Lately, Week 9 of the faculty soccer season has been good at shutting down enjoyable upstart tales — or a minimum of severely wounding them.
Consider unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas ending off final season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Earlier than we get to November, the place practically every part we keep in mind from a given season occurs, we evidently need to declutter a bit.
Perhaps that claims foreboding issues this week about Texas A&M, with its highest ballot rating in 30 years, enjoying a determined LSU in Baton Rouge. Or an unbeaten BYU group enjoying at Iowa State. However how do the faculty soccer gods correctly declutter this season? Who’s the upstart that falls when No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri? How does an ACC race with 5 to seven contenders, none of whom have been the preseason favorites, get cleaned up?
The 2025 season has damaged containment, and as we careen towards November, let’s have a look at if it is even potential for it to begin making sense. Here is every part it’s essential to comply with in a cluttered Week 9.
One other big SEC tripleheader
Although there’s an opportunity the SEC race provides us one other Alabama-Georgia convention title recreation, I nonetheless consider we would have a significant plot twist or two. Week 9 will assist us determine who would possibly profit from that plot twist, because the league once more provides us a tripleheader of attention-grabbing matchups.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Tiger Stadium is usually an absolute cauldron at evening; the house group has gained eight straight on this sequence (six by a number of scores), and LSU is determined after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s most necessary activity is perhaps holding his unbeaten Aggies dialed in amid an early sea of noise and emotion.
The subsequent activity can be scoring factors. The Aggies have accomplished loads of that this season, however LSU ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and has but to permit greater than 10 factors at dwelling. The Tigers are higher towards the cross than the run, which could possibly be a problem — even with out the injured Le’Veon Moss, A&M averaged 6.2 yards per carry towards Arkansas final week. However on third-and-3 or extra, Marcel Reed and the Aggies are changing simply 23.5% of the time, 129th nationally. Tiger Stadium can get awfully loud on third down.
LSU’s offense is exhibiting indicators of enchancment. Even with main receiver Aaron Anderson restricted, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play towards South Carolina and Vanderbilt, although purple zone failures saved the purpose totals tamped down. Tight finish Trey’Dez Inexperienced is changing into a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball properly for as soon as towards Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can full even a few downfield passes, this turns into a really harmful group. Sadly, we’re nonetheless ready on that.
On passes thrown a minimum of 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a stunning 1-for-16 this season. If you cannot create simple factors from massive performs, and also you stink within the purple zone, it turns into awfully tough to attain touchdowns.
A&M is No. 3 within the nation, however the stakes are increased for the Tigers, each as a result of they’ve run out of margin for error within the playoff hunt and due to the growing warmth on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this group and this setting, they’re legit SEC, and doubtlessly nationwide title, contenders.
Present line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6
No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s Twentieth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America heart Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky managed the road of scrimmage, permitting simply 151 complete yards and getting simply sufficient offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP prime 10 … and did not return for 78 years. However right here they’re, ranked tenth and internet hosting Missouri and “School GameDay” on Saturday.
The Tigers and Commodores have misplaced solely to Alabama, and one can be 7-1 and within the thick of the SEC and playoff hunts heading into November. If Mizzou wins, it’s going to seemingly be Bear Bryant Kentucky-style, through the road of scrimmage. Ends Zion Younger and Damon Wilson II key a Tigers protection that ranks seventh in success charge*, and after struggling to get Ahmad Hardy and the run recreation going towards Alabama and Auburn, Missouri may get some respite towards a Vandy protection that ranks simply 62nd in yards allowed per carry (not together with sacks). The Commodores are good at limiting massive performs, however Mizzou may have a possibility to generate effectivity for quarterback Beau Pribula.
The Tigers higher do this as a result of Vandy’s offense is as environment friendly as they arrive: The Dores are first nationally in factors per drive and third in success charge. The offensive line is superb, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Younger common 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the perfect improviser within the sport. The passing recreation is not significantly explosive, but it surely’s actually laborious to knock Vandy off-schedule.
(* Success charge: How steadily an offense is gaining 50% of crucial yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)
Present line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3
No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (midday, ABC)
From significance and “types make fights” views, Ole Miss’ first journey to Norman is without doubt one of the most attention-grabbing video games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner can be in stable form within the SEC race and in nice form for the School Soccer Playoff. All over the place you look, it is both strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.
