Week 10 betting: Ravens proceed ascent, plus extra sport bets and participant props galore

Worth is worth, regardless of the place — or how — you discover it. And that is what we’ll intention to do every week on this house — discover worth.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen carry totally different views into how they strategy sports activities betting. Solak leans on his experience in participant analysis and the X’s and O’s to search out edges, whereas Walder depends on statistical fashions to select plus-expected worth bets. Bowen, a former NFL security, predicts optimistic matchups and sport winners from tape research and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks is not going to be restricted to a sure guess sort. From spreads and cash strains to totals and even defensive participant props, a very good value is likely to be discovered wherever.

Outcomes can be tracked all through the season, with flat one-unit wagers for every listed guess.

With that, let’s dive in to Week 10. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Word: Defensive prop bets can be added as they grow to be obtainable.

Soar to:
Recreation bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Recreation bets

San Francisco 49ers to cowl +4.5 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Bowen: I am going to take the 49ers and the factors at house. Again in Week 5, coach Kyle Shanahan had passing sport solutions for the Rams’ protection, as Mac Jones threw for 342 yards. Whether or not we see Jones once more or the return of Brock Purdy (toe), I am assured in Shanahan’s skill to scheme up the Rams’ split-safety coverages. And that L.A. protection will see an upgraded San Francisco run sport this time round with tight finish George Kittle on the sphere.

Baltimore Ravens to cowl -4.5 (-105) at Vikings

Solak: We’re not getting the very best of this line, because it moved throughout -4 over the course of this week. As long as we will get it earlier than -5, I believe there’s nonetheless worth.

I wrote final week that we would not have for much longer to fade J.J. McCarthy. In fact, he and the Vikings gained as a 9-point underdog in Detroit. Nothing about McCarthy’s efficiency in that sport, nonetheless, has me altering my sentiment. Minnesota had 5 scoring drives, three of which started on the Lions’ 35-yard line or nearer. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the protection had a wind-back-the-clock sport, as Jared Goff took 5 sacks and averaged a hit charge of solely 20% when pressured.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a a lot, a lot totally different problem to stress with the blitz. Because the begin of final season, Jackson is first in EPA per dropback and success charge in opposition to the blitz — each by comfy margins. Whereas quarterbacks akin to Goff shred the blitz with fast releases and good post-snap reads, Jackson has the athleticism to create large performs even when the protection manufactures free rushers. And if the Vikings elect to play drop protection and spy Jackson, as earlier defenses have executed with success, count on Baltimore to lean again in to that working sport. No protection has confronted extra carries or given up extra yards to offenses working the ball out of multi-tight-end units than the Vikings.

Nonetheless, at its core, this can be a guess fading McCarthy and a Vikings offense that may stay a high-sack, high-interception unit till McCarthy is ready to settle his sport down. I will even be on -7.5 at +175 and -10.5 at +260.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears complete factors OVER 46.5 (-110)

Solak: It is value protecting an in depth eye on the forecast on this sport. With temperatures within the 30s and an opportunity of precipitation, we would see our first flakes of the NFL season over Soldier Discipline on Sunday afternoon. However the probability is at present low sufficient and anticipated snowfall mild sufficient that, if certainly there’s snow, I am prepared to purchase the quantity now.

The Giants lug the league’s worst run protection — thirty second in EPA per rush, thirtieth in success charge — into Chicago. We have seen Chicago just lately dominate some poor run defenses (Cincinnati, Washington, Dallas) with excessive level totals. They will rating quick on the bottom, too, due to how explosive their working sport (and subsequent play-action passing sport) is.

The Giants have been productive in rubbish time, as they extremely worth getting Jaxson Dart reps and confidence. In the event that they’re in a trailing script, as we count on, they’re going to additionally get the good thing about going through the league’s Thirty first-ranked move protection by success charge.

