Erling Haaland has become the fastest-ever player to score 100 Premier League goals, hitting that mark in his 111th appearance for Manchester City against Fulham earlier this month.
In just under 3½ seasons at the Etihad, the 25-year-old has already climbed to 34th position in the Premier League’s all-time scoring charts — Cristiano Ronaldo sits in 33rd on 103 goals — and it seems inevitable that he will join Wayne Rooney (208), Harry Kane (213) and Alan Shearer (260) in the 200-club in record time.
Former Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United forward Shearer remains way out in front as the Premier League’s all-time top scorer — the ex-England captain’s overall top-flight tally is 283 goals due to 23 scored for Southampton before the Premier League began in 1992-93 — but even that record now appears to be in Haaland’s sights. The striker even admitted after reaching his century: “I know about it. But I don’t think too much about it.”
But can the Norway forward, who is contracted to City until the end of the 2033-34 season, really overhaul Shearer at the top of the tree?
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At his current pace, Haaland would have to score 25 goals a season for the next six seasons to come close to breaking Shearer’s record. Even if he takes another 8½ seasons — the remaining years on his contract — Haaland would still need to be averaging around 18 league goals a season.
For a striker of Haaland’s incredible consistency, the 260-goal target seems well within reach. Still, there are five key obstacles that he must overcome if he is to overtake Shearer as the greatest goal scorer in Premier League history.
Injuries
No player is immune to injury, and the threat of a long-term layoff due to a serious injury is the nightmare scenario for every player.
The truly elite players, such as Lionel Messi, Ronaldo, and Mohamed Salah, have all enjoyed relatively injury-free careers. To date, Haaland’s longest layoff was a 54-day foot injury absence during the 2023-24 season, which saw him miss 11 City games in all competitions.
But the top three in the Premier League goal-scorers list have all seen their overall tallies impacted by lengthy injury problems.
Both Rooney and Kane missed large chunks of action, with Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur respectively due to a variety of injuries — Rooney was twice laid off with a metatarsal injury while Kane had a series of ankle layoffs — while Shearer missed almost two full seasons with serious injuries at Blackburn and Newcastle.
A cruciate ligament injury at Blackburn when he was just 22 years old and damaged ankle ligaments at Newcastle five years later, sidelined Shearer for a total of 431 days when he was in his prime. Shearer has since said that the ankle injury changed his game forever and “cost me half-a-yard of pace.”
Those injuries potentially cost Shearer between 30 to 50 Premier League goals, so a similar setback for Haaland could knock him off course in his bid to topple Shearer, both in terms of time out of the game and the impact it may have on his physical ability.
Form
Every striker endures a goal drought during their career and most battle to overcome them each season.
Haaland, by contrast, has displayed incredible consistency ever since scoring the first goal of his career as an 18-year-old for Norwegian team Molde in July 2018, and his longest run without a Premier League goal for City extends to just four games between December and January during the 2023-24 season.
In fact, that run was two games either side of the seven-week layoff with a foot injury that remains his longest absence, so when he has been fit and firing, Haaland’s longest Premier League drought has been several three-game periods.
If he can maintain that consistency, Haaland will surely overhaul Shearer within the next five to six seasons, especially with him still being in the early peak years of his career.
But form can evaporate, even for the best strikers, and how Haaland handles the inevitability of a longer loss of form than he has previously suffered will be a key pointer as to when, or if, he breaks Shearer’s record.
The Guardiola factor
Manchester City’s success over the past decade has coincided with Pep Guardiola’s reign as manager — he arrived at the Etihad in July 2016 — and his presence at the club was a crucial, perhaps even deciding, factor in Haaland choosing City when he had an array of teams chasing him when he left Borussia Dortmund in 2022.
While Guardiola remains at City, it is difficult to envisage the team sliding out of contention for the major honors, so Haaland has nothing to worry about in terms of playing for a competitive team.
But the big question over City’s future, and Haaland’s, is about what happens when Guardiola decides to move on. The 54-year-old is under contract until June 2027, but he has made contradictory statements about whether he will leave the club on expiry or whether he will sign a new deal.
Yet once Guardiola vacates the stage, will the appeal of playing for a new coach work for Haaland or will it be the moment to consider his own future?
A quick recollection of Manchester United’s decline following Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement in 2013 may set alarm bells ringing for Haaland, but Liverpool’s ability to win the Premier League under Arne Slot last season following Jürgen Klopp’s exit a year earlier offers a more positive scenario for a post-Pep era at City.
But make no mistake, once Guardiola leaves City, it will leave Haaland with a big decision of his own about whether to stay or go.
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The 115 charges
It is now more than a year since a hearing into the Premier League charges against City for 115 alleged breaches of financial regulations was heard by a panel of judges — it actually concluded after 12 weeks in early December 2024 — but all parties are still waiting for a decision to be announced.
City deny all charges, but if the verdict goes against the club, a range of disciplinary options are available to the Premier League, ranging from substantial fines, points deductions and the ultimate threat of expulsion from the competition.
If the worst-case scenario of expulsion is applied to City, Haaland’s future will be just one of many issues within an existential crisis for the club.
But if City are punished with points deductions that cost them a place in the UEFA Champions League or hit with a financial penalty that forces them to offload players to balance the books, Haaland’s future at the club will come into serious doubt.
The flipside for City is that, if they are vindicated and exonerated by the panel, the club will likely invest heavily in the squad and that will only make them stronger and a much more attractive proposition for Haaland.
The lure of LaLiga
Ever since Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan took control of City with his takeover in September 2008, the club has had a remarkable record in terms of holding onto its best players.
None of City’s top stars have been lured away from the Etihad by LaLiga giants Real Madrid or Barcelona during their peak years and that is because the Premier League club have been able to offer both ongoing success and huge wages to keep their players happy at the club.
But over the years, Manchester United have lost Ruud van Nistelrooy and Ronaldo to Real Madrid, Arsenal couldn’t stop Thierry Henry moving to Barcelona and Liverpool have seen Luis Suárez (Barcelona) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real) leave Anfield for LaLiga’s superpower clubs.
And despite his lifelong affinity to Spurs, Harry Kane shelved his attempt at taking Shearer’s record by moving to the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich in 2024.
Madrid and Barça are the two clubs most likely to appeal to Haaland, though, and both would make a move should he signal an interest in a move to Spain.
With Robert Lewandowski now 37, Barca will be scouting for a replacement for the Poland international sooner rather than later, so City may need to brace themselves for an approach from Spain for their biggest star long before his contract expires.
So, will Haaland eclipse Shearer?
Despite all of the obstacles that Haaland may have to clear, it seems a certainty that he will break Shearer’s record if he remains at City for the duration of his contract.
Even if he suffers injury and a prolonged loss of form, Haaland still has eight-and-a-half years on his City contract, so it would be unthinkable for him to fail to topple Shearer.
But whether he is prepared to stay at City for that length of time, especially with the uncertainty over Guardiola and the 115 charges, is the biggest question mark over Haaland breaking the record.
The likeliest outcome? Haaland will quickly get