Almost a month after the 2025 NBA playoffs started, 4 groups — the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves — are an impediment away from reaching the Finals.
The Pacers, who toppled the Milwaukee Bucks within the first spherical, upset the dominant Cleveland Cavaliers to make approach for his or her second consecutive convention finals berth. They’re going to tip off the East finals towards the Knicks on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, TNT) at Madison Sq. Backyard, the place New York delivered its ultimate dagger to the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics. The workforce will proceed its try and convey the Empire State its first convention title since 2000.
Within the West, the Thunder sunk the Denver Nuggets in seven video games after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in Spherical 1. Ready for them Tuesday are the Timberwolves (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT), who took down the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in 5 video games every.
With a shot on the Larry O’Brien Trophy only a spherical away, our NBA specialists break down how every workforce bought right here, what we’re listening to about every collection and what to anticipate from the 4 champion hopefuls.
Schedule and information | Convention finals skilled picks | Offseason information
Japanese Convention
How did the Pacers get right here?
The Pacers are again within the convention finals for the second consecutive season, however the path has not all the time been linear. Final yr’s convention finals run was nonetheless met with questions after a rash of accidents within the East cleared the sphere for Indiana to turn out to be one of many NBA’s ultimate 4 earlier than Boston gained in a sweep.
The Pacers adopted that up with a gradual begin to the season — they have been 16-18 on Jan. 1 — however since then, they’ve been top-of-the-line groups within the NBA. Indiana is 42-16 because the starting of the calendar yr, together with the postseason, advancing previous Milwaukee within the first spherical earlier than upsetting 64-win Cleveland regardless of not being favored in any recreation throughout the second spherical. The Pacers once more confronted opponents hampered by vital accidents — each the Bucks and the Cavs had All-Stars sit out video games of their collection, together with Damian Lillard, Darius Garland and newly minted Defensive Participant of the Yr Evan Mobley — and the Pacers took care of enterprise to place away each groups in 5 video games.
Tyrese Haliburton has already hit two profitable photographs within the postseason and is averaging 17.5 factors, 5.5 rebounds and a playoff-high 9.3 assists, which powers Indiana’s relentless offense. It is what led the Pacers to a Recreation 7 win over the Knicks at Madison Sq. Backyard within the second spherical of the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers have used the arrogance from final season to gas them for one more deep postseason run. — Jamal Collier
How did the Knicks get right here?
New York’s path to the convention finals has been considerably exceptional. The Knicks have been undoubtedly good throughout the common season, however removed from dominant, with a middling 15-13 document after the All-Star break. They often beat the groups they have been purported to however logged a 15-23 mark towards golf equipment with profitable data — the worst, by far, of the NBA groups to earn home-court benefit for the postseason’s first spherical.
Much more eye-popping: New York was winless in 10 video games towards the league’s three 60-win groups. The Knicks have been 0-8 towards the top-seeded Cavs and second-seeded Celtics, marking the primary No. 3 seed to go winless towards the highest two groups in its convention because the present playoff format got here into play in 1984, per the Elias Sports activities Bureau. (It is also noteworthy that the majority of these eight video games weren’t even aggressive.)
However between the Knicks’ never-say-die mentality that propelled them to start the Boston collection, and backup heart Mitchell Robinson hitting his stride and wreaking havoc on the glass for 2 collection in a row after sitting out the primary 60 video games of the common season, this comparatively new-look membership seems to be jelling at simply the proper time. It is one thing the workforce in all probability might want to compete with a Pacers squad that has been enjoying like one of many league’s finest for months now. — Chris Herring
What we’re listening to on the collection
In speaking with sources about this collection, a number of talked about the identical factor: kinds make collection. The workforce that controls the model through which this collection is performed in all probability will win it and advance to the NBA Finals for the primary time in additional than a technology.
“These are two groups constructed fully in a different way,” one scout stated. “[New York] is top-heavy, and has leaned in that route with its strikes [trading for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns last summer] on the expense of its depth. And [Indiana] is constructed extra holistically, and depends on that depth to put on you down.”
New York, with a methodical offense led by Jalen Brunson, goes to need the sport to be a half-court rock struggle. Indiana, however, is likely to be probably the most profitable workforce at sustaining a fast-break mentality within the playoffs, and can depend on that to put on down the Knicks because the collection progresses. That is the formulation we’ve got seen the Pacers deploy over the previous two playoff runs throughout their 4 collection wins, and the identical factor will apply on this one.
