My staff grades for the 2025 NBA draft, accomplished Thursday night time, are the one ones you may learn that are not involved with outcomes.
After the groups name of their picks, elements exterior their management — and even maybe exterior the participant’s management, significantly well being — will decide the outcomes. No staff, not even the Brooklyn Nets with their 5 first-round picks, drafts sufficient gamers in a single yr for that to even out.
Retaining that in thoughts, we’re evaluating picks primarily based on the data obtainable to us on the time they have been made by way of worth and match. I am relying closely on my stats-based projections for prospects, in addition to evaluation from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo.
Trades are additionally thought-about. Usually, groups overpay to maneuver up within the draft, overestimating their skill to judge prospects higher than their friends. Even by these requirements, this yr’s commerce up from No. 23 to No. 13 by the New Orleans Pelicans stands out as particularly dangerous. In consequence, the Pelicans received the worst grade of any staff whereas the Atlanta Hawks (who handled New Orleans) are tied for one of the best.
Let’s run by means of my grades for each staff.
It virtually did not matter whom the Hawks took after getting an unprotected 2026 first-round decide — the higher of these from Milwaukee and New Orleans — through the Pelicans to maneuver down 10 spots. I may need made that commerce straight up with out getting No. 23. All the higher that Atlanta did take a prospect ranked thirteenth in my projections.
Time will inform if Newell cracks the rotation rapidly sufficient to pair with newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis, however I really like that match since Porzingis’ strengths match completely with the shortcomings that make Newell one thing of a ahead/heart tweener.
Gonzalez would have made extra sense for Boston as a stash decide, to return over later in his growth. As a substitute, Brad Stevens indicated the Celtics plan to convey him to the NBA subsequent season.
On the published, Gonzalez was in comparison with Denver Nuggets wing Christian Braun. One key distinction: Braun, although not considered a shooter, hit 38% of his 3s in school. Gonzalez shot 27% at Actual Madrid.
Williams is an intriguing prospect with a number of strengths as a rebounder, rim protector and facilitator on the elbow. Nevertheless, he shot simply 54% profession on 2s, very poor for a middle who would not stretch the ground. Shulga, the final of Boston’s three picks, really projected finest my mannequin due to his 39% profession 3-point capturing.
The record-setting quantity of first-round picks the Nets made is sort of extra necessary from a course of standpoint than the picks themselves, one motive I graded the trades to amass them effectively.
That stated, Brooklyn is betting on growing a outstanding variety of youngsters, lots of them with overlapping ability units. Specifically, Demin and Traore share a variety of traits as sturdy playmakers with dimension whose capturing and scoring effectivity want work. They’ll play collectively defensively, however spacing the ground with these teams may show difficult.
Drafting so many initiatives ought to assist the Nets’ efforts to land within the lottery once more in 2026, the final yr they management their first-round decide earlier than the Houston Rockets get it in 2027.
Cue the jokes concerning the Hornets’ penchant for drafting gamers from the Analysis Triangle, however Knueppel was second in my projections and completely matches a void for Charlotte at capturing guard.
Though the identical was true of Tre Johnson, Knueppel was a much more environment friendly scorer at Duke and rated higher by my metrics than Johnson in a bigger on-ball position within the Nike EYBL.
Since McNeeley matches an identical mildew, that was seemingly a best-available decide after the UConn product dropped effectively under his anticipated vary within the early 20s. I am much less enamored with the Hornets going again to the Blue Devils effectively for James excessive within the second spherical. Strictly a task participant in 5 school seasons, James by no means had a utilization fee increased than 17.1%.
After Charlotte traded beginning heart Mark Williams, there could also be a gap for Kalkbrenner to contribute instantly if his pick-and-roll protection is up to the mark.
Spherical 1: Noa Essengue (No. 12)
Spherical 2: Lachlan Olbrich (No. 55)
I am intrigued by how Essengue will match with 2024 lottery decide Matas Buzelis, one other younger combo ahead. In the event that they two shoot effectively sufficient to play collectively at ahead or Buzelis bulks up sufficient to play heart at instances, they’d give Chicago mixed strengths of size and athleticism.
