James Madison has received 28 video games in three seasons, whereas South Alabama has received 24. Louisiana has 4 10-win seasons up to now six years, Troy has 5 up to now 9, and Appalachian State has 5 up to now 10. Hell, even with a latest stumble, Coastal Carolina has two up to now 5.
Texas State is coming off its two finest FBS seasons. Georgia Southern is coming off its finest season in 4 years, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe their finest in 5 and Marshall its finest in 9. Even Georgia State has 5 profitable seasons up to now eight years.
Practically everybody within the Solar Belt has reached strong to nice heights of late. Contemplating the immutable reality that somebody has to lose each soccer sport, that is an awfully spectacular signal of parity and basic convention well being.
For the time being, although, there is a little bit of a management void: Troy misplaced its head coach after profitable the 2022 and 2023 Solar Belt titles and fell off final fall, and damned if Marshall would not look primed to do precisely the identical after final season’s title run. Does that imply it is James Madison’s flip? The Dukes dropped the baton in 2024, falling out of rivalry due to a pair of maddening two-point losses. In the event that they stumble once more, will that depart the door open for Louisiana? Texas State? South Alabama? One other workforce?
Somebody has to return out on high. Let’s preview the Solar Belt!
Each week by the summer season, Invoice Connelly will preview one other FBS convention, in the end together with all 136 FBS groups. The previews will embody 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.
Earlier previews: MAC | Convention USA | Mountain West
2024 recap
Final season, one of the best groups on paper weren’t one of the best in shut video games, and that made the Solar Belt race an awfully shocking one. James Madison and Texas State each completed within the SP+ high 50, however they every went 1-2 in one-score Solar Belt finishes, and late defensive stumbles left them on the skin of the convention race. South Alabama hinted at main upside however could not shut video games out both.
Louisiana was subsequent up on the SP+ hierarchy and used a six-game profitable streak to earn a spot within the Solar Belt championship sport, however a pair of late-season QB accidents rendered its offense incompetent within the title sport. And whereas everybody else was stumbling late, Marshall peaked: The Thundering Herd ranked 82nd in SP+ with only a 5-3 file heading into Week 11 however received their final 5 video games by a mean of 35-19 and grabbed the title, all whereas an evidently contentious faculty/coach relationship was pushing Charles Huff out the door. (He landed at Southern Miss.)
It was an odd season, in different phrases. And if I’ve any say within the matter, 2025 will likely be simply as odd.
Continuity desk
The continuity desk appears at every workforce’s returning manufacturing ranges (offense, protection and general), the variety of 2024 FBS begins from each returning and incoming gamers, and the approximate variety of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? As a result of colleges typically make it very tough to establish who redshirted and who did not.) Continuity is an more and more tough artwork in roster administration, however some groups pull it off higher than others.
We’re shortly rising accustomed to a brand new head coach bringing a few of his previous gamers with him. However we have an excessive instance of that occurring at Southern Miss in 2025: When USM employed Huff the day after Marshall’s Solar Belt championship win, so many Marshall gamers entered the switch portal that the varsity needed to choose out of its Independence Bowl berth.
When the mud settled, 50 Marshall gamers had entered the portal within the winter and spring home windows, and 21 of them had landed at Southern Miss. About one-fourth of the Golden Eagles’ roster performed in Huntington final yr. And regardless of new Herd head coach Tony Gibson bringing in 55 transfers of his personal, Marshall heads towards the 2025 season with the bottom returning manufacturing averages within the nation. The Herd formally return three starters from final yr’s champ, whereas Southern Miss, which went 1-11 final season, returns 5. Thoughts-blowing stuff.
Different attention-grabbing continuity notes: Regardless of dropping star operating again Ahmad Hardy to Missouri, ULM’s manufacturing numbers are good after a refreshing 5-7 marketing campaign in Bryant Vincent’s first season on the helm; Georgia Southern hit the 60% mark as nicely; and on the different finish, App State is beginning over: After struggling their first dropping season on the FBS stage, the Mountaineers may have a brand new head coach (Dowell Loggains) and roughly 17 new starters.
2025 projections
SP+ mainly declares JMU the favourite, then shrugs. The Dukes had been irritating however regularly superior in 2024, and so they return thrilling dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III — assuming full well being after a late-season harm, anyway — plus a loaded operating again room and, regardless of dropping star defensive finish Eric O’Neill to Rutgers, perhaps the convention’s most confirmed set of defensive personnel. They deserve the highest spot, and in the event that they stumble once more, I’ve completely no concept who must be subsequent on the listing.
In the meantime, the projections for Marshall and Southern Miss function a reminder that, regardless of making plenty of changes to how I’m going about creating SP+ projections, it is actually exhausting to get a statistical learn on what both the Herd or Golden Eagles is perhaps able to in 2025. I might anticipate Southern Miss to be a main overachievement candidate, whereas Marshall actually may battle to even rank 87th.
Certainly, after JMU up high, SP+ provides 9 groups between a 5% and 11% probability of profitable the convention title. As with final yr, whoever wins its shut video games and peaks in November may have a great opportunity.
