A pair of young hitters who put on power displays over the weekend are among Monday’s top fantasy baseball pickups. One year ago to the day, these two were minor league teammates, slotting first and fourth in the lineup for Triple-A Norfolk. Today, they’re beginning to flourish at the big-league level, albeit for different teams.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles (available in 65.8% of ESPN leagues): He’ll probably be a popular pickup these next few days after delivering his first career multi-homer game on Sunday — and that will be especially true should he continue the hot hitting into the Orioles’ week-opening trip to Minnesota’s Target Field.
Beyond merely the power outburst, Holliday has shown encouraging growth at the plate recently, batting .341/.449/.561 over his last 15 games while significantly decreasing both his ground ball (35.5%, down from 56.7% previously in his MLB career), chase (21.6%, down from 26.3%) and whiff rates (20.3%, down from 32.3%) during that time. Small sample size or not, he’s only 21 years old and brimming with top-shelf talent, meaning that any hot streak by Holliday warrants an optimistic viewpoint.
Kyle Stowers, OF, Miami Marlins (available in 75.6%): Stowers saw Holliday’s multi-homer game and did him one better. Yes, Stowers has a pair of multi-HR efforts in his past four games — and his most-recent of those home runs was a big one, a walk-off grand slam off a 101.7 mph fastball thrown by Athletics closer Mason Miller, hit to the opposite field at the Marlins’ pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
With it, Stowers now has a 12.1% Statcast Barrel rate, 12th-best among batting title-eligible hitters and better than historical standouts in the category, Matt Olson and Corey Seager. He also has a 50.6% hard-hit rate that places him in the 86th percentile. Considering the dearth of elite bats in the Marlins lineup, Stowers could quickly move into a more prominent spot in the order, as he did against right-handed starters on Friday and Saturday while Jesus Sanchez nursed a back issue.
Rotisserie-style player to add
Javier Baez, SS/3B/OF, Detroit Tigers (available in 83.9%): He’s a tough player to trust, after he hit just .221/.262/.347 across the first three seasons of his six-year, $140-million deal with the Tigers. In ESPN standard points leagues, that remains true. Despite starting 23 of Detroit’s last 29 games and batting a respectable .310/.356/.488, Baez’s 50 total fantasy points in that time has been exceeded by 112 other hitters. Ouch!
The low total is almost entirely the product of his free-swinging approach at the plate. Since he’s seeing regular starts between center field, third base and shortstop — and delivering the occasional big hit — he is still worth a look in rotisserie formats. After all, Baez has averaged 24 home runs and 14 stolen bases with a .252 batting average per 162 games played over his MLB career.
Two-start value pickup
Shane Smith, SP/RP, Chicago White Sox (available in 87.0%): One of the season’s most-unexpected breakthrough stories thus far, Smith has limited opponents to three or fewer runs while scoring at least 6.0 fantasy points in each of his first six starts. He can attribute much of that success to the changeup he added during the offseason, a pitch which has generated a 35.2% whiff rate and seven of his 26 strikeouts thus far.
This week, Smith faces the Kansas City Royals and the Marlins, making him one of the best two-start pickups in leagues with weekly transactions. The first start comes in HR-suppressing Kauffman Stadium against a Royals team that has struggled versus changeups (.190 BAA, 33.3% whiff rate). Meanwhile, the latter is a home assignment against a Marlins offense that grades out as one of MLB’s worst.
Deeper-league pickups
Ben Casparius, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (available in 90.5%): He’ll get the start for the Dodgers on Monday, and don’t overlook manager Dave Roberts’ comments over the past week that Casparius might be stretched out further to serve as a regular starter while Tyler Glasnow is on the IL. Thus far, Casparius is leaning much more on his cutter versus left-handed hitters and his slider against right-handers, while posting a 3.5% walk rate across 10 relief appearances and one start. He brings enough velocity (95.8-mph average four-seam fastball) and depth to his repertoire that he’s worth a speculative pickup with this expanded opportunity.
Gunnar Hoglund, SP, Athletics (available in 92.5%): Acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2022’s Matt Chapman trade while at the time recovering from Tommy John surgery, Hoglund joined the Athletics for his first career start on Friday. Though the matchup at Marlins Park was highly favorable for the right-hander, he exhibited the same good velocity and excellent control that he did in the minors, tossing six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts and no walks. It’s that combination of control and ground ball-generating stuff that should make Hoglund’s transition to the majors smoother than an average prospect. Even if he’s only a “matchups type” for now, he’s well worth stashing.
Hyeseong Kim, 2B, Dodgers (available in 94.5%): Tommy Edman‘s placement on the IL this past weekend coaxed the Dodgers to give Kim (who left the KBO to sign a three-year, $12.5-million deal with them during the offseason), his first MLB chance. Although Kim didn’t start either of the team’s two games following his recall, his speed was on full display in Sunday night’s contest, as he stole his first career base in the ninth inning while serving as a pinch runner. Speed should be his ticket to fantasy success, at least initially, as he stole 13 bases over 28 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City while batting only .252/.328/.470 with a 24.4% strikeout rate.
