Utah cannot afford to try this once more. However realizing backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin is able to working the present like he did final week is sweet, even when he went simply 10-for-22 passing. Starter Devon Dampier is predicted to return, which might be good as a result of he is a extra environment friendly (albeit much less explosive) passer; deal with Dontay Corleone, finish Jalen Hunt and Cincinnati defend the run much better than the go.
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby instructions a balanced offense that may exploit weaknesses through both the run or go. Most groups run in opposition to Utah, because the Utes are eighth in yards allowed per dropback and sack charge however fifty fifth in yards allowed per carry (not together with sacks). The Bearcats’ main rusher, Evan Pryor, is out, however they nonetheless have Tawee Walker (extra environment friendly however much less explosive than Pryor), and Sorsby picks up lots of first downs. His elite elusiveness might give the Bearcats choices.
SP+ and these playoff tiers counsel unbeaten BYU and one-loss Texas Tech are atop the Huge 12 favorites checklist; the winner of this one will probably be No. 3 and awaiting an opportunity to maneuver up.
Present line: Utah -10.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 9.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.7
No. 23 USC at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., NBC)
No, these two groups will not be prone to attain the CFP — they’re every close to the underside of Tier 4 — however this one ought to nonetheless be fulfilling. The crew of the Nineteen Nineties is internet hosting the crew of the 2000s in a enjoyable helmet sport, and 4 of 5 video games between Nebraska’s Matt Rhule and USC’s Lincoln Riley have been determined by one rating (all gained by Riley).
Nebraska’s protection permits solely 4.6 yards per dropback (ninth nationally), whereas USC’s offense averages 9.5 (third). Jayden Maiava accomplished solely 22 of 42 passes in opposition to Notre Dame with two picks, and NU has an opportunity to win this matchup, however even with a few injured working backs and linemen, USC runs the ball nicely. The Huskers’ run protection is suspect.
Nebraska’s offense has been arduous to determine all season. The Huskers rank fifteenth in success charge, and Dylan Raiola is finishing 73% of his passes, however iffy explosiveness and poor purple zone operation have held them again. USC would not produce good effectivity or explosiveness numbers on protection, however the Trojans survive with purple zone stops and turnovers.
Present line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 1.7 | FPI projection: USC by 5.9
No. 15 Virginia at California (3:45 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia has gained its previous 4 video games by a mixed 14 factors, three in extra time. We all know how these runs have a tendency to finish — rudely and immediately — however with a mix of an environment friendly run sport and robust go rush, the Cavaliers might deal with a Cal crew with a poor run protection and poor go safety. If Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time to throw, nonetheless, the Golden Bears might finish the streak.
Present line: UVA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 4.7
No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech (3 p.m., The CW)
Virginia Tech has gained three of 5 beneath interim coach Philip Montgomery, controlling the ball with a superb run sport and forcing plenty of third-and-longs on protection. Louisville defends the run nicely, nonetheless, and if working again Isaac Brown picks up the place he left off final week (14 carries, 205 yards), the Playing cards will not have many third downs to fret about.
Present line: Louisville -10.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 15.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.4
West Virginia at No. 22 Houston (midday, FS1)
Since shedding to Texas Tech, Houston has overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections for 3 straight video games. The Cougars are defending the run and dashing the passer nicely; WVU cannot run the ball or defend the passer. Willie Fritz has engineered a incredible second-year turnaround, and November will inform us if his Coogs can threaten for the Huge 12 title.
Present line: Houston -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: Houston by 18.1 | FPI projection: Houston by 10.0
Pitt at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACCN)
Putting in a freshman at QB is normally an indication that you simply’re punting in your season, however Pitt put Mason Heintschel in and have become a playoff contender — Pitt gained 4 October ACC video games by a mean of 44-21. The Panthers ought to deal with Stanford, although the 2 ACC groups which have visited the Cardinal this season each massively underachieved in opposition to projections and misplaced.
Present line: Pitt -14.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 22.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 7.0
Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (7 p.m., BTN)
Michigan’s offense has scored 13 factors in every of its two losses and has averaged 34.3 in six wins. The latter is way extra doubtless than the previous right here, however Purdue is more and more aggressive, with two coulda-woulda-shoulda losses in three weeks. Michigan is three video games (and three projected wins) from a attainable win-and-you’re-in sport in opposition to Ohio State.
