Faculty Soccer Playoff format – SEC debate, probabilities of misplaced bids and extra

Go away it to school soccer to take the silliest, most circuitous attainable path to the simplest, most sensible reply.

Although nothing’s official and issues may take additional foolish turns, a learn of current tea leaves gives the look that these answerable for how the Faculty Soccer Playoff will look in 2026 and past are homing in on a simple, 16-team event with 5 assured spots for convention champions and 11 at-large bids. After months of debates about totally different bracket constructions and conferences getting a number of automated bids, the dialog appears to have returned to a clear and simple bracket.

We’ll fake this implies persons are listening to me. After I wrote about this debate in March, I advisable skipping enlargement to 14 groups and transferring to 16, and I mocked the concept of a number of autobids. Granted, I additionally advisable placing six convention champions within the discipline and placing quarterfinal video games in dwelling stadiums, not simply first-round video games. I will not maintain my breath on these concepts (particularly the previous), however that is nonetheless a fairly good batting common.

After per week of posturing from energy convention leaders, let’s maintain the dialog going. Listed here are some ideas about what we have discovered this week and the debates nonetheless to return

Transferring to 9 convention video games may cost a little the SEC one to 2 playoff groups per yr

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey talked quite a bit this week. He went on “The Paul Finebaum Present.” He talked a couple of scheduling partnership with the Large Ten. He elevated the fines for discipline dashing. He talked about which playoff video games ought to or will probably be on dwelling campuses. He talked about how lengthy this formatting course of takes. He scoffed at being advised to serve the nice of the sport. And he spent a very long time telling everybody how arduous the SEC’s schedules are:

On Thursday afternoon, the SEC offered members of the media with a six-page packet that included color-coded charts utilizing a number of metrics as an example the league’s dominant schedule power. Sankey mentioned the duty for figuring out the CFP’s power of schedule element is putting a steadiness “between human and machine,” referring to the outdated BCS laptop system. … [The packet] included ESPN’s Energy of Report, Invoice Connelly’s SP+, Kenneth Massey’s metric, ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index and ESPN’s Energy of Schedule metric.

Sankey appeared to have two main targets for mentioning power of schedule. For starters, it appeared like he wished to remind everybody that Alabama and its 9-3 document did not get into final yr’s 12-team CFP regardless of strength-of-schedule numbers fairly a bit stronger than these of upper ranked groups akin to SMU (which had gone 11-2), Boise State (12-1) and Indiana (11-1). He mentioned that call left him with important questions concerning the committee and its course of.

“I do assume there is a want for change,” Sankey mentioned of the rating protocol Thursday on the conclusion of his league’s spring conferences. “… How do you make these selections? It is arduous, and we belief the committee to do this, and I respect the folks in there, so this is not a criticism of the folks. That is wanting to grasp the choices. Now we have to have higher readability on the factors that inform these selections.”

Now, all of the strength-of-schedule benefits on the earth did not cease Alabama from shedding to 6-6 Vanderbilt and 6-6 Oklahoma. Within the latter sport, Alabama could not have seemed much less playoff-worthy, shedding 24-3 to the Sooners. Possibly the Tide would have gotten in with a system strategy, however they confirmed no indication that they might make a playoff run on the finish of the season. Plus, we all know that the playoff committee took Alabama’s power of schedule under consideration as a result of it ranked the Tide forward of 11-2 Arizona State, 10-2 Miami and 10-2 BYU, amongst others, regardless of how they seemed on the finish of the common season. If Bama had misplaced to solely one of Vandy or Oklahoma, the Tide would have nearly actually been within the discipline of 12. And so they’d have positively been in a discipline of 16 regardless, together with two different three-loss SEC groups (Ole Miss and South Carolina).

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Greg Sankey discusses the most well liked subjects from the SEC spring conferences

Commissioner Sankey joins The Paul Finebaum Present to element the conversations round attainable CFP modifications and convention schedules going ahead.

Additionally, Sankey did not point out that the committee positioned a one-loss Alabama crew forward of an unbeaten Florida State crew within the CFP rankings only one yr earlier. If we wish to discuss a system, let’s discuss a system. However the SEC has been handled with excessive kindness by the committee on common.

(For the document, I am all for a formula-based rankings system. I put out a BCS-like system rating within the dwelling stretch of every season, and there is worth within the strategy. Folks satisfied themselves that they hated the BCS system, however I’ll without end insist that the principle purpose they hated the system wasn’t the system — it was that the BCS chosen solely two groups to play for the title. With much more groups to decide on now, a system strategy would work fairly effectively.)