5 finest video games of 2025
This is the place I sometimes share the 5 convention video games that characteristic (a) the very best mixed SP+ rankings for each groups and (b) a projected scoring margin underneath 10 factors. However since all the highest video games (and the highest nonconference sport) characteristic James Madison — the Dukes have fairly the street slate forward — I tweaked the strategy a bit. Listed below are 5 huge video games, if not the 5 finest as outlined above.
James Madison at Liberty (Sept. 20). For all we all know, this one might need Faculty Soccer Playoff implications. JMU and Liberty have been two of the extra steadily sturdy Group of 5 packages during the last two or three years, and each stumbled at inopportune instances in 2024.
JMU’s schedule is a road-heavy delight, from high to backside. The Dukes go to Louisville and Liberty in September, then go to Texas State, Marshall and Coastal Carolina over the again half of the season. Throw in dwelling video games towards Georgia Southern and Louisiana and a late November go to from Washington State, and you have one distinctive slate.
Georgia Southern at James Madison (Sept. 27). SP+ is optimistic about Georgia Southern’s possibilities of changing into a contender in 2025, and this sport will likely be a reasonably strong prove-it alternative in that regard.
South Alabama at Troy (Oct. 4). South Alabama might need misplaced extra expertise than anybody else in FBS within the spring portal window, however the Jaguars nonetheless return fairly a bit, and Troy’s continuity ranges are strong after a setback season. Relying on how nicely Texas State handles roster turnover, the winner of this one might grow to be Louisiana’s greatest competitor within the West Division. (That is proper: The Solar Belt nonetheless has divisions! And makes precise geographic sense!)
Louisiana at James Madison (Oct. 11) and Louisiana at South Alabama (Nov. 1). Like JMU, Michael Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns will have to be street warriors to meet their potential.
Convention title (and, due to this fact, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Bob Chesney (second yr, 9-4 general)
2025 projection: forty ninth in SP+, 8.5 common wins (6.0 within the Solar Belt)
Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston … we have seen loads of glorious FCS-to-FBS transitions by the years. However JMU may become the gold normal on this regard. The Dukes started FBS life with 5 straight wins and an AP ballot look, and it was a real shock that they did not play for the Solar Belt title of their first season eligible final yr. The subsequent time they end exterior of the SP+ high 50 would be the first, and so they aren’t projected to take action in 2025.
It might be even brighter, doubtlessly, if we knew Alonza Barnett III could be 100%. The junior QB mixed 2,598 passing yards (and a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) with 669 non-sack speeding yards final yr earlier than injuring his leg towards Marshall. He was cleared just for non-contact drills this spring, and his standing stays unclear. Heading into his second season after succeeding Curt Cignetti, Chesney took no probabilities, bringing in two QB transfers: Richmond’s Camden Coleman and Matthew Sluka;. Sluka is thought primarily for his NIL-related opt-out at UNLV final season, however earlier than that he was a star for Chesney at Holy Cross, leaving because the Crusaders’ No. 2 profession rusher and No. 5 profession passer and a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist (high participant in FCS). Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy love a pleasant, sturdy dual-threat QB, and each Sluka and Coleman (to a level) qualify if Barnett is not prepared.
The RB corps is perhaps probably the greatest within the FBS. George Pettaway and backups Wayne Knight and Jobi Malary mixed to common 22 carries per sport and 6.0 yards per carry, and Ayo Adeyi, injured for many of 2024, was a 1,000-yard rusher at North Texas in 2023. The road in entrance of them does have to switch three starters, however proper sort out Pat McMurtrie is the one returning participant on the first-team All-Solar Belt listing, three different returning veterans have beginning expertise, and Chesney introduced in former North Carolina middle Zach Greenberg and all-Patriot League choice Cam McNair (Holy Cross), amongst 4 transfers. He additionally dipped closely into the portal to search out cross catchers: Positive-handed slot man Yamir Knight will likely be joined by each former energy convention reserves in Braeden Wisloski (Maryland) and 6-foot-4 Isaiah Alston (Iowa State) and FCS starters Landon Ellis (Richmond), Nick DeGennaro (Richmond) and Jaylan Sanchez (Villanova).
Chesney additionally was fairly aggressive on protection, including 13 transfers to a lineup that boasts some confirmed items — 315-pound sort out Immanuel Bush, linebacker Trent Hendrick, security Jacob Thomas, nickel DJ Barksdale — however returns solely seven of the 19 gamers who noticed no less than 200 snaps in 2024. Once more, he dipped closely into the FCS ranks, bringing in stars reminiscent of defensive finish Xavier Holmes (12.5 TFLs at Maine), sort out Andrew Taddeo (7.5 TFLs at Colgate), linebacker JT Kouame-Yao (11.5 TFLs at Shepherd), security Curtis Harris-Lopez (9.5 TFLs and 9 passes defended at Holy Cross) and nook TJ McGill (six passes defended as a freshman at William & Mary), plus former blue-chip defensive finish Aiden Gobaira (Notre Dame).
