I wish to see Connor McDavid increase the Stanley Cup.
I wish to see all that regular-season {hardware} — 5 scoring titles, three Hart trophies as league MVP, the four-time NHLPA most excellent participant — metaphorically traded for a Stanley Cup ring, like whenever you flip in smaller prizes for a bigger one throughout a carnival sport. I need him rewarded for his 10 years of making an attempt to will the Edmonton Oilers to their first Stanley Cup since 1990. These followers deserve one other get together, with McDavid because the grasp of ceremonies.
I wish to see him completely overwrite these pictures of himself as an empty husk after Recreation 7 final season, his soul seemingly drained from his physique by a sequence so emotionally erratic that he was voted the playoffs’ most dear participant moments after dropping within the championship finale.
I wish to see the laziest counterargument to McDavid’s standing as a hockey deity — that he “by no means received the Cup” — rendered immaterial, as it will definitely was for gamers akin to Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I need that cathartic scream when he picks up the chalice for the primary time. The king deserves his crowning second.
Sadly, what I need and what the Florida Panthers are prepared to provide McDavid aren’t in any respect aligned. They disadvantaged him of his Stanley Cup win final season. They’ve going to do it once more on this Stanley Cup Last rematch, regardless of the sportsbooks and the vast majority of pundits believing that it is McDavid’s second.
Listed below are 5 causes the Panthers are probably headed for a repeat:
Florida is healthier than final season’s Cup winner
It is simple that the Oilers are a greater staff than they have been final season.
Edmonton’s roster is deeper and extra cohesive than the 2024 Western Convention champions. They’re scoring extra (4.06 targets per sport) than final season. Their 5-on-5 protection is remarkably higher: 1.89 targets per 60 minutes, down from 2.55 final postseason.
Maybe essentially the most spectacular a part of the Oilers’ defensive sport has been the flexibility to shut out video games — witness their shot suppression within the final three wins over the Dallas Stars. They have been a minus-6 within the third interval final postseason; they are a plus-11 this season via 16 video games. The one downgrade year-over-year is their penalty kill, which has given up 16 targets in 16 video games whereas it gave up 4 in 25 video games final season. One assumes the return of Mattias Ekholm will assist.
However the Panthers are additionally higher.
Like, quite a bit higher. Which is frightening.
Florida is a plus-27 in objective differential via 17 video games, after ending at a plus-11 final season. The Panthers are scoring extra (3.88) and giving up much less (2.29). At 5-on-5, they’ve gone from 2.39 targets per 60 minutes final season to three.53 targets per 60 this season. Their energy play is up 12 months over 12 months — one thing to remember if the Oilers hold struggling on the PK — and the penalty kill is about the identical.
Additionally they upgraded in a number of roster spots in the course of the season, primarily with the additions of Seth Jones to their second protection pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.
Final season, Florida paired Niko Mikkola with Brandon Montour, an excellent puck-moving defenseman who parlayed his success with Florida right into a free agent take care of the Seattle Kraken. The Panthers registered 49% of the shot makes an attempt and averaged 1.84 targets for and a couple of.03 targets in opposition to per 60 minutes when that pair was on the ice. Mikkola’s pairing with Jones is a marked improve: 56% of the shot makes an attempt, 4.14 targets for and 1.69 targets in opposition to per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo has an anticipated targets in opposition to of 1.48 per 60 minutes — Montour and Mikkola have been at 2.37 final postseason.
That is not simply the addition of Jones to the Panthers’ high 4. Mikkola has leveled up into one thing particular, defending higher and flashing a shocking quantity of offensive pace for a 6-foot-6 defender nicknamed “The Condor.”
“Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he is all over the place,” Marchand mentioned. “I do not assume he will get sufficient credit score. He is extraordinarily powerful to play in opposition to. Then whenever you play with him, and also you notice that he isn’t flashy, however he closes so fast, he is all the time on high of men and he is bodily.”
The addition of Marchand has additionally made the Panthers a extra harmful staff than final season — and never solely by way of what’s mentioned on the ice throughout video games. The third line of their Cup-winning staff was anchored by heart Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen, a stable duo that skated with quite a lot of wingers. Placing Marchand with these two after buying him on the commerce deadline from Boston improved the staff in a number of methods.