Past the makes an attempt to work the referees, nonetheless, Sankey additionally mentioned schedule power because it pertained to the continued dialog concerning the size of the SEC’s convention schedules. The SEC performs eight-game convention schedules, whereas the opposite main energy convention, the Large Ten, performs nine-game schedules. Regardless of this distinction, the metrics cited by the SEC above (together with, sure, my SP+ rankings) are a fairly stark reminder that, between the SEC sometimes having far fewer straightforward matchups than the Large Ten and a stable rotation of annual out-of-conference rivalry video games performed by SEC groups towards ACC applications — Florida towards Florida State, South Carolina towards Clemson, and many others. — the common SEC schedule is already an honest quantity harder than the common Large Ten schedule. Utilizing my current post-spring SP+ projections as a information, SEC groups challenge to have 13 of the 15 hardest schedules within the nation regardless of eight-game convention slates.

Since Sankey serves on the discretion of SEC presidents and, to a level, athletic administrators, it made sense that Sankey wished to push again on the mounting strain to maneuver to 9 video games.

“If we’re not assured that the decision-making about who will get in and why and what are the metrics round it, it may be actually arduous for a few of my colleagues to get to the 9 video games,” Texas A&M athletics director Trev Alberts mentioned this week.

Why make your schedules more durable if it is going to price your convention playoff bids, proper?

There are many legitimate causes for transferring to 9 video games no matter what it does to playoff standing. For starters, it is going to seemingly enhance the worth of the SEC’s media rights contract, giving the league much more of a struggle chest. It will make groups’ dwelling schedules much more thrilling and, doubtlessly, costly. And most significantly, it might make the 16-team convention really feel like an precise convention: With a nine-game schedule, you may play each crew twice in 4 years. With eight-game schedules, these rotations take quite a bit longer. (Sure, that is being written by a Mizzou man who’s bitter that LSU followers, with their tailgating prowess, have had a purpose to return to Columbia solely as soon as in Mizzou’s 13 SEC seasons.)

As a result of we’re utilizing numbers to show that SEC schedules are already tough, let’s use numbers to ask a special query: How way more tough would nine-game SEC schedules be?

To reply this query, I did what I do: I ran a simulation. I created 4 years’ price of nine-game SEC schedules primarily based across the super-clean, super-easy thought of everlasting convention rivalries: You assign each crew three everlasting, annual opponents, and so they play six different opponents home-and-away over two years, then the opposite six over the following two. Voila, you’ve got visited each stadium in your convention and hosted each convention mate at the very least as soon as each 4 years. I have been floored that different enormous conferences such because the Large Ten and Large 12 have not leaned additional into the everlasting rivals idea — the 16-team Large 12 is not making Farmageddon (Kansas State-Iowa State) an annual sport, and the 18-team Large Ten did not arrange annual video games between all of its 4 new Western groups. Regardless, I arrange everlasting rivals for every SEC crew.

• Alabama: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee

• Arkansas: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

• Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State

• Florida: Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

• Georgia: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

• Kentucky: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

• LSU: Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

• Mississippi State: Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss

• Missouri: Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina

• Oklahoma: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

• Ole Miss: LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

• South Carolina: Florida, Georgia, Missouri

• Tennessee: Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

• Texas: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

• Texas A&M: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

• Vanderbilt: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee

These pairings protect all however one of many collection which were performed 90-plus occasions (Alabama-Mississippi State is the one I could not squeeze in, partly as a result of MSU has 4 such collection). They reconnect former Large 8, Large 12 and/or SWC rivalries akin to Oklahoma-Missouri and Texas-Arkansas, however they do not go too far in that regard — at this level, Missouri has performed South Carolina as convention mates as many occasions as Texas A&M (13) and greater than Texas (9), and the groups from the 2 Columbias have performed some unusual and memorable battles already.

There’s clearly a reasonably large distinction in high quality between, say, Auburn’s or LSU’s annual opponents versus that of Kentucky or Ole Miss. However bear in mind: Six of a crew’s 9 convention video games come from the remainder of the pool. Over a four-year rotation, Auburn’s schedules are solely a smidgen more durable than Ole Miss’ on common.

A full nine-game Auburn schedule may seem like this: Alabama, at Georgia, Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M. In the meantime, an Ole Miss schedule may seem like this (frequent opponents in daring): at LSU, Vanderbilt, at Mississippi State, Arkansas, at Kentucky, Auburn, at Missouri, Georgia, at Oklahoma. One performs Alabama, the opposite performs LSU. One performs Kentucky, the opposite performs South Carolina. Over time, the schedule strengths will probably be fairly shut.