There are sufficient new items right here that success is not assured, however the mixture of confirmed expertise and confirmed smaller-school playmakers — particularly at a college that has greater than confirmed that FCS stars can grow to be FBS stalwarts — makes JMU the preseason convention favourite. It is as much as the Dukes to shut the deal this time.
Head coach: Main Applewhite (second yr, 7-6 general)
2025 projection: 76th in SP+, 7.3 common wins (5.2 within the Solar Belt)
As a redshirt freshman, Gio Lopez ranked seventh amongst G5 quarterbacks in Complete QBR. He is a North Carolina Tar Heel now. As a real freshman, Fluff Bothwell was a bolt of lightning, gaining 924 yards in simply 124 mixed rushes and receptions and scoring 13 instances. He is now a Mississippi State Bulldog. Proper sort out Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) … edge rusher Aakil Washington (SMU) … cornerbacks Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest) and Amarion Fortenberry (Kansas State) … injured cornerback Ricky Fletcher (Ole Miss) … nickel again Jordan Scruggs (West Virginia) … even kicker Laith Marjan (Kansas). An entire bunch of South Alabama gamers flashed main potential, then received plucked away within the switch portal. Offensive coordinator Rob Izell (Wake Forest) mainly did too.
Gamers shifting up and down the ladder with lightning velocity is a symptom of the portal period, and few colleges had extra gamers transfer up than Main Applewhite’s USA. In the event you look solely at who they do not have, in reality, it is exhausting to examine the Jags enjoying a serious function within the Solar Belt race in 2025.
In the event you take a look at who they do have, nevertheless, they may nonetheless have an opportunity:
• Quarterbacks Bishop Davenport and Zach Pyron (Georgia Tech) each have beginning expertise and have flashed dual-threat capabilities.
• Veteran operating again Kentrel Bullock had 984 speeding and receiving yards (5.9 per contact) regardless of sharing touches with Bothwell.
• Left sort out Jordan Davis is an all-conference contender and considered one of three returning starters up entrance. Applewhite managed to carry on to most of final yr’s two-deep, in reality, and added six O-line transfers.
• Defensive sort out Ed Smith IV made 7.0 tackles at or behind the road final yr and has sturdy cross speeding chops for his dimension, and 334-pound Stephen Johnson (McNeese State) is considered one of 4 line of defense transfers.
• Linebacker Blayne Myrick is among the many most confirmed run stoppers within the league.
Few of Applewhite’s defensive transfers have a disruptive monitor file like JMU’s — defensive finish IBK Mafe (St. Thomas) and nook Jayvon Henderson (East Tennessee State) are probably the most promising in that regard — however most of them are higher-upside children who may grow to be strong items. (In fact, that additionally may imply they get plucked away.) If both Davenport or Pyron are able to shine and an unproven receiving corps gives some semblance of worth, it positive looks as if there’s sufficient expertise right here to no less than proceed a three-year run of bowl eligibility. Solar Belt rivalry would require fairly a number of newcomers and kids to interrupt by. Contemplating what number of did final yr, there’s an opportunity.
Head coach: Clay Helton (fourth yr, 20-19 general)
2025 projection: 78th in SP+, 7.3 common wins (5.0 within the Solar Belt)
Clay Helton served as an early mannequin of how portal life can work when he arrived at Georgia Southern in 2022, instantly reset the Eagles’ total id with a batch of key transfers and nonetheless managed to upset Nebraska and double their win complete. I do not need to overstate his success — he is mainly .500 by three years — however in an more and more risky G5 atmosphere, he is produced secure outcomes. And regardless of offensive inconsistency, final yr was his finest but: Georgia Southern inched as much as 76th in SP+ and received eight video games.
In 2025, Helton and the Eagles boast a promising mixture of confirmed items and intriguing new ones. Quarterback JC French threw too many interceptions final yr (11) and should enhance in that regard, however in slot receivers Dalen Cobb and Josh Dallas (mixed: 1,213 yards and 10 TDs), tight finish River Helms (Western Kentucky) and returning third-down again OJ Arnold, the Eagles have the elements of an environment friendly assault. That is doubly true if you see that they’ve probably the most confirmed inside line within the league: Each guards, Pichon Wimbley and Caleb Prepare dinner, are all-conference contenders. A bit big-play increase could be nice — Dallas did common 13.4 yards per catch, and incoming switch Dylan Gary (West Georgia) averaged 16.9 in FCS — however there are confirmed commodities right here for coordinator Ryan Aplin.
The protection was too bend-don’t-break for my style, but it surely was additionally probably the most competent protection but for Helton and coordinator Brandon Bailey: The Eagles’ No. 91 defensive SP+ rating was their finest since 2020. Helton was evidently assured sufficient in what he is returning that he principally aimed younger within the portal, bringing in 5 redshirt freshmen or sophomores (all former high-three or four-star recruits) amongst eight transfers. Senior linebacker Brendan Harrington (Appalachian State) ought to present stability, however this yr’s success will likely be pushed primarily by returnees like 340-pounder Latrell Bullard up entrance and nickel Ayden Jackson and corners Tracy Hill Jr. and Probability Gamble within the again.
