The Minnesota Timberwolves have been reeling on the finish of February.
They’d simply misplaced to the league’s worst staff, the Utah Jazz, in a recreation through which Anthony Edwards was suspended for exceeding the NBA’s technical foul restrict. They have been caught with a 32-29 document, ninth within the West, and their massive offseason commerce of Karl-Anthony Cities for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo seemed like a bust.
In sum, Minnesota had seemingly regressed from upstart convention finalist to also-ran, and the franchise was coping with an ongoing possession dispute for good measure.
However in March, a change flipped contained in the Goal Middle. Over the remainder of the common season, the Timberwolves went 17-4, rising out of the play-in morass to the No. 6 seed. They beat the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in 5 video games apiece — eliminating LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler III and the injured Stephen Curry alongside the best way — to return to the Western Convention finals. They even resolved their long-simmering possession fracas.
And though the Timberwolves misplaced Sport 1 of the convention finals in a blowout towards the No. 1 seed Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, they’ve proved that they are not your common No. 6 seed. As a substitute, they’ve a strong likelihood to grow to be simply the third No. 6 seed in NBA historical past to achieve the championship spherical, becoming a member of the 1995 Houston Rockets, who received the Finals, and the 1981 Rockets, who misplaced there.
Forward of Sport 2 of the West finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), let’s study how the Timberwolves turned their season round, the celebrities who’ve stepped up and the way precisely the top-seeded Thunder took all of it away.
A brand new power emerges
From March 1, the Timberwolves had the second-best document (17-4) and level differential (plus-11.4) within the NBA.
To be truthful, they benefited from a straightforward schedule. Based on ESPN analytics, Minnesota had the league’s second-easiest schedule in March and April, and the typical staff would’ve been anticipated to put up a plus-2.6 level differential in that stretch.
Nonetheless, Minnesota’s plus-8.8 schedule-adjusted level differential over that span (11.4 minus 2.6) nonetheless would have rated close to the highest of the league. The Timberwolves’ late-season surge was extra a mirrored image of their strengths than their opponents’ weaknesses.
The gas that powered that surge was a shock, although. Since buying and selling for Rudy Gobert in 2022, the Timberwolves have usually embraced a defensive id; final season, they led the league in defensive ranking, however ranked simply seventeenth on offense. So when their protection declined from elite to merely good this season, the staff tumbled within the standings.
Minnesota’s protection did not change a lot in the course of the scorching streak: It ranked sixth via February and seventh in March and April. However the staff’s offensive rank rose from thirteenth on the finish of February to second in March and April; solely the Thunder scored extra effectively than Minnesota over that span.
The Timberwolves’ offense improved largely due to success on the rim. Throughout their 21-game surge, the Timberwolves took the fewest midrange photographs within the league, per Cleansing the Glass, as they made a extra concerted effort to assault the basket.
That method has carried over to the playoffs, the place Minnesota ranks second in rim fee (behind the Detroit Pistons) and final in midrange frequency. Via the primary two rounds of the playoffs, the Timberwolves generated probably the most factors per 100 possessions off drives, in response to GeniusIQ, signaling their aggression contained in the paint.
In addition they improved on their ending as soon as they arrived on the rim. The Timberwolves ranked twenty first in area purpose share on dunks and layups earlier than March, per GeniusIQ, however they’re as much as sixth place since then.
A surging star: Randle finds his groove
No participant symbolizes the Timberwolves’ rise higher than Randle, who spent most of his debut season in Minnesota struggling to fill the void left by Cities’ departure.
Though Randle entered this season with a horrible playoff résumé — throughout two postseason runs as a Knick, he shot 34% from the sector and had extra turnovers than assists — he had all the time been a dependable regular-season presence. In his final 4 seasons in New York, Randle made three All-Star groups and acquired two All-NBA nods.
However he isn’t a one-for-one alternative for Cities; Randle is a greater playmaker than the 7-footer, however a a lot worse shooter who’s extra methodical on the ball. Till March, he struggled to mesh that novel talent set inside Minnesota’s present offensive infrastructure, which generally deferred to Edwards and Mike Conley to provoke actions.
But by the point he returned from a proper adductor pressure at the beginning of March, Randle had sufficient reps to slot in higher. And he employed the basic, time-tested “shoot higher” technique, dramatically bettering from each 2- and 3-point vary. His scorching streak has continued within the playoffs.
Earlier than March, Randle was averaging 0.92 factors per isolation, per GeniusIQ, which ranked 53rd out of 64 gamers with no less than 150 isolations. However since then, Randle is averaging 1.12 factors per isolation, which ranks sixth amongst 21 gamers with no less than 150 performs and locations him subsequent to star scorers like Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The opposite former Knick who joined Randle within the commerce additionally discovered his legs because the season went on. Via his first 25 video games in Minnesota, DiVincenzo had made simply 32% of his 3-pointers, and although he rose to 37% by mid-January, a toe pressure saved him out of the lineup for greater than a month.