Utilizing current nonconference video games as a lot as attainable (with a couple of mandatory tweaks), this is what the 2026 schedule may seem like with 9 whole convention video games and a 3+6 strategy.

Since you’ve acquired some groups now taking part in 5 convention street video games, it will likely be tough to keep away from handing groups some fairly tough patches — Alabama and Missouri taking part in 4 street video games in 5 weeks late within the season, for instance, or Kentucky beginning with back-to-back convention street video games. Nevertheless it’s arduous to not discover how each week is fairly loaded. Some hypothetical 2026 headliners:

• Week 1: Georgia at Ole Miss, Clemson at LSU, Miami at South Carolina, Texas A&M at Tennessee

• Week 2: Ohio State at Texas, Oklahoma at Michigan, Missouri at Kansas, Kentucky at LSU

• Week 3: Florida State at Alabama, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, South Carolina at Auburn, Florida at Kentucky

• Week 4: Tennessee at Georgia, Alabama at Florida, Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, LSU at South Carolina, Illinois at Missouri*

• Week 5: Georgia at Alabama, Auburn at Oklahoma, Florida at Texas, Texas A&M at South Carolina, Ole Miss at Missouri

• Week 6: Oklahoma vs. Texas, Tennessee at Auburn, Missouri at Georgia, South Carolina at Florida

• Week 7: Tennessee at Alabama, LSU at Texas, Auburn at Ole Miss, Oklahoma at Arkansas, Georgia at South Carolina

• Week 8: Arkansas at Ole Miss, Missouri at South Carolina, Oklahoma at Kentucky

• Week 9: Alabama at Texas, Georgia vs. Florida, Ole Miss at LSU, Missouri at Texas A&M

• Week 10: Alabama at LSU, Texas A&M at Auburn, Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Texas at Missouri

• Week 11: Auburn at Georgia, Texas at Arkansas, Florida at Texas A&M, Missouri at Tennessee

• Week 12: LSU at Florida, Georgia at Texas A&M, Missouri at Oklahoma, Alabama at South Carolina

• Week 13: The everyday loaded rivalry week

(* Missouri is someway scheduled to play at Illinois and Kansas in 2026, however as a result of the Tigers drew a slate with 5 convention street video games, I flipped the Illinois sport out of pure comfort.)

Clearly, the real-life 2026 SEC slate can even function numerous these big-time video games, however apart from a comparatively paltry Week 8, each week has some enormous, TV-friendly model matchups. That is an completely loaded schedule.

It is also a schedule that can, as athletic administrators will certainly discover, hand fairly a couple of losses to good groups.

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Paul Finebaum helps CFP transferring to straight seeding in 2025

Paul Finebaum is on board with the Faculty Soccer Playoff shifting to a straight seeding mannequin beginning this season.

Although I shared hypothetical 2026 schedules above, I wished to make use of SP+ projections to have a look at a full four-year rotation and evaluate what it might produce from a wins-and-losses standpoint to what the present eight-game slate produces.

For the league’s elite groups, transferring to 9 video games will not make a lot of a distinction. For example, with its present schedule, SP+ tasks Georgia to win 9.8 video games on common, with an 84.9% probability of going at the very least 9-3 (the hypothetical cutoff line for SEC groups hoping to get into the sector). However with an abridged, three-game nonconference schedule — for essentially the most half, I shrank nonconference schedules by eliminating groups’ second video games towards Group of 5 groups and leaving one sport towards a power-conference opponent, one towards a G5 crew and one towards an FCS crew — Georgia averages 9.7 wins over 4 simulated seasons, with a 79.6% probability of reaching 9-3 or higher on common. There is a bit much less margin for error, however well-projected groups like Georgia will probably be in good condition, regardless.

For the league’s gentle heavyweights, nonetheless, issues get trickier. Florida has a 43.7% probability of ending 9-3 or higher in 2025, however in a nine-SEC-games universe, that drops to 19.6%. 4 others see their odds drop by at the very least 10%, and present lengthy pictures like Vanderbilt (10.2% probability of going 9-3 in 2025) see their odds nearly fully vanish (0.1%).