The upside right here is not monumental, however big-play prevention and an environment friendly offense ought to drive one other bowl season at worst. And if JMU certainly falters once more, the Eagles’ excessive ground and strong veterans may make them the most probably workforce to take benefit within the East division. We’ll know what we have to know fairly early on: Their tough nonconference schedule (at Fresno State, at USC, Jacksonville State) will both beat them down or correctly put together them for a Solar Belt slate that begins with a visit to JMU.
Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fourth yr, 23-18 general)
2025 projection: 74th in SP+, 7.5 common wins (4.9 within the Solar Belt)
After going 34-5 with three consecutive SP+ top-50 finishes from 2019 to 2021, Louisiana took a quick step backward in transitioning from Florida-bound Billy Napier to Michael Desormeaux. However after back-to-back six-win seasons, Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns had been able to roll once more final fall. Not less than, they had been till QB accidents wrecked their plans. They survived one harm (to Ben Wooldridge) whereas beginning 10-2 and rising as excessive as thirty fourth in SP+, however a second one (to Chandler Fields) spelled doom; of their final two video games, the Ragin’ Cajuns had been outscored by a mixed 65-6 towards Marshall and TCU.
It was an indication of confidence from Desormeaux that he did not load up on transfers regardless of dropping about eight offensive and 7 defensive starters. In that regard, a whole lot of Louisiana’s destiny will likely be decided by gamers who had been additionally in a Louisiana uniform final season. Working backs Invoice Davis and Zylan Perry (mixed: 1,491 speeding yards and 13 TDs), proper guard Jax Harrington (6-foot-4, 327 kilos), disruptive defensive lineman Jordan Lawson (5.5 sacks at 293 kilos) and edge rusher Cameron Whitfield (11.5 TFLs) are all all-Solar Belt contenders. However the Cajuns are principally beginning over in each the receiving corps (which misplaced six of final yr’s high seven) and the secondary (which misplaced final yr’s high 4). Sophomore security Kody Jackson looks as if a keeper, however transfers may inform the story in each the passing sport and cross protection.
Among the many seven transfers Desormeaux introduced in are three former blue-chippers in quarterback Walker Howard (Ole Miss), receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (LSU) and cornerback Curley Reed III (Washington). Howard was a top-50 prospect within the 2022 class, Sampson was top-75 in 2023, and each appeared good within the spring. In the event that they’re difference-makers, and each Reed and Richmond switch Trae Tomlinson are strong at nook, Louisiana instantly turns into the West division favourite once more. But when they are not, I am undecided they’ve what they want.
Then once more, perhaps that is simply me overreacting to final yr’s late offensive collapse. Like Napier, Desormeaux has confirmed himself within the recruiting division, and the Cajuns are all however assured to have among the highest ranges of athleticism and physicality within the convention. The offense has ranked fiftieth or higher in offensive SP+ 5 instances in six years, and whereas the protection has slipped not too long ago, it nonetheless has three top-50 finishes in 5 seasons. The bar right here is excessive, and the mixture of depth and blue-chip additions may give them an opportunity to clear it.
A few breaks away from a run
Head coach: Gerad Parker (second yr, 4-8 general)
2025 projection: 86th in SP+, 6.6 common wins (4.8 within the Solar Belt)
With a mixture of deep and skilled line play and big-play potential, Troy received back-to-back Solar Belt titles in 2022 and 2023; the Trojans ranked within the defensive SP+ high 30 in each seasons and rose to twenty sixth general in 2023. In two seasons, Jon Sumrall proved that, with the best set of palms in cost, this chip-on-shoulder program can completely shine.
Gerad Parker might nonetheless show himself, however he had little or no probability in 2024. Just about each confirmed playmaker was gone, as had been most of each strains. The offense remained environment friendly thanks primarily to quarterback Matthew Caldwell, receiver Devonte Ross and operating again Damien Taylor, however the Trojans stopped making huge performs and began permitting a ton of them, and nearly nothing labored throughout a 1-7 begin.
The offense clicked late as Troy received three of its final 4, however Caldwell (Texas), Ross (Penn State) and Taylor (Ole Miss) all departed for big-time colleges. The Trojans have strong expertise and glorious dimension within the trenches: Left guard Eli Russ (6-foot-4, 313 kilos) will anchor the offensive line, sort out Julian Peterson (eight TFLs at 310 kilos) leads the defensive entrance, and Parker added 5 power-conference transfers on the 2 strains. They’ll look the half bodily, and veteran quarterback Goose Crowder, who started 2024 because the starter, must be respectable. However the ability corps is drastically unproven. Three receiver transfers — Rara Thomas (Georgia), Tray Taylor (Coastal Carolina) and Kristian Tate (Delta State) — might want to click on, and former blue-chipper (and 2024 switch) Mojo Dortch might want to present greater than the 2 catches and minus-2 yards he managed final season. The operating again corps, in the meantime, is nearly utterly devoid of recognized portions.
