NBA Finals 2025 – 7 issues that would resolve Thunder-Pacers

With a 125-108 win on Saturday, the Indiana Pacers clinched a spot within the 2025 NBA Finals, organising one of the shocking championship matchups in league historical past.

In some respects, the fourth-seeded Pacers and top-seeded Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder could not be additional aside. Oklahoma Metropolis entered this season among the many favorites for the title and dominated the Western Convention from begin to end, whereas Indiana scuffled to a shedding document till flipping the change in January. The Thunder have the brand new league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus one other All-NBA honoree and two All-Defensive picks; the Pacers’ solely recipient of any season honors is Tyrese Haliburton, who landed on the All-NBA third crew.

But in different respects, the finalists have rather a lot in widespread, as two younger groups led by dynamic guards that play in the midst of the nation. That is the primary Finals for the reason that introduction of the luxurious tax through which neither crew is a tax-payer. Each finalists play a enjoyable, participating fashion and are arrange for extra postseason success within the seasons to return.

Earlier than the Finals tip off on Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC), listed below are the stats, traits and head-to-head wrinkles to find out about this sudden Thunder-Pacers showdown.

A uncommon battle of All-NBA level guards

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Though it is unlikely the 2 gamers will really spend a lot time guarding one another — extra on that beneath — the purpose guard matchup might be nicely value watching on this collection. Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton are the primary pair of All-NBA picks at level guard to fulfill within the Finals since Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving a decade in the past. Sadly, that matchup was short-lived: Irving suffered a patella fracture in Sport 1 of the collection, although we received to see the 2 gamers sq. off once more in each 2016 and 2017.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton succeed offensively in wildly completely different fashions. The MVP has by no means averaged greater than this season’s 6.4 assists per sport, however he led the NBA by scoring 32.7 PPG, the sixth-highest common ever for a full-time level guard. In the meantime, Haliburton is the last word table-setter, having led the league in assists per sport in 2023-24 and completed third this season. Haliburton is a harmful scorer too, having topped 30 factors twice within the convention finals, however he is able to dominating a sport with out scoring 20.

Each gamers share sturdy play en path to the Finals. After a gradual begin to the playoffs that noticed him shoot simply 35% within the first three video games of the Thunder’s sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, Gilgeous-Alexander has greater than validated his MVP award. He leads all gamers in wins above substitute participant (WARP) throughout the playoffs by my metric. Haliburton entered Sport 6 of the convention finals third in WARP behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

— Kevin Pelton

Haliburton has a passive historical past vs. OKC

In principle, the Thunder’s protection is ideally suited to cease Haliburton, with Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso all bringing completely different defensive strengths to the fore in opposition to elite guards.

It is performed out that method in opposition to Haliburton. In 4 conferences between these groups over the past two seasons, Haliburton has averaged simply 12 factors per sport — his lowest common in opposition to any opponent in that span.

Haliburton has been largely passive in opposition to the Thunder’s fleet of perimeter stoppers. His 10.2 area objective makes an attempt per sport are his second-fewest in opposition to any opponent in that span, and his 0.5 free-throw makes an attempt — he is drawn only one taking pictures foul in 4 video games — are his fewest. The Thunder have largely restricted his playmaking, too, as Haliburton’s 8.5 assists per sport in opposition to the Thunder are tied for his fourth-fewest in opposition to any opponent over the past two seasons.

Remarkably, Haliburton scored simply eight factors on 10 shot makes an attempt in 122 matchups when he was guarded by Dort, per GeniusIQ monitoring. That is his lowest shot fee in opposition to any particular person defender with a minimal of fifty matchups in that span. (Haliburton’s highest shot fee, conversely, got here when he was matched up in opposition to Jalen Brunson, however the Thunder’s stout protection does not supply any comparable targets that he can assault like he did within the convention finals.)

Suffice it to say, the Pacers level guard should play a lot better, and far more aggressively, for his crew to have an opportunity at a Finals upset.

— Zach Kram

The Finals options the No. 2 offense vs. the No. 1 protection

It is energy on energy when Indiana has the ball throughout the Finals. The Pacers rank second amongst all groups in playoff offensive ranking, trailing solely the Cleveland Cavaliers, who feasted on the Miami Warmth in spherical one earlier than shedding to Indiana. On the opposite aspect, Oklahoma Metropolis’s fearsome protection is permitting 3.4 factors per 100 possessions fewer than another crew.

That is the primary time since 2022, when the No. 1 Golden State offense confronted the No. 2 Boston protection, that we have seen this sort of matchup within the Finals and the 14th time complete for the reason that NBA started monitoring possessions in 1997.

Over that span, neither elite offense nor elite protection has the clear higher hand. The highest-2 offense has received seven of the 13 collection. Efficiency on the non-strength finish of the courtroom has tended to be predictor. In 9 of the 12 collection the place one crew ranked higher than the opposite on the other aspect of the ball, the superior crew has received. That is excellent news for the Thunder, who’re third in offensive ranking up to now within the playoffs. The Pacers rank simply ninth in defensive ranking.

Do not count on one other 3-point barrage from Indy

A key motive Indiana’s offense is so electrical and Oklahoma Metropolis’s protection so dampening is each items’ mastery of 3-point vary. Indiana’s 40% 3-point accuracy leads all playoff groups by a large margin, and Haliburton is the one Pacers starter beneath that mark individually.

