Worth is worth, regardless of the place — or how — you discover it. And that is what we’ll purpose to do every week on this area — discover worth.
Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in together with his personal distinctive model.
Bowen and Seth Walder convey totally different views to how they method sports activities betting. Bowen, a former NFL security, predicts optimistic matchups and recreation winners from tape research and his understanding of the league. Walder depends on statistical fashions to pick plus-expected worth bets.
These weekly picks won’t be restricted to a sure guess kind. From spreads and cash traces to totals and even defensive participant props, an excellent worth could be discovered anyplace.
Outcomes shall be tracked all through the season, with flat one-unit wagers for every listed guess.
With that, let’s dive into Week 7. As at all times, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Be aware: Defensive prop bets shall be added as they turn out to be out there.
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Sport bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Sport bets
0:57
Why Kurt Warner is frightened in regards to the Eagles
Kurt Warner joins “The Wealthy Eisen Present” to elucidate why he fears the Eagles have misplaced their identification.
Carolina Panthers-New York Jets complete factors UNDER 41.5 (-105)
Robust to guess on the Jets offense at this level. That unit ranks within the backside 10 in scoring, and the go recreation is restricted as a result of Justin Fields’ lack of timing and pocket consciousness. Plus, the Jets will see a Panthers protection that ranks ninth total versus the run (94.5 yards per recreation). On the flip facet, Carolina is scoring 22.0 PPG (nineteenth). Take the underneath. — Bowen
Miami Dolphins-Cleveland Browns to go UNDER 36.5 (-110)
With the climate calling for wind gusts of as much as 60 mile per hour in Cleveland on Sunday, let’s take the underneath on this one. Bear in mind, beginning quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Dillon Gabriel are each timing and rhythm throwers who lack the arm energy to drive the ball via the wind. That makes the passing recreation for Sunday unpredictable — at greatest. The run recreation leads the decision sheet right here, and each groups already rank within the backside half of the league in scoring. — Bowen
Two-team, six-point teaser (-110): Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (+5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+0.5)
Let’s tease the Chargers as much as +5 at house versus the Colts. Now, I actually like what Indy can do on offense with Daniel Jones. He is a ball distributor and manages a system that contains a high-level run recreation with Jonathan Taylor. However I will take the Chargers (with the factors), as Justin Herbert can goal a Colts secondary that will get again Kenny Moore II (Achilles).
On the opposite finish, Baker Mayfield is enjoying at an MVP stage, and he would possibly get Mike Evans again for the Monday night time recreation in Detroit. That is important with Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) each uncertain for this one. Nevertheless, in a recreation that has the make-up of a shootout, I will take Detroit’s explosive-play offense, and we get to tease the unfold all the way down to a half a degree. That is a winner. — Bowen
Two-team, six-point teaser (-139): New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-1.5), Houston Texans (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks
I like Denver with Vance Joseph’s protection versus rookie Jaxson Dart. However I prefer it much more taking the unfold all the way down to -1.5 for the Broncos at house. Bo Nix hasn’t performed his greatest soccer, and the Giants’ edge rushers might be disruptive. Low-scoring recreation right here, however Denver covers.
On the opposite facet, we are able to transfer the road as much as +9.5 for the Texans, and I be ok with that when DeMeco Ryans’ protection. This Texans unit is giving up solely 12.2 factors per recreation (lowest within the league), and so they rank within the high 10 in each passing and speeding yards allowed per recreation. Limiting Seahawks’ huge receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a should. We all know that. However the Texans even have the personnel to create pocket disruption versus quarterback Sam Darnold. And offensively, Texans huge receiver Nico Collins can create matchups in opposition to a Seahawks protection permitting 235.5 passing yards per recreation (twenty fourth). Take the Texans to cowl. — Bowen
Offensive participant props
0:49
Yates: Skattebo is a top-15 fantasy RB for Week 7
Discipline Yates explains why Cam Skattebo is stable beginning RB possibility because the Giants tackle the Broncos in Week 7.