Between Peterson, linebacker Jordan Stringer and security Justin Powe, the backbone of the protection must be strong, and the run protection must be disruptive. However even with Powe and a pleasant nickel in Devin Lafayette, Troy ranked simply 112th in yards allowed per dropback and 126th in completion charge allowed final season. As with the receiving corps, transfers — corners Kaleno Levine (Missouri State) and Jaquez White (Washburn), safeties Steven Sannieniola (Vanderbilt) and David Daniel-Sisavanh (Georgia) — will play an enormous function in propping up the cross protection and telling Troy’s story in 2025.
Head coach: G.J. Kinne (third yr, 16-10 general)
2025 projection: 93rd in SP+, 6.1 common wins (4.1 within the Solar Belt)
It is bizarre that we have gotten this far and have not but introduced up the workforce that completed forty eighth in SP+ and practically beat CFP-bound Arizona State final yr, proper? That in all probability tells you ways a lot of final yr’s Texas State workforce is now not in San Marcos. G.J. Kinne each inherited and defied perennially low expectations at TXST in every of the final two years, and he’ll have an opportunity to take action once more after dropping his offensive coordinator (Mack Leftwich), beginning quarterback (Jordan McCloud), main rusher (Ismail Mahdi), high three receivers, three offensive line starters and 14 of the 18 defenders with no less than 250 snaps final season.
Kinne is a fearless switch portal aficionado. He introduced in one other 36 transfers this season, together with three quarterbacks (Pitt’s Nate Yarnell, SMU’s Keldric Luster and former Auburn blue-chipper Holden Geriner), eight ability corps guys and 19 defenders. This yr’s switch haul is a mixture of semi-proven G5 or smaller-school guys — operating again Greg Burrell (UNLV), slot receiver Tiaquelin Mims (Southern Miss), linebackers Ayden Jones (Prairie View A&M) and Cole Nilles (Bryant), corners Jaden Rios (East Texas A&M) and Malik Willis (Campbell), security Javis Mynatt (Wofford) — and younger and unproven power-conference transfers. There are some former blue-chippers like Geriner, receiver Mavin Anderson (Cal), defensive sort out Bryce Carter (Virginia) and linebacker Terrence Cooks (TCU) within the combine as nicely.
Kinne has shortly grown accustomed to asking members of a transient roster for rapid contributions, however when it got here time to switch the Texas Tech-bound Leftwich, he went with a well-recognized face: Landon Keopple is a former small-school coordinator who joined up with Kinne about 5 years in the past and understands Kinne’s fashionable unfold in addition to anybody.
A Kinne workforce goes to attain factors, however defensive enchancment was a key piece of final yr’s first-ever top-50 end. Coordinator Dexter McCoil returns star finish Kalil Alexander (11 run stops, 6.5 sacks), and nook Trez Moore and safeties Ryan Nolan and Darius Jackson had been respectable rotation items final yr, however many of the 2025 lineup will likely be new. That is a chance for enchancment or regression. My guess is that the Bobcats defy projections as soon as once more, but when the protection falls off, that will likely be tough.
Head coach: Tim Beck (third yr, 14-12 general)
2025 projection: ninety fifth in SP+, 6.0 common wins (4.1 within the Solar Belt)
The Coastal Carolina of the final couple of years — with Tim Beck changing Liberty-bound Jamey Chadwell in 2023 — has jogged my memory a whole lot of the primary couple of Louisiana groups after Billy Napier: tremendous however distinctly underwhelming. After slipping to 74th in SP+ in Chadwell’s closing season, the Chanticleers held regular at 68th in 2023 however final season slipped to an injury-plagued 99th, with each the offense and protection regressing. Lineup stability was an enormous obstacle: Solely 4 gamers began all 13 video games.
Nothing feels definitively fallacious with the Chants, however you could possibly see the expertise coming collectively at Louisiana, and the Cajuns’ offense was constantly strong even through the two-year lull. Issues seem rather less confirmed at Coastal: Neither unit has been constant, quarterback Ethan Vasko (Liberty) and operating again Braydon Bennett (Virginia Tech) transferred, and of 24 defenders who began no less than one sport (once more: severe lineup instability right here) solely six return.
However I like what Beck did within the portal this offseason, particularly on protection. He landed 5 gamers who made no less than 5 TFLs at their final faculty — ends Noah Arinze (New Mexico State) and Jordan Mack (Seton Hill), linebackers Luke Murphy (Japanese Michigan) and Dontae Lunan (Albany) and security Jacob Robinson (Emory & Henry) — and added 4 former blue-chippers as nicely: finish Darrion Henry-Younger (Kentucky), security DeAndre Boykins (North Carolina) and corners Ja’Marion Wayne (Missouri) and Robby Washington (Miami). Throw in respectable holdovers in sort out Sawyer Goram-Welch, linebacker Shane Bruce and massive security Xamarion Gordon, and it looks like there’s so much to work with right here.
