Last Wednesday night, Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Justin Martinez began the ninth inning with a three-run lead at New York’s Citi Field. However, after a home run, a pair of walks and obvious diminished velocity on his notable fastball, he was done. RHP Ryan Thompson, who throws his “fastball” at roughly 90 mph (and from the side) finished the win. When news came out that Martinez needed imaging for his shoulder — and with LHP A.J. Puk already done for months with his own elbow woes — Thompson and RHP Kevin Ginkel seemed like the reasonable choices for future saves.
Surprise! RHP Shelby Miller, once traded for SS Dansby Swanson and formerly among the top starting pitchers for fantasy, is now appearing for his sixth franchise over the past five seasons. He was the one who got the call for the ninth inning on Thursday. He threw eight pitches and quickly earned his fourth career save (all since 2023). Miller registered five holds in his first 12 appearances this season, permitting nary a run along the way with increased fastball velocity and more than a strikeout per inning, so we should not have been too surprised he saved a win. He may well save myriad wins from now on.
Miller is hardly the last man standing in the Arizona bullpen, but Thompson doesn’t throw particularly hard. Ginkel started this season on the IL due to a shoulder problem and has permitted runs in two out of three appearances. LHP Jalen Beeks saved Sunday’s wild, extra-inning win at Philadelphia — one made possible because Miller blew the save in the ninth inning. That said, Beeks seems unlikely to keep getting chances. Miller just allowed his first runs of the season on Sunday. Puk isn’t returning soon. Martinez might or might not be back soon. Jose Valverde isn’t walking through that door. Someone must close.
Miller enters Monday striking out 29.8% of hitters. He’s not among the league leaders, but it’s a darn good rate for him, and he is back to relying heavily on a splitter that helped him produce a 1.71 ERA (42 IP) for the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers. Last season, with the Detroit Tigers, Miller averaged 93.5 mph with his fastball, throwing it 60% of the time. He threw a hard slider 20% of the time. He has mostly ditched the slider, and his fastball velo is up to 94.5 mph, tying a career best.
Miller, 34, appeared in a career-high 51 games last season, staying healthy for roughly two-thirds of the season, and he pitched in a leverage role. He went 6-8 with seven blown saves. The Diamondbacks appear to be a solid, potential playoff team, and losing Puk and Martinez is a big problem. Who knows when either fellow will return?
It may seem unlikely that Miller stays healthy enough and/or performs well enough to close for long, but if you want Arizona’s closer this week, it’s Miller.
Stock rising
Emilio Pagan, Cincinnati Reds: Pagan continues in his role as primary closer — one that looks safer now that wild Alexis Diaz is back at Triple-A Louisville because he cannot throw strikes with any consistency. At this point, it seems more likely that Pagan, a 33-year-old journeyman who has saved double-digit games just once in his eight seasons, has a better chance of saving Reds wins for the next five months than Diaz. This is finally reflected in the roster figures for ESPN standard leagues, as Pagan passed Diaz for popularity. Pagan is homer prone and his current 3.98 FIP is more telling of his performance than his 2.35 ERA, but if you want saves (as with Arizona’s Miller), he should continue earning them.
Luke Weaver, New York Yankees: We wrote about “proven closer” Devin Williams a few weeks ago, confidently proclaiming this was mostly about BABIP and bad luck, and things would magically work out. They still might. Monday was not a good sign, though. Williams loaded the bases versus the San Diego Padres on a hit and pair of walks and Weaver relieved him, letting everyone score. Weaver even permitted one of his own runners to score, finally muddying his unblemished ERA. Now it is up to 0.59. It feels unlikely that Williams will continue to struggle with command for long, but those seeking saves should add Weaver. It’s a bit concerning that his average fastball velocity is down from 95.7 mph to 94 mph but, Monday aside, he is getting outs.
Zachary Agnos, Colorado Rockies: Recommending a Rockies pitcher is rarely a wise idea, especially with the team seemingly intent on losing more games than last season’s Chicago White Sox. Still, we cannot pretend that Agnos didn’t save their past two wins and, as the story goes in our line of work, every save matters. Agnos, a 24-year-old right-hander, closed games in the minors, and he closed well, with run prevention and worthy strikeout rates.
He hasn’t allowed a run or a walk in 7⅓ innings over six appearances for Colorado, but… he has struck out only one of 26 batters faced. That is not good and perhaps, for these times, rather unprecedented. It feels unsustainable for any degree of success, whether in the altitude of Denver or in a pitcher’s park. RHP Seth Halvorsen, a popular preseason sleeper, saved Colorado’s March 29 win, but has struggled since. Add Agnos at your own peril. Last year’s White Sox lost 121 games, and they totaled 21 saves.
Stock falling
Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers: Megill has not been great, with his 3.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, but it’s hardly his fault that he has had only four save opportunities in five weeks. The Brewers have saves in only five of their 18 wins. Only the White Sox have fewer saves. Things were looking good for Monday night, with a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth against the Houston Astros, but then Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers both knocked in runs and Megill, ranked outside of the top 200 relievers in terms of batters faced — he hasn’t been used much — didn’t even warm up.
There is a luck component here, but fantasy managers do not care, as he is down to just 36.6% rostered in ESPN standard leagues. Can we say for certain that Megill will pick up the pace in saves moving forward? Not really. These things do not have to even out. Megill is a serviceable mid-tier closer, worthy of being on more rosters, but these are not the same Brewers as last season, so there may not be 25 more saves coming.
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Angels: Jansen investors certainly could not complain about his April performance. He pitched eight near-perfect times in March/April, with a Blutarsky-level (0.00) ERA and he saved six wins. Jansen, the active MLB leader in saves and fourth all time, felt safe to rely on. Then, in his first outing of May, in a 1-1 game with the Tigers, he permitted three ninth-inning home runs and six runs overall. How are we feeling now?
Jansen earned a three-pitch (two-out) save the next day, but we know he will not be perfect the rest of this season. The last season in which his final ERA was on the good side of 3.00 was in 2021. Does he have 20 more saves in him? Yeah, probably, because the Angels, with their brutal 7.02 relief pitcher ERA, don’t have much else to compete with him and they must win some games. Just get past that one terrible outing and hope there’s not a second one on the horizon.
Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves: Iglesias ranks fourth among active pitchers with 413 saves, including a drama-free outing on Sunday night against the Dodgers, as he whiffed three of four hitters, but there is something to keep an eye on here. Iglesias has already permitted five home runs, one more than all last season (69⅓ IP), and he has a long history of permitting fly balls that fly over outfield fences. In fact, Iglesias has permitted double-digit home runs as a reliever in three separate seasons.
This season feels like he’ll make it four but, as with Jansen, there seems like little risk of a role change. The other Iglesias numbers/metrics look fine. He’s not losing his role to Pierce Johnson or Dylan Lee. Future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel does lurk at Triple-A Gwinnett, building up velocity for a likely May promotion, but he isn’t “prime Kimbrel” anymore. Iglesias won’t keep the closer role permitting five homers a month, though, so we probably shouldn’t dismiss any possibilities.
