We’re again for an additional yr to attract professional comparisons for ESPN’s projected lottery prospects within the 2025 NBA draft, which runs from June 25-26 (8 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN).
It is usually a helpful train, if performed responsibly. Generally that is simpler stated than performed, as it is a course of that always invitations hyperbole.
The aim right here is not to attract an ideal comparability for every of the 14 projected lottery picks — we might be assured to be unsuitable. This train serves as a lens to consider a prospect’s future function, study his vary of potential outcomes, and take into account which areas of improvement are most important to long-term success.
This sort of thought course of may help in participant analysis from a conceptual standpoint and in envisioning how a prospect’s profile would possibly match a sure group.
With that in thoughts, and with the draft just some weeks away, let’s take a look at each high- and low-end comparisons for every prospect projected to be drafted among the many first 14 picks, plus a bonus choice who’s on groups’ radars as a possible lottery decide.
Extra NBA draft protection:
Finest commerce supply for the No. 1 decide?
Mock draft: Flagg to the Mavs and extra
Draft belongings | Prime 100 rankings | Pelton’s prime 30
Mock draft projection: No. 1 to Mavericks | Prime 100: No. 1
Excessive finish: Jayson Tatum with extra protection
Low finish: Andre Iguodala with extra offense
Flagg is the consensus No. 1 decide for good motive: Statistically and empirically talking, he is on a trajectory to turn into one of many prime wings within the NBA. The query that has been requested all season, together with by NBA executives, has been about what sort of heights Flagg will attain. His well-rounded offense and stellar protection give him unimaginable baseline versatility for an 18-year-old getting into the league, one thing the Mavericks ought to be capable to exploit to their benefit subsequent season. Some across the league have likened him to a contemporary Scottie Pippen, whereas Flagg himself has stated he patterns his sport after Tatum, who’s his favourite participant.
If Flagg continues to make strides creating his personal shot — the place he has flashed consolation stage within the midrange however wants refinement — the potential for a Tatum-like scoring leap is on the desk. He has improved that aspect of his sport over the previous couple of years, turning into extra comfy from lengthy vary and leaving room for optimism that he’ll develop comfy improvising and working off the bounce. If he would not evolve right into a professional No. 1 choice, he would possibly settle finest as a second star alongside a extra scoring-oriented teammate.
Whereas Flagg figures to supply extra offensively than Iguodala, who by no means topped the 20-point-per-game mark in his profession, that comparability illustrates the methods he would possibly add worth aside from placing the ball within the basket by himself. As is the case with most of those comparisons, the possible consequence is commonly someplace within the center. In his case, the vary of prospects is extra thrilling than anxiety-inducing for NBA evaluators.
Mock draft projection: No. 2 to Spurs | Prime 100: No. 2
Excessive finish: Jalen Brunson however greater
Low finish: D’Angelo Russell
Harper’s mix of dimension, energy, scoring and playmaking makes him a extremely enticing professional prospect, with the ability set to steer an offense as a high-usage star in a best-case state of affairs. Though Harper’s dimension (6-foot-6, 215 kilos) ought to make him a extra precious participant on the defensive finish, the Brunson comp is sensible by a macro lens: Each depend on craft, creating contact and attacking angles to control defenses. Brunson was a greater 3-point shooter popping out of Villanova, one thing Harper must enhance over time to maximise his potential. However there is a world the place he will get there and turns into a foundational participant and offensive fulcrum.
Harper’s excessive ground, due partly to his dimension benefit dealing with the ball, is a giant a part of his enchantment — his mixture of strengths makes it laborious to see him flunking the NBA check. In projecting his lower-end outcomes, the chances are nonetheless that he turns into a viable starting-caliber participant. He might wind up as a mean shooter, and his defensive impression might be inconsistent based mostly on previous tendencies. These prospects would restrict his impression on profitable video games as a No. 1 or No. 2 choice, however his sport might nonetheless scale down successfully.
Russell, who was the No. 2 decide in 2015 and an All-Star in his fourth season, has been a productive participant, however he nonetheless hasn’t discovered how you can lead a constant profitable group. Harper must be impactful early on, however how his profession unfolds from there’ll depend upon context and continued enchancment.
Mock draft projection: No. 3 to 76ers | Prime 100: No. 3
Excessive finish: Michael Porter Jr.
