We’re past the midpoint of the 2025 season and there is not a convention within the nation that has a clear-cut front-runner.
There are 60 FBS colleges with no a couple of convention loss, and ESPN’s FPI metric offers 29 of them a minimum of a ten% likelihood of successful their league.
It is not even simply the sheer quantity of contenders, it is the stunning groups which can be within the combine (hi there, Virginia, Cincinnati and Vanderbilt).
All of meaning we’re most likely in for one of many wildest Novembers in latest reminiscence, with each convention up for grabs and the playoff image as murky as ever. Good luck with all that, committee. — David Hale
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League title contenders | South Florida-Memphis
Key matchups | Quotes of the week
Who’s trying like a convention title contender?
ACC: Take seven groups. Throw them right into a hat. Shake it up. Pull out a reputation. There’s your ACC champion! OK, it isn’t precisely that chaotic, however it definitely feels that method.
The present favourite to win the convention, in response to FPI, is Georgia Tech — a workforce that’s undefeated however hasn’t performed a whole soccer sport but. The Yellow Jackets have trailed within the second half in three of their seven wins and have misplaced the turnover battle 4 occasions.
Virginia has performed with fireplace much more than Georgia Techs. The Cavaliers have gained three straight video games through which they trailed within the fourth quarter, together with two that went to additional time.
Louisville trailed Pitt by double digits within the second half, then misplaced to Virginia after surrendering two defensive touchdowns — however the Cardinals even have a win over Miami, which places them in prime place to make a run.
The Hurricanes are unquestionably probably the most gifted workforce within the ACC, however a Week 8 loss to Louisville uncovered some evident weaknesses within the run sport, an absence of a fringe risk within the passing sport, and noticed Carson Beck revert to the worst of his Georgia period when attempting to drive issues.
Then there’s SMU, which got here inside a whisker of successful the convention final yr, and the Mustangs nonetheless have not misplaced a regular-season ACC contest since becoming a member of the league.
Add in Duke and Pitt, who nonetheless have a minimum of a puncher’s likelihood, and the race to Charlotte for the ACC championship sport stays fully up within the air with out a clear-cut favourite to win all of it.
Maybe the larger takeaway is that, of all of the groups within the combine, Florida State and Clemson aren’t amongst them.
The ACC has had its share of wildness over time — although usually reserved to the lesser Coastal Division again within the days of divisional play — however 2025 is perhaps probably the most chaotic but. — Hale
Huge Ten: Two groups are barreling towards Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for the Huge Ten championship on Dec. 6. One has performed there usually, however not since 2020, and never earlier than a full crowd since 2019. The opposite is the Huge Ten faculty situated closest to the stadium, however largely an afterthought as a title hopeful till coach Curt Cignetti got here to city.
Ohio State and Indiana are the highest two ranked groups within the nation, and the highest contenders for the Huge Ten title. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers don’t meet in the course of the common season. Indiana has zero ranked opponents left on its schedule and will submit its first 12-0 common season after recording its first 10-0 begin simply final season. Ohio State will end with No. 25 Michigan, which, in case you have been stranded on an abandoned island, has gained 4 consecutive video games in opposition to coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes.
Each Ohio State and Indiana have overwhelmed No. 23 Illinois, and each squads additionally face preseason nationwide title contender Penn State, which is shockingly 0-4 in Huge Ten play and on the lookout for a brand new coach.
No. 6 Oregon Geese can nonetheless have a say, though the Geese have misplaced the tiebreaker to Indiana and nonetheless face journeys to Iowa and Washington. Six different groups have just one convention loss, together with Michigan, so issues might get fascinating if Ohio State and Indiana begin to stumble. However it could be a shock if the league would not come right down to the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. — Adam Rittenberg
Huge 12: Eight Huge 12 groups are presently projected to complete 8-4 or higher in response to FPI, which ought to make for a ton of last-minute drama in a convention race that got here right down to tiebreakers final season amid a four-way tie atop the standings.
Texas Tech was dominant via its 6-0 begin, successful each sport by 24 factors or extra, till its highway loss at Arizona State. The Purple Raiders must get senior quarterback Behren Morton again and wholesome in time for his or her massive showdown with BYU on Nov. 8.
BYU is off to a different spectacular 7-0 begin however has arguably the hardest remaining schedule within the convention, together with journeys to Iowa State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati.
Cincinnati emerged as a shock contender after knocking off Iowa State however nonetheless should face BYU plus highway exams at Utah and TCU. If Utah takes down Cincinnati, there’s an actual path to 10-2 with FPI presently giving the Utes a 17% likelihood of successful out.