I am much less blown away by the additions on offense, although every of two quarterbacks, Emmett Brown (San Jose State) and MJ Morris (Maryland), appears to have respectable potential. However amount might create high quality: Amongst three veteran wideouts (Jameson Tucker, Cameron Wright and Bryson Graves), Ball State switch Malcolm Gillie and three FCS transfers who mixed for two,151 yards final yr (Western Illinois’ Eli Aragon, West Georgia’s Karmello English and Furman’s Colton Hinton), a robust receiving corps ought to come collectively. And up entrance, some mixture of six linemen with beginning expertise, 4 transfers and a JUCO ought to create a strong two-deep. Breakthrough coming? I am unable to promise that, but it surely does really feel just like the components have added up.
Head coach: Dowell Loggains (first yr)
2025 projection: 98th in SP+, 6.2 common wins (4.0 within the Solar Belt)
Appalachian State would not do “dropping seasons.” Earlier than 2024, the Mountaineers’ final sub-.500 season got here in 2013, after they stumbled to 4-8 of their closing FCS marketing campaign and their first yr after the legendary Jerry Moore’s retirement. The time earlier than that? 1993! However issues fell aside for Shawn Clark final fall, and App State appeared like way more of an also-ran than we’re used to.
In an existential second, colleges usually look inside for the reply, asking somebody with deep ties to rally this system and save the day. App State went within the different path. Dowell Loggains spent the primary 16 years of his teaching profession within the NFL earlier than shifting to the school ranks in 2021. In 2023-24, he served as South Carolina’s offensive coordinator. Within the yr earlier than his arrival, the Gamecocks ranked twenty fifth in offensive SP+; in his two seasons there, they had been 58th and thirty fifth, respectively.
He can recruit, although. Loggains’ first App State roster misplaced greater than 40 gamers to the switch portal, however among the many greater than 30 incoming transfers are quite a few former high-three or four-star recruits: quarterbacks AJ Swann (LSU) and JJ Kohl (Iowa State), operating backs Rashod Dubinion (Arkansas) and Khalifa Keith (Tennessee), receiver Davion Dozier (Arkansas), tight finish Izayah Cummings (Louisville), linebacker Brayshawn Littlejohn (Missouri), nook Emory Floyd (South Carolina), nickel Ja’Den McBurrows (Michigan) and others. Loggains additionally dipped into the FCS nicely to land a number of transfers, together with 1,000-yard receiver Jaden Barnes (Austin Peay) and defensive finish Joseph Bakhole (East Tennessee).
Few on the roster have really confirmed themselves on the FBS stage. Offensive guards Jayden Ramsey and Griffin Scroggs and defensive ends Thomas Davis and Shawn Collins are good, and the secondary is skilled if nothing else. Swann, Kohl and freshman Noah Gillon evidently all had strong moments in spring follow — humorous how everybody’s at all times good in spring ball, huh? — and nobody’s going to doubt the athletic potential of this roster. The potential appears to present the Mountaineers a reasonably excessive ceiling, and the drastically unproven roster provides them a scary-low ground. This faculty would not know the right way to deal with dropping as a result of it hasn’t needed to; that makes this nearly probably the most attention-grabbing workforce within the convention in 2025.
Head coach: Butch Jones (fifth yr, 19-31 general)
2025 projection: a centesimal in SP+, 5.3 common wins (3.6 within the Solar Belt)
There was a time when Arkansas State brazenly talked about changing into the Boise State of the South. Hell, again in 2012, because the Purple Wolves had been ending up a second straight 10-win season, attendance was topping 31,000, practically BSU-esque ranges. The Purple Wolves averaged 9.3 wins whereas hiring three straight single-year up-and-comers (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin), then settled right into a 7.3-win common in seven seasons underneath Blake Anderson. When he stumbled, ASU selected somebody on the opposite aspect of the age-and-ambition line: former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones, who has averaged 4.8 wins. Attendance has perked up because the win complete has improved, but it surely was nonetheless 28% decrease final yr than it had been a decade earlier.
That makes capitalizing on final yr’s eight-win marketing campaign fairly essential. Followers had been handled to 5 dwelling wins, all in dramatic style; it was the sort of season that may rekindle curiosity. It was additionally nearly not possible to copy. SP+ mainly noticed a four-win workforce that by accident received eight video games, after which that workforce misplaced about 17 starters. Jones has to stare up at a a lot larger bar whereas rebuilding his roster once more.
ASU’s offense is usually perky underneath coordinator Keith Heckendorf, and that should not change with quarterback Jaylen Raynor, 1,000-yard receiver Corey Rucker and operating again Ja’Quez Cross joined by enjoyable newcomers like receiver Jaylen Bonelli (Wagner).
However the protection is totally beginning over. Only one starter returns (plus one other from 2023), and Jones needed to discover a whole lot of portal solutions. I do suppose he discovered some good ones: Finish Demarcus Hendricks (Texas A&M-Kingsville) and sort out Cody Sigler (West Alabama) had been double-digit TFL guys, and cornerback Joedrick Lewis (SE Missouri State) had an enormous season in 2023. The 2 major returning items — finish Bryan Whitehead and linebacker Javante Mackey — are disruptive too, and gamers like sort out Gavin Ransaw (Coastal) and security AG McGhee (Marshall) must be helpful. ASU hasn’t ranked within the double digits in defensive SP+ since 2018, however there’s some expertise right here. Nonetheless, if final yr’s luck turns, it may be awfully exhausting for ASU to strategy eight wins.