Present line: Michigan -21.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 21.7 | FPI projection: Michigan by 21.6
Tier (Group of) 5
North Texas (7-1, 15.3%)
James Madison (7-1, 14.9%)
USF (6-2, 14.1%)
Memphis (7-1, 14.0%)
Boise State (6-2, 9.0%)
San Diego State (6-1, 5.6%)
Navy (7-0, 5.3%)
Until we get some wild “three- or four-loss Huge 12/ACC champion” state of affairs, the Group of 5 is almost certainly getting just one CFP crew, and with eight groups all with common odds between 5% and 15%, this race is delightfully unsettled. Tulane fell ignominiously to UTSA on Thursday, however three of these groups are comfy favorites this weekend, and two face off early Saturday in Denton.
Navy at North Texas (midday, ESPN2)
It feels odd that Navy’s playoff odds are so low regardless of getting into November unbeaten, however the principle purpose is the upcoming schedule: The Midshipmen will probably be underdogs in a minimum of three of their subsequent 4 video games, together with Saturday’s journey to Denton.
Navy’s offense is as superior as ever; the Middies are fourth nationally in factors per drive, and Blake Horvath stays a particular possibility quarterback. However their protection ranks 88th in factors allowed per drive, and in opposition to the 2 top-100 groups (per SP+) they’ve confronted, they gained by a mixed three factors.
Every of Navy’s November opponents has an superior offense, beginning with North Texas. The Imply Inexperienced are fifth in offensive SP+ and have scored a minimum of 33 factors in each sport. They suffered a quick, turnover-based implosion in opposition to USF of their lone loss, however quarterback Drew Mestemaker keys a relentless passing sport, and Imply Inexperienced working backs, led by Caleb Hawkins, common 6.0 yards per carry.
UNT defends the go nicely, however the Imply Inexperienced are simply 113th in dashing success charge allowed. Navy will doubtless dominate the ball and hold the possession depend down, however to stay unbeaten, the Midshipmen will nonetheless need to make a cease or two.
Present line: UNT -6.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 5.5 | FPI projection: UNT by 8.5
Wyoming at San Diego State (7 p.m., CBSSN)
The run continues for San Diego State: Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have gained 5 in a row by a mean rating of 30-7, and although the war-of-attrition fashion is not a thriller, they’re projected favorites over every of their subsequent two opponents earlier than an enormous go to from Boise State in Week 12. However they first should keep their type in opposition to a Wyoming crew that has gained two of three and is at all times up for a rock battle.
Present line: SDSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 15.2 | FPI projection: SDSU by 9.0
No. 25 Memphis at Rice (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)
In its first yr beneath option-meister Scott Abell, Rice has been about what we anticipated: not nice however randomly harmful. The 4-4 Owls upset UConn final week and now face a Memphis crew that has given up some huge run performs at instances. Memphis’ offense might be too good, however the Tigers cannot afford a letdown now that they are again in nice form within the CFP race.
Present line: Memphis -13.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 20.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 18.8
Fresno State at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
If the highest groups within the American Convention hold taking out one another, two-loss Boise State could be poised to swoop in and snag the playoff bid. However the Broncos need to hold successful. Fresno State’s offense has averaged solely 16.3 factors over its previous 4 video games, however the Bulldogs defend the run nicely and drive turnovers. That might hold issues shut for some time.
Present line: BSU -17.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 16.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 18.8
Week 10 chaos superfecta
We’re once more utilizing this area to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 fastidiously curated video games with fairly huge level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. The Huge 12 was sadly unwilling to play the upset sport final week, so we fell again beneath .500 (4-5) for the season.
This time, we’re leaning into the “ranked groups on the street” factor: SP+ says that there is solely a 43% likelihood that Georgia Tech (73% win likelihood in opposition to Maryland), Texas Tech (78% in opposition to Kansas State), Louisville (83% in opposition to Virginia Tech) and Pitt (92% in opposition to Stanford) all win. Let’s take down a ranked crew (or, in Pitt’s case, a merely highly regarded crew).
Week 10 playlist
We coated much more video games than normal above, however for every window, from Friday night by way of late Saturday, here is a minimum of another sport you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend.
Friday night
North Carolina at Syracuse (7:30 p.m., ESPN). UNC has gone from getting blown out by everybody to dropping two straight heartbreakers. That is technically enchancment, although it most likely would not really feel prefer it. The Tar Heels’ protection is bettering rapidly and now faces a Syracuse assault that has averaged 12.5 factors per sport since QB Steve Angeli’s harm. UNC has to attain, too, however most likely not that a lot.