Arizona State will get Houston and Iowa State up subsequent. Coach Kenny Dillingham has to love how the remainder of the schedule units up for the Solar Devils if they’ll maintain Sam Leavitt, Jordyn Tyson, Prince Dorbah and the remainder of their stars wholesome. Houston is the 6-1 workforce that no one noticed coming. The Cougars’ lone loss was to Texas Tech, and so they could make a significant assertion this week with an upset in Tempe.
Iowa State misplaced two in a row after rising as excessive as No. 14 within the AP ballot however can get proper again within the race with a win over BYU on Saturday. And do not depend out TCU, which can have an opportunity to play spoiler in opposition to a November slate of Iowa State, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati. — Max Olson
SEC: With a whopping 10 SEC groups ranked within the AP High 25 ballot this week, it is anybody’s guess as to which two will likely be left standing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama and No. 5 Georgia presently appear to be the groups to beat.
Or perhaps not.
The Aggies appeared like maybe probably the most full workforce within the league till their protection struggled in a 45-42 win at Arkansas final week. Texas A&M faces one of the demanding schedules the remainder of the best way with highway video games at LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Alabama has gained six video games in a row since falling 31-17 at Florida State in its opener. The Crimson Tide have two video games left in opposition to ranked opponents — LSU and Oklahoma at dwelling. They’re going to play at Auburn within the Iron Bowl, through which something can occur.
Georgia has already performed 5 SEC gamess and has just one true highway sport remaining — at Mississippi State on Nov. 8. The Bulldogs play rival Florida in Jacksonville the week earlier than and host Texas the week after.
No. 8 Ole Miss continues to be very a lot within the SEC title hunt, even after shedding 43-35 at Georgia final week. The Rebels must survive highway video games at Oklahoma on Saturday and at Mississippi State within the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28.
No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 13 Oklahoma, No. 15 Missouri and No. 22 Texas even have just one loss in SEC play.
The Commodores host Missouri on Saturday and have highway video games left at Texas and Tennessee. That is a tough stretch, however who’s going to doubt quarterback Diego Pavia & Co. at this level?
Oklahoma leads the SEC in scoring protection (9.4 factors), run protection (80.4 yards) and whole protection (213 yards). Can the Sooners get quarterback John Mateer and the offense again on monitor? They’re going to must as a result of every of their closing 5 video games are in opposition to ranked opponents, together with journeys to Tennessee and Alabama.
Missouri has three highway video games left in SEC play (at Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Arkansas). Texas continues to be a large number on offense, and it must get issues going earlier than it performs three video games in opposition to ranked foes: Vanderbilt (dwelling), Georgia (highway) and Texas A&M (dwelling).
There’s loads of parity within the SEC, and the convention title race figures to be even tighter when the league goes to a nine-game SEC schedule in 2026. — Mark Schlabach
How might South Florida-Memphis have an effect on the race for the G5 playoff spot?
What appears pretty clear heading into Week 9 is that the champion of the American Convention will land the Group of 5’s CFP spot. What’s much less clear is what groups will discover their method into the league’s title sport. The South Florida-Memphis sport ought to present some readability, though the conflict misplaced a little bit of zest after Memphis dropped its first sport final week to a UAB workforce that had fired its coach.
Memphis has a significant scheduling profit the remainder of the best way because it hosts not solely No. 18 South Florida, however 6-1 Tulane on Nov. 7 and undefeated Navy on Nov. 27. The Tigers have gained 10 straight at Simmons Financial institution Liberty Stadium, and have 64 dwelling wins since 2014, trailing solely Alabama (72), Clemson (70) and Ohio State (69) amongst FBS groups.
However do not anticipate South Florida to be intimidated. Coach Alex Golesh’s workforce already has highway wins in opposition to Florida and North Texas, handing the Imply Inexperienced their first loss with a 63-36 thrashing on Oct. 10. South Florida has the most effective profile for CFP choice amongst Group of 5 groups, though Tulane, which beat Northwestern and Duke, additionally has a case. Tulane and South Florida do not play one another in the course of the common season, and South Florida additionally visits Navy on Nov. 15.
