Sizing up Dodgers, Mets in rematch of final yr’s NLCS groups

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see an entire lot of one another.

The defending World Sequence champions and the workforce they beat to win the Nationwide League pennant final fall play three video games this weekend at Citi Area and 4 video games at Dodger Stadium beginning June 2. For these of you scoring at residence, that is seven matchups in a span of 14 days.

Each groups enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place of their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they conflict once more come October? And who has the sting — each for now and if/after they cross paths within the playoffs?

ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (primarily based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (primarily based in Los Angeles) reply a number of key questions in regards to the Mets and Dodgers.

What has stood out most to you about every workforce’s sturdy begin to the season?

Castillo: The beginning rotation was recognized because the Mets’ weak spot earlier than the season, particularly after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained accidents throughout spring coaching. That has not been the case to this point. As an alternative, the Mets personal one of the best rotation ERA within the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled just lately, and its innings whole ranks within the backside half of the majors. However the collective efficiency has allowed the Mets to beat sluggish begins from varied place gamers — most notably, Juan Soto.

Gonzalez: The emergence of three younger gamers specifically: Dalton Dashing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Dashing, the workforce’s most promising prospect outdoors of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to chop ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea final offseason, did the identical, then carried out so nicely within the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, in the meantime, went from being unsure if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an on a regular basis participant.

Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: Regardless of how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft place or how typically they commerce prospects for veterans, they at all times appear to have that subsequent wave coming.

Regardless of all of the positives to this point, what’s your largest concern about every workforce?

Castillo: Regression appears inevitable for the Mets’ beginning rotation (except it is going to keep an ERA below 3 all season). Add that to the current bullpen accidents — specifically shedding A.J. Minter for the season — and the protection’s troubles, and run prevention might change into a much bigger situation for the Mets because the season progresses. Defensive lapses had been obvious throughout final weekend’s Subway Sequence towards the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that price runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to attain within the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the nook outfield spots are beneath common. It is a recipe that might name for extra offense.

Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured record — seven within the rotation, seven within the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder accidents with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to steer the majors in innings. That bullpen, in the meantime, is with out 4 important high-leverage choices in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers supervisor Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed choices to carry leads late. Dodgers pitchers proceed to get harm at an alarming charge. And never even this workforce can overcome that charge of damage.

Who’s one x-factor who might make or break every workforce’s season?

Castillo: Soto, by most requirements, will not be having a foul season on the plate. Many gamers would gladly take an OPS over .800. However he signed a $765 million contract to be the most effective hitters within the sport, and he is been removed from a type of. If Soto can unlock his standard kind, and there is nothing in his observe file to recommend he will not, the Mets’ lineup turns into a unique animal. Soto, at his greatest, makes hitters round him higher. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets have not seen that model but. The physique language is not fairly proper and the manufacturing is not there. That’ll want to alter for them to change into respectable pennant contenders in a loaded Nationwide League.

Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been simply as a lot an offensive pressure as he was final yr, when he grew to become the primary full-time designated hitter to gather an MVP Award. However there’s an entire different half ready to be unlocked. Ohtani goes via his pitching development slowly. At this level it does not appear as if he’ll be a part of the rotation till someday in July on the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL restore. The Dodgers backed him off his development forward of the season opener, they are saying, in hopes of not carrying him out and offering him with one of the best probability of being a consider October. If he seems something like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he shall be.

Who has more durable competitors to win their division: The Mets within the NL East or the Dodgers within the NL West?

Castillo: The NL West has extra playoff contenders (4 to 3), however the high quality of competitors within the NL East is healthier. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have one of the best beginning rotation within the majors with an skilled lineup that has been via all of it. And the Atlanta Braves are again on observe, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 begin to the season, with out a lot contribution from their two greatest gamers. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured record this week, has made solely two begins. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t performed in a sport but. All three groups are actual October threats.

Gonzalez: It is the NL West, as a result of that fourth respectable playoff contender might find yourself making an enormous distinction in a decent race. The Mets nonetheless have a mixed 16 video games remaining towards the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can solely beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they will face 10 extra instances. And whereas the Phillies are nice and the Braves are extra harmful than their file signifies, one could make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being simply pretty much as good, if not higher. Of much more relevance is what the Dodgers will face within the ensuing weeks — 26 straight video games towards groups with a successful file, with the final 10 coming towards division rivals.

These groups play seven instances within the subsequent 14 days. Give us your prediction for the sequence and the celebs.

Castillo: That is shaping as much as be a battle between a struggling pitching employees (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go along with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, as a result of the Dodgers have yet one more residence sport. The Dodgers’ large three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will energy them to a season sequence victory.

Gonzalez: Betts obtained off to a sluggish begin offensively, however he just lately unlocked one thing in his swing and has began to spherical again into type of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, however the Mets will win many of the video games for a easy motive: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t pitch, the Dodgers do not actually know what they will get from their beginning pitchers.

Which pitching rotation shall be higher come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded however oft-injured group or the Mets’ at the moment producing however lesser-known starters?

Castillo: It is not even Memorial Day. These rotations might look fully completely different come October. However, for now, I am going to take the Dodgers. They’re certain to have at the least a number of of these star pitchers wholesome for the postseason. If not, one thing went terribly, terribly incorrect.

Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ precedence this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million as a result of they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If these three can be found then, I am taking the Dodgers. However there is no telling if that would be the case.

If these groups earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who’re you taking and why?

Castillo: Assuming well being, the Dodgers as a result of they’re higher in each division.

Gonzalez: The Mets performed the Dodgers powerful final yr, then signed the brand new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them regardless of a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the 2 most coveted beginning pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one sport, with near-identical run differentials. Greater than 4 months of the common season stay. I plead the Fifth.