Low finish: Andrew Wiggins
Bailey is the draft’s most dynamic shotmaker, a ability that makes plain his vital scoring potential. The foremost long-term query is how he’ll harness it, with the remainder of Bailey’s ability set nonetheless creating. He has the dimensions to rise and shoot over most defenders, a knack for making off-balance photographs, and a stroke that tasks effectively catching and capturing from vary.
However he is not a naturally artistic ball handler, tending to choose up his dribble and accept a shot slightly than weave his approach round defenses, making his model predictable at occasions, albeit not at all times straightforward to cease.
It is tough to financial institution on Bailey creating the playmaking means and deal with that may warrant heavy on-ball utilization, which makes Porter Jr. an fascinating participant to think about as a comp. As a draft prospect out of Missouri in 2018, Porter had related questions round his passing and dealing with abilities, and he benefited from touchdown with the Denver Nuggets, a group the place his capturing has been maximized by having playmakers round him, and the place he hasn’t been requested to step out of his consolation zone as a creator.
It is simple to see Bailey’s effectivity and sport remodeling positively in that sort of context as a second or third scorer, nevertheless it’s tougher at this stage of his profession to squint and see a bona fide No. 1 choice. If that by no means occurs, his profession might wind up extra within the vein of Wiggins, who has been a productive scorer his complete profession however hasn’t at all times been an adjunct to profitable basketball.
Mock draft projection: No. 4 to Hornets | Prime 100: No. 4
Excessive finish: Victor Oladipo
Low finish: Jaden Ivey
The elevator pitch with Edgecombe facilities largely across the chance that he develops right into a succesful on-ball creator, the place his velocity, energy and elite explosiveness might finest create issues for defenses.
Getting him the reps he must make that leap will likely be the 1st step wherever he lands, however the downhill, hyperathletic slashing mould he matches makes Oladipo a sound level of comparability. It took Oladipo time to settle in within the NBA, and he broke out absolutely in his fifth season (2017-18) earlier than a 2019 knee damage derailed his profession. There are some similarities of their kinds of play and trajectories getting into the league, together with the necessity to develop a extra constant exterior shot and flesh out their means to create offense whereas dealing with the ball.
Edgecombe has All-Star upside if all the things clicks for him. Whereas there’s threat constructed into his profile given the extent of changes he would possibly want to maximise his bodily instruments, it is also straightforward to see a helpful ground because of his possible worth as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition participant.
The Ivey comparability is a bit difficult as a result of the Detroit Pistons guard remains to be creating in his personal proper, however issues began to click on for him this previous season earlier than an damage in January. Slashing guards on this mould who need to be taught to make good choices with the ball usually take time to search out success.
The vary of outcomes for Edgecombe offensively is likely to be fairly extensive, however at worst, he ought to nonetheless be a extremely helpful backcourt contributor — including to his enchantment as a top-five choice.
Mock draft projection: No. 5 to Jazz | Prime 100: No. 7
Excessive finish: Monta Ellis
Low finish: Jerryd Bayless
Fears’ profile has fascinating stylistic parts that make him a difficult comp. He will get downhill and pressures the paint with extra daring and craft than a typical guard his dimension, however he is additionally not a traditionally good 3-point shooter (28.4% on 3s at Oklahoma this previous season), making for a kind of a throwback baseline archetype.
Contemplating his age (18) and the progress he made with the Sooners, Fears has an opportunity to be a harmful scorer and playmaker, however there’s so much using on whether or not he could be environment friendly. Both his perimeter capturing must progress — a possible factor to count on, contemplating his sturdy free throw percentages (85.1% this previous season) — or his inside scoring must translate effectively sufficient to prop up the remainder of his sport.
Though this tracks again a decade or so, Ellis is an fascinating stylistic comparability as a smaller high-volume scorer and creator who struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-distance capturing for a lot of his profession. It is actually potential Fears might surpass that, nevertheless it’s additionally possibly a giant step to financial institution on him turning into a top-end soar shooter, albeit he ought to enhance as he good points energy and expertise. If that does not occur, he might find yourself as extra of a Bayless sort — a combo bench scorer in the long term, providing developmental draw back given how excessive a group must choose him on draft night time.
Fears’ main flashes of expertise go away room for optimism, however there is a considerably extensive berth of outcomes given all of the variables that have to go his strategy to turn into a star.
