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The author is director of Chatham Home’s Center East and North Africa Programme
Three males — Iran’s supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — stand on the centre of the unfolding battle between Israel and Iran. Every has wielded ideological conviction, private model and strategic intuition to form their management trajectories. Now, their egos and world views are colliding, with penalties for the broader Center East. In battle, it’s not simply insurance policies that matter — personalities do too. Certainly, the ambitions of leaders usually steer historical past greater than armies or establishments.
Khamenei, now 86, has spent greater than three a long time on the helm of the Islamic republic. Whereas usually forged as a cautious cleric who rose by default after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s loss of life in 1989, he has demonstrated shrewd adaptability and a constant strategic imaginative and prescient. His management is marked by deep suspicion of the west and an unwavering perception within the Islamic republic’s mission because the vanguard of resistance in opposition to western imperialism and Israeli aggression on the expense of the Iranian folks.
Below Khamenei, the Islamic republic has remodeled from an inward-looking theocracy to an bold actor that has projected regional energy by means of its destabilising community of militias in Iraq and Syria and proxy networks in Lebanon and Yemen.
Khamenei’s character — calculating and ideologically inflexible — has been each an asset and legal responsibility. It allowed the regime to endure threats on Iran’s borders through the 2001 and 2003 US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. His intuition, honed by years of survival in a risky area, has been to keep away from full-scale escalation and play for time. Whereas he did help negotiations previous to the 2015 nuclear deal, he remained perpetually suspicious of US intentions — all the time fearing Washington’s broader aim was regime change.
This mistrust sabotaged Iran’s small window of alternative after the 2015 nuclear deal. Slightly than empower moderates equivalent to then president Hassan Rouhani, Khamenei maintained a hostile posture. This included ramping up nuclear enrichment, backing strikes in opposition to Saudi oil services and bolstering allied militias like Hamas, Hizbollah and the Houthis, all whereas growing rounds of brutal repression at dwelling.
In current months, Khamenei has supported negotiations with the Trump administration within the hope of rescuing Iran’s economic system from worldwide sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. He hoped to rehabilitate his flailing legitimacy by planning for succession. However Israel’s strikes mark a rupture.
Now, he faces the best problem of his tenure: a battle that threatens his regime’s fastidiously fortified foundations. If this additional destabilises the regime or if Khamenei is seen as capitulating, it may mark the top of Iran’s theocratic mannequin.
In the meantime Netanyahu, probably the most polarising determine in Israeli politics, has made it clear that such regime capitulation, if not regime change, is a key goal. He has constructed his profession on charisma, polarising rhetoric, an uncanny skill to outmanoeuvre rivals and a studying of historical past that depicts Jews as perpetually underneath siege. This worldview defines his response to each diplomacy and battle. His opposition to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, stance on Iran’s broader menace to Israel’s safety and eventual help for the Abraham Accords are pushed extra by private conviction than Israeli standard opinion.
Within the wake of Hamas’s brutal October 7 assaults and the devastating battle in Gaza, Netanyahu has been accused of permitting home divisions to distract from safety threats and has confronted worldwide isolation. However his intuition remained to challenge power, keep away from compromise and outlast his enemies. Now he’s broadly seen as the person who took the combat on to Tehran.
Lastly, there may be Trump, whose presence looms massive over this disaster. Impulsive and transactional, it was his 2018 resolution to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal — after direct lobbying from Israel and Gulf leaders — and start a most strain marketing campaign that compelled Tehran right into a nook.
Trump’s overseas coverage has lacked consistency however not influence. His rapport with Netanyahu helped catalyse the 2020 Abraham Accords, a imaginative and prescient for Israel’s integration into a brand new Center East. But his strategy additionally hollowed out US credibility, leaving allies nervous about America’s reliability and rivals like Khamenei unable to navigate his unpredictability. Slightly than exhibiting constant management, Trump has left the world guessing about US navy motion in Iran. “I’ll do it. I’ll not do it,” he stated, promising a choice within the subsequent two weeks, additional perpetuating anxiousness.
This battle is greater than a navy confrontation; it’s a conflict of ageing leaders now eager to safe their legacies. Khamenei, Netanyahu and Trump have paved the highway to battle with a long time of miscalculation and brinkmanship. A lot will now hinge on whether or not Netanyahu believes his legacy requires whole victory, whether or not Khamenei concludes that survival calls for escalation or compromise, and whether or not Trump accelerates a regional reckoning.
Their instincts over the approaching days won’t solely decide the result of this battle, however probably the way forward for the Islamic republic, the credibility of US energy and the soundness of an already fractured Center East.
The Israel-Iran battle: how far will it go? Be a part of an FT subscriber webinar with Sanam Vakil and FT specialists on Wednesday June 25 at 1300-1400 BST (1200-1300 GMT) and put your inquiries to our panel
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