The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this weekend for a lead within the Nationwide League East that has gone backwards and forwards between the 2 golf equipment, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game lead June 12 earlier than shedding six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drawing the Phillies again in.
The Braves have been alleged to be a part of this combine however have stumbled by means of a horrible first half, leaving this as a two-team race. Whereas Mets and Phillies followers are bitter rivals, it has been a very long time because the two groups have clashed for a division crown. Even final season, when each groups joined the Braves within the playoffs, the Mets have been by no means actually within the division race, getting no nearer within the second half than 5 video games again within the remaining week.
The Mets and Braves tied for the division title with 101 wins in 2022, however the Phillies completed 14 video games behind, solely to get scorching within the postseason and attain the World Collection. The Phillies have been dangerous for a very long time earlier than that, the Mets principally dangerous, so we return to 2008 to seek out the newest heated Mets-Phillies division race. The Mets have been a half-game up with 9 to play, however they completed 3-6, whereas the Phillies went 6-2 to win the division by three video games — and went on to win the World Collection.
What has put each groups on this place? Let’s take a look at the most important power to this point for the Mets, Phillies and all of the groups within the majors with information at the moment above .500 this season, beginning with the Nationwide League.
Nationwide League
Report: 47-30 (1st in NL West)
Largest power: Offense
Similar to the Cubs, the Dodgers might need the most effective offense in franchise historical past, league-adjusted. They lead the majors in runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 can be their highest ever. (If we take away pitchers from the equation, the highest mark goes to the 1953 Brooklyn membership at 126.) That is nothing new, because the Dodgers have ranked first or second within the NL in runs scored every season since 2018.
We all know all in regards to the exceptional exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his probability to change into the primary participant to attain 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, however one huge key of late has been Max Muncy — now sporting glasses. By means of April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with no residence runs in 28 video games. He wore glasses for the primary time on April 30 and homered that night time. He is hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet one more deadly bat.
Report: 46-30 (1st in NL East)
Largest power: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez
On paper and within the standings, the Phillies match up with the Mets. Once you dig into the numbers, nevertheless, the Mets needs to be forward of them. Even with their latest slide, the Mets have a plus-60 run differential, with the Phillies at plus-42. The Mets are fifth within the majors in bullpen win chance added, the Phillies means down at twenty third as they’ve struggled with their nearer state of affairs. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and on the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a bit down on the plate and is now injured as nicely.
However the Phillies do have Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his ordinary factor, as soon as once more on the quick record for greatest pitcher in baseball. At 35, he is not solely exhibiting no indicators of age, however has a career-high strikeout charge of 32.5%. Suarez, in the meantime, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in begins after starting the season on the IL. After giving up seven runs in his first begin, he has been in lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA throughout eight begins, together with 5 of seven innings. Suarez has had runs like this earlier than, together with a 2.76 ERA within the first half final season that earned him an All-Star spot.
Report: 45-30 (1st in NL Central)
Largest power: Offense. And protection. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong
How good has the Cubs’ offense been? They’re averaging 5.36 runs per recreation, second within the majors. The final time they got here near that was 5.31 in 2008. The final time they averaged extra per recreation was 1935, when 5 regulars hit over .300. If we regulate for league context, nevertheless, the 2025 Cubs have the very best wRC+ in franchise historical past since 1900. This is a wonderful offense.
How good has the Cubs’ protection been? They’re second within the majors in each defensive runs saved and Statcast’s fielding run worth.
Main the best way on either side of the ball has been the thrilling, the great, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How good has the 23-year-old heart fielder been? Along with his protection, energy and pace, he has already posted 4.3 WAR although 74 video games, a season-long tempo of 9.5. Solely 4 Cubs place gamers have topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby in 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks in 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo in 1967 (9.8).
The analytics say he cannot maintain this up, that pitchers will determine exploit his league-worst chase charge. Besides they have not but (see the 452-foot residence run he simply hit just a few days in the past). Within the Statcast metrics, he ranks within the a centesimal percentile in fielding worth, 99th percentile in baserunning worth, and 89th percentile in batting worth. Name that the triple crown of awesomeness.
Report: 45-31 (2nd in NL East)
Largest power: Beginning pitching
The Mets’ huge three — Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — have all been excellent, with Soto again on observe after a sluggish begin, however the rotation has keyed the crew’s sturdy begin, main the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They’ve accomplished it even with out Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who have not pitched within the majors but this season. Main the best way have been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets administration for signing Holmes as a free agent and changing him from reliever to starter, a gutsy transfer that has paid enormous dividends.
