Caitlin Clark was the favourite to win the WNBA MVP award coming into the 2025 season however when she was dominated out for not less than two weeks with a quad damage, Napheesa Collier took the highest spot on the oddsboard. Collier is at present the overwhelming favourite to win MVP (-300), however Clark is ready to return on Saturday in opposition to the New York Liberty.
Might she nonetheless get again within the MVP race? In that case, is there any worth in betting on her at her present odds? Let’s discover.
All odds are correct as of time stamp. For the newest odds go to ESPN BET.
Sometimes, the MVP award is given to a participant that maximizes the intersection between particular person manufacturing and staff success. If we use fantasy scoring common because the metric for the previous and staff win proportion for the latter, the final 10 gamers to win MVP have averaged not less than 40.2 FP/G and performed on groups that received 74.8% of their video games.
We’re roughly 20% of the way in which by the season, with every staff having performed about 9 or 10 of their 44 video games. There may be nonetheless loads of time for issues to alter, however at current there are 4 gamers with an affordable probability to suit the marks of an MVP.
Clark (+320) is third within the league with 41.5 FP/G, and her Fever have received 44.4% of their video games.
A’ja Wilson (+2000) is second within the league with 44.3 FP/G, and her Aces have received 50% of their video games.
Breanna Stewart (+3300) is twelfth within the league with 33.7 FP/G, simply behind teammate Sabrina Ionescu (33.8 FP/G, +10,000 to win MVP), however her Liberty are the final undefeated staff with a 100% win fee.
At current, Collier is the one participant that might surpass the common standards of an MVP in each metrics, which is why she is the prohibitive favourite. She is the best participant within the league and performs for a staff that only in the near past misplaced their first sport.
Wilson and Stewart are each multiple-time MVP winners. Wilson’s manufacturing is far greater than the everyday MVP winner, however her staff is not profitable on the similar tempo as earlier years, whereas Stewart’s staff is defeating each opponent with out her having to supply MVP-level particular person numbers. Each are getting longshot odds, and could possibly be price a flyer, however their outlooks must change to ensure that them to have a legit probability at MVP this season.
After which there’s Clark. Previous to her damage, she was delivering the manufacturing of an MVP candidate. Her staff was 2-2, however considered one of their losses was to the undefeated Liberty and the opposite was to an Atlanta Dream staff that they defeated within the rematch. The Fever introduced in two high-level free brokers this offseason in Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner to affix Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell. Now that Clark is again, it is rather believable that the Fever might improve their win proportion and bolster her MVP case.
Collier must be the runaway favourite to win MVP however there’s nonetheless 80% of the season left to go. Clark is prone to solely enhance on her manufacturing (she averaged 43.7 FP/G over the past 28 video games of her rookie season) and the Fever have one of the best probability among the many groups with MVP candidates to enhance dramatically within the brief time period.
Clark can be the preferred participant within the WNBA by a big margin, so any uptick in her manufacturing and enchancment for Fever on the court docket will end in instant adjustments to her odds within the MVP market.
It is unlikely that you will see Clark at +320 to win MVP once more if the Fever go on a profitable streak.
For those who imagine in Clark and the Indiana Fever, there is no higher time to wager on the celebrity guard to win MVP than proper now.
She is clearly in an awesome place to enhance her odds and should you do not feel comfy going with a longshot like Wilson or Stewart, Clark provides one of the best remaining betting worth on the board.