Marchand, Lundell and Luostarinen have earned 53% of the shot makes an attempt at 5-on-5. They common 4.2 targets and 0.82 targets in opposition to per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 factors in 17 video games. Luostarinen has 13 factors in 17 video games. Lundell has 5 targets and 7 assists, and continues to provide this staff preposterous heart depth as form of a “Child Barkov” for the Panthers.
By solidifying that line with Marchand, it permits the Panthers to maintain their high six solidified. One duo is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The opposite duo is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They shuttle Carter Verhaeghe, one of many playoffs’ most clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics darling, between these strains on the wing. Each combos have yielded outcomes for Florida.
However past what’s occurring on the ice — or maybe as a catalyst for it — the Panthers are enjoying with the poise and confidence of a champion, fortified by a proof of idea that comes solely after a Stanley Cup skate.
Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
These two goalies have had related postseason journeys: Inconsistent and middling outcomes early within the playoffs, adopted by dominant runs that started in the midst of the second spherical and carried via to the Stanley Cup Last.
“Middling” might be placing it kindly for Skinner’s playoffs, the place he was benched within the first spherical and obtained again into the playoffs solely when Calvin Pickard was injured in opposition to the Vegas Golden Knights. However from Recreation 4 in opposition to Vegas to the Cup Last, he is been scorching sizzling: 6-1, .944 save proportion, 1.41 goals-against common and three shutouts.
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Stuart Skinner makes an unbelievable diving save
Stuart Skinner makes a lovely stick save to maintain the sport tied 2-2 for the Oilers vs. the Golden Knights.
Bobrovsky wasn’t all that nice early both till a Recreation 4 shutout in opposition to the Maple Leafs. After that, he went 7-2 with a .944 save proportion, a 1.34 goals-against common and two shutouts.
The Florida netminder had a chaotic Stanley Cup Last final season, however ended it with a 23-save effort at residence in Recreation 7 to clinch the Cup. It was the sort of sport that bolstered the “Playoff Bob” legend that the Oilers will little question hear about once more this season.
Averaged out, Skinner and Bobrovsky have been each at substitute ranges for the totality of the playoffs based on Stathletes. Over their previous 5 video games, Bobrovsky (2.35 targets saved above anticipated) has been higher analytically than Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is enjoying effectively sufficient the place he should not lose this sequence for Edmonton, which is de facto all they’ll ask from him and Pickard. However Bobrovsky, assuming he is in “Playoff Bob” mode, can win this sequence for Florida. That is the distinction.
The Panthers are street warriors
Essentially the most vital change year-over-year between these groups is that the Oilers have home-ice benefit this time. Sadly, which may play into the Panthers’ palms.
Florida is 8-2 on the street, which is tied for the sixth-best successful proportion in NHL postseason historical past (minimal eight street video games). Their 4.80 targets per sport would make them the highest-scoring street playoff staff in Stanley Cup historical past (once more, minimal eight street video games). That plus-27 objective differential within the postseason? It has all come on the street, the place they’ve scored 48 occasions and given up 21 targets. They’re even (18 for and 18 in opposition to) at residence.
“It is us in opposition to the world. That sort of feeling,” defenseman Gustav Forsling mentioned.
There are two clear causes for the Panthers’ street dominance. The primary is that Florida is at its very best when it trims the flourish out of its offensive sport to develop into a blunt instrument.
“Our mindset is simply play so simple as we are able to,” Verhaeghe mentioned. “Get the puck deep, get on their protection and forecheck, which is our energy.”
The opposite purpose: The Panthers completely like to suck the power out of a street area and ship the opposing followers residence feeling depressing.
“It is enjoyable whenever you’re on the street and it goes quiet. It looks like we’re doing our job,” Verhaeghe mentioned.
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Fortenbaugh’s finest wager for Panthers-Oilers Stanley Cup rematch
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he is taking the Panthers to repeat as champions in opposition to the Oilers.
Aleksander Barkov
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can exert their will on a interval, a sport and a sequence. McDavid is coming off a sequence in opposition to Dallas by which he had 9 factors in 5 video games, for instance.