Other than possible regression, the rotation depth will now be examined. Senga simply injured his hamstring and may miss a month. Tylor Megill is out with an elbow sprain and will miss as much as 5 weeks. Montas’ rehab clock ends Sunday, however he received pounded in 4 Triple-A begins for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and simply eight strikeouts in 14⅓ innings. He appears to be like unusable for the rotation proper now, so the Mets might need to bury him within the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab begin for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, so he is at the very least getting nearer. The Mets may also have a weapon ready within the minors if wanted in Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA in Double-Some time averaging 14.6 Ok’s per 9.
Report: 42-34 (2nd in NL West)
Largest power: Entrance-line pitching
The Giants are third within the majors in ERA and fifth in runs allowed per recreation, however have relied on a comparatively small group of pitchers to realize that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has additionally moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.
Not surprisingly, the Giants obtain loads of assist from their residence park: Their ERA is 2.89 at residence and three.72 on the street. That street ERA continues to be seventh greatest within the majors, however the Giants have definitely thrived at residence, the place they’re 23-14 regardless of averaging fewer than 4 runs per recreation. Buying Rafael Devers will assist the offense, however the strain will stay on the pitching to win these low-scoring video games. The Giants are 18-15 in one-run video games, main the majors in one-run video games performed and one-run wins — with 10 such wins coming after they’ve scored three or fewer runs.
Report: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)
Largest power: Place participant sturdiness
OK, that is type of a bizarre one, however we’re attempting to determine how the Brewers are as soon as once more succeeding. Their bullpen has been stable, however definitely has had just a few extra leaks than the previous two seasons, when the pen was dominant, particularly in win chance added. They’re good on the bases, however close to the underside of the league in residence runs. So let’s go along with lineup stability.
The Brewers have performed 76 video games, and 7 gamers have performed at the very least 70 of them. That is fairly exceptional in immediately’s recreation, when staying wholesome generally looks like half the battle. Apart from Joey Ortiz, they’ve all produced constructive WAR — and because the Brewers are usually not utilizing their bench a lot or resorting to call-ups, they’re avoiding the “dangerous” plate appearances that drag down some lineups. No single participant is tearing it up, however having seven barely higher than common hitters could be sufficient to win a wild card.
Report: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)
Largest power: Rotation stability
The Cardinals have been a gentle shock, even with none particular factor standing out. Is anyone on offense killing it? Probably not. Brendan Donovan is hitting over .300 and has a bunch of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting over .300 and has an OPS over .900, however he missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not precisely, no. Nearer Ryan Helsley has 5 blown saves. Is the protection nice? Possibly, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, however the teamwide metrics do not stand out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th in ERA.
However … the rotation has been steady, with the highest 5 guys all making at the very least 14 begins. They’ve wanted solely 4 begins from outdoors these 5, two of these coming in doubleheaders and a 3rd ensuing from a doubleheader. This can be a change from final 12 months, when eight pitchers made at the very least six begins and particularly from the 91-loss season of 2023, when solely Miles Mikolas made greater than 21 begins. Much like the Brewers not utilizing many dangerous place gamers, the Cardinals at the very least have not needed to deploy any dangerous starters — and that retains you in video games.
Report: 40-35 (third in NL West)
Largest power: The large three (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)
The Padres are type of strolling a tightrope proper now, with a number of key performers both injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) or not offering a lot worth (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Nearer Robert Suarez has even had two catastrophic five-run blowups in save conditions. Arraez is hitting .280, however it’s an empty .280 — he is posting a career-low OBP with poor defensive metrics and he has been value 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a 3rd straight season the place his OPS+ will drop since he signed with the Padres, so he has been value simply 0.8 WAR (at the very least his protection has been stable).
Whereas Gavin Sheets has stepped up within the DH position, the Padres’ lineup in any other case lacks depth: Ten totally different gamers have batted at the very least 10 instances and have unfavourable WAR. The Padres will little question look to deal with this on the commerce deadline, however with Arraez and Bogaerts not main contributors, that places all of the strain on Machado, Tatis and Merrill — and Merrill is at the moment on the concussion IL. Tatis could be the point of interest right here: He had an enormous April with eight residence runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped in Could (.184 batting common, .626 OPS) and has been higher in June. Let’s simply say it might be useful for the April Tatis to indicate up the remainder of the best way.
Report: 39-37 (4th in NL Central)
Largest power: A younger rotation lastly rising
The Reds have give you a number of proficient younger pitchers lately, however have had points conserving them wholesome or seeing them productive in the identical season. Up to now, nevertheless, the Reds’ rotation ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR, behind solely the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA in 12 begins) maybe on his technique to a breakout season and Nick Lodolo on his technique to a profession excessive in video games began and innings.