Ole Miss offense: twelfth in factors per drive
Oklahoma protection: second in factors per drive
Oklahoma offense: sixty fifth in factors per drive
Ole Miss protection: seventieth in factors per drive
Oklahoma boasts essentially the most aggressive protection in faculty soccer: Opponents have gained zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of snaps, most within the nation. Ole Miss, nonetheless, has by far the perfect offense the Sooners have confronted so far. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels simply scored 35 factors on a Georgia protection that had been permitting 17 per recreation. Chambliss’ No. 2 and three cross catchers (Deuce Alexander and tight finish Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, however Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. can often scheme up success.
In fact, Ole Miss additionally allowed 43 factors to the Dawgs. The Rebels are terrible towards the run, however OU hasn’t established a lot in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes through the cross, however Ole Miss is first rate in that regard (regardless of a poor cross rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged simply 4.5 yards per dropback since speeding again from a hand damage.
With the best way Ole Miss faltered late towards Georgia and the best way OU’s offense has carried out of late, I could possibly be talked right into a blowout in both route right here.
Present line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3
Who stays unbeaten?
We’re immediately down to only six unbeaten groups: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU and Navy. The Buckeyes are off, and we talked about A&M above, however here is what the opposite excellent groups have in retailer.
UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (midday, Fox)
Certainly UCLA cannot do it once more, proper? Prior to now three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), additional wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s sensible Indiana Hoosiers.
The Bruins have circled their season by creating damaging performs and turnovers on protection and operating the ball with ruthless effectivity behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making simply sufficient performs along with his legs to beat his sack-prone tendencies. (He is additionally working towards this week after struggling an damage towards Maryland final Saturday.)
In fact, Indiana virtually utterly avoids damaging performs and turnovers on offense and each defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack charge). The Hoosiers ought to deal with this take a look at fairly properly, although at this level, it is perhaps honest to ask, what would not Indiana do properly? The place would possibly the Hoosiers be susceptible to a problem between now and what appears like an inevitable battle with Ohio State within the Huge Ten championship recreation?
From a statistical standpoint, I can actually discover solely two areas of concern.
1. The Hoosiers are unusually poor on fourth downs. They’re simply 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this is able to be extra of an issue in the event that they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion charge (54.9%), however one thing’s off there.
2. They’re typically too aggressive up entrance. They’re first nationally in stuff charge (run stops at or behind the road), however once they hand over a profitable rush, it is a reasonably large one. Huge performs are holding them again a minimum of barely.
Granted, it is laborious to complain an excessive amount of a few protection that ranks third nationally in factors allowed per drive, however massive performs have been recognized to create upsets.
Present line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4
No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Not too way back, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. However after shedding cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL accidents, and with a nonexistent cross rush, the Cyclones gave up too many massive performs in highway losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense additionally failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into simply 17 factors.)
What do you do when your unbeaten season is ruined? Attempt to wreck another person’s! Coming off a bye week, ISU is considerably surprisingly favored at dwelling towards unbeaten BYU. The Cougars have already survived just a few tight Huge 12 contests. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a lower-efficiency, higher-explosiveness passer, and he is making a distinction within the run recreation. Can ISU make sufficient stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense sustain in a observe meet?
Present line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2
Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (midday, ESPN)
Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was misplaced for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his previous two video games, and the Orange have misplaced to Duke, SMU and Pitt by a median of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s protection is not wonderful however might be ok to maintain Syracuse caught in impartial.
In the meantime, the Tech offense is the perfect the Orange have confronted since Week 1 towards Tennessee. It could be nice for the Yellow Jackets if they might deal with this one simply sufficient that Haynes King is not compelled to run rather a lot and take a number of hits for as soon as.
Present line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7
Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)
FAU is a singular out. Zach Kittley’s Owls go for it on fourth down greater than half the time, they play on the nation’s second-fastest tempo they usually hunt massive performs. Sadly, in addition they rank one hundred and twentieth in success charge and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressiveness usually fails to supply factors (or give their protection a relaxation), they usually’ve misplaced 4 video games by a median of 27 factors. Blake Horvath and Navy are projected underdogs in every of their previous 4 video games — at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs. USF, at Memphis — however they need to transfer to 8-0 right here.
Present line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1
Two previous Huge Ten rivalries (and nice trophies)
They know trophies within the Huge Ten. In addition they know 5-2 information. Eight of the convention’s 18 groups are 5-2, and any of these groups that may win out and get to the end line at 10-2 can be within the CFP dialog.
This weekend provides us two of the game’s greatest trophy video games involving three members of the 5-2 membership.
Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It is actually laborious to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been preventing over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for 9 of the previous 10 years.
Iowa is the projected favourite on this one, each due to home-field benefit and since the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re seventeenth in speeding success charge, a large improve over a few years in the past, and although quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for simply 68 yards in final week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. In the meantime, Iowa is permitting simply 3.4 yards per carry, not together with sacks.
The bottom recreation might be all that issues in an Iowa-Minnesota recreation, however Minnesota is placing rather a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s proper arm, and he is holding up largely properly regardless of an inefficient floor recreation (103rd in speeding success charge). The Gophers have been additionally sensible final week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola 9 occasions, getting a 16-for-20 efficiency from Lindsey and even getting 148 speeding yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.
Present line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7
No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a fairly good reward in a sequence that has seen some current momentum shifts. Michigan State gained eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included some of the stunning endings of the twenty first century — however Michigan has gained 5 of the previous seven.
Each of those groups want this one. Michigan’s glorious 24-7 win over Washington final week laid out a situation through which the Wolverines are 9-2 and driving a five-game successful streak when Ohio State visits.
MSU, however, simply wants one thing constructive. The Spartans have misplaced 4 straight, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles confirmed flashes of enchancment early, however the Spartans’ offensive effectiveness has trailed off. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is starting to point out up on “sizzling seat” lists, and although that appears silly to me — you do not rent a man due to his long-term program-building prowess, then drop him in lower than two seasons — this may nonetheless virtually actually be State’s fourth shedding season in a row.
Present line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6
This week within the Group of 5
Memphis’ stunning loss to UAB final week threw the races for each the American title and the Group of 5’s assured playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first look, it looks as if USF is greatest poised to take benefit. Guess who will play towards one another this weekend? Memphis and USF! It is the gorgeous apparent G5 recreation of the week, although I’ve acquired one other attention-grabbing recreation to place in your radar, too.
No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (midday, ESPN2)
USF leaves little doubt. Aside from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have gained 5 video games by a median of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is each ridiculously explosive and, thanks partly to quarterback Byrum Brown’s legs, glorious on third downs. And after a median defensive SP+ rating of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are at present 57th.
If final week was only a “stuff occurs” loss for Memphis — interim-coached groups (like UAB) have been shockingly good to this point this season — the Tigers ought to have lots to supply, particularly at dwelling. They begin and end drives fantastically (eighth in three-and-out charge, third in purple zone TD charge), and although their cross rush is problematic, they management the road of scrimmage towards the run and pressure third-and-longs. They’ve a right away probability to proper final week’s wrongs and climb again to the highest of the convention pecking order.
Present line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1
San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
In case you’re searching for playoff options outdoors of the American, take a gander at San Diego State. Beginning with a 34-0 stomping of Cal, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have gained 4 straight, overachieving towards SP+ projections by 17.3 factors per recreation. They are not dependable but — they’ve scored 34-plus 4 occasions and underneath 14 twice, they usually’ve allowed 7.4 factors per recreation in wins and 36 of their lone loss. However nook Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s greatest playmakers, and if they will rating sufficient towards a stable Fresno State protection (not a given), their odds of reaching 11-1 enhance significantly.
Present line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7
It is Dakota Marker time!
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)
South Dakota State misplaced coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and greater than 20 transfers, together with quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS groups. North Dakota State misplaced just a few stars, too, together with operating again CharMar Brown (Miami) and security Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The switch portal can hit you particularly, laborious even on the FCS degree.
Oh proper, I virtually forgot: NDSU and SDSU are a mixed 14-0 this season.
SDSU’s stats have slipped barely, although massive quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the cross protection is as nasty as ever, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven video games. NDSU, nonetheless, has established a degree of dominance we’ve not seen from the Bison shortly. The defending FCS champs have outscored opponents by a median of 44-10, and just one opponent has stayed nearer than 27 factors. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing Mason-like stats, and the receiver trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based mostly on their present SP+ score, the Bison can be within the prime 40 in FBS.
We have seen intriguing performances from applications akin to Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), however till confirmed in any other case, these stay FCS’ defining applications. And for the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-versus-2 battle. The No. 2 group gained each of the earlier video games, and it would not be a shock if SDSU pulled off a house upset. However it might positively be an upset — the Bison have been at a unique degree to this point.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9
Week 9 chaos superfecta
We’re as soon as once more utilizing this house to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 fastidiously curated video games with fairly massive level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. We ended a three-week shedding streak with a two-fer final week, so we’re again to 4-4 for the yr.