However after DiVincenzo returned, he made a scorching 45% of his 3-point tries, which was even higher than the Timberwolves anticipated once they added him to their perimeter rotation final Fall. Abruptly, a once-rotten commerce seemed splendid, as all the important thing components have been flourishing for his or her new groups.
How OKC neutralizes the Wolves’ offense
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Anthony Edwards assured Wolves will bounce again in Sport 2
Anthony Edwards breaks down the Thunder’s protection and says the Timberwolves shall be prepared for Sport 2.
Here is the dangerous information for Minnesota, which has been the second-best staff within the NBA since March. The staff with the finest metrics since March? The Thunder, after all, with a 20-3 document and plus-13.3 level differential to shut the common season, whereas enjoying a a lot more durable schedule than Minnesota.
That comparability underscores the tough matchup the Timberwolves face within the convention finals — even at their finest, they nonetheless could not fairly preserve tempo.
In Sport 1 within the convention finals, Randle saved up his finish of the cut price, scoring a team-high 28 factors on stellar 9-for-13 taking pictures. (One help versus 5 turnovers damage his general stat line, nevertheless.)
The Thunder shut off all the pieces else that had powered Minnesota’s offense over the past two-plus months. The Timberwolves scored simply 20 factors within the paint in Sport 1, which is lower than half their earlier low within the postseason, and is tied for the bottom output for any staff in a playoff recreation since 2016-17, in response to NBA Superior Stats.
As a result of Oklahoma Metropolis’s perimeter defenders are higher than their counterparts on the Lakers and Warriors, the Thunder can follow the Timberwolves’ drivers, forcing awkward passes again out to the perimeter as an alternative of high-percentage makes an attempt on the rim.
“They clogged the paint,” Edwards stated after the sport. “That is what they do. They do not bought a lot measurement down there, so that they financial institution on us not making photographs, I assume. As a result of each time I am going to the rim, it is like 4 folks within the paint.”
The Thunder are blissful to give up 3-pointers, rating twenty eighth in opponent 3-point fee within the common season, per Cleansing the Glass. And the Timberwolves are blissful to take them, placing up 51 triples in Sport 1. Whether or not the Timberwolves can come again to upset the No. 1 seed might hinge on whether or not they could make the Thunder pay for that method.
Sadly, most of their shooters have gone chilly on the incorrect time. Even in collection wins towards the Lakers and Warriors, Minnesota received regardless of its poor 3-point taking pictures. The 5 Timberwolves who take 3s aside from Edwards and Randle — DiVincenzo, Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — shot a collective 38% from distance within the common season however have declined to 32% within the playoffs. Out of 48 gamers who’ve tried no less than 40 3-pointers within the playoffs, Conley ranks forty third, Alexander-Walker ranks forty sixth and DiVincenzo ranks forty eighth in quantified shot making, per GeniusIQ, which measures a participant’s precise shot accuracy in comparison with his anticipated accuracy.
In idea, their luck ought to regress to the norm quickly, that means extra made 3s are on the best way. However that backcourt trio mixed to go simply 6-for-26 from distance in Sport 1 towards the Thunder, who have been content material to wall off the paint and, as Edwards stated, financial institution on Minnesota’s ice-cold shooters staying that means.
For Minnesota to attain sufficient to beat the Thunder and attain the primary Finals in franchise historical past, they need to test three bins:
Randle should preserve enjoying the very best high-stakes basketball of his profession.
The function gamers should begin taking pictures extra like they did within the common season.
Edwards should fulfill his function because the main star on this staff.
The Thunder current a tough matchup for him, nevertheless — and never simply because, with Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, they’re effectively geared up to shadow his each transfer with a number of all-world defenders.
Edwards took a serious step ahead past the arc this season, as he led the league in complete 3-pointers with 320 and made 39.5% of his makes an attempt, up from 35.3% earlier than this yr. However curiously, he struggled to transform his 2-point makes an attempt. Based on GeniusIQ knowledge, combining common season and playoff stats, Edwards’ accuracy ranks within the twenty seventh percentile or worse within the restricted space, the important thing and the midrange.
The Thunder have already got the very best inside protection within the league: They allowed the bottom opposing area purpose share on the rim this season and the fewest factors within the paint. And if Edwards cannot crack that shell, he will not be capable of rating sufficient to threaten them.
Edwards expressed optimism after Sport 1, regardless of scoring solely 18 factors on 5-for-13 taking pictures in a recreation his staff misplaced by 26. “I undoubtedly bought to shoot extra,” he stated. “I solely took 13 f—ing photographs. … Bought to go watch some movie and choose it aside. We’ll determine it out.”
The Timberwolves have an opportunity to take action; it is no fluke that they’d the NBA’s second-best offense for such an extended stretch. However the Thunder have among the best defenses in NBA historical past, and no one’s found out the right way to beat it but.