Florida has a kind of guys, too. Barkov does not get talked about with the identical breathless reward because the Oilers’ duo or Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon or Sidney Crosby. He has damaged 90 factors solely as soon as in his profession, though his points-per-game charge between 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him twelfth amongst all skaters, proper between Crosby and Cale Makar. He is not essentially the most vocal man, nor does he have essentially the most boisterous persona — Panthers coach Paul Maurice joked that Barkov is “not doing a podcast when he is accomplished [playing].”
All of these gamers talked about are Hart Trophy guys. Barkov is a Selke Trophy man, having been named because the NHL’s finest defensive ahead for the third time in his profession this week. You possibly can’t be each. Since the most effective defensive ahead award was first handed out in 1977-78, solely two gamers have ever received a Hart and a Selke sooner or later of their careers: Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke. As of this season, the best Barkov ever positioned for MVP was sixth in 2020-21.
However he is simply as a lot of a sport changer and sequence shifter as every other famous person, solely his potential to take action generally begins within the defensive zone. Towards Edmonton final postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice throughout these seven video games, incomes the vast majority of the shot makes an attempt and scoring possibilities.
He can create one thing out of nothing together with his puck management and huge body.
Witness the sequence clincher in opposition to Carolina:
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Verhaeghe places Panthers again in entrance
Carter Verhaeghe fires residence a big-time objective to provide the Panthers a lead late within the third interval.
Rodrigues mentioned that objective “speaks to who [Barkov] is as an individual” after Recreation 5.
“He is so even-keeled,” Rodrigues mentioned. “Does not get too excessive, does not get too low, and simply when video games get intense and really emotional, he is capable of play his sport and simply do the correct issues time and again.”
Which brings us to maybe essentially the most salient level on this prediction.
They will take what Edmonton provides them
This may be hyperbolic however that is by no means stopped me earlier than: I feel the Panthers are mainly constructed to be an Oilers countermeasure.
They’ll rating with the Oilers. They’ll defend nearly as good as any staff within the NHL. They’ve impactful star gamers and efficient function gamers. They’re unfazed by chaotic street environments. They’re well-coached. They play with a physicality, swagger and antagonism. They’ll dish it out and take it after which dish it out once more.
However in addition they have that particular trait shared with different nice NHL champions, which is that they are prepared to win on their phrases or on no matter phrases the opponents will set for them.
Take into consideration the Western Convention finals. Take into consideration how the Dallas Stars felt like they’d toppled into an abyss when the Oilers would rating the primary objective. Take into consideration how they might ship solely 4 photographs on Skinner within the third interval of must-win video games, pissed off to no finish that they could not play their sport.
The Panthers do not get flustered. They do not lose their confidence or have their hope extinguished if issues aren’t to their liking. They maximize the alternatives they earn. They’re meticulous and affected person the place others are harried and panicked.
Carolina was a stingy defensive staff. The Panthers waited for his or her possibilities to pounce, and once they did, the video games modified dramatically. In every of their wins over the Hurricanes within the Japanese Convention finals, the Panthers scored a number of targets inside 4 minutes of one another. Florida is essentially the most “blood within the water” staff within the NHL. In Recreation 3, it was 5 targets in 9:08. In Recreation 5, it was three targets in 4:36.
“We go into the sport, we all know precisely what we have to do,” Barkov mentioned. “The arrogance stage is excessive and everybody’s having enjoyable proper now.”
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Panthers maintain Hurricanes in 5 to advance to Stanley Cup Last
The Florida Panthers win 5-3 in a back-and-forth Recreation 5 battle vs. the Hurricanes to advance to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Last.
Prediction: Panthers in six
GM Invoice Zito and his employees have constructed a Stanley Cup champion whose core gamers have the postseason competence and drive that different groups desperately attempt to import into their lineups on the deadline each season. The Panthers do not want an infusion of “rings within the room.” They virtually all have them now. Playoff self-assurance is a nucleotide of their hockey DNA.
Their “win in any respect prices” fashion has earned them detractors, however it has additionally earned them three consecutive journeys to the Stanley Cup Last.
Based mostly on the Panthers’ current play and their benefits on this matchup, it’s going to additionally earn them a second straight skate with Stanley.
And if I am unsuitable, then Connor McDavid has his championship second. Which might be superior, too.