Credit score to the Bulls for taking one of the best participant obtainable and persevering with to draft younger, regardless of their resistance to bottoming out and choosing increased within the lottery.
Spherical 2: Tyrese Proctor (No. 49), Saliou Niang (No. 58)
The Cavaliers did not get on the clock till effectively into night time two of the draft and landed an fascinating prospect in Proctor, who continued to develop post-one-and-done hype. Proctor shot 40.5% on 3s final season and reveals promise as an on-ball defender, although he may stand to enhance his steal fee. Niang, a stash decide, faces longer odds on account of his capturing: 26% profession on 3s and 71% from the foul line.
Spherical 1: Cooper Flagg (No. 1)
How lengthy do you suppose the Mavericks’ entrance workplace spent debating this decide? From the second Dallas’ mixture unexpectedly got here up No. 1 within the draft lottery, we knew Flagg was the decide, and rightfully so.
From a course of standpoint, they do not get credit score for profitable the lottery, just for not screwing it up.
Get used to seeing the Nuggets graded “incomplete.” They did not management any future second-round decide earlier than gaining access to their 2032 second-rounder when the draft concluded and nonetheless owe a pair of protected first-round picks, beginning in 2027.
Spherical 2: Chaz Lanier (No. 37)
Very like Tennessee predecessor Dalton Knecht, Lanier bloomed late, going from 4.7 PPG at North Florida in 2022-23 to 18 PPG within the SEC final season. He is a big-time shooter (40% profession on 3s) with dimension who offers the Pistons some insurance coverage if they cannot re-sign free brokers Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Spherical 2: Alex Toohey (No. 52), Will Richard (No. 56)
Toohey’s capturing remains to be a piece in progress after he hit 31% within the Australian NBL final season, however his defensive exercise stood out by way of steal and block charges. I’ve lengthy favored Richard, who ranked within the prime 30 of my projections by advantage of his excessive 2-point share.
The Rockets used each of this yr’s picks to amass Kevin Durant in a commerce that may’t formally be accomplished till July 6. In consequence, take into account them a winner regardless of their sturdy monitor document within the draft.
Spherical 2: Kam Jones (No. 38), Taelon Peter (No. 54)
The Pacers have made certainly one of my favourite second-round picks two years in a row. Not like 2024 second-rounder Johnny Furphy, who performed sparingly as a rookie at age 20, the 23-year-old Jones has extra potential to contribute instantly. Indiana may use the guard assist with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined after his heartbreaking Achilles rupture throughout Sport 7 of the NBA Finals
Peter, who spent the majority of his school profession at D-II Arkansas Tech, is an interesting swing. He is a guard who averaged simply 1.0 APG as a fifth-year senior at Liberty, however why move whenever you shoot 76% on 2s and 45% on 3s? I am unsure that can translate, however on the 54th decide, there is not any draw back for Indiana.
Spherical 1: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (No. 30)
Spherical 2: Kobe Sanders (No. 50)
As a second-round decide, I may purchase the worth proposition on the late-blooming Niederhauser, an impressive shot blocker who grew right into a scoring menace after transferring to Penn State.
Taking him within the first spherical is a harder promote, given Niederhauser is a below-average defensive rebounder and posted greater than twice as many assists as turnovers. The general profile is just like Daniel Oturu, drafted No. 33 by the Clippers in 2020.
Sanders was a late bloomer as effectively, not having averaged double-figure scoring till his fourth yr in school. My projections put extra weight on earlier school seasons primarily based on how standing out early has usually been a greater indicator.
Spherical 2: Adou Thiero (No. 36)
Kudos to the Lakers for utilizing money to maneuver up from No. 55 all the best way to 36 after making a pair of trades. Thiero’s steal and block charges recommend defensive potential if he could make sufficient exterior photographs to remain on the courtroom. Thiero was a profession 28% school 3-point shooter.
