Anger is a pure and sometimes completely affordable emotion, however it can be a bit of like misplacing your automobile keys. There’s frustration, outrage, exasperation and a string of epithets that will make Pat Narduzzi blush, after which simply when the feelings have reached their apex, you notice the keys have been in your coat pocket the entire time.
So it was with final week’s Anger Index.
BYU was proper to be upset that, regardless of a spotless report, it was slotted behind three one-loss groups.
The ACC was completely justified in its outrage, with out a single crew within the high 13, regardless of Louisville and Virginia profiling much better than two-loss groups ranked greater.
Memphis definitely had an ax to grind, relegated to the committee equal of an “others receiving votes” nod, when a three-loss crew from throughout the state cracked the highest 25.
So, in fact, we yelled and screamed and cursed the committee, and by the tip of Week 11, we think about those self same committee members have been sitting in an outsized chair, stroking a cat and smugly cackling like Bond villains.
However this can be a lesson price studying — not for the outraged and aggrieved, however for the committee.
As a result of the committee is made up of some notably smart school soccer minds, these of us can watch a crew’s efficiency and create a development line. They’ll see Virginia squeaking by in shut video games or examine the recruiting pedigree of BYU’s roster with groups from the SEC and make a completely affordable prediction that, on an extended sufficient timeline, these groups’ flaws will turn out to be evident and the outcomes will show the committee proper.
Nevertheless it’s a bit of like watching the Kentucky Derby, seeing the chief fading down the stretch and a favourite charging from the again. Can we predict the end result with some stage of certainty? Positive. However you do not name the race then and there.
The committee’s job is to survey the proof at hand and seize that particular second in time, not guess in regards to the future — educated as these guesses may be.
So, sure, BYU and Louisville and Virginia and Memphis had causes to be outraged, even when the committee’s predictions in the end got here true, simply as this week’s entrants on the Anger Index are completely justified of their frustrations, no matter what occurs from right here.
In Invoice Connelly’s SP+ rating this week, Georgia is one spot forward of Alabama. However the two groups have the identical report, and the Tide maintain a head-to-head benefit, so the committee — rightfully — has Alabama ranked greater.
SP+ truly has Oklahoma (ninth) forward of Texas (14th) by a large margin, and the Sooners’ total profile — with wins vs. Michigan and Tennessee — is healthier, too. However once more, the 2 faculties have the identical report, and Texas holds a head-to-head win, so the committee ranked the Horns greater.
Or think about Louisville and Virginia. The Cardinals (twenty sixth) are a full 15 spots forward of Virginia in SP+ and 14 spots greater in power of report. And regardless of that Virginia’s head-to-head win over the Cardinals got here in time beyond regulation and required two defensive touchdowns, the committee appreciates what occurred on the sector, and it has the Cavaliers ranked greater.
Equally, the committee has USC forward of Michigan, BYU forward of Utah and Georgia forward of Ole Miss, partially as a result of the metrics bear that out, but in addition as a result of, in every case, the higher-ranked crew has the head-to-head win.
Please clarify why Miami is totally different.
The Hurricanes’ metrics are strong. They’re thirteenth in SP+, thirteenth in power of report, have 4 wins vs. FPI top-35 groups (i.e. the highest 25% of FBS) — greater than anybody however Texas A&M and Alabama — and, in fact, have the identical report as Notre Dame and maintain the head-to-head victory over the Irish.
The committee, nevertheless, has Notre Dame ranked ninth and Miami Fifteenth.
It is nonsensical on its face, and worse when you think about the committee additionally has Texas (with a worse loss than both of Miami’s), Utah (only one FPI top-35 win) and Vanderbilt (4 spots behind Miami in FPI) all ranked greater, too.
Once more, it is definitely potential the Canes lose this week to NC State — a crew that has already taken down Virginia and Georgia Tech — however that is not the purpose. The committee is not purported to guess what’s going to occur subsequent. It is purported to rank groups based mostly on what they’ve performed thus far, and there’s completely no metric that warrants Miami’s placement behind so many two-loss groups with clearly inferior résumés.
It’d seem to be the distinction between being No. 5 and No. 6 within the committee’s rankings is not a lot, however think about this: Ohio State and Indiana will doubtless play within the Massive Ten title recreation. Some mixture of Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama will play within the SEC title recreation. Some member of the committee’s present high 4 is kind of more likely to slip from that high perch and commerce a first-round bye for a first-round residence recreation, and another person will get bumped up into the highest tier and revel in per week off when the playoff begins.
Texas Tech ought to have the within monitor on that bye, however the Purple Raiders do not, as a result of Georgia nonetheless charges forward of them.
Why?
Texas Tech has performed two top-13 groups now and crushed them by a mixed rating of 63-17. Georgia’s two greatest wins (vs. No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 23 Tennessee) got here by a mixed 11 factors.
Texas Tech has a loss to Arizona State that appears unhealthy on paper, however the Solar Devils truly profile nicely, they usually gained that recreation with a wholesome Sam Leavitt. Certainly that is a greater loss than Alabama’s defeat by the hands of slumping Florida State, proper?
Sure, who you play issues, and on this case, Alabama (No. 4 SoR) and Georgia (No. 5) have had the more durable highway. However the way you play has to matter, too, and the Purple Raiders have been way more dominant. Texas Tech has the second-best common in-game win likelihood within the nation, trailing solely Ohio State. Alabama’s is seventeenth. Georgia’s is thirty sixth. Sure, credit score to the Tide and Dawgs for profitable shut video games. However extra credit score to Texas Tech for avoiding shut video games altogether.