Head coach: Ricky Rahne (fifth yr, 20-30 general)
2025 projection: 103rd in SP+, 4.8 common wins (3.6 within the Solar Belt)
Be it Bobby Wilder (2014-19) or Ricky Rahne (2021-present) main the best way, Previous Dominion appears to have discovered its stage.
Wilder: 31-42 (.425 win proportion), 106.5 common SP+ rating
Rahne: 20-30 (.400 win proportion), 103.5 common SP+ rating
Rahne’s outcomes have been extra constant, for higher (no 1-11 seasons like Wilder) or worse (precisely seven losses in three of 4 years), however on common the product has remained the identical.
In the event you squint excellent, nevertheless, you may see hints of progress. ODU’s No. 95 SP+ rating final yr was its finest since 2016, and 6 of seven losses had been by a landing or much less (together with a season-opening 23-19 defeat to South Carolina). The Monarchs are within the high half of the convention in returning manufacturing too. The offense improved regardless of having to start out three totally different quarterbacks, and redshirt freshman Colton Joseph appeared promising there in eight begins. The offensive line is skilled and bodily, and because of the return of all-world tackling machine Jason Henderson — see chart under — after a 2024 harm, the defensive entrance six returns 4 guys able to double-digit TFLs: linebackers Henderson, Koa Naotala and Mario Thompson and defensive finish Kris Trinidad.
The Monarchs have fairly a number of confirmed entities, however progress in 2025 will likely be decided by the success of two rebuilds: these of the ability corps and secondary.
Final season, eight ODU RBs and WRs touched the ball no less than 20 instances; seven are gone. Working again Devin Roche is now the grizzly veteran of the ability corps regardless of a) being a sophomore and b) producing simply 326 yards from scrimmage in 2024. Rahne introduced in a pair of transfers (former Utah/Tulane WR Sidney Mbanasor and former Florida TE Dawson Johnson), however he is hoping he struck gold within the neglected JUCO ranks, the place he grabbed one operating again, 4 WRs and a good finish.
It is a comparable story within the secondary. Seven of final yr’s high eight are gone, leaving part-time beginning security Mario Easterly and a pair of doubtless promising former reserves in Jeremy Mack Jr. and Daevon Iles. Rahne once more introduced in a pair of four-year transfers and an enormous load of 5 JUCOs (together with onetime TCU signee Kollin Collier).
Head coach: Tony Gibson (first yr)
2025 projection: 99th in SP+, 5.7 common wins (3.4 within the Solar Belt)
The steadiness of energy would not often change a lot in faculty soccer, however it may well shift in a heartbeat within the Solar Belt. Each the 2021 (Louisiana) and 2023 champions (Troy) misplaced their head coaches and received seven fewer video games as defending champs. And now the 2024 champion is beginning over like nearly nobody ever has.
With Charles Huff’s departure and the participant exodus that adopted, Marshall is wanting on the following:
• No passer on the roster threw for a yard final season.
• No returnee rushed for a yard.
• Two returnees caught passes.
• These liable for 49 of 65 O-line begins are gone.
• Certainly one of eight defensive linemen with no less than 50 snaps returns.
• The overall linebacker snaps returning is three.
• Two of 13 DBs with no less than 30 snaps return.
That is mind-boggling turnover. In response, Marshall elected to lean closely into its West Virginia roots. Glenville State graduate Tony Gibson, former defensive coordinator at NC State and West Virginia (and, again on the flip of the century, West Virginia Tech), leads the best way. Glenville State grad Rod Smith, former protege of present and former WVU head coach Wealthy Rodriguez, is the offensive coordinator. Marshall graduate (and three-time former Marshall assistant) Shannon Morrison is the defensive coordinator. I suppose in case your roster has no roots by any means within the space, it’s best to discover coaches who do.
Gibson & Co. did their finest to search out expertise the place they may. In Zion Turner (UConn/Jacksonville State) and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Florida/Syracuse), they grabbed QBs with a mixed 2,039 profession passing yards. Working backs Jo’shon Barbie (McNeese State) and Tony Mathis Jr. (WVU/Houston) every have greater than 1,000 profession speeding yards. Amongst 10 receiver transfers, Adrian Norton (Akron) and Ben Turner (West Liberty) every had greater than 800 yards final yr. Three offensive linemen and 9 defenders noticed heavy smaller-school motion, and some — 6-foot-9 offensive lineman Tyler McDuffie (Hampton), 320-pound defensive sort out Naquan Crowder (California-PA), linebacker Jalen Marshall (Wofford), corners Boogie Trotter (Tennessee State) and Louikenzy Jules (Charleston), security Cam Smith (Jackson State) — performed at a very excessive stage.
You will discover expertise on this roster, however nearly none of it suited up in Kelly inexperienced and white final yr. That makes the Thundering Herd nearly not possible to mission.