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 34.5 go makes an attempt (-120)
Sure, Lawrence has had 40-plus go makes an attempt in half his video games this season, however we’ve to contextualize these makes an attempt with the down, distance and recreation state of affairs. After we do, we discover that the Jaguars are a run-leaning staff with a negative-8% go price over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. On high of that, the Rams protection has been inducing opponents to run greater than they normally do. Groups have recorded a negative-8% go price over expectation in opposition to Los Angeles however negative-2% in all different video games. Collectively, these two elements push my mannequin manner underneath right here. — Walder
Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 21.5 completions (-120)
Lawerence is averaging 21.5 completions on the season, so the quantity is correct. However these worldwide video games have been tough to look at. Unhealthy soccer there. So, I will take the underneath for Lawrence in London versus a Los Angeles Rams protection that has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 52.3 this season (seventh lowest). — Bowen
Sam Darnold to go UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-110)
My mannequin likes this guess, and even with only a look, this seems like a positive quantity. Darnold has thrown three picks this 12 months, placing him at a 1.8% interception price that’s roughly league common amongst starters, however he additionally hasn’t had any potential interceptions dropped, so my mannequin sees him barely extra favorably than the 1.8% price would recommend. Extra vital, although, is that Seattle is favored! As scary because the Houston go rush is, the truth that the Seahawks are stable 3.5-point favorites means we are able to anticipate fewer go makes an attempt for Darnold as a result of recreation script and fewer dangers if he’s enjoying from the lead. I worth this underneath at -137. — Walder
Cam Skattebo to go UNDER 2.5 receptions (+105)
Working backs catch passes in opposition to zone protection at virtually double the speed they do in opposition to man protection (an unimaginable break up!). We have been utilizing this reality — and my perception that it isn’t absolutely baked into the betting market — to principally guess reception overs in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys, who’re enjoying virtually historic ranges of zone protection (82% of the time). The flip facet of the coin works, too — operating again reception unders in opposition to man-heavy groups. And there’s no staff that performs extra man protection than the Denver Broncos. Their 65% man protection price is not a historic anomaly, however it’s the highest within the league by a wholesome margin. — Walder
Bo Nix to go OVER 19.5 speeding yards (-120)
As I mentioned above, the Giants have the sting rushers to warmth up the pocket versus Nix, and I believe that forces him to maneuver/play off-schedule as a runner. Nix has rushed for 20 or extra yards in 4 of his final 5 video games. He hits the over once more on this one, utilizing his dual-threat potential on scramble makes an attempt. — Bowen
Saquon Barkley to go OVER 74.5 speeding yards (-115)
Barkley’s numbers have been down this 12 months, as he’s averaging solely 54.2 yards speeding per recreation. But when Philly desires to create offensive solutions and set up extra tempo, it begins with the O-Line and the run recreation. That is Eagles soccer. Take Barkley to hit the over in opposition to a Minnesota run protection that’s permitting 132.2 rush yards per recreation (twenty fourth). — Bowen
Josh Jacobs to go OVER 74.5 speeding yards (-115)
Jacobs has rushed for 80 or extra yards in three of his final 4 video games and is averaging 19.6 carries per recreation on the season. We now have to keep in mind that the run recreation is a foundational piece on Matt LaFleur’s offense, so search for one other quantity day for Jacobs versus Arizona in Week 7. — Bowen
J.Ok. Dobbins to go OVER 61.5 yards speeding (-110)
Dobbins has topped 62 yards speeding in 5 of six video games this season, and he is averaging 15.2 carries a recreation. With regular quantity, let’s take Dobbins to hit the over versus a Giants protection that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. — Bowen
Travis Kelce to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)
Chiefs huge receiver Rashee Rice is again for suspension for the Sunday matchup versus the Raiders, however I do not suppose that erases Kelce’s impression on quicks and middle-of-the-field throws. Kelce has topped 42 yards receiving in 5 of six video games performed, and he will get a Raiders protection giving up a mean of 45.5 receiving yards per recreation to tight ends. Kelce stays busy on this one. — Bowen
Tory Horton to document 50+ receiving yards (+450)
Horton completely suits the profile of the kind of participant my alternate receiving yards mannequin usually targets (which, granted, has not precisely resulted in a lot success this 12 months!). He is a deep risk, operating deep fades and go routes 21% of the time (third-highest amongst huge receivers with no less than 80 receiving yards this 12 months), together with a 53% vertical route price total (fourth-highest). We search a majority of these gamers for a majority of these bets as a result of we’re not involved with the median consequence – go routes are inefficient on common, for instance – however quite upside. And deep routes present loads of upside. Plus, Horton’s effectivity has been fairly stable, too, with 2.2 yards per route run vs. man protection – an early indication of ability for the fifth-round rookie. — Walder
Zach Ertz to attain Anytime TD (+200)
Ertz has caught a landing go in three of six video games performed this season, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will scheme for his tight finish within the low crimson zone space of the sphere. Lot of juice on this guess, and it suits versus a Dallas protection that has given up a league-high 15 landing passes. — Bowen