UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad goes for his first title defense as he faces Jack Della Maddalena in the main event at UFC 315 on Saturday night (8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+, with prelims at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+/Disney+).
Muhammad, ranked No. 10 on ESPN’s pound-for-pound list, has not lost a fight since January 2019. Most recently, he beat Leon Edwards by unanimous decision to claim the welterweight title. Della Maddalena, ESPN’s No. 3-ranked welterweight, is unbeaten inside the Octagon, reeling off seven consecutive wins. Della Maddalena pulled off a comeback third-round TKO over Gilbert Burns in his last fight.
In the co-main event, women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko puts her belt on the line against Manon Fiorot. Shevchenko is No. 2 in the ESPN pound-for-pound women’s rankings. Fiorot, ESPN’s third-ranked flyweight, has won 12 fights in a row, each of the last five by unanimous decision.
Brett Okamoto spoke to retired UFC welterweight Dan Hardy to get his perspective on the main event and Andreas Hale spoke to UFC strawweight Angela Hill to get her breakdown of the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the two title fights and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Dan Hardy, retired UFC welterweight
How Muhammad wins: Muhammad is such a well-rounded fighter. He’s strong but not overpowering to the point he gasses himself out. He’s not super fast, but fast enough to land strikes. He will likely crowd Della Maddalena with his wrestling because he knows Della Maddalena’s hands are so sharp. If I were in his corner, I would have Muhammad working at a slightly longer range for this fight. I would also have him looking to throw a lot of kicks. Della Maddalena is quite sturdy with his stance, so Muhammad can do some damage to his lead leg. He could do something Canelo Alvarez does well — intentionally target his opponent’s arms. Often, you’re feinting to get around the arms, but there’s value in kicking the biceps, triceps and forearms to deaden those muscles
How Della Maddalena wins: Della Maddalena is one of the first names that come to mind when asked, “Who has the best boxing in MMA?” He just has good fundamentals. He moves his feet and recognizes his targets well. He’ll need to find the space to let his hands go, though, without feeling like Muhammad will disappear underneath and shoot for a takedown every time. He’s got real finishing instinct, which is an advantage he has over Muhammad. One of the biggest issues people have when boxing in MMA is getting overexcited and tending to cover too much ground. Della Maddalena doesn’t have that tendency. When people throw with too much power, they tend to rise on their feet. Della Maddalena can’t afford to do that here. He needs to work into the pocket but maintain his fundamentals. If he does that, he presents a lot of problems to the champion.
X factor: Della Maddalena’s punches to the body. If he can weaken Muhammad and slow him down, that will discourage him from shooting takedowns.
Prediction: Muhammad to win by unanimous decision. I’ve been so impressed with him. Della Maddalena is a threat, but there are just a couple bits of his game he’ll need to fix before he beats someone like Muhammad.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Muhammad to win (-185). If you’ve been looking to bet on Muhammad, now is the time. His line has dropped from -220, and at nearly even odds, it’s hard to pass up. The biggest disparity between these two is Muhammad’s cardio and wrestling. Yes, Della Maddalena has great striking and knockout power, but Muhammad just dominated Leon Edwards without a problem, and it’s hard to imagine this fight going differently. Especially considering that Della Maddlena was a flying knee away from losing to Burns in his last fight. I expect Muhammad to go out there and push the pace and use his dominant wrestling to secure his first successful title defense.
Women’s flyweight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
How Shevchenko wins: Shevchenko looked unbeatable in her last fight against Alexa Grasso at UFC 306 last September, and she’s gonna do the same against Fiorot. Shevchenko can throw just about everything on the feet. And to set herself apart, she has added a slick takedown game. We saw her allow Taila Santos to reverse takedown attempts in their 2022 bout, but Shevchenko appears to have shored that up since. Her top pressure was impressive in the last of three consecutive bouts with Grasso. When Grasso threw up her legs, Shevchenko stayed calm and used it to pass Grasso’s guard. Even when she did give up position on bottom, she was already on her way to getting back on top. These skills translate well against Fiorot, who waits to counter until opponents charge forward. Fiorot also doesn’t have an aggressive ground game. It looks defensively sound, but she’s not actively hunting for ways to pass guard. Fiorot tends to lean to the side when pressured, looking for check hook combos, and that could lead to a nasty head kick from the champ. It may take some time for Shevchenko to find her rhythm, but once she gets her momentum going, she should be able to stay a step ahead.
How Fiorot wins: Fiorot is big for the division and good at defensive striking. She keeps her opponents at bay with long combos, check hooks, side kicks and sneaky kicks to the head. She angles off well when she strikes, making it hard for opponents to shoot in takedowns. She doesn’t like pressure, though, especially when opponents aren’t interrupted by her standing attacks. I like when she mixes in the takedowns, and the big slam against Erin Blanchfield at a UFC Fight Night last November showed off her size and power. But Fiorot hasn’t finished an opponent since June 2021, so if she’s down on points it’s hard to see a late-round finish from her. She needs to push the pace all five rounds with her counter-combos and footwork to keep Shevchenko from getting a bead on her.
X factor: Shevchenko is a seasoned veteran. She’s seen it all and had a ton of five-round fights. She ups her game every time, adjusting between rounds and presenting a different version of herself. Fiorot is big, which could cause problems for Shevchenko in the takedown department and in her ability to close the distance between them.
Prediction: Shevchenko to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Fiorot to win (-135). Coming off her trilogy with Grasso, Shevchenko gets a new title-fight opponent in Fiorot, who brings an aggressive striking style. She is physically strong with great takedown defense. Unless Shevchenko can wrestle for five rounds, she will be in for a rough night against the French fighter. Look for Fiorot to fend off early takedown attempts and utilize her body kicks and distance striking to get the win and become the new champ.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Men’s bantamweight: José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Zahabi to win (+170). Following his controversial loss to Mario Bautista, Aldo looks to bounce back against Zahabi. For Zahabi, a win over Aldo would be the biggest of his career, catapulting him up the line in a deep division. I like Zahabi here at underdog odds. Aldo has become a low-volume striker, and he can be controlled and held against the cage for long periods. I don’t expect this to be an exciting fight, but I think Zahabi will have a solid game plan and will follow the blueprint that others have provided to beat Aldo.
Women’s flyweight: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
Silva to win by decision. Silva gets the former champ in what she hopes to be her key to a title shot, with a win. Silva is extremely dangerous everywhere the fight goes, and she should have a speed advantage on the feet, which will pose problems for Grasso. I don’t see either fighter getting finished in this fight, but I expect Silva to lead the dance and get the win by decision.