This week, we set our sights on the Huge 12. SP+ says there’s solely a 54% probability that Cincinnati (75% win chance towards Baylor), Utah (86% towards Colorado), TCU (84% towards West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% towards Oklahoma State) all win. I say there is a 0% probability!
Week 9 playlist
Listed below are some extra video games you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.
Friday night
California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the previous few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. However the Golden Bears have gotten right here whereas beating just one group higher than ninetieth in SP+. Virginia Tech is barely 91st, however the interim-coached Hokies have been extra aggressive over the previous month and are favored regardless of their 2-5 document.
Present line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6
Early Saturday
Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). That is simply essentially the most stylistically attention-grabbing recreation of the week within the SEC. In league play, Auburn video games have averaged 32.8 complete factors, whereas Arkansas video games have averaged 76.0. It is like the 2 groups are enjoying completely different sports activities in the mean time, although they’re each shedding at these sports activities. (Mixed SEC document: 0-7.)
Present line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2
Northwestern at Nebraska (midday, FS1). One thing has clicked for Northwestern: The Wildcats have gained 4 in a row, and over the previous three, they’ve overachieved towards SP+ projections by 19.6 factors per recreation. Nebraska is favored for a motive, however Matt Rhule’s Huskers have been fairly poor in final week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s protection is simply nearly as good because the Gophers’.
Present line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2
Kansas State at Kansas (midday, TNT). Kansas State’s previous three video games have been its greatest three of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the opposite sideline tends to carry out the Wildcats’ greatest — they have not misplaced the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas acquired per week off to recuperate from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; through which route does the Jayhawks’ season go from right here?
Present line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7
No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (midday, ACCN). UVA tried fairly laborious to lose to Washington State at dwelling final week, whereas UNC went throughout the nation and performed its greatest recreation of 2025. It is a minimum of conceivable that Invoice Belichick’s Heels can pull a shock. Nonetheless, UVA’s offense is so clear, with minimal damaging performs and effectivity through run and cross, that the Cavaliers get the good thing about the doubt.
Present line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9
SMU at Wake Forest (midday, The CW). These groups went a mixed 4-4 in September however are 5-0 in October. Wake performs nice protection with essentially the most all-or-nothing offense you will see, and SMU’s protection has rounded again into type after a poor begin. The Mustangs want this one for ACC competition, however Jake Dickert has Wake shifting in a really enjoyable route.
Present line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8
Saturday afternoon
No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged simply 12.3 factors per recreation towards top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 towards defenses ranked eighty fifth or decrease. Illinois’ protection is within the center (forty eighth), so I suppose we assume the Huskies rating 30 or so? Illinois can most likely hit that mark towards a shaky-but-improving UW protection, too. This ought to be enjoyable.
Present line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9
No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a blowout loss at dwelling, South Carolina circled its 2024 season by practically toppling Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then successful six straight. The circumstances are even worse for the Gamecocks this time — final week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropped them to 3-4 — however possibly they nonetheless have a turnaround in them? Perhaps Alabama suffers a letdown after 4 straight wins towards ranked groups? Probably? Yeah, I am not satisfied both.
Present line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7
Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor lives to entertain: 5 of the Bears’ seven video games have topped 60 complete factors, they usually’re nineteenth in offensive SP+ and 98th on protection. Cincinnati would not thoughts a great observe meet, however the Bearcats’ bend-don’t-break protection has improved of late. With video games towards Utah and BYU looming, Cincy’s Huge 12 title hopes would take successful with an upset loss.
Present line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5
No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, however two losses went right down to the wire. So did Texas’ irritating time beyond regulation win at Kentucky final week. The MSU offense is rapidly shedding steam, however the Texas offense hasn’t actually had any. One assumes the elite Texas protection drives one other win, however this could possibly be tight for some time.
Present line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5
Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). WMU most likely did not need a bye final week — the smoking-hot Broncos have gained 4 straight since an 0-3 begin, overachieving towards projections by 21.3 factors per recreation. Now, they trek to Oxford to face a Miami group that has additionally gone from 0-3 to 4-3. The winner of this one heads into November’s midweek MACtion slate because the convention title favourite.
Present line: Miami -1.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 0.5
Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech (4 p.m., ESPNU). With quarterback Behren Morton injured, Tech suffered its first blemish of the season at Arizona State final week. Backup Will Hammond seems more likely to begin once more Saturday, however even with out Morton (or tortillas), one assumes the Purple Raiders ought to manhandle an OSU group that has fallen to an virtually inconceivable 121st in SP+.