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Why the Grizzlies chosen Cedric Coward
Take a look at the performs that led Cedric Coward to the Grizzlies within the first spherical of the NBA Draft.
Spherical 1: Cedric Coward (No. 11)
Spherical 2: Javon Small (No. 48), Jahmai Mashack (No. 59)
It would not be a Grizzlies draft with no commerce up, their fourth within the first spherical since 2019. Going up two spots for Brandon Clarke labored out. Giving up extra worth to get Jake LaRavia and Ziaire Williams didn’t.
On this case, Memphis despatched one of many unprotected Orlando first-round picks acquired within the Desmond Bane commerce to maneuver up 5 picks, questionable worth at finest. Do not take this as an indictment of Coward, who ranked thirteenth within the stats-only model of my projections. However I’d have been content material to attend no less than till certainly one of Coward or Carter Bryant (No. 14) was off the board to look into shifting up.
I favored the Grizzlies’ worth with Small, who’s — fittingly — undersized however scored effectively contemplating his 28% utilization fee as a senior at West Virginia. Mashack, who topped out at 6.0 PPG as a senior at Tennessee, would have match the Grit n’ Grind Grizzlies along with his energetic protection.
Spherical 1: Kasparas Jakucionis (No. 20)
Actually Jakucionis is an imperfect prospect. His steal and block charges are troublingly low, and he additionally struggled with turnovers in his lone season at Illinois.
This nonetheless appears like an overcorrection for a participant who was ranked within the prime 10 a lot of the yr, and Miami took benefit with one of many draft’s higher worth picks.
Spherical 2: Bogoljub Markovic (No. 47)
No prospect the Bucks may have drafted on the forty seventh decide was going to change Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee. Markovic scored effectively in his first full season within the Adriatic League, capturing 61% on 2s and 37% on 3s, although low steal and block charges increase defensive questions.
Spherical 1: Joan Beringer (No. 17)
Spherical 2: Rocco Zikarsky (No. 45)
The Timberwolves can certainly envision how Beringer, a low-usage heart who was a premier rim protector taking part in in Slovenia, will match of their system. It is unrealistic to count on Beringer to develop into Rudy Gobert, a premier finisher with a wingspan measured 4 inches increased on the NBA Draft mix.
However as Gobert ages, Minnesota will want a alternative and Beringer has the potential to fill that void.
Within the second spherical, the Timberwolves doubled down on that position by taking the 7-foot-3 Zikarsky. The 2 gamers have remarkably related projections and it is going to be fascinating to see how Minnesota handles their simultaneous growth.
Spherical 1: Jeremiah Fears (No. 7), Derik Queen (No. 13)
Spherical 2: Micah Peavy (No. 40)
It is attainable for a commerce just like the Pelicans made to take Queen at No. 13 to work out. The Phoenix Suns gave up an unprotected future first-rounder in 2018 to maneuver up six spots and by no means regretted touchdown Mikal Bridges.
Nonetheless, New Orleans is betting closely on its analysis that Queen is each much less helpful than Fears and nonetheless value shifting as much as get. And the draw back is increased as a result of the Pelicans’ personal 2026 decide is probably a part of the deal. At the least Bridges was a prospect who rated sixth general in my projections. Queen was exterior the highest 30.
I did like New Orleans eschewing must take Fears at No. 7, when he was the consensus finest prospect on the board. With hindsight, nevertheless, the Pelicans can be higher off having drafted Queen with their very own decide than touchdown each prospects.
Peavy broke out as a fifth-year senior at Georgetown, averaging 17.2 PPG and a couple of.3 SPG. The leap to 40% 3-point capturing offers Peavy a shot at a 3-and-D position, although he did not present the identical enchancment on the foul line (66%).
Spherical 2: Mohamed Diawara (No. 51)
Diawara hasn’t but developed into an impression participant in his native France, having averaged simply 5.8 PPG for Cholet final season. Stashing Diawara abroad would possibly make extra sense than having him take up a roster spot.