Ready on extra climate info is a fantastic strategy right here, however remember that 47 is a vital quantity in totals, so getting the hook on 46.5 is nicely well worth the threat of a poor meteorological break.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cowl -2.5 (-115) vs. New England Patriots

Bowen: This sport is an actual check for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Below coach Todd Bowles, this Bucs protection will disguise, change the image and convey stress from each the second and third ranges. Tampa Bay owns a blitz charge of 31.9% (sixth highest within the league), so count on Bowles to warmth up Drake Maye on this one. With that protection, plus Baker Mayfield’s skill to make performs in essential moments, I just like the Bucs to cowl at house.

Buccaneers crew complete OVER 24.5 (-115) vs. Patriots

Solak: I have been bullish on the Patriots and stay bullish on them for the remainder of the season. However one of many causes for Patriots pleasure was the weak spot of their schedule. This specific week, they do not get that crutch.

The Patriots have performed 9 distinctive opponents by their 7-2 begin. Just one opponent (the Payments) has an above-average EPA per dropback or dropback success charge on the season. The Patriots have performed the 5 worst offenses by factors per drive (Titans, Browns, Saints, Raiders and Falcons) this season.

As such, their protection is probably going overrated out there. Whereas the Buccaneers haven’t been the constant flamethrower they had been on offense final season, they’re nonetheless twelfth in EPA per dropback and count on to get proper sort out Luke Goedeke again for this sport. Tampa Bay can also be coming off a bye, and, having endured a continuing trickle of accidents week over week, will profit from an extra week’s value of relaxation. The sport plan must be sharper, and the nagging accidents must be much less problematic.

I believe each the full-game complete and Buccaneers’ crew complete are good bets, however I lean Buccaneers right here for the potential of a brutal Maye turnover that may have an effect on the Patriots scoreboard negatively and the Bucs positively.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans complete factors UNDER 37.5 (-115)

Solak: The Texans underneath was a winner for us final week, and we’re again to the nicely with Davis Mills on the helm in lieu of C.J. Stroud (concussion). Different large harm information for this one, as receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) did not follow Wednesday, nor did guard Ezra Cleveland and tight finish Hunter Lengthy. If Dyami Brown (concussion) would not clear the protocol by Sunday, the Jaguars offense could possibly be with out their high two tight ends and high three receivers (Travis Hunter on IR with a knee).

Jakobi Meyers, acquired through commerce on Tuesday, will assist ultimately — however the Week 1 influence must be minimal.

On the Houston facet, no Stroud probably spells a recommitment to the working sport, which can velocity up this sport. That dashing assault will probably endure as nicely, with absences at proper guard (Ed Ingram) and proper sort out (Tytus Howard), together with the unsure standing of working again Nick Chubb (foot). The Jaguars’ protection gave up a regarding efficiency to the Raiders’ passing assault within the second half, however that was with out linebacker Devin Lloyd (anticipated again this week) and EDGE Travon Walker (ejected for throwing a punch). Additionally of harm word: Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is confirmed out due to a quad harm, which means even three-point drives are much less computerized in Houston, as free agent Matthew Wright steps as much as the kicking tee.

The Texans are an astonishing 17-4 to the underneath in house video games with coach DeMeco Ryans, and the protection ought to ship an much more passionate efficiency whereas defending a backup quarterback. It is a low complete, however not low sufficient to move on.

Two crew, 6-point teaser (-110): Buffalo Payments -3.5 at Miami Dolphins and Bears +2.5 vs. Giants

Bowen: Of their first assembly of the season again in Week 3, Payments quarterback Josh Allen accomplished 78.6% of his passes, throwing for 3 scores. And the Payments had been each environment friendly and explosive working the ball. Let’s take this unfold right down to -3.5 factors right here versus a 2-7 Miami crew that regarded disinterested at instances within the Week 9 blowout loss to Baltimore.