As a normal rule, if Lane Kiffin is mentioning a flaw within the committee’s logic, then the committee should take be aware. It isn’t definitely worth the retribution he’ll ultimately deal out with a mercilessly hilarious tweet.
Lane Kiffin makes the case for Texas A&M to be #1
“Texas A&M being No. 3, what extra would you like them to do to be 1?”
“They went as much as Notre Dame and gained.”
“What good did that do if that is not rewarded?
“They’ve the very best metrics of everyone and never No. 1.” pic.twitter.com/NJ0m7qWVrw
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 10, 2025
And, in fact, Kiffin is correct. What else does Texas A&M must do to be ranked No. 1? The Aggies have the No. 1 power of report, a supposedly vital stat for the committee. A&M has 5 wins vs. FPI top-35 groups; Ohio State has 4. A&M’s greatest win is vs. No. 9 Notre Dame. Ohio State’s is vs. No. 10 Texas. A&M has performed the Fifteenth-toughest schedule thus far (per ESPN’s metrics), whereas Ohio State has performed the forty first.
In the end, the distinction between being the highest seed and the No. 3 seed is minimal, and on condition that Ohio State and Indiana will doubtless face off in a Massive Ten title recreation, odds are the Aggies will enter the postseason at No. 2. No hurt performed, actually. Nevertheless it’s the precept of the factor. If A&M has the most effective résumé, it must be No. 1, as a result of nobody needs to spend a complete offseason listening to Greg Sankey whine in regards to the SEC getting handled unfairly.
Final week, we thought the Cougars have been being underappreciated. Then they went out and misplaced to Texas Tech and its ferocious protection and tumbled all the best way from No. 7 to No. 12 — or, from within the playoff to out of it.
However does it make sense to divvy out that a lot punishment for a single loss on the highway to probably the greatest groups within the nation? To drop BYU behind three two-loss groups, every of which has misplaced to a crew far worse than the Purple Raiders?
After all it does not, however that is simply the tip of the iceberg. How about this comparability?
Workforce A: No. 7 power of report, No. 24 power of schedule, two wins vs. SP+ top-40 groups by a mean of 4 factors, one loss to a top-10 crew by 10 at residence
Workforce B: No. 8 power of report, No. 28 power of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top-40 groups by a mean of eight factors, one loss to a top-10 crew by 22 on the highway
You’ve got in all probability guessed that Workforce B is BYU, and the No. 8 power of report metric alone ought to make the committee’s rating appear ludicrous.
However Workforce A? That is Oregon, which picked up its greatest win of the season in Week 11 in a recreation it almost misplaced to Iowa.
BYU and Oregon have the identical report. BYU has a win over the committee’s No. 13 crew, higher than Oregon’s win over No. 21 Iowa (which is unranked within the AP ballot, by the best way). They each have comprehensible losses, however BYU’s was on the highway.
And the committee sees BYU as 4 spots behind Oregon.
Make it make sense.
A fast blind résumé:
Workforce A: SP+ No. 12, greatest win vs. committee’s No. 18 crew, losses to SP+ Nos. 6 and 23 by a mixed 12 factors, 17.8 points-per-game common margin of victory vs. FBS opponents, who’re a mixed 38-29 in different FBS video games.
Workforce B: SP+ No. 14, greatest win vs. committee’s No. 11 crew, losses to SP+ Nos. 1 and 48 by a mixed 15 factors, 13.1 points-per-game common margin of victory vs. FBS opponents, who’re a mixed 33-34 in different FBS video games.
There’s not a ton of margin between the 2, however you’d in all probability give a slight edge to Workforce A, proper? Apart from Workforce B having a small benefit in its greatest win, Workforce A has the higher total résumé.
Nicely, Workforce A is the Trojans.
Workforce B? That’d be Texas, which the committee has seven spots greater.
As we confirmed with Miami’s spot, there is definitely room for lots of debate across the two-loss groups, however on condition that Notre Dame and Texas are at the moment on the appropriate aspect of the playoff dividing line, and Miami and USC (and others) are usually not, it is a debate that requires a ton of scrutiny. However someway, USC looks like the least scrutinized of any of the two-loss groups — a crew that has been largely ignored regardless of some actual success.
And it definitely feels just like the committee has checked out Miami’s loss to SMU and USC’s loss to Illinois and deemed these too egregious to warrant additional consideration, whereas fully ignoring the truth that Texas misplaced to a prepare wreck Florida Gators squad that has since fired its coach and went to time beyond regulation with each Kentucky and Mississippi State. It is notable, too, that the committee continues to rank a three-loss Iowa, whose power of report is No. 30, however not a three-loss Illinois, whose power of report is No. 18. By conserving the Hawkeyes within the high 25, issues look so much higher for fellow Pac-12-to-Massive Ten switch Oregon, and by conserving Illinois out, issues look worse for the Trojans.
Additionally offended this week: James Madison Dukes (8-1, unranked), Tulane Inexperienced Wave (7-2, unranked), Arizona State Solar Devils (6-3, unranked), Illinois Preventing Illini (6-3, unranked), North Texas Imply Inexperienced (8-1, unranked), Pitt followers (who’re apprehensive Notre Dame is about to hold 100 on them).