Total, a mean of 6.2 SEC groups are projected to go 9-3 or higher in 2025. In a nine-game universe, that common shrinks to 4.7. With a 16-team discipline, you could possibly say that the league would go from anticipating round six groups within the discipline to having 4 or 5 groups safely in and campaigning for some 8-4 groups. In the meantime, the league would additionally go from a mean of 13.4 bowl-eligible groups to simply 11.4.

That is not an insignificant change. There can be loads of circumstances the place an 8-4 crew with an off-the-charts power of schedule would even be in good condition, however the professed danger is actual. After all, that is what the cash’s for. Media rights income would most likely rise with expanded convention schedules; plus, the SEC and Large Ten are already assured an enormous portion of future CFP cash anyway, so in the event that they lose a playoff crew right here or there, it is solely going to harm a lot. Nonetheless, it is easy to see why SEC ADs and coaches, whose jobs (and, doubtlessly, bonuses) is perhaps dictated by CFP bids, may balk at making robust schedules harder.

The SEC and Large Ten championship video games are being rendered moot

Among the many essential causes the Large Ten, specifically, was occupied with a variety course of that featured a number of autobids (a rumored 4 every for the Large Ten and SEC) have been that it might permit the 2 conferences — plus, maybe, the ACC and Large 12, which have been prone to obtain two assured bids every in such a construction — to redefine Championship Weekend.

The Large Ten and SEC championship video games offered little-to-no optimistic influence for his or her winners final yr: Oregon beat Penn State within the Large Ten championship to earn a first-round playoff bye however drew a smoking scorching Ohio State within the quarterfinals and misplaced, and Georgia beat Texas within the SEC championship however misplaced quarterback Carson Beck to harm and handed Gunner Stockton his first profession begin in a quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. (Plus, there have been nearly no adverse repercussions for shedding these video games. Penn State and Texas every dropped just one spot within the rankings, and when SMU misplaced to lower-ranked Clemson within the ACC championship sport, the Mustangs fell solely from eighth to tenth and nonetheless acquired in.) With autobids, you could possibly create a number of play-in video games and produce a brand new spectacle whereas avoiding handing further harm danger to simply your prime two groups.

There’s logic in that, even when I did not assume it outweighed the negatives of a number of autobids — that they’d make your complete playoff seem like a Large Ten-SEC invitational, render massive parts of the common season moot (nonconference video games would have nearly no influence on playoff bids, and if a No. 6 seed with an 8-4 document can steal an 11-1 No. 3 seed’s playoff bid, then what is the level of any of this?) and positive seemed like they have been primarily designed to rake in further tv dough.

Latest brainstorming periods reportedly produced concepts akin to giving SEC and Large Ten champions a double-bye in a 16-team bracket, with a primary spherical consisting of play-in video games for the lowest-ranked of the 16 groups, however that ruins the purpose of a clear, straightforward 16-team playoff. However with a plain 16-teamer, the influence of the SEC and Large Ten championships would be the distinction between getting a No. 1 and No. 4 seed. That does not counter the harm danger.

Convention championships are helpful sufficient that I doubt conferences will willingly do away with them. However they really feel like a hindrance to the present course of, and I ponder how convention leaders will sq. that circle. I’ve one thought, although, and it comes from the 2020 COVID season.

When the Large Ten initially introduced it was returning to motion that fall, it created an abbreviated eight-game slate for every crew, adopted by a championship weekend that was meant to function further cross-division video games for every crew throughout the East and West divisions — No. 2 East vs. No. 2 West, No. 3 vs. No. 3, and many others. Granted, issues acquired messy due to optimistic COVID checks and ensuing cancellations, however the Large Ten nonetheless featured 4 video games on championship weekend.

Possibly there’s one thing to the concept of taking part in a full slate of championship week video games, even when they are not playoff play-in video games? Possibly that turns into a part of the regular-season slate, during which, after everybody has performed eight convention video games, the standings decide who you play for the ninth?

Utilizing final yr’s eight-game SEC standings (and adjusting to keep away from rematches the place attainable), we may have despatched Texas and Georgia to play for the SEC title in Atlanta whereas additionally having 6-2 Tennessee (the No. 3 crew within the standings) host 5-3 LSU, 5-3 Alabama host 5-3 Texas A&M, and so forth. That may maintain everybody from taking part in an additional sport, and it might create numerous de facto playoff play-in video games even when they weren’t formally referred to as that.

The brainstorming on this could proceed for some time longer, however there is no doubting that, although I feel a clear 16-teamer is essentially the most favorable conclusion for this lengthy debate, there are nonetheless downsides and wrinkles to iron out.