Tiers for all 30 NBA groups: Actual contenders to play-in dreamers

A month into the NBA season, dividing strains are starting to take form in each conferences. Though there may be nonetheless a stunning chief within the East (the Detroit Pistons, who appear to be they’ve the defensive chops to remain within the combine), the remainder of the highest 5 groups in web score at the moment are the contenders we anticipated.

In the meantime, a backside tier has separated itself, with followers and executives alike dreaming of snagging a prime prospect in what appears like a powerful 2026 NBA draft.

In between is the place the true curiosity lies as groups jockey for home-court benefit within the playoffs and to make — or keep away from — the play-in event. All season lengthy, ESPN’s Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton can be sorting the NBA’s 30 groups into tiers primarily based on their outlook for fulfillment on the finish of the common season and past.

Bounce to a tier:
The Favourite to Repeat
Legit Title Contenders
Convention Finals Occasion Crashers
Potential Contenders Caught in Impartial
The Muddled Center
Play-in Dreamers
Barren for Darryn

Tier 1: The Favourite to Repeat

Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (13-1)

Jalen Williams hasn’t performed this season, whereas Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have missed at the very least 4 video games apiece. The Thunder have been chilly from deep, making simply 34% of their 3-point makes an attempt to rank twenty first within the league.

And but, the 2024-25 champs are nonetheless on tempo for a 76-6 document as they mount a title protection, with a league-best plus-15.4 level differential that is even higher than their record-setting mark final season. Oklahoma Metropolis has the NBA’s greatest protection by a whopping 6.6 factors per 100 possessions; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is basically replicating final season’s stat line, which gained him an MVP award; and Holmgren seems to be making an offensive leap, averaging a career-best 19.3 factors per sport on super effectivity.

Nearly the one knock towards Oklahoma Metropolis is that the Thunder have benefited from the NBA’s second-easiest schedule up to now, which has helped inflate their historic level differential. However there is not any doubt that the Thunder are in a category of their very own. — Kram

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Tier 2: Legit Title Contenders

Denver Nuggets (10-2)
Houston Rockets (9-3)
New York Knicks (8-4)
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-5)

Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey is liable for the NBA’s “5% rule,” which argues that groups that exceed 5% chance of a championship ought to focus fully on successful one. These are the opposite 4 groups that clear that bar utilizing BPI — a gaggle that hasn’t actually modified for the reason that begin of the season.

The Rockets are the closest factor to a shock, having shrugged off the lack of Fred VanVleet with the NBA’s third-best level differential up to now. Houston’s offense most likely will not stick with it, however 2024 lottery decide Reed Sheppard is quietly serving to fill the void left by VanVleet’s harm, and the Rockets will add to their depth when Dorian Finney-Smith returns from offseason surgical procedure.

November hasn’t gone as easily as final 12 months for the Cavaliers. As long as Darius Garland can get wholesome, Cleveland nonetheless stands with New York because the more than likely East winners, given observe document and full-strength potential.

The Nuggets, who took Oklahoma Metropolis to seven video games within the convention semifinals final postseason, appear to be the most important menace to the Thunder this season. Denver might delay a possible rematch by claiming the No. 2 seed due to a stronger begin and higher depth. The Nuggets must be inspired that they are second in level differential regardless of newcomer Cam Johnson struggling via a capturing droop. — Pelton

Tier 3: Convention Finals Occasion Crashers

Los Angeles Lakers (10-4)
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5)
San Antonio Spurs (9-4)
Detroit Pistons (11-2)
Atlanta Hawks (9-5)

The subsequent tier of contenders contains 5 groups which are all very robust on one facet of the ball and solely middling on the opposite. Based on Cleansing the Glass, which strips out rubbish time, the Timberwolves rank fifth in offensive score whereas the Lakers rank fourth in efficient discipline objective proportion, regardless that LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have performed simply 21 out of a doable 42 video games. And the Pistons, Spurs and Hawks rank third, sixth and seventh in defensive score, respectively.

These groups have vital questions they need to handle in the event that they wish to upset a higher-ranked opponent within the playoffs, nonetheless. Can Reaves maintain his leap when James returns, and may a lineup with Doncic, Reaves and James defend sufficient to win a number of playoff rounds? Lakers opponents have the fourth-best shot high quality within the NBA, in keeping with GeniusIQ, with solely the lowly Kings, Nets and Pelicans faring worse.

For Minnesota, the questions circle the still-uneasy level guard spot and the state of the protection, which was the very best within the league in 2023-24 however has fallen to the center of the pack this season. Seven of the Timberwolves’ eight wins, furthermore, have come towards the worst groups within the league — Utah (twice), Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte and Indiana — so the Timberwolves’ scorching streak could be the product of the schedule greater than their true expertise. (The eighth win got here towards Portland on opening night time.)

The Spurs and Pistons have overarching similarities as two younger contenders led by latest No. 1 picks. They face comparable questions on whether or not offenses with out a lot capturing can succeed within the present NBA. The Spurs have extra high-end expertise, as Victor Wembanyama is an MVP candidate and De’Aaron Fox has solely simply returned from an offseason hamstring harm. However the Pistons profit from an Japanese Convention that is a lot weaker on the prime than the West, and they need to have the ability to land a excessive seed due to their scorching 11-2 begin.