The 2 groups are pretty evenly matched throughout the board. New York has Bridges to defend Haliburton, and OG Anunoby to defend Pascal Siakam. Cities and Myles Turner are like-for-like choices within the center. However final yr, Andrew Nembhard — an excellent defensive guard — could not deal with Brunson within the convention semifinals. That might want to change for Indiana to advance.
“Can he do a greater job on Brunson?” one other scout stated. “That would resolve the collection.”
One other scout stated a matchup to look at can be whether or not Robinson can have the same affect to what he did towards the Boston Celtics, when he dominated the paint, or if the Pacers can get out and run and mitigate his affect. Robinson going up towards Thomas Bryant when the second items are on the court docket is a matchup that, heading into the collection, feels as if it ought to go in New York’s favor. — Tim Bontemps
Will New York’s beginning lineup be capable to hold tempo with Indiana’s?
Indiana boasts the perfect high-volume lineup within the playoffs: Haliburton, Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam and Turner have a plus-22.1 internet ranking after posting a plus-11.9 within the common season. However the Knicks’ beginning 5 has been outscored within the playoffs, with a minus-4.7 internet ranking, after a mere plus-3.3 mark within the common season.
In different phrases, the Pacers’ beginning and shutting lineup has completely blitzed their opponents, permitting Indiana to rack up huge leads and shut sturdy; that group is athletic and balanced, with a powerful identification. However New York has usually fallen behind in these playoffs, necessitating late comebacks, as a result of its gifted beginning lineup hasn’t meshed as cohesively as anticipated. The Knicks’ 5 has performed effectively in spurts, however the Pacers’ has been far more constant all through the season when wholesome. That distinction might give Indiana the benefit on this collection, as a result of sooner or later, New York’s behavior of recognizing their opponents double-digit leads will come again to hang-out them. — Zach Kram
Western Convention
How did the Timberwolves get right here?
The Wolves are in back-to-back convention finals for the primary time in franchise historical past, however they are not approaching their matchup with the Thunder as in the event that they’ve arrived.
“No one anticipated us to beat the Lakers, nobody anticipated us to beat the Warriors,” Minnesota guard Donte DiVincenzo stated after his workforce bounced Golden State within the second spherical. “We all know that nobody goes to choose us [against the Thunder], and we’re nice with that.”
The Wolves embraced their underdog standing by beginning the postseason on the street and beating the tails off the Lakers in Recreation 1, then gutting out three extra shut wins to advance in 5 video games. They bought a break when Stephen Curry was sidelined after Recreation 1 of the convention semifinals and dominated the Warriors from the second half of Recreation 4 by way of the top of Recreation 5 to arrange a showdown with the Thunder.
Although Minnesota completed the common season going 17-4 and has dominated the postseason up to now, it took the Wolves a while to materialize as a contender. They began off 8-10 and have been simply 22-21 greater than midway by way of the season earlier than the items really match. DiVincenzo and Julius Randle are the brand new characters of their story, acquired in a coaching camp commerce that despatched Karl-Anthony Cities to the New York Knicks. DiVincenzo has supplied a two-way punch off the bench and the 30-year-old Randle has performed the perfect basketball of his profession this postseason, averaging 23.9 factors on 50.9% taking pictures with 5.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists.
And the Wolves’ constants stay 23-year-old celebrity Anthony Edwards, defensive stalwarts Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, and the regular management of veteran level guard Mike Conley and coach Chris Finch. Edwards, who has been challenged by Finch to enhance his decision-making because the workforce depends on him increasingly more to run the offense, continues to set the tone for the group along with his infectious confidence. As such, he let everybody know that he needs greater than only a convention look this time.
“There is no such thing as a satisfaction,” Edwards stated after ending off the Warriors. “We’ve not [done] something but.” — Dave McMenamin
How did the Thunder get right here?
Oklahoma Metropolis’s Recreation 7 rout of the Nuggets was an excessive model of the Thunder’s journey so far. The recipe for dominance consists of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s environment friendly brilliance, Jalen Williams serving as his versatile sidekick and a swarming, smothering protection creating all types of havoc.
That is how the Thunder set a franchise document with 68 wins throughout the common season and an NBA document for level differential with a median margin of plus-12.9 factors.