On the opposite finish, Ben Johnson’s offense has discovered some juice with its dashing assault, because the Bears are averaging 144.4 yards per sport on the bottom (second most within the league). That works versus a Giants protection permitting a league-worst 5.5 YPC. Sure, Caleb Williams nonetheless must develop a stronger sense of timing as a thrower whereas delivering the ball with extra exact location. However Johnson can nonetheless arrange Williams with explosive-play alternatives within the move sport. Let’s bump this unfold as much as +2.5 factors. The Bears cowl on Sunday at Soldier Discipline.

Seth Walder’s defensive props

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Prop bets can be added as odds grow to be obtainable.

Offensive participant props

Josh Allen to attain Anytime TD (-105), go OVER 26.5 dashing yards (-120)

Bowen: Allen has rushed for 2 touchdowns in back-to-back video games, so let’s guess on the quarterback to search out the tip zone as a runner for the third straight sport. Whether or not that may be a designed carry or a second-reaction scramble try, regulate Allen when the Payments transfer the ball into the low pink zone space of the sphere at Miami.

Let’s stick with Allen and take the dashing over as nicely. Allen has at the least six carries in 4 of his previous 5 video games and has rushed for greater than 30 yards in 5 video games this season. This looks like a sport Allen takes over.

Tyler Shough to go UNDER 0.5 INTs (+135), UNDER 31.5 move makes an attempt (Even)

Walder: We now have so little information on Shough within the execs that we’re kind of flying blind on what sort of quarterback we should count on him to be. However the mannequin assumes, till it learns in any other case, that anybody with out a lot information is a solidly below-average participant — and so it treats Shough as if he has a excessive interception charge. And but it sees +160 on the underneath as a worth; the mannequin makes the honest value +115. Why the distinction? Maybe the market thinks Shough is an excessive interception threat versus only a excessive one. However there are two different components working in our favor. First, the opponent: The Saints are taking part in the Panthers and are solely 5.5-point underdogs, which suggests fewer sport script points and determined passing conditions are anticipated than the Saints would have in opposition to a greater crew. Second, New Orleans is a run-first crew. The Saints have a negative-7% move charge over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, which ranks twenty eighth within the NFL. Put all of it collectively, and a Shough interception is much from a lock.

I am doubling up Shough unders, and it is for among the similar causes. Most notably, the truth that the Saints have a unfavorable move charge over expectation. That signifies that given the sport context — akin to rating, down and distance, and clock — the Saints run the ball greater than the common crew. This is one thing else: The Panthers are much more run heavy, with a negative-10% move charge over expectation that’s lowest within the league. Meaning each groups can be churning the clock (at the least relative to expectation) once they have the ball, serving to our unders. My mannequin costs this makes an attempt prop at -167.

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Jaxson Dart to go OVER 210.5 passing yards (-115)

Bowen: Dart has thrown for over 220 yards in just one sport this season. However that is extra a few Bears secondary that’s down numbers due to accidents, and this unit regarded a step sluggish on the tape final week versus the Bengals. Dart could make sufficient throws outdoors of construction to hit the over right here.

Caleb Williams to go OVER 19.5 dashing yards (+115)

Bowen: Williams rushed for 53 yards within the Week 9 win over Cincy, and he has had at the least 24 yards on the bottom in his previous two video games. Williams is greater than prepared to eject from the pocket, extending performs as a runner. With the Giants’ edge rushers, search for Williams to drag the ball down and transfer on Sunday.

Bijan Robinson to go OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Solak: This appears like a smash week for Robinson by the air. The Falcons are anticipated to play with out beginning left guard Matthew Bergeron, who left final Week’s sport in opposition to the Patriots due to an ankle harm, and proper guard Chris Lindstrom is day-to-day due to a foot harm. The energy of this Colts protection is its defensive position, particularly on the inside (although DeForest Buckner has been dominated out of this sport already). The weak spot of the protection, particularly now that Sauce Gardner has been acquired, is the linebackers in house. Good for a Robinson receiving day.