Mock draft projection: No. 6 to Wizards | Prime 100: No. 5
Excessive finish: Michael Redd
Low finish: Cam Thomas, however taller
Johnson is a reasonably easy prospect to know. He is possible going to shoot it effectively; he is in all probability going to shoot so much; and no matter else he finally ends up giving his future group will likely be gravy, not essentially baked into their expectations.
Johnson’s clear and compact stroke will make him a risk from lengthy vary, and he has flashed means to get to it off the dribble, with a stage of fearlessness required to succeed as a quantity scorer but additionally one that may get him into hassle with shot choice at occasions. His effectivity contained in the paint and ending must enhance, too.
If Johnson can come near the kind of profession Redd put collectively (though Redd’s peak within the early 2000s was finally hampered by severe knee accidents in 2009), that may be a reasonably excellent end result, and there are some related parts right here. Redd turned one of many prime 3-point shooters of his period and shouldered a heavy workload due extra to the specter of his unorthodox jumper than anything. It is price underscoring that Johnson is effectively forward of Redd on the similar age (the latter was a profession 31.9% shooter from 3 at Ohio State and a second-round decide). Johnson’s mechanics are far cleaner and undertaking extra safely.
It is a cheap wager Johnson can evolve right into a dynamic quantity shooter — the query is whether or not he can do it effectively, and whether or not he’ll be capable to do it in a profitable context. These are related questions which have hovered over Thomas’ worth because of related tendencies he has proven 4 years into his NBA profession (2021-25).
Mock draft projection: No. 7 to Pelicans | Prime 100: No. 6
Excessive finish: Rudy Gobert, however faster
Low finish: Daniel Gafford, however greater
Maluach matches neatly into the rim-protecting, rim-running middle archetype that has remained precious by the NBA’s varied stylistic shifts of the previous couple of many years. He’s nonetheless studying the sport and enhancing his defensive habits; his sheer dimension acts as a deterrent within the paint, with above-average mobility for his 7-2 body that factors to main defensive upside. An environment friendly finisher who is restricted in different methods offensively, Maluach might finally turn into a topflight participant inside his mould.
Whereas Gobert can learn as a barely apparent comparability level for paint-protecting 7-footers, on this case, it illustrates Maluach’s upside as a participant who might doubtlessly present main defensive spine in a profitable context. It is actually not a provided that he’ll attain NBA Defensive Participant of the 12 months-caliber heights, however there’s safety in what he presents already, coupled with the possible areas for enchancment, notably if he provides a 3-point shot.
Maluach’s ground as a helpful contributor feels fairly sound regardless: Facilities together with his sheer dimensions, above-average mobility and function consciousness — such because the comp to Gafford — have a tendency to search out their place within the league.
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Duke’s Khaman Maluach a participant to look at within the NBA draft
Duke huge man Khaman Maluach, who got here up by the NBA Academy Africa, is a participant to look at within the NBA draft.
Mock draft projection: No. 8 to Nets | Prime 100: No. 8
Excessive finish: Desmond Bane
Low finish: Joe Harris
Knueppel has a case as one of the best shooter within the draft, nevertheless it’s the breadth of his all-around offensive sport that has elevated him as a possible top-five decide. NBA groups have been pleasantly shocked by Knueppel’s decision-making and passing acumen at Duke, the place he succeeded in a big function that required him to facilitate offense and house the ground at a excessive stage. His common athletic profile — he is not particularly quick or fast — is the first concern in his projection, doubtlessly capping a few of his high-end outcomes if he is not in a position to create elite-level offense.
Bane was an undervalued draft prospect in 2020 popping out of TCU, the place he was a profession 43.2% 3-point shooter however was seen as a mean athlete with brief arms who lacked big-time upside. He outkicked these expectations quick, turning into an important participant for the Grizzlies in his second season, with Memphis investing in his ability set and the prospect he might turn into greater than merely a 3-and-D participant, giving him alternatives to make performs and shoulder extra duty. Though he will not sneak up on anybody the best way Bane did, Knueppel’s best-case situations fall alongside these strains.
Contemplating Knueppel’s age (he turns 20 on Aug. 3, whereas Bane performed 4 years in school), his profession peak might surpass Bane’s in the suitable state of affairs, including to NBA groups’ bullishness on his future. If issues do not fairly click on for him as a shot creator deserving of heavy bandwidth, Knueppel ought to nonetheless be a prime shooter who performs precious minutes on good groups in a lesser capability, just like Harris.