They will have to get Hunter Greene wholesome, although. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL lead with 6.2 bWAR final season and was on his technique to an identical marketing campaign (2.72 ERA in 11 begins) till he missed two weeks with a groin pressure, returned to make three begins, after which landed again on the IL with one other groin pressure and a sore again that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling in for Greene, and the choices past him seem restricted, so getting Greene again will probably be a should within the second half.
Report: 38-37 (4th in NL West)
Largest power: Offensive depth
After main the majors in runs scored in 2024, the Diamondbacks are as soon as once more averaging greater than 5 runs per recreation, one in every of simply 4 groups above that mark. Main the best way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back season extra consistent with his rookie numbers from 2023 besides with much more energy; Ketel Marte, with an OPS over .900; and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 residence runs. Eight of the 9 regulars have an OPS+ over 100, and the highest two bench guys are solid-average as nicely.
The issue: They may want the offense to be even higher. Corbin Burnes is out for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the crew’s solely different constant starter with Zac Gallen’s ERA on the flawed facet of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting hit onerous. Exterior of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been horrible, rating final within the majors in win chance added. The Diamondbacks could have some powerful choices on the commerce deadline and would be the most fascinating crew to observe, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor all heading to free company.
American League
Report: 48-29 (1st in AL Central)
Largest power: Tarik Skubal
The Detroit offense has been a lot improved, rating fifth within the majors in runs per recreation after ending nineteenth final season. On protection, the flexibility of a number of gamers like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps supervisor AJ Hinch. Nonetheless, the clear power right here is reigning Cy Younger Award winner Skubal — who could be on his technique to turning into the primary repeat winner within the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
Skubal started the season with two so-so begins and misplaced each these video games, however since then he is 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 — sure, that is eight walks in his previous 13 begins. The Tigers are 11-2 in these video games, with the 2 losses a Tenth-inning defeat and a 1-0 end. When Skubal begins, the Tigers normally win.
Due to Skubal’s excellence, the Tigers rank third within the majors in rotation ERA. Nonetheless, that most likely overrates their depth, as Hinch has been investing closely in openers reminiscent of Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with solely Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining on common rotation. With Jackson Jobe accomplished for the 12 months with Tommy John surgical procedure, Skubal’s significance ramps up even increased.
Report: 44-32 (1st in AL West)
Largest power: Late-game bullpen
Houston’s offense has really been fairly stable after a poor April — even with out Yordan Alvarez — and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, however the again finish of the bullpen has been the important thing for the crew’s surge into first place.
It begins with nearer Josh Hader. After a homer-prone first season with the Astros in 2024 by which he allowed 12 residence runs in 71 innings and misplaced eight video games, Hader is 5-1 and an ideal 18-for-18 in save alternatives. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, all with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA in additional restricted motion. Total, Houston ranks fifth within the majors in bullpen ERA.
In high-leverage conditions, the bullpen has been even higher, with the bottom OPS within the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 line in response to TruMedia knowledge. That efficiency has helped the Astros to a 14-7 document in one-run video games and a 5-0 mark in further innings.
Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu have sturdy observe information. That is much less true for King, Okert and Sousa — however nothing of their numbers screams fluke, as they’ve mixed for 109 strikeouts and simply 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the most important shock. Signed as a free agent for simply $1.2 million, he entered 2025 with a profession stroll charge of three.8 per 9 innings; instantly he is Greg Maddux and has simply six walks in 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Apart from Abreu, the opposite three setup guys are left-handed, however that hasn’t been a difficulty to this point. This pen appears to be like like the true deal.
Report: 43-32 (1st in AL East)
Largest power: Aaron Choose
For the primary two months of 2025, the Yankees’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Choose was main the best way with a historic begin to his season, placing up numbers solely Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched over a full season. However he wasn’t the one one doing huge injury. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 by means of Could 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 residence runs and had an OPS over 1.000 by means of Could 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS over .900 as late as Could 20.
The Yankees not solely weren’t lacking Juan Soto however have been thriving with out him. Not like final season, when Soto was typically the one main supporting solid member, Choose instantly had a number of mashers round him.
Alas, what occurs when Choose goes right into a hunch? Throughout a latest six-game shedding streak, Choose went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and only a solo residence run for his lone RBI, his common dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and have been shut out in three consecutive video games, simply the seventh time that has occurred in franchise historical past.
It wasn’t simply Choose. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice have all predictably regressed from their scorching begins, resulting in the priority: Can this lineup rating sufficient runs if Choose is not superhuman on a regular basis?