Gilgeous-Alexander in all probability can be awarded his first MVP trophy subsequent week largely as a result of he averaged a league-leading 32.7 factors on 63.7% true taking pictures, which have been each profession bests. He has struggled by his requirements throughout the postseason, averaging 29.0 factors on 58.6% true taking pictures, however Gilgeous-Alexander rose to the event when the Thunder actually wanted it within the second spherical. After Denver took a 2-1 collection lead, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.8 factors on 65.6% true taking pictures within the ultimate 4 video games, making a collection of clutch photographs to shut out Video games 4 and 5.
Williams had an important Recreation 7 — 24 factors on 10-of-17 taking pictures and 7 assists — to complete an underwhelming offensive collection. He was solely 10-of-43 from the sphere within the earlier three video games, together with 3-of-16 within the Recreation 6 loss. He was a first-time All-Star this season, and Oklahoma Metropolis will want him to carry out at that stage within the West finals.
Quick breaks are likely to gas Williams, who’s spectacular within the open court docket. A variety of his finishes in Recreation 7 began with defensive stops, because the Thunder transformed 23 Nuggets turnovers into 37 factors. Oklahoma Metropolis did not simply have the NBA’s stingiest protection by a big margin this season. Its protection usually is its finest offense. The Thunder led the league in turnovers pressured (17.0) and factors off of turnovers (21.8) throughout the common season. These numbers have elevated — 18.3 turnovers transformed into 24.7 factors — throughout the run to the convention finals. — Tim MacMahon
What we’re listening to on the collection
Oklahoma Metropolis has been the perfect workforce within the league all season. It gained 68 video games, has improbable versatility at each ends and the probably league MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander. However that hasn’t stopped scouts from pondering the Thunder might fall wanting their first Finals journey since 2012 by the hands of a Minnesota workforce that has gained its first two collection in 5 video games every.
“That can be a enjoyable as hell collection,” one scout stated. “Minnesota is huge and lengthy, and comes at you in several methods.
“Like each different younger workforce, OKC has to earn it, and getting by way of [Nikola] Jokic definitely is a part of taking that subsequent step.”
Minnesota’s measurement and energy throughout the board — together with being huge on the guard spots and rotating by way of Naz Reid, Randle and Gobert within the paint — matches up fairly effectively with Oklahoma Metropolis’s need to make each recreation a tough and tumble one, which has been crucial to the Thunder’s defensive identification this season.
However the purpose the OKC wanted to go the space with Denver was as a result of its offense was cold and warm, notably from the skin. That particularly was the case for Williams, who adopted up a 33-point efficiency in Recreation 3 by going a mixed 10-for-43 in Video games 4, 5 and 6 as Oklahoma Metropolis’s second perimeter scoring risk alongside Gilgeous-Alexander.
“Oklahoma Metropolis has far more explosive-night functionality,” one other scout stated. “I assumed they might have extra success than they’ve had towards Denver offensively.
“I believe OKC has the perfect roster within the NBA, however we do not know if guys two by way of eight could make sufficient photographs. If they will, they win in a rout. However, if they do not, it is a wrestle.” — Bontemps
Will the Wolves win a recreation of zones?
The Thunder’s uneven outdoors taking pictures compelled the Nuggets to make use of heavy zone protection of their collection. In truth, the 55 zone possessions Denver performed in Recreation 4 tied probably the most by a workforce in any recreation throughout the common season and playoffs, per GeniusIQ monitoring.
Based mostly on that monitoring, it exhibits Oklahoma Metropolis averaged simply 1.04 factors per possession towards zone protection over the primary six video games of the collection as in comparison with 1.07 towards the Nuggets’ conventional man-to-man. The Thunder appeared to determine issues out of their Recreation 7 blowout, however that got here towards a compromised Denver workforce with Aaron Gordon enjoying by way of a hamstring pressure.
Consequently, we’ll undoubtedly see Minnesota make the most of zones after having practically per week off to organize for this collection. The Timberwolves performed 52 zone possessions in 4 head-to-head conferences with Oklahoma Metropolis throughout the common season, based on GeniusIQ, simply their most towards any opponent.
Minnesota coach Chris Finch leaned into the zone protection in back-to-back video games towards OKC popping out of the All-Star break. The zone helped the Timberwolves erase a 22-point Oklahoma Metropolis lead within the fourth quarter of the second recreation, which Minnesota gained in additional time. Per GeniusIQ, the Thunder totaled solely seven factors on 17 possessions towards zone within the ultimate interval and OT. — Kevin Pelton
