Two video games into the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder are all squared up at a win apiece, and the script hasn’t deviated a lot from expectations moving into.
As an illustration, we knew that if the Pacers had been going to steal one on the Thunder’s dwelling court docket, Indiana in all probability would want a few of the identical magic that has carried it all through this playoff run. And certainly, Recreation 1 gave the Thunder a style of the identical drugs Indiana fed the Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks earlier within the postseason. However then, as has normally been the case when coming off a playoff loss, Oklahoma Metropolis flexed its superior expertise in Recreation 2, pulling away early and by no means letting the Pacers again into the competition.
So sure, the general arc of the sequence may really feel acquainted. However that does not imply the numbers have been mundane. From Pacers turnovers to Thunder free throws, the opening video games produced statistical outliers as in contrast with how these groups normally play. That is vital to contemplate, as a result of probably the greatest methods to know what a group is doing properly — or the place it’s falling brief — is to match every statistical class to the baseline that acquired it right here within the first place.
With that in thoughts, I grabbed the sport logs (in typical and superior metrics) for the groups and calculated their percentile grades for Video games 1 and a pair of relative to all of the matchups performed in each the common season and the postseason.
The classes that, on common, have deviated most in the course of the Finals from full-season norms are the areas the place the groups are enjoying most not like themselves, for good and for dangerous.
By that measure, listed below are the 5 greatest outliers of the sequence up to now, by way of how every group is performing relative to … properly, itself.
Bounce to a stat outlier:
2-pointers | Turnovers/steals
Free throws | Scoring | Assists
Indiana 2-pointers
Throughout your complete season up to now, the Pacers have averaged 30.0 made 2-pointers per sport on 56.6% capturing from contained in the arc; in addition they ranked among the many NBA’s prime 5 in each classes in the course of the common season. And individually, Pascal Siakam ranked 18th within the league with 6.2 made 2s per sport, main an Indiana assault that was much less reliant on 3-pointers than the everyday group in the course of the 2024-25 marketing campaign.
Throughout these Finals, nevertheless, the Pacers have was a totally completely different group, averaging simply 22.0 made 2-pointers per sport — with Siakam’s determine dropping to 4.0 per sport — on 51.8% capturing, each of that are among the many group’s lowest manufacturing on 2s of the season.
On the identical time, Indiana is averaging 39.5 3-point tries per sport, taking greater than 48% of its photographs from past the arc (in contrast with season averages of 35.5 and 40%). The Pacers did spend loads of time trailing in each video games, which explains a few of the shift, however they’ve additionally been knocked off their standard capturing combine on this sequence.
Indiana turnovers/opponent steals
On a associated be aware, Indiana additionally hasn’t made as many photographs from the sector as a result of it has turned the ball over a lot. Practically 18% of the Pacers’ possessions have led to a giveaway, in response to Basketball-Reference, which is far larger than their 11.9% fee from the season as a complete. And their 25 turnovers in Recreation 1 had been essentially the most by a group that gained a Finals sport since 1977.
Oklahoma Metropolis’s steals, particularly, have been among the many greatest outliers in stats up to now. Its 14 takeaways in Recreation 1 had been tied for the second most Indiana allowed in a sport all season (and simply the best of the playoffs). And OKC’s 12.0 steals per sport in Video games 1 and a pair of dwarfed the Pacers’ standard common of seven.3 SPG allowed.
The Thunder are arguably the league’s finest turnover-forcing defensive machine, however the Pacers had been probably the greatest at resisting turnovers on offense.
One thing needed to give, and that one thing is favoring Oklahoma Metropolis proper now.
Oklahoma Metropolis free throws
Whereas sure members of the Thunder have a fame for attending to the road unusually typically, Oklahoma Metropolis’s offense was not among the many league’s most foul-reliant in the course of the common season, rating twenty fourth in made free throws per area purpose try and averaging solely 16.7 free throws per sport (nineteenth most).
Within the Finals, nevertheless, Oklahoma Metropolis resides on the line, averaging 25.0 free throws per sport with a ratio of FTs per FGA that’s 51% larger than in the course of the season general.
The Thunder’s 29 makes from the foul line in Recreation 2 had been the third most they made in a single sport all season lengthy and had been tied for the fourth most Indiana allowed in a sport, as properly. The Pacers are fouling greater than their standard common, however the Thunder even have helped themselves by making 87.7% of their free throws within the sequence, with these Finals that includes two of their 5 most correct outings on the line in your complete playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alone has accounted for 36% of the Thunder’s made free throws as a group, by some means bettering on his league-leading fee of made free throws per sport from the common season.
Indiana scoring
Regardless of improved stability this season, the Pacers are nonetheless an offensively reliant group, rating No. 9 in offensive effectivity in the course of the common season — versus No. 13 on protection — and No. 2 on offense in the course of the playoffs. Throughout your complete season, Indiana is averaging 117.2 factors per sport, however within the Finals thus far, that quantity has dipped to 109.0. Within the playoffs, it has solely been held to 111 factors or fewer in every of the opening two video games of a sequence.
This cannot be defined by a slower tempo, both; the 99.8 possessions per Finals sport is barely larger than the Pacers’ seasonlong common of 99.6. However it may be defined by just a few of the elements beforehand talked about: buying and selling extra 2s for 3s and (particularly) turning the ball over a lot.
Both approach, the web result’s fewer factors, particularly for the Pacers. After averaging a mixed 39.9 factors per sport in the course of the playoffs previous to the Finals, Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton have simply 32.5 PPG collectively within the Finals.
Each groups’ assists
One early development that unifies each offenses is that their help numbers are down as in contrast with their standard averages.
Utilizing their typical numbers from the season as a complete, Indiana and Oklahoma Metropolis’s mixed assists would determine so as to add as much as a complete of 55.5 per sport, with 29.0 coming from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder. However by means of the primary two Finals video games, they’re right down to a mixed common of 44.5 APG, with Indiana falling to 25.5 and Oklahoma Metropolis dropping to 19.0.
These are a pair of fairly vital declines, although they’re occurring for various causes.
For Indiana, its fee of assists per made basket really has gone up within the Finals (from 66.9% to 67.3%), however it’s simply making far fewer buckets than standard (38.0 FG/sport versus a typical common of 43.3).
Oklahoma Metropolis, nevertheless, is genuinely spreading the ball round lower than standard, with an help fee of 47.9% in Video games 1 and a pair of (together with 33.3% in Recreation 1, its lowest share of your complete season) as in contrast with a seasonlong common of 59.7%. Gilgeous-Alexander was up from three assists in Recreation 1 to eight in Recreation 2, however the Pacers in all probability will look to maintain denying the Thunder’s ball motion from right here.