Report: 42-34 (2nd in AL East)
Largest power: Infield offense
The Rays are a balanced crew with none single enormous power. They do lead the majors in stolen bases, however that is primarily from two gamers: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is at the moment within the minors). Their general baserunning is a power, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, however that is a small power and hardly the rationale they’ve surged after sitting 5 video games below .500 on Could 19. They seem to be a good defensive crew, however they’ve had higher defensive groups. The pitching? Good, however they’ve had higher seasons in that space as nicely.
Let’s go along with their general offense from the 4 infield positions. The Rays rank third within the majors in OPS, third in residence runs and third in runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the most effective hitter on this group, having his breakout season at age 27 and in line for doable All-Star choice. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his ordinary factor, with 15 residence runs, and, most significantly, has remained wholesome. Taylor Partitions is the defensive wizard at shortstop, whereas Caballero splits time there in his utility position.
Then there’s Junior Caminero. Keep in mind him? Final 12 months’s hyped prospect does not flip 22 till July and entered the season with simply 213 plate appearances, however it feels as if everybody forgot about him heading into 2025 after he did not instantly tear up the majors as a rookie. He stays a flawed offensive participant with an OBP simply north of .300 and is on tempo to interrupt Jim Rice’s single-season document for grounding into double performs, however the energy has arrived with 17 residence runs — and he is been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since Could 23 with 9 residence runs and 28 RBIs in 26 video games. That included a 4-for-5 recreation Wednesday because the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 12-8. That sounds just like the Rays crew that made the playoffs 5 straight years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and able to beating you in numerous methods.
Report: 40-35 (third in AL East)
Largest power: Lowest strikeout charge in majors
We’re digging right here to seek out someplace the Jays excel. They’re an excellent defensive crew with both Daulton Varsho or Myles Straw in heart (Varsho is on the injured record for the time being), Andres Gimenez at second, and Ernie Clement at third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the most effective defensive metrics of his profession. The pitching definitely hasn’t been a power. They have been outhomered 101 to 77, so energy hasn’t been their recreation. Certainly, the Jays are 5 video games over .500 though they have been outscored by 14 runs.
That makes them a tough crew to learn. They’re 7-13 in blowout video games — these determined by 5 or extra runs — and that is normally a surefire indicator of a nasty crew. Good groups do not get blown out extra typically than they blow out their opponents. The Jays have thus accomplished nicely in shut video games, and one associated trigger could be their capacity to place the bat on the ball. They do have 5 walk-off wins (versus two walk-off losses) and so they’re 5-2 in extra-inning contests. Within the larger image, possibly the contact charge will ultimately flip into extra offense if they’ll flip extra of these balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are simply seventeenth within the majors in remoted energy). With simply 9 residence runs, Guerrero is definitely the first man to observe on this space.
Report: 40-37 (4th in AL East)
Largest power: Garrett Crochet
What, you anticipated this to say crew chemistry or one thing? The promise of youth? No, with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Alex Bregman nonetheless on the injured record, Crochet is the reply right here. The place would this rotation be with out him? Let’s do some math:
Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 in high quality begins
Different starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 in high quality begins
Now, possibly these “others” will enhance. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a mixed 0-9, and Houck is now on the IL, Newcomb is on the Athletics and Fitts is within the minors. Brayan Bello has been higher his previous few begins, however Boston continues to be searching for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even when the younger place gamers begin hitting higher, the Pink Sox are going to wish extra than simply Crochet to stabilize the rotation.
Report: 38-36 (2nd in AL West)
Largest power: The Massive Dumper
Here is a stat which may shock you: The Mariners are third within the majors in street OPS. Is that this really a superb offensive crew, solely to have that good offense masked by taking part in half their video games in a house park the place offense goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 on the street, trailing solely the Cubs and Yankees in OPS. At residence, nevertheless, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 — twenty fourth within the majors in OPS.
The Massive Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the beginning rotation battling accidents, the bullpen a bit skinny behind standout nearer Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez extra “meh” than superior, Raleigh has felt like a one-man present at instances. He leads the majors with 29 residence runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails solely Choose in OPS. He has performed in 73 of Seattle’s 74 video games and does his greatest injury when he begins behind the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 residence runs have come as a catcher. The document for residence runs by a main catcher is Salvador Perez’s 48 in 2021, however solely 33 of these got here as a catcher. The document for residence runs hit whereas catching is Javy Lopez’s 42 in 2003. Raleigh’s 180 wRC+ at the moment sits second highest for a main catcher, behind solely Mike Piazza’s 183 in 1997.
All that undersells how Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He is been clutch as nicely, rating within the high three within the majors in superior metrics reminiscent of win chance added, situational wins added and championship WPA. Oh, and he is hitting .257/.358/.614 at residence. Choose might need MVP all however locked up already, however do not inform that to the Massive Dumper.