Backside line: the nice American race (to a CFP berth) is wild, and far of it goes via Memphis, starting this weekend. — Rittenberg
Greatest issues that must occur in every matchup
Texas A&M-LSU: For LSU, the Tigers’ greatest problem is corralling the Aggies’ dynamic receivers, KC Concepcion and Mario Craver whereas holding A&M quarterback Marcel Reed from additionally making performs along with his toes. The Tigers do not wish to get in a high-scoring sport with their offensive struggles (they presently are eighty fifth in scoring offense), and the Aggies will likely be seeking to proceed the formulation that has labored for a lot of the season: get a lead, then put on out the protection with the offensive line and a deep pool of working backs. LSU’s protection, in the meantime, which ranks fifteenth in defensive passing effectivity, picked off Florida’s DJ Lagway 5 occasions, performed keep-away and gained the field-position sport in a win in opposition to a dynamic quarterback. Reed must make good choices and never attempt to do an excessive amount of. If the Aggies can handle that, they’ll keep undefeated and proceed this run. However an evening sport in Baton Rouge will check the nerves of any opponent. — Dave Wilson
UCLA-Indiana: Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is doing his finest to verify the Hoosiers don’t overlook a red-hot UCLA workforce, going so far as to explain the Bruins as being undefeated at 3-0 and never their precise 3-4 document. Whereas interim head coach Tim Skipper does have the Bruins rolling, that is their hardest problem but as they head to Bloomington to face Cignetti’s squad, which has a case for being the most effective workforce within the nation this season. UCLA’s protection has dominated its previous two opponents — Maryland and Michigan State — permitting a single landing to every of them, but each of these groups rank within the backside quarter of the nation in whole offense. The Bruins can have their arms full Saturday because the Hoosiers make use of one of many 5 finest offensive items within the sport and boast a possible Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. If there is a silver lining for Skipper’s workforce, it is that defending the move is one thing it does fairly nicely (twenty fifth nationally). Controlling the tempo of this sport will likely be key; if quarterback Nico Iamaleava and UCLA’s working backs can produce lengthy, scoring drives in opposition to a top-five protection and restrict Indiana’s offense possessions, the Bruins may need an opportunity to tug off their most gorgeous upset but. — Paolo Uggetti
Missouri-Vanderbilt: Coming into this sport, Missouri and Vanderbilt every rank high 15 nationally in run protection, defensive stress charge and deal with for loss yardage. With that, Saturday’s matchup would possibly swing on whichever workforce’s offense holds up higher in a battle between two of the nation’s most aggressive and dominant front-seven items. Auburn and Alabama discovered methods to decelerate Tigers working again Ahmad Hardy and this system’s SEC-leading dashing assault (244.9 YPG) earlier this month. If the Commodores — who’ve but to surrender greater than 146 dashing yards in a sport this fall — can include Missouri on the bottom, they’re going to be capable of maintain the Tigers in long-yardage conditions and produce the type of stress that has tended to disrupt Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula this fall. Vanderbilt has the final word X-factor in Heisman hopeful Diego Pavia, who took full benefit of a weak LSU move rush in Week 8, accounting for 3 touchdowns within the Commodores’ 31-24 win over the Tigers final weekend. Led by defensive ends Zion Younger and Damon Wilson II, a Missouri entrance seven that is blowing up opposing backfields extra regularly (49.4% stress charge) than all however three defenses nationally will current a a lot more durable proposition. Any recipe for a Tigers victory in Nashville begins with limiting Pavia on the bottom and holding a lid on certainly one of school soccer’s most dynamic playmakers. — Eli Lederman
Quotes of the week
“It is phenomenal prep. Movie research of alerts, I simply let you know how it’s and I feel they do an amazing job of that,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin mentioned of Oklahoma coach Brent Venables and the Sooners’ success on protection. “In the event you research individuals rather well after which you’ve gotten sufficient confidence as a coach to go after these, that is what [Venables] does. It looks like they have a extremely good beat on the performs which can be coming after they’re referred to as and so they do an amazing job of taking these away. You have a look at the Auburn sport. I informed Hugh [Freeze] after the sport watching it he might wish to change alerts. It appears like they’ve the performs. The center security is working right down to steal slants, which could be very irregular.”
“I suppose coming from Lane, I take it as a praise,” Venables responded throughout his weekly radio present. “Like, he should have watched our guys be actually ready, as a result of that is who they’re, man. They’re relentless.”
“I’m nonetheless attempting to determine weaknesses. Like, it’s loopy how disciplined they’re. Coach [Curt] Cignetti does an amazing job with these guys,” UCLA interim coach Tim Skipper mentioned of Indiana.
“By powerful time, you imply we have by no means carried out it?” Aggies coach Mike Elko mentioned when requested about Texas A&M’s 0-6 document at LSU’s Tiger Stadium since becoming a member of the SEC.
“The video we posted — that wasn’t even me, that was AI,” Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham mentioned of a video of him doing the worm following the Solar Devils’ Week 8 win over Texas Tech. “I do not even know what it actual … that might be superior if I might do the worm like that. That’d be fairly cool. I am not fairly that cool. However AI makes me look cool.”
“I leaned into throwing tortillas at the start of the soccer season,” Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt mentioned Monday whereas asserting that the varsity would not allow the Purple Raiders’ decades-old custom. “Now I need to ask everybody to cease.”