As such, the Colts look like an identical defensive proposition because the Patriots had been final week, when Robinson had 10 targets, 5 of which got here within the first quarter. Even when Robinson would not have as a lot designed early-game receiving utilization, the Falcons are 6.5-point underdogs, which creates an advantageous sport script for RB checkdowns.

That is an early island sport, so it is value keeping track of reside strains. If Robinson has a quiet first two drives as a runner and the Colts get a first-quarter lead, I am going to look to reinvest on this quantity and probably take a look at receptions strains as nicely.

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Jaylen Waddle to go OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bowen: Waddle has at the least 80 yards receiving in 4 of his previous 5 video games, and he is seeing regular quantity, with a mean of seven targets per sport throughout this stretch. Explosive after the catch, Waddle can choose up numbers in a rush, and I believe Miami can be chasing factors versus Buffalo.

Davante Adams to go OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bowen: In Week 5 versus the 49ers, Adams noticed 11 targets, ending with 88 yards receiving. And with at the least seven targets in 4 straight video games, we will guess on Adams seeing optimistic quantity. Plus, quarterback Matthew Stafford is on a heater proper now. He is driving the ball. Let’s take Adams to hit the over in San Francisco.

Darnell Mooney to document 60+ receiving yards (+375)

Walder: Have we had success with these different receiving yards props? Completely not. Am I going to maintain going, by both a show of perseverance or stupidity? I’m.

Mooney’s route profile suits the kind of participant we usually goal for these medium or lengthy shot bets. He has a 51% vertical route charge that ranks seventh highest amongst extensive receivers and a mean of 15.4 air yards per goal. On high of that, although, Mooney has had an exceptionally poor catch charge of simply 43% this season, fifth worst amongst that very same group. That’s method out of line together with his profession quantity coming into this season (60%), so I believe some optimistic regression may work in our favor right here, too.

Justice Hill to go UNDER 15.5 receiving yards (-115)

Solak: In that I just like the Ravens to win large, I additionally like Hill to remain underneath his receiving yards complete. Backs see their receiving utilization spike as large underdogs and diminish as large favorites, and if the Ravens are nursing a second-half lead, I do not count on Hill to see any targets. Up to now two video games, in opposition to Chicago (14-point win) and Miami (22-point win), Hill has run solely six and 7 routes, respectively. Hill additionally will get low route utilization as a result of he is such a robust again in move safety. The Vikings, who blitz at one of many heaviest charges in soccer, usually maintain the opposing again within the formation by sending further rushers, for whom the again is accountable. Hill may at all times burn us with one display screen, but when this sport follows the anticipated script, 14.5 is just too excessive of a quantity for his route participation and goal depth.

Jaylen Warren to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-125)

Walder: The Chargers have overtaken the Cowboys as probably the most zone-heavy crew within the NFL. And they also have grow to be our new goal for working again reception props. Leaguewide since 2023, working backs catch passes on 8% of performs in opposition to man protection however on 15% of performs in opposition to zone protection — virtually double the speed! So we’re backing Warren in opposition to the Chargers underneath the premise that the market hasn’t totally baked within the man-zone splits for working backs.

Colston Loveland to attain Anytime TD (+250)

Bowen: Loveland scored two touchdowns final week within the win over the Bengals, and he has seen an finish zone goal in back-to-back video games. With Loveland’s skill to flex from the formation — aligning to the bottom of 3×1 units — Johnson can scheme up his rookie tight finish in pink zone isolation matchups versus the Giants.

Tyler Warren to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bowen: Warren caught 5 passes within the Week 9 loss to the Steelers, however he totaled simply 26 yards receiving. Nevertheless, Warren has topped the 50-yard receiving mark in 4 of his previous six video games, and the Colts can scheme to get the rookie tight finish unfastened on motion ideas (boot/play-action). Sure, the Falcons’ protection has actually good numbers versus tight ends this season, however I am betting on Warren’s rugged catch-and-run skill on Sunday in Berlin.