Spherical 1: Thomas Sorber (No. 15)
Spherical 2: Brooks Barnhizer (No. 44)
As with Beringer, the imaginative and prescient right here is evident. Sorber posted terrific defensive numbers at Georgetown and was a powerful passer for a freshman heart, recording extra assists than turnovers.
Squint and you’ll see the define of Isaiah Hartenstein, prone to be an odd man out as Oklahoma Metropolis’s core grows costlier.
Missing roster spots for a number of first-round picks, the Thunder pushed the No. 24 decide down the highway in a cope with Sacramento that lacks upside (Oklahoma Metropolis cannot decide increased than No. 17), however higher matches the timeline for the champs.
Barnhizer can be on a two-way contract, per Givony. He was an inefficient school scorer (.500 true capturing share) who racked up steals and blocks at Northwestern.
Spherical 1: Jase Richardson (No. 25)
Spherical 2: Noah Penda (No. 32)
There’s enjoyable symmetry in Richardson going to certainly one of his father Jason Richardson’s 4 NBA groups, and I like the worth too.
Richardson was projected within the lottery earlier than measuring in at 6-foot and a half in naked ft within the NBA Draft mix. Such dramatic shifts at all times confuse me. Richardson nonetheless produced what he did at Michigan State.
Orlando would not want Richardson to contribute now, however he can develop right into a rotation participant when the Magic are feeling the impact of giving up 4 first-rounders to amass Bane.
Orlando then paid a heavy worth — No. 46 and No. 57, plus two future second-rounders — to commerce up and take Penda. Penda’s capturing is a piece in progress. He hit beneath 70% of his free throws final season.
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V.J. Edgecombe’s household emotional after draft choice
V.J. Edgecombe, alongside along with his mom and brother, get emotional whereas recounting their story from the Bahamas to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Spherical 1: VJ Edgecombe (No. 3)
Spherical 2: Johni Broome (No. 35)
Though Knueppel was a little bit forward in my projections, I most likely would have taken Edgecombe right here too. I like his mixture of a defensive base to construct from with a sky-high steal fee at Baylor and the athleticism to develop into a shot creator in time.
Knueppel may need match extra cleanly with Joel Embiid, however given the state of Embiid’s well being, I am unsure that must be Philadelphia’s main timeline anymore.
A consensus first staff All-America decide final season, Broome may assist the Sixers instantly. He brings extra ability to the middle spot than the backups (Andre Drummond and Adem Bona) who struggled to fill in for Embiid final season.
Spherical 1: Khaman Maluach (No. 10)
Spherical 2: Rasheer Fleming (No. 31), Koby Brea (No. 41)
A Duke heart falling within the laps of the frontcourt-needy Suns made it a bit extra complicated they concurrently traded to amass former Duke heart Mark Williams in a deal graded individually.
It is value questioning, significantly in that context, whether or not Phoenix may have gotten the precious trades down that groups simply behind them made. As Maluach was the highest prospect on the board, nevertheless, standing pat made extra sense for the Suns.
Energetic within the second spherical, Phoenix used future picks to maneuver as much as the highest decide and No. 41. Groups have been competing to take Saint Joseph’s ahead Rasheer Fleming, twelfth in my stats-only projections. Fleming offers the Suns one other high quality shot blocker, this time with extra vary. Although Brea is yet one more capturing guard on a staff overloaded with them, Phoenix may use his capturing — he has the best ability projection as a shooter of any participant in my database — significantly if Grayson Allen will get traded elsewhere.
Spherical 1: Yang Hansen (No. 16)
Hansen might show an All-Star. He may lead the Blazers into championship competition. None of that’s knowable now. What we do know is different groups did not appear to worth Hansen as a lot as Portland, which means the staff is betting on its skill to beat the market.
To the Blazers’ credit score, they did decide up an additional first-round decide by shifting down. Nevertheless, they might have been much better off making the identical commerce the Hawks did if obtainable.
