The video games are performed for the highest draft prospects; there is no such thing as a hockey left to be performed. A couple of gamers within the high 10 performed till the final attainable second, making a long-lasting impression on scouts and executives on the Memorial Cup. With the mix going down this week in Buffalo, New York, gamers will endure bodily testing and a rigorous interview course of with groups. The mix permits groups to ask out-of-the-box questions, get a really feel for the personalities of the gamers and, in some circumstances, perceive the importance of accidents.
There’s room for motion on the draft board as a result of mix testing does affect mannequin outputs. Moreover, this checklist weighs scouting as 40% of the analysis. The ultimate rating, which will likely be printed June 23, will weigh scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and business intel to various levels, which can see some gamers transfer up or down.
There are 5 components of this set of rankings:
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The rank, which accounts for attributed worth primarily based on projection, the boldness of the projection and scouting.
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The NHL projection weighs the projection method at 70% and scouting at 30%, and represents the more than likely final result for that participant. The ultimate version of the rankings will embrace the participant’s NHL ceiling.
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The NHL ground makes use of the identical method and represents the worst final result, above 10% likelihood of occurring. If a participant has a 4% probability of by no means enjoying NHL video games and an 11% probability of changing into a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, then these projections will likely be used for NHL ground. For some gamers within the draft, the ground is exterior of the NHL, maybe the AHL or KHL.
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Projection confidence relies solely on the projection method and types two components: confidence and volatility. The arrogance has 4 tiers: Excessive, truthful, medium and low. This represents that confidence the mannequin has that the participant will attain the NHL projection for 200 or extra NHL video games. The extent of confidence impacts the worth of the participant and, due to this fact, their rank. Excessive confidence is above 80%, truthful is 60% to 79%, medium is 35% to 59% and low is beneath 35%. The volatility has 4 classes: Low, slight, medium and excessive. Volatility pertains to the vary of outcomes a participant has of their profession. A participant with a low volatility means there’s a smaller vary of outcomes for the NHL profession, whether or not that may be a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, or third-line middle to bottom-six ahead. A participant with excessive volatility has a variety of outcomes, with comparatively even distributions over the NHL projection. It may very well be associated to various components: the league they play in, their scoring in the event that they modified leagues, accidents or a major uptick/downturn in play. Many of those gamers are thought-about “uncooked” of their growth curve.
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Strengths are every participant’s standout skills.
“Growth or bust” is an all-encompassing phrase with confidence and volatility. It means the participant both hits their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL video games. The distinction between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is straightforward: It means accidents performed a task within the projection, and the pattern dimension makes it tough to confidently challenge the participant’s more than likely final result; or that the league during which the participant performs doesn’t have a profitable historical past of manufacturing NHL gamers.
One different consideration is the “Russian issue,” the place expert Russians usually tend to return to Russia in the event that they fail to hit their NHL projection.