Mock draft projection: No. 9 to Raptors | Prime 100: No. 14
Excessive finish: Al Horford
Low finish: Xavier Tillman
Murray-Boyles tasks as a stable gadget participant within the frontcourt, able to enjoying all around the ground on offense because of his clever passing, guarding a number of positions utilizing his size, plus his physicality and toughness. Maximizing his potential depends upon the event of his questionable 3-point shot; if he can current a risk from exterior, it will assist cowl for his lack of excellent dimension at energy ahead.
If his shot develops, Murray-Boyles might wind up within the vein of a contemporary Horford — a flexible huge who could be instrumental to profitable as a defensive stalwart with complementary offensive utility.
If Murray-Boyles have been to utterly stagnate on the NBA stage — an unlikely state of affairs, contemplating his age (he turns 20 on June 10) and trajectory — he ought to nonetheless maintain down a spot on a roster as a helpful depth participant à la Tillman, who shared a few of his intrinsic strengths however was older and much much less cell popping out of Michigan State.
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Collin Murray-Boyles makes an important defensive play for the steal
Collin Murray-Boyles makes an important defensive play for the steal
Mock draft projection: No. 10 to Rockets | Prime 100: No. 10
Excessive finish: Austin Reaves
Low finish: Delon Wright
Jakucionis is a savvy playmaker as a 6-6 guard, with the instincts and ability stage to deal with the ball and an enhancing capturing stroke. Reliant on tempo, timing and improvisation as a substitute of top-end velocity, he excels in display screen conditions and performs an unselfish model that ought to permit him to succeed whether or not or not he develops right into a full-time lead guard. He has to enhance his ball safety (3.7 turnovers per sport) and 3-point capturing (31.8%), however his demanding function at Illinois required him to take dangers and contributed to a few of these inefficiencies.
It is possible Jakucionis will wind up valued equally to Reaves, one other artful combo guard with whom he shares stylistic similarities. Reaves entered the NBA at a a lot older age and labored his approach right into a mainstay for the Los Angeles Lakers in brief order. Jakucionis would possibly take longer, however he’s effectively forward of the place Reaves, who performed 4 years in school and went undrafted out of Oklahoma, was on the similar age.
And in a worst-case state of affairs, his well-rounded ability set and skill to play each guard spots ought to nonetheless warrant a long-term spot within the NBA as a reserve.
Mock draft projection: No. 11 to Path Blazers | Prime 100: No. 11
Excessive finish: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey
Low finish: Kyle Anderson
It is simple to see the enchantment and sheer expertise Demin brings as an outsized playmaker, with arguably one of the best passing imaginative and prescient within the class. These kinds of gamers are ever-popular, with NBA groups coveting dimension and really feel on the perimeter that may scale into an array of roles.
There are two key components in Demin’s projection: How a lot time he’ll earn dealing with the ball and his consistency from lengthy vary. His below-average foot velocity and streaky 3-point stroke create some threat components. He is not fast creating off the dribble and might want to maintain defenses trustworthy together with his shot to maximise his pathway to minutes.
Though not good comparisons, Giddey, a traditionally below-average shooter who’s at his finest making performs with the ball, and Avdija, who has settled previously couple of seasons as a multiskilled off-ball ahead, can be utilized for instance completely different roles Demin might finally settle into. Whether or not he is able to enjoying as a quasi-lead guard or provides extra worth as a connective participant away from the ball stays to be seen, however each pathways are possible relying how he develops.
If his improvement stagnates and would not result in a prime rotation function, he might nonetheless present long-term utility depth, just like the best way Anderson has for a lot of the previous decade.
Mock draft projection: No. 12 to Bulls | Prime 100: No. 11
Excessive finish: Alperen Sengun
Low finish: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Queen brings so much to the desk offensively, with the face-up abilities and passing means to play all around the ground and facilitate good offense. The success of gamers comparable to Sengun, who fell into the teenagers on draft night time in 2021 and was seen as an unorthodox prospect, helps lay the groundwork for Queen’s potential. He must turn into a extra aggressive rebounder and engaged defender — two issues that may be aided by enhancing his body and conditioning. He additionally must develop a extra dependable 3-point shot.