Spherical 1: Nique Clifford (No. 24)
Spherical 2: Maxime Raynaud (No. 42)
Having despatched the No. 13 decide to Atlanta to finish the Kevin Huerter commerce, the Kings tapped into the additional first-rounders coming from the De’Aaron Fox deal to get again within the first spherical. Sacramento restricted the attainable draw back of the transfer by placing top-16 safety on the decide, which has solely a one-year window to convey.
My mannequin was decrease on Clifford than scouts as a result of he did not emerge as a critical NBA prospect till his fifth yr of school at age 23. Time will inform how a lot of that was Clifford legitimately enhancing his ability, versus using an expertise benefit that will not carry over.
Scouts have been additionally increased on Raynaud, largely due to his subpar block fee for a middle. Nevertheless, my mannequin missed on Quinten Put up final yr, and Raynaud brings an identical ability set after hitting 67 3-pointers as a senior.
Spherical 1: Dylan Harper (No. 2), Carter Bryant (No. 14)
Harper was at all times the consensus No. 2 decide, so other than contemplating attainable blockbuster trades, San Antonio’s work there was performed early.
The Spurs get extra credit score from a course of standpoint for his or her different lottery decide, the place they waited out Bryant falling to them. I am excessive on Bryant’s 3-and-D potential, making him a really perfect match on a staff that is overflowing with shot creation between Harper, Fox and Victor Wembanyama.
Spherical 1: Collin Murray-Boyles (No. 9)
Spherical 2: Alijah Martin (No. 39)
I am a believer that Murray-Boyles’ unorthodox sport will translate to the NBA, although Toronto wasn’t essentially a really perfect touchdown spot.
If he will succeed as an influence ahead, Murray-Boyles wants capturing round him, and the Raptors have a non-shooting heart in Jakob Poeltl and solely enough perimeter capturing.
If 2024 second-round decide Jonathan Mogbo can develop 3-point vary after capturing 24% as a rookie, the 2 undersized huge males may an fascinating frontcourt pairing that is excessive on impression defensive performs.
Martin is undersized for a capturing guard at 6-foot-2 however productive in school. He ranked twenty sixth in my stats-only projections.
Spherical 1: Ace Bailey (No. 5), Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 18)
Spherical 2: John Tonje (No. 53)
I’ve in contrast Bailey to the Boston Celtics’ duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum popping out of school by way of the profit to him going to a contending staff, the place he’d be requested to refine his shot choice.
That comparability seems particularly related with the identical executives who took these wings (Austin and Danny Ainge) taking Bailey to affix an Utah staff that is nonetheless removed from profitable. The worth proposition for Bailey, fifth in my mannequin, is sensible right here. And I am not significantly anxious that Bailey did not wish to land right here.
However the Jazz should fastidiously handle his growth to show Bailey into a fringe star just like the Celtics did with Brown and Tatum. Including Clayton, an NCAA champion and harmful exterior shooter, may assist that course of. Utah has a crowded backcourt, however veterans Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton will not be a part of that for lengthy, creating alternative for Clayton.
At 24, Tonje was the oldest participant chosen, so his skill to get to the foul line practically seven instances per sport at Wisconsin as a sixth-year senior is value discounting. However Tonje hitting them at 91% clip and 38% of his 3s profession ought to translate higher to the NBA.
Spherical 1: Tre Johnson (No. 6), Will Riley (No. 21)
Spherical 2: Jamir Watkins (No. 43)
Just like the Nets, the Wizards are leaning closely into youth, taking two extra youngsters to go together with the 4 they added from the 2024 first spherical. (That features AJ Johnson, acquired on the deadline.)
I used to be skeptical of Johnson as a top-five prospect due to his poor defensive metrics and low 2-point share. Outdoors that vary, his potential as a shooter does extra to justify the decide. Riley went a little bit forward of the place I had him and in addition should enhance his defensive playmaking.
Watkins, who will flip 24 in July, brings extra expertise. There isn’t any questioning Watkins’ defensive potential. Enhancing 32.5% profession 3-point capturing can be a swing ability.
