The ESPN Fantasy staff has been doing mock drafts since late spring. It does not take lengthy for favorites to emerge among the many individuals, particularly when participating in dozens of drafts with the identical individuals.
Philadelphia Eagles star operating again Saquon Barkley, who joined the unique 2,000-yard dashing membership in 2024 and led all RBs with 22.2 fantasy factors per recreation, shouldn’t be the highest again off the board in drafts this summer season. That honor belongs to Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons.
Whereas fantasy managers who have not performed any observe drafts but could be shocked to listen to that, they could be much more astounded that there are some preferring Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty over Barkley within the draft.
Two of our drafters are good candidates to extol the virtues of Jeanty and Barkley. Liz Loza has been choosing Jeanty forward of Barkley all alongside, whereas Tyler Fulghum has been trumpeting the veteran participant as the highest operating again for 2025, even choosing Barkley with the No. 1 decide when he has had the chance.
Which RB do you favor in 2025: Barkley or Jeanty?
Loza: Barkley sewed collectively an undeniably historic season, dashing for a career-high 2,005 yards whereas changing 33 of 43 targets for a further 278 yards receiving. Barkley led the place in fantasy output, scoring on a near-weekly foundation and averaging 22.2 PPR fantasy factors per recreation. His play was electrical. His manufacturing was league-winning. And his quantity was equally sturdy.
My candy (and super-fun) pal Tyler is aware of the way to lean into a great time. Had the timelines synced, he might have put the “Yo” in YOLO earlier than Matthew McConaughey found the bongos. However typically exercising a touch of temperance is important. Like when leveraging everything of your first-round capital on a 28-year-old again who carried the ball a position-high 345 occasions the season prior (and that is not counting the 91 extra totes within the postseason).
The feels swirling round Barkley’s upcoming season are understandably charged. However the truth is, he is operating towards a regression.
Relationship again to 2014, precisely 10 operating backs have cleared 300 carries and not less than 20 receptions. Over that point span — except solely LeSean McCoy in 2014 — every RB has registered a dip in yards per carry, yards per contact and fantasy factors per recreation. Huge-volume backs comparable to Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry recorded quite a few 300-touch seasons, and every time they skilled a decline in effectivity and manufacturing the next season. Some gamers, comparable to Henry in 2021 and Adrian Peterson in 2016, suffered season-ending accidents on the opposite facet of their high-odometer efforts.
Given the composition of the Eagles’ offense and Barkley’s generational ability set, it is unlikely that he’ll totally bust. Nevertheless, it is equally inconceivable that he’ll return worth based mostly on his ADP and put up elite positional stats. As a substitute, I might desire to take my possibilities on Jeanty’s recent legs.
Jeanty’s expertise can also be stated to be generational, having drawn lofty comps to everybody from Steven Jackson to Emmitt Smith. Equal elements pin and bowling ball, the Boise State product is a tackle-shedding ace with a low heart of gravity and pure arms. A do-it-all RB who led the FBS in compelled missed tackles (126), Jeanty is poised to feast in Vegas. The Raiders’ offense has sputtered for the higher a part of the previous decade (or two), however with stability below heart and Chip Kelly calling the performs, Jeanty is best positioned than different rookies who’ve tried rapid fantasy stardom.
To that time, 18 rookie operating backs have completed among the many high 10 on the place in whole PPR fantasy factors since 2012. Ten of these 18 completed seventh or higher. Paradoxically, Barkley was the one again to complete because the digital recreation’s RB1 as a rookie (2018) throughout that span. This is to a passing of the torch … however at a greater worth and with fact-filled context.
Fulghum: My candy pal Liz (additionally super-fun!) is understood for valuing details over emotions. She lays out some compelling details concerning the chance that Barkley will again up a really historic fantasy season. That I can not deny.
Generally, although, in life now we have to eschew such prudent and goal skepticism and let our imaginations run wild — as Barkley did in 2024.
What if Barkley is ready to carry the ball 350-plus occasions once more?
What if the Eagles aren’t as dominant and he performs extra snaps within the fourth quarter of video games?
What if he is used a bit extra within the passing recreation (we all know he has the chops)?
What if Jalen Hurts does not vulture 15 dashing TDs with the tush push?
I feel there’s loads of cause to lean into that optimism. Barkley ought to as soon as once more be operating behind probably the most dominant offensive line in soccer, and the Eagles are very possible going to as soon as once more be close to the highest of the league in factors scored per recreation.
Pay attention, I’m additionally very excessive on Jeanty, however he’s merely an unproven but promising participant at this level. With Barkley, now we have proof of idea. We have seen it on the sector, and it’s wonderful: 355.3 PPR factors (in simply 16 video games); seven weeks with 25-plus factors; 5 with 30-plus, highlighted by a season-best 46.2 vs. the Rams in Week 12. This participant, on this offense, is an absolute hammer.
Understand that Barkley did all of this in his first season with the Eagles. It is doable his 2024 season was only a prelude to a really nuclear-ceiling season in 2025. So, do not be afraid. Do not let the traits Liz identified paralyze you with worry in Spherical 1. Barkley is as soon as once more primed to anchor your fantasy staff as a league-winning again. Is not {that a} snug feeling? All it’s important to do is be sensible sufficient to take Barkley over Jeanty — or some other again for that matter — in Spherical 1.