Lastly, the Hawks have gone 8-2 since Trae Younger sprained his knee final month, however their present profile — seventh on protection, nineteenth on offense — is a mirror picture of what they’ve grown accustomed to with their star level guard. Can they preserve their present defensive power after Younger returns, whereas bettering to above-average on the offensive finish? — Kram

Tier 4: Potential Contenders Caught in Impartial

Golden State Warriors (9-6)
LA Clippers (4-9)
Orlando Magic (7-7)

We might as nicely name this the “mea culpa” tier. These groups had been projected for greater than 49 wins by my stats-based mannequin, and none of them are monitoring that manner up to now.

Essentially the most regarding begin belongs to the Clippers, who’ve proven their age in going 4-9. Bradley Beal is out for the 12 months following a hip fracture that required surgical procedure, 40-year-old Chris Paul has fallen out of the rotation and Kawhi Leonard has already handled an ankle harm. Clippers opponents will not sustain 38.7% 3-point capturing, however at this level, they should profit from regression simply to make the play-in.

The Magic and Warriors stand a greater likelihood of working their manner again into the highest six of their respective conferences, although they absolutely hoped to safe home-court benefit within the first spherical. Orlando, too, has been on the mistaken facet of opponent capturing luck, whereas Golden State has already gained three consecutive video games after dropping to .500 final week. — Pelton

Tier 5: The Muddled Center

Portland Path Blazers (6-7)
Miami Warmth (7-6)
Milwaukee Bucks (8-6)
Philadelphia 76ers (7-5)
Toronto Raptors (8-5)
Boston Celtics (7-7)
Chicago Bulls (6-6)

Because the lone Western Convention staff on this middling tier, Portland does not have the top-end expertise to match the West groups in greater tiers, however the backside of the convention is shaky sufficient that the operating, urgent Path Blazers ought to make the play-in event with ease. They’re the one staff this season to beat Oklahoma Metropolis, plus they’re the one staff to beat Denver in regulation.

A lot of the muddle comes within the East. With so little separation between these groups — together with Orlando and Atlanta — there’s an enormous vary in potential outcomes; virtually all of them might both land home-court benefit within the first spherical of the playoffs or miss the play-in fully. They’ve already demonstrated how streaky and inconsistent they are often: Toronto began 1-4 however has climbed to 8-5, whereas Chicago began 5-0 however has fallen to 6-6.

Milwaukee, in the meantime, could be the staff on this tier more than likely to outperform in a playoff setting, as Giannis Antetokounmpo will enter each collection as the very best participant till probably the Finals. But at the same time as position gamers like Ryan Rollins and AJ Inexperienced have stepped up, the Bucks’ supporting solid nonetheless appears missing, and and the staff’s detrimental level differential suggests they are much nearer to common than true competition. — Kram

Tier 6: Play-in Dreamers

Memphis Grizzlies (4-10)
New Orleans Pelicans (2-11)
Sacramento Kings (3-11)
Phoenix Suns (8-6)
Dallas Mavericks (4-10)
Charlotte Hornets (4-9)

It says one thing concerning the muddled center within the East (and loads concerning the steep divide after the convention’s prime 12) that 5 of the six groups on this tier are out West. In fact, the Pelicans needed to slot someplace, and it is arduous to place a staff with out its personal draft decide within the final tier regardless that New Orleans’ efficiency up to now has merited that spot.

The Hornets have been extra aggressive than their 4-9 document would point out, with a minus-3.3 level differential that may rank tenth within the West. Barring accidents above them, nonetheless, Charlotte will more than likely head immediately again to the lottery.

That leaves 4 West groups, at the very least certainly one of which can make the postseason by default. The Mavericks and Grizzlies had greater aspirations getting into the 12 months, which have been torpedoed by sluggish begins amid issues brought on by just lately fired GM Nico Harrison in Dallas and star level guard Ja Morant’s unhappiness in Memphis. Each are contenders to go the opposite course and embrace a run at a excessive lottery decide. That is a more durable promote in Sacramento, the place the thrill of the “Beam Workforce” returning to the playoffs in 2022-23 is turning into an more and more distant reminiscence.

The most effective vibes on this tier, surprisingly, belong to the Suns. With Devin Booker taking part in at an All-NBA stage and Collin Gillespie filling in nicely for the injured Jalen Inexperienced, Phoenix is making an early case for match over the expertise misplaced when Durant was traded and Bradley Beal purchased out final summer season. — Pelton

Tier 7: Barren for Darryn

Utah Jazz (5-8)
Washington Wizards (1-12)
Brooklyn Nets (2-11)
Indiana Pacers (1-12)

Because the lottery demonstrated final season, when the 2 worst groups within the league — Utah and Washington — landed solely the No. 5 and 6 picks, there is not any longer a assure {that a} horrible document will result in a franchise-altering celebrity within the draft. However prematurely of a loaded 2026 draft that includes potential superstars Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer, this quartet of groups is doing its greatest to extend the chances of successful a prime decide.

That was the plan all alongside for Utah, Washington and Brooklyn, whereas Indiana has joined the look-ahead-to-the-lottery get together after a succession of disastrous accidents buried the Pacers within the standings. The Jazz, Wizards and Nets are all aiming to land the cornerstone who can pave the way in which again to competition after a protracted rebuild, whereas the Pacers now have the possibility to nab a younger co-star for Tyrese Haliburton as soon as the All-NBA guard returns from a torn Achilles.

Whereas Utah has 5 wins — greater than the remainder of the groups on this tier mixed — and is presently in competition for the West’s final play-in spot, the Jazz owe a top-eight-protected decide to Oklahoma Metropolis this season. So the Jazz could have each incentive to lose sufficient video games the remainder of the way in which to make sure that decide stays in Utah. — Kram