The primary of two consecutive weeks of UFC welterweight most important occasions takes place Saturday, as Randy Brown and Gabriel Bonfim headline UFC Combat Night time on the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. ET). A welterweight title struggle tops subsequent week’s UFC 322 struggle card.
Brown is making his second Octagon look of the 12 months after he picked up a second-round knockout over Nicolas Dalby in April. Bonfim enters the competition on a three-fight successful streak, most not too long ago beating former welterweight title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson by break up resolution in July. Coincidentally, Bonfim’s final loss was a second-round TKO towards Dalby in November 2023. Neither Brown nor Bonfim is ranked in ESPN’s MMA divisional rankings.
ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas gives his most important occasion prediction, and ESPN betting professional Ian Parker provides perception on the worth bets out there on the cardboard.
Welterweight most important occasion
Prediction: Brown to win by knockout.
Brown’s solely path to win is by knockout, however excellent news for him, he is obtained likelihood to do this. He is obtained the attain benefit plus some newfound confidence that wasn’t there earlier in his profession, permitting him to plant his ft, keep within the pocket and throw punches from a variety that Bonfim will wrestle with. Bonfim wants to shut the space to have an opportunity, however he’ll danger getting knocked out to do this. — Din Thomas
Betting evaluation
Odds present as of publish time. For extra, see ESPN BET
Parker: Brown to win (+150). I do not perceive how Brown is an underdog on this matchup. Not solely has he fought higher-level competitors, however he has extra methods to win and has higher cardio if the struggle goes into the later rounds.
Brown has to maintain the struggle standing, the place he can have a hanging benefit and a attain benefit. So long as he can keep away from getting taken down within the first spherical, he ought to be capable of get the upset over Bonfim.
Parker’s finest bets on the remainder of the cardboard
Welterweight: Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
Salikhov to win (+140). I do not imagine Medic needs to be favored on this matchup. Medic has been dropped typically, and now he is preventing a deadly striker with a excessive struggle IQ. Give me Salikhov at plus cash to get the upset win.
Males’s bantamweight: Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos
Simon to win (-175). I like the percentages on Simon right here. Barcelos would not current any hazard to Simon on this struggle, exterior of a flash knockout. Barcelos is a gifted and hard fighter, however Simon is a horrible matchup for him. So long as Simon can keep away from the early calf kicks from Barcelos, he ought to get the win.
Males’s bantamweight: Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Marcos to win (-195). Johns is at all times a tricky out, but when he cannot get his wrestling going, he will likely be outpointed by Marcos on the ft. Marcos has nice sturdiness and takedown protection, which ought to assist him fend off wrestling and energy strikes from Johns. I count on the struggle to go the space, with Marcos using his hanging benefit to earn a win.