There’s a spot for expert, offensive-minded bigs in right now’s NBA, however there’s additionally a stage of threat inbuilt when counting on gamers with subpar bodily and defensive abilities, one thing thought of in how groups undertaking Queen’s worth transferring ahead. If he would not maximize his means and develop right into a cornerstone for a group, at worst, his expertise and basketball IQ will nonetheless assist him discover a function.
Mamukelashvili, an offensive-minded huge who has settled right into a deep bench function within the NBA, is an excessive case — Queen is way extra gifted — however that comp is supposed to underscore the draw back if Queen is unable to remain on the ground defensively. The most definitely consequence is within the center.
13. Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)
Mock draft projection: No. 13 to Hawks | Prime 100: No. 15
Excessive finish: Clint Capela
Low finish: Jaxson Hayes
Beringer’s projected NBA function is easy and confirmed: He’s going to catch lobs, rim-run, shield the paint and doubtlessly swap a bit bit defensively. Contemplating he would not flip 19 till November and has been enjoying basketball for under three years, NBA groups see enticing upside because of his sturdy bodily instruments and above-average agility for a younger middle. He is nonetheless very early in his improvement, which builds in some threat but additionally creates an extended runway for Beringer to be introduced alongside by his subsequent group as a possible long-term starter on the 5.
When describing this particular mould of middle, Capela is type of the traditional level of reference. Though Beringer is not more likely to house the ground or threaten together with his jumper, these kinds of bigs can nonetheless succeed with capturing and playmaking round them, able to ending performs and posing a risk across the basket with out designed touches.
Hayes, who was the No. 8 select of Texas in 2019 because of his unimaginable instruments and an analogous upside case, has by no means settled in as a starting-level participant, however he continues to carry a task within the NBA after six seasons — now with the Lakers. Beringer will possible fall someplace on this spectrum, relying on how rapidly he can decide up the NBA sport and get essentially the most out of his expertise.
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Joan Beringer’s NBA draft profile
Take a look at among the highlights which have made Joan Beringer a prime NBA draft prospect.
Mock draft projection: No. 14 to Spurs | Prime 100: No. 12
Excessive finish: Trey Murphy III
Low finish: Royce O’Neale
Bryant’s interesting mixture of perimeter dimension, defensive versatility, passing IQ and a clear capturing stroke match right into a precious NBA archetype. He ought to supply lineup protection at a number of positions on each ends of the ground, with room to develop offensively. It is laborious to count on an enormous leap from Bryant when it comes to creating his shot; main good points in that division might put him on a trajectory just like that of Murphy, one other late-blooming 3-and-D sort who took time to blossom as a scorer.
Admittedly, this comparability would have been higher earlier than Murphy’s unheralded scoring leap final season in New Orleans. It is laborious to count on that stage of output from Bryant, however he has time. If he can develop right into a higher-volume risk from distance, he might add worth even when he by no means cracks the 20-point threshold like Murphy simply did.
And if Bryant have been to stagnate as merely a helpful bench participant, he might nonetheless profile as a much bigger model of O’Neale, who has crammed in gaps and shot it effectively at each ahead spots for a lot of his profession.
Bonus comp!
Noa Essengue wasn’t projected within the lottery in our most up-to-date mock, however he has moved into the highest 10 on our Prime 100 rankings and thus deserves a point out right here.
15. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Mock draft projection: No. 15 to Thunder | Prime 100: No. 9
Excessive finish: Pascal Siakam
Low finish: Jarred Vanderbilt
Essengue has more and more made a case for himself over the previous few months in Germany, displaying tangible strides in consistency and motor and enjoying an energetic model that has been additive to profitable. Nonetheless simply 18 years previous, Essengue has a mix of dimension, mobility, explosiveness and projectable body that provides him a big selection of pathways to in the end succeed within the NBA. Forwards in his mould who defend a number of positions, add worth on the glass and might step out onto the perimeter comfortably are laborious to search out.
If Essengue can construct off this season, he can turn into a superb NBA participant who depends on his motor and physicality, whereas enhancing his ability stage over time, just like Siakam. Essengue has been precious while not having centered touches, exhibits good instincts within the run of play and finds methods to provide. A giant offensive leap would nonetheless have to occur for him to maximise his potential, notably as a fringe shooter, the place he nonetheless struggles with consistency.
If an offensive breakthrough would not occur for him, Essengue ought to nonetheless be a helpful function participant, providing rebounding and defensive worth off the bench just like the best way Vanderbilt has.