Simply in search of a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bryant Vincent (second yr, 5-7 general)
2025 projection: 116th in SP+, 4.4 common wins (2.8 within the Solar Belt)
Within the new Home settlement, colleges will likely be allowed to share as much as $20.5 million in income with its athletes in a given yr. Louisiana-Monroe studies complete income of round $20 million in a given yr. This faculty is splendidly bull-headed in its insistence on enjoying FBS ball, which makes the rewards for doing so each uncommon and fantastic. The Warhawks’ 2012 season, through which they beat a top-10 Arkansas workforce on the best way to eight wins, is considered one of my favourite underdog campaigns of the twenty first century. They have not bowled since.
Going 5-7 final yr was a real victory, although it got here with the frustration of a 5-1 begin and an 0-6 end. Bryant Vincent helped to resurrect the UAB program and brings severe underdog bona fides to the desk; he discovered relative success with a mixture of a run-heavy offense and the varsity’s finest protection in six years.
The protection returns 11 of the 17 gamers with no less than 200 snaps, together with stars in finish Kevontay Wells, OLB Billy Pullen and nook David Godsey Jr. Vincent added eight transfers and 6 JUCOs as nicely, so depth must be strong. On offense, sophomore quarterback Aidan Armenta returns, however that solely means a lot as a result of ULM goes to run the ball as a lot because it’s allowed to.
Ahmad Hardy transferred after speeding for 1,351 yards as a freshman, however his success drew in 4 operating again transfers — together with Richmond 1,300-yard rusher Zach Palmer-Smith — and freshman D’Shaun Ford, some of the extremely touted recruits ULM has seen. Three of six common linemen return, along with one switch and three JUCOs. Final yr’s rushing-and-D system will likely be this yr’s rushing-and-D system.
Head coach: Dell McGee (second yr, 3-9 general)
2025 projection: 114th in SP+, 3.7 common wins (2.4 within the Solar Belt)
All issues thought-about, Dell McGee did one hell of a job final season. Employed after spring follow had already begun in February 2024, he navigated by huge post-spring turnover, then crafted a workforce able to upsetting Vanderbilt in September and Texas State in November. His Panthers weren’t good — between these upsets had been seven straight losses — however they had been often spicy, and issues ended up merely dangerous, not apocalyptic.
McGee continues to be trying to find stability in 12 months 2. He wanted two tries to land a defensive coordinator — he went with Travis Pearson when Deron Wilson left for Florida after two weeks — and he misplaced practically 40 extra transfers. Depth could possibly be a difficulty, however there’s upside. Quarterback Christian Veilleux and explosive receiver Ted Hurst each return, and McGee added a secure of thrilling RB transfers, led by Jordon Simmons (6.0 yards per carry at Akron) and former blue-chippers Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Djay Braswell (South Carolina). The offensive line returns just one starter however welcomes six transfers and two JUCOs.
Because of Hurst and a strong secondary, GSU created larger huge performs than its opponents. However security D-Icey Hopkins is the one common defensive again returning, and McGee signed an nearly conservative three transfers and two JUCOs. There’s expertise within the entrance six, however final yr’s finest unit is beginning over.
McGee needed to know what he was getting himself into when taking the job, and whereas he is nonetheless navigating by bumpy waters, his workforce ought to flash some upside if it may well survive a tough early stretch — amongst their first 5 video games are journeys to Ole Miss and Vandy and visits from Memphis and JMU — with morale intact.
Head coach: Charles Huff (first yr)
2025 projection: 128th in SP+, 3.4 common wins (2.1 within the Solar Belt)
What occurs if you graft one-quarter of final yr’s Solar Belt championship roster onto the worst roster within the convention? We’ll discover out! Two years after a semi-promising 7-6 marketing campaign, all the things fell aside for Will Corridor at Southern Miss final season because the Golden Eagles plummeted to 1-11 and 133rd in SP+. That Charles Huff so shortly fled Marshall for USM may communicate to the unusual relationship he had together with his former employer, however that is Southern Miss’ acquire. After signing greater than 50 transfers along with the conventional freshman/JUCO signing class, Huff has nearly utterly flipped the roster in six months. The one returning starters: receiver Davis Dalton, proper sort out Greg Nunnery and defensive sort out Brodarius Lewis. Hell, they’re nearly the one returnees from the two-deep.
Former Marshall gamers — particularly quarterback Braylon Braxton, receivers Chuck Montgomery and Carl Chester and defensive backs Josh Moten, Ahmere Foster and Ian Foster — will likely be key to early success, such because it exists. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson introduced some gamers from his latest Utah State head teaching stint, too, most notably receiver Grant Web page and guard Aloali’i Maui. SP+ is setting the bar low as a result of issues like “latest historical past” nonetheless are likely to matter most of the time. However as with Marshall, it is a complete, unprojectable roster reset.
After profitable between six and 9 video games yearly from 1994 to 2010, Southern Miss has been dramatically unstable for practically 15 years. Even when Huff steadies the ship, it is in all probability going to take him a bit. But when nothing else, the Eagles ought to take pleasure in a bit extra upside in 2025.