Present line: Syracuse -2.5 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 5.3 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 4.7
Early Saturday
Duke at Clemson (midday, ACCN). Duke is 3-1 in ACC play and is a projected favourite in each remaining sport after this. An upset would place the Blue Devils fairly nicely. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik is racing to return, however this sport will most likely be decided by what number of huge performs Duke can generate (and what number of turnovers it could keep away from) in opposition to a disappointing however proficient Tigers protection.
Present line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 2.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 2.2
Military at Air Pressure (midday, CBS). Military has gained six of its previous eight on this bitter rivalry. Air Pressure hasn’t topped 17 factors on the Black Knights since 2016, however the Falcons additionally have not scored fewer than 24 this season. Quarterback Liam Szarka is hovering, and Military’s defensive entrance is banged up. And since Air Pressure’s protection completely stinks, this may not be the standard Air Pressure-Military rock battle.
Present line: Air Pressure -1.5 (flipped from Military -1.5) | SP+ projection: Air Pressure by 0.2 | FPI projection: Military by 1.2
Saturday afternoon
New Mexico at UNLV (3 p.m., Mountain West Community). Two enjoyable, optimistic groups taking part in enjoyable, optimistic (and infrequently defense-optional) soccer with enjoyable, optimistic quarterbacks (New Mexico’s Jack Layne, UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea). You may need to comply with this one in your laptop computer — which is unlucky as a result of it is good quadbox-viewing materials — however it’s going to most likely be price it.
Present line: UNLV -3.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 5.4
Saturday night
Wake Forest at Florida State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). FSU has misplaced 4 straight, and religion in Mike Norvell is hanging by a thread. The Seminoles are proficient sufficient to be favored right here, however Wake Forest’s protection is great, and the Demon Deacons have overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections for 4 straight video games. They’ve all the arrogance FSU lacks in the meanwhile.
Present line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.2
Late Saturday
Hawai’i at San José State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). San Diego State is atop the “nice surprises” checklist within the Mountain West, however Hawai’i is shut. The Rainbow Warriors are two factors from an unbeaten file in convention play, and SP+ provides them a 20% likelihood of reaching 9-3 total. That may require a win right here in opposition to a snake-bitten, 2-5 SJSU crew that has misplaced 4 video games by solely 15 mixed factors.
Present line: SJSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Hawai’i by 1.7 | FPI projection: SJSU by 4.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the wonderful decrease ranges of the game. Listed below are three video games you need to observe.
Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 9 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., native streaming). We once more test in on the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletics Convention, aka essentially the most hypnotic race in soccer. There is a four-way tie atop the WIAC at 3-1, and people 4 groups are conveniently pairing off! No. 10 La Crosse is favored over No. 23 Stout in a single matchup, however the headliner is in River Falls, the place the host Falcons are on the lookout for their first win over Whitewater since 2001 and their first playoff bid since 1996. Their previous 4 losses within the sequence have all been painfully shut; this might be a good time to lastly get one over the road.
SP+ projection: UWW by 1.4.
FCS: Dartmouth at No. 15 Harvard (3 p.m., ESPN+). Harvard is barely fifteenth within the polls regardless of successful six video games by a mean of 43-12. SP+, nonetheless, loves the Crimson, rating them behind solely Tarleton State and mighty North Dakota State. We’ll probably discover out who’s proper within the playoffs, however within the meantime, that is the closest take a look at Harvard will face till the season finale at Yale. Dartmouth is 5-1 and upset Yale three weeks in the past; protection has lengthy been the Huge Inexperienced’s calling card, and theirs is great this yr.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 13.3.
Division II: No. 7 Colorado State-Pueblo at No. 6 Western Colorado (3 p.m., RMAC Community). We’ve got a pair of top-15 matchups in Division II: No. 3 West Florida is a slight favourite at No. 15 Delta State, and out West, this one might have main playoff seeding implications. Western Colorado is unbeaten and dominant, and CSU-Pueblo has gained its previous 4 by a mean of 51-12. These two defenses create a great deal of adverse performs — first to 10 TFLs wins.
Prime-10 Battle within the Bowl https://t.co/NEAmilLnjt @MountaineerFB @RMAC_SPORTS @CollegeGameDay @PatMcAfeeShow @ESPN_BillC @FOXSports @BNKonFOX @espn @D2Football #7723ft #ThinAirCrew #BringGameDay2Gunni #BringYourMOJO
— Western Colorado Mountaineers (@WCUMountaineers) October 30, 2025
SP+ projection: Western Colorado by 6.0.