That unstoppable power will meet an immovable object on the 3-point line. Oklahoma Metropolis allowed its opponents to shoot simply 34% from distance within the common season, which led the league, and so they’re down at 33% within the playoffs.

It has lengthy been a debate amongst NBA analysts whether or not opponent 3-point share is primarily the results of ability or of luck — however at any fee, it appears clear that the Thunder protection has each on its aspect. In keeping with GeniusIQ, the Thunder ranked third in opponent 3-point shot high quality this common season (based mostly on components corresponding to defender distance and shooter id), and so they ranked second in opponent 3-point shot making (precise accuracy minus anticipated accuracy).

However the Thunder have one weak point of their 3-point protection. Within the common season, they allowed the third-most 3-pointers within the league, per Cleansing the Glass, with 41% of their opponents’ shot makes an attempt coming from past the arc. And that determine remains to be a excessive 40% within the postseason, although they’ve performed a plurality of their playoff video games in opposition to the Denver Nuggets, who ranked final in offensive 3-point fee this 12 months.

Oklahoma Metropolis strategically chooses to chop off photographs on the rim, however that focus comes with a tradeoff: It has to stay with its opponents firing from deep, even when they’re high quality shooters, corresponding to Donte DiVincenzo and Michael Porter Jr. in earlier rounds. That method may show disastrous within the Finals if the Pacers keep this sizzling.

However on the similar time, the stats recommend that gamers like Nembhard (a 29% 3-point shooter within the common season) and Siakam (39%) most likely will not proceed to make almost half their 3-pointers. Whether or not they can stave off regression a bit longer may swing the collection.

— Kram

Put together for a sooner Finals?

Sometimes, because the stakes rise and the video games get extra tense, NBA groups play slower and extra methodically. Right here is the common tempo for the final eight Finals:

However Oklahoma Metropolis and Indiana have proven no proof they wish to play slower. The Thunder are averaging 100.6 possessions per playoff sport this season, which ranks second behind solely the Memphis Grizzlies, who misplaced in opposition to the Thunder in a first-round sweep. In third place behind OKC is Indiana, with 98.4 possessions per sport.

Put one other method, the final actually fast-paced Finals was in 2017, when the Golden State Warriors — in Kevin Durant’s first season with the crew — knocked off the Cleveland Cavaliers in 5 video games.

However based mostly on how each the Thunder and Pacers wish to play, they could be poised for one more high-octane, up-and-down matchup.

— Kram

Indiana’s run among the many impossible in Finals historical past

Though the Pacers reached the convention finals final 12 months, getting swept by the Celtics, oddsmakers gave them little probability of going a spherical additional this season. Indiana began the season with 20-1 odds to win the East at ESPN BET, tied for sixth-best within the convention. After adjusting for the home edge, that implied a couple of 4% probability of the Pacers reaching the Finals.

By way of championship odds, simply two groups that reached the Finals up to now 4 a long time have been larger preseason longshots to win all of it than Indiana at 50-1, per ESPN Analysis: the 2019-20 Warmth (75-1) and 2001-02 New Jersey Nets (60-1).

Along with these groups, the opposite 4 with preseason odds of 30-1 or greater that reached the Finals all misplaced the collection. Up to now, the 2014-15 Warriors (28-1) are probably the most inconceivable title winners on document when it comes to preseason odds. If the Pacers go on to win this collection in yet one more upset, they’d smash that document.

— Pelton

Two extra possibilities at historical past

If the Pacers received the Finals, they’d stand out in opposition to the ranks of previous title-winners, all however two of which have entered the playoffs as top-3 seeds. The one exceptions are the 1994-95 Houston Rockets, who had been the West’s No. 6 seed after they received their second consecutive title; and the 1968-69 Boston Celtics, who had been the East’s No. 4 seed after they received their eleventh title in 13 years.

In different phrases, the Pacers may turn into the primary champion in league historical past that wasn’t both a top-3 seed or a defending champ.

Indiana additionally appears like an uncommon championship candidate due to its plus-2.2 level differential. Since 1960, the 1994-95 Rockets (plus-2.1) and 1977-78 Washington Bullets (plus-0.9) are the one champions with worse regular-season figures.

The Pacers’ résumé appears extraordinarily just like that of the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks, who had an opportunity to attain all of those similar feats that at the moment are on Indiana’s doorstep. Indiana landed the East’s No. 4 seed with a 50-32 document and plus-2.2 level differential; final 12 months’s Mavericks landed the West’s No. 5 seed with a 50-32 document and plus-2.2 level differential. After all, that inferior observe document paved the best way for Dallas’ five-game loss within the Finals.

On the opposite aspect, Oklahoma Metropolis would additionally rank towards the acute finish of a historic leaderboard if it received the Finals. The Thunder went 68-14 within the common season and, with 4 extra wins, would attain 84 complete wins for the season; the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who went 72-10 earlier than cruising by way of the playoffs, are the one champion in NBA historical past with extra.

For this achievement, it helps that Oklahoma Metropolis must rack up 16 playoff wins to clinch the title, whereas groups in earlier eras with extra condensed playoff codecs did not must win so many.

Nonetheless, solely 4 champions in NBA historical past completed with a greater regular-season document than the Thunder: the 1995-96 Bulls (72-10), the 1996-97 Bulls (69-13), the 1971-72 Lakers (69-13) and the 1966-67 76ers (68-13).

— Kram