Present line: Tech -38.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 39.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 34.6
Saturday night
Houston at No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). ASU has gained 11 of its previous 13 Huge 12 video games, and each of the losses have been with out Sam Leavitt. After Saturday’s injury-aided victory over Tech, the Solar Devils could possibly be in nice form to return to the convention title recreation with a win right here. However they will need to tackle a powerful Houston protection with out star receiver Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), and Houston’s offense is coming off two robust performances.
Present line: ASU -6.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: ASU by 0.9 | FPI projection: ASU by 6.0
No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (SECN). Kentucky confirmed indicators of life for the primary time shortly towards Texas. Was that the beginning of one thing or a final gasp? If it is the previous, Tennessee has underachieved towards SP+ projections for 5 straight video games and could possibly be susceptible after final week’s demoralizing loss to Bama. If it is the latter, by no means thoughts.
Present line: Vols -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 7.3
Stanford at No. 9 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Contemplate this a great temperature verify for Miami after its first setback of the season towards Louisville. The Hurricanes will seemingly roll over Stanford regardless, however with a giant journey to SMU looming, now’s the time for a bounce-back recreation from quarterback Carson Beck and fewer missed tackles from the protection.
Present line: Miami -29.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 29.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.6
Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., FS1). In opposition to groups ranked worse than sixtieth in SP+, Oregon has gone 5-0 with a median rating of 51-9. Wisconsin is most actually worse than sixtieth. In truth, after back-to-back shutout losses, the Badgers would most likely take the 9 factors if supplied. Hmm. Inform me why I listed this recreation?
Present line: Geese -32.5 | SP+ projection: Geese by 31.6 | FPI projection: Geese by 29.4
Late Saturday
Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah must win out to maintain its convention title hopes alive and is favored in every remaining recreation. However quarterback Devon Dampier is listed as questionable after an damage towards BYU, and Colorado has dropped hints of defensive competence. Kaidon Salter and the Buffaloes even have some big-play potential on offense. This one won’t be a gimme.
Present line: Utah -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.2
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shout-out for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. In addition to Dakota Marker, listed here are three video games you need to observe.
FCS: No. 16 Presbyterian at Dayton (12 p.m., YouTube). We’re getting fairly used to unimaginable turnaround tales in faculty soccer — hi there, Indiana and Vanderbilt — however hi there, Presbyterian. Of their first 16 years in FCS, the Blue Hose averaged 2.8 wins per season and gained greater than 4 video games as soon as. They have been recognized primarily for hiring the By no means Punts man in 2021, they usually went 1-10 in 2022, Steve Englehart’s first yr in cost. However they gained their final 4 video games of 2024, three by blowouts, to leap to 6-6 and eighty fifth in FCS SP+.
Seven video games into 2025, Englehart’s group is unbeaten and as much as sixteenth! They’re outscoring opponents by a median of 41-14. From quarterback Collin Hurst to a secondary that has picked off 10 passes, they haven’t any apparent weaknesses, they usually’re charging towards their first FCS playoff bid. This one could possibly be tough, although, as a result of Dayton is as much as thirty first in SP+. Final week’s tight loss to Butler ended a five-game successful streak, however the Flyers are permitting solely 16.1 factors per recreation.
SP+ projection: Presbyterian by 4.9.
Division II: No. 18 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). At all times make room for the Anchor-Bone Traditional! High-ranked Ferris State appears to be like nearly as good as ever regardless of having misplaced quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) and several other different offensive stars to high-level FBS rosters. Redshirt freshman quarterback Wyatt Bower is posting even higher numbers than Chambliss did, because the meeting line retains cranking out expertise. GVSU, nonetheless, wants this one. The Lakers are 4-2 after an upset loss to Saginaw Valley State final week, and their playoff résumé won’t stand up to one other defeat.
SP+ projection: Ferris State by 12.9.
Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 9 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., native streaming). Three weeks into my favourite small-school convention title race — D-III’s Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Convention — we have now a wonderful six-team logjam at 2-1. No. 12 Wisconsin-La Crosse hosts No. 24 Wisconsin-Oshkosh in a single matchup of 2-1 groups, however the massive one’s in Whitewater, Wisconsin, the place two top-five defenses, per SP+, will seemingly dictate one of many sport’s most bodily video games at any degree.
SP+ projection: UWW by 4.1.