Right here is how the highest 64 prospects line up in line with my mannequin:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL ground: High-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck transferring, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Elite No. 1 middle
NHL ground: Second-line winger
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston School (NCAA)
NHL projection: First-line middle
NHL ground: Second-line middle
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, velocity, hockey sense, puck dealing with
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line energy ahead
NHL ground: Center-six winger
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, dimension
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL projection: High-six, two-way middle
NHL ground: Third-line checking middle
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, fast fingers, playmaking, environment friendly puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: Second-line middle
NHL ground: Third-line scoring winger
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite launch, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
NHL projection: First-line scoring middle
NHL ground: Harm-shortened profession
Projection confidence: Low confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Pace, puck dealing with, fast launch, dimension
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: High-six scoring ahead
NHL ground: Center-six scoring ahead
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, arduous talent
9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
NHL projection: High-six playmaking middle
NHL ground: Center-six scoring winger
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-Metropolis (WHL)
NHL projection: High-four defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition protection, mobility, puck transferring
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring ahead
NHL ground: Backside-six energy ahead
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, arduous talent, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: High-four shutdown defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair transition defenseman
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Measurement, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line versatile ahead
NHL ground: Third-line checker
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring ahead
NHL ground: Center-six ahead
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Highly effective stride, playmaking, puck dealing with
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hole management, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
NHL projection: Center-six scoring winger
NHL ground: Backside-six ahead
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Pace, ending potential, fingers, dimension
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair bodily defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, energy
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way middle
NHL ground: Backside-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, velocity, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL ground: AHL participant
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Pace, puck dealing with, offensive instincts, ending potential
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way middle
NHL ground: Backside-six ahead
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, fast fingers, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: High-four transition defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair defensive defenseman
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
NHL projection: High-six ahead
NHL ground: Backside-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Pace, agility, offensive play driving, elite launch
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way winger
NHL ground: Backside-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL ground: Backside-six winger
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Excessive-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 beginning goaltender
NHL ground: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp actions, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair bodily defenseman
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition protection, in-zone defensive play, dimension, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair offensive specialist
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line energy ahead
NHL ground: Fourth-line ahead
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, taking pictures, arduous talent, straight-line velocity
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line defensive middle
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Power, dimension, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Invoice Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way ahead
NHL ground: AHL participant
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Excessive-end motor, uncooked playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line ahead
NHL ground: NHL depth participant
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck safety, skating, offensive instincts, puck talent
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
NHL projection: Center-six playmaker
NHL ground: Backside-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck dealing with, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
NHL projection: Center-six scoring ahead
NHL ground: Backside-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, taking pictures, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line middle
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line energy ahead
NHL ground: Backside-six checking ahead
Projection confidence: Excessive confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, energy, competitiveness, puck talent
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Center-six scoring ahead
NHL ground: Third-line scoring depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, ending potential, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Platoon beginning goaltender
NHL ground: Excessive-end NHL backup
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, managed actions, endurance in save choice
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defender
NHL ground: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Puck transferring, hole management, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line, two-way middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line defensive middle
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, ending potential
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Backside-six checking middle
NHL ground: AHL top-six middle
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: High-six energy ahead
NHL ground: Fourth-line bodily winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Measurement, motor, two-way play, puck talent
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way winger
NHL ground: Backside-six speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Pace, puck dealing with, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: Center-six energy ahead
NHL ground: AHL participant
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Fast launch, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
NHL projection: Center-six energy ahead
NHL ground: KHL participant
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Measurement, energy, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL ground: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition protection, physicality, dimension
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL ground: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, hole management, puck transferring
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: Center-six, two-way middle
NHL ground: Backside-six checking speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Pace, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
NHL projection: Center-six scoring winger
NHL ground: KHL participant
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Puck dealing with, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL ground: KHL participant
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
NHL projection: Center-six bodily ahead
NHL ground: Fourth-line bodily ahead
Projection confidence: Low confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Power, physicality, dimension, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL ground: AHL top-six ahead
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Purple Deer (WHL)
NHL projection: Backside-six checking middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line bodily middle
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Power, dimension, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line bodily presence
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, energy, dimension, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair bodily defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Present (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, dimension, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
NHL projection: Backside-six defensive middle
NHL ground: Fourth-line middle
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, dimension, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
NHL projection: Backside-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL ground: No. 7 bodily defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, dimension, sturdy stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
NHL projection: Backside-six checking middle
NHL ground: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, arduous talent
59. Haoxi “Simon” Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL ground: AHL participant
Projection confidence: Low confidence, excessive volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, dimension, transition protection
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way ahead
NHL ground: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, arduous talent, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
NHL projection: Backside-six checking winger
NHL ground: Fourth-line bodily winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL ground: Backside-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL ground: Dependable NHL backup
Projection confidence: Honest confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
NHL projection: Center-six two-way scoring depth
NHL ground: AHL top-six scoring ahead
Projection confidence: Growth or bust
Strengths: Pace, puck dealing with, motor
