Making powerful lineup choices every week will be the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. If you’re torn between two comparable gamers and easily do not know which one to start out, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide one of the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings present a schedule-independent technique to guage positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 talent positions (quarterback, working again, broad receiver and tight finish). As a substitute of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed information to point out how every protection fared relative to the issue of the schedule it has confronted. This gives a extra honest method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy factors allowed, displays how far above or beneath gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity implies that the matchup is favorable; a detrimental quantity means it is unfavorable. Moreover, keep in mind groups usually use a number of working backs and broad receivers in a recreation, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a workforce’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings system. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup averted. If you need my — and the ESPN fantasy employees’s — most full supply for whom to start out and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups spotlight: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (versus New York Giants). I spoke about Williams’ reliance upon the matchups after his career-best, 38.7 fantasy-point efficiency towards the Cincinnati Bengals, and the enhancements he must make to shed that label. However any such abilities development can wait for one more week as he is in one other good spot so far as the matchup. The Giants are one in every of 5 groups to have surrendered a minimum of 5 video games of 20-plus fantasy factors to quarterbacks, they usually’re particularly prone to cell quarterbacks, as 3 times they’ve seen one rating a minimum of six fantasy factors on speeding performs.
Others to love: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Pittsburgh Steelers); Jaxson Dart, Giants (at Bears).
Matchup to keep away from: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (versus Atlanta Falcons). That is extra of a “prove-it” than clear sit-him matchup, however after Jones’ massively disappointing Week 9 effort towards the Steelers, it is price an examination. Final week, he posted seasonal worsts along with his 63.9 passer score, 62.0 completion proportion and 0.23 fantasy factors per go try, regardless of his going through a protection that has surrendered the third-most adjusted FPA for the season (+3.5). Now, Jones faces a Falcons protection that, placing apart Tua Tagovailoa’s out-of-nowhere 24.20 fantasy-point Week 8, has been wonderful towards the place. This recreation will communicate volumes about Jones’ sustainability as a top-10 weekly positional possibility going ahead, particularly with him coming into a difficult upcoming month on his schedule (ATL, bye, @KC, HOU).
Working backs
Matchups spotlight: Jaylen Warren, Steelers (at Chargers). After Kenneth Gainwell’s stunning receiving contributions in the course of the season’s opening month forged some doubt upon Warren’s fantasy potential, Warren has since reestablished that he is loads succesful. Within the Steelers’ previous 4 video games, he has run 63 routes to Gainwell’s 53 and has practically as a lot receiving manufacturing (15.1 fantasy factors, whereas Gainwell has 17.4). That dual-threat capability fits him nicely in video games with probably detrimental recreation script. However on this matchup, Warren aligns brilliantly when working the soccer. The Chargers, in spite of everything, are the one workforce in soccer to have had working backs common a couple of fantasy level per carry the previous 5 weeks (1.07).
Others to love: J.Okay. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (versus Las Vegas Raiders, “Thursday Evening Soccer”); D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, Bears (versus Giants).
Matchup to keep away from: Kimani Vidal, Chargers (versus Steelers). One space during which the Steelers have constantly succeeded defensively this season — their efficiency final week was extra aberration than the norm — is in containing working backs. Their minus-2.6 adjusted FPA for the season is eighth greatest, 0.55 factors allowed per run seventh greatest, they usually’re one in every of 4 groups to haven’t surrendered a 20 fantasy-point efficiency to a person working again. Vidal has had two sturdy and two forgettable video games as Omarion Hampton’s fill-in, and he’ll be taking part in his first full recreation with out Joe Alt, misplaced for the season due to an ankle damage.
Huge receivers
Matchups spotlight: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (at Bears). He has stepped up admirably because the Giants’ de facto No. 1 broad receiver following Malik Nabers’ season-ending knee damage, posting a team-leading 26.8% goal share whereas averaging 13.3 fantasy factors the previous 5 weeks, however extra importantly when inspecting this matchup, he has been one of many league’s most efficient slot receivers throughout that point. Of Robinson’s fantasy manufacturing, 77% has come out of the slot. The opposing Bears, in the meantime, have been one of many worst defenses towards slot receivers, surrendering a median of twenty-two.0 factors, whereas seeing Chris Olave (17.5 of 26.8 factors, Week 7), Zay Flowers (7.6 of 14.1, Week 8) and Andrei Iosivas (9.5 of 18.0, Week 9) put up massive particular person scores towards them the previous three weeks.
Others to love: Ladd McConkey, Chargers (versus Steelers); Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (at Minnesota Vikings).
Matchup to keep away from: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston Texans). So many indicators level to this being a transparent “no” amongst fantasy lineup issues for Week 10. Thomas is prone to be questionable due to a low-grade excessive ankle sprain, and the acquisition of Jakobi Meyers casts additional questions in regards to the workforce’s receiver pecking order. The matchup solely cements Thomas’ sit-him standing, because the Texans have been the league’s hardest protection towards broad receivers, whether or not for the previous 5 weeks or the season as an entire. The one two to have massive video games towards them are Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the place’s prime two by way of fantasy factors per recreation. Outdoors of them, solely 4 broad receivers have scored even 10 factors towards the Texans.
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Payments (at Miami Dolphins). Although he has been a hit-or-miss fantasy possibility, 3 times exceeding 15 fantasy factors however three different occasions falling shy of 10, he does have respectable, top-five positional numbers by way of common depth of goal (9.2 yards from the road of scrimmage) and catch price (82%) that make him a lovely upside play when the matchup is true. This one qualifies, because the Dolphins have seen 4 tight ends rating double-digit fantasy factors previously 4 weeks alone, and 7 for the season. Kincaid, in actual fact, scored 17.6 factors in these groups’ final assembly in Week 3.
Matchup to keep away from: Tyler Warren, Colts (versus Falcons). He is one of many league’s greatest and most concerned tight ends, making him a close to impossibility to bench, however acknowledge the draw back surrounding this specific matchup. The Falcons are the one workforce to haven’t seen a good finish rating as many as 10 factors towards them, and for the season they’ve the bottom fantasy factors per recreation allowed (5.3) and adjusted FPA (minus-5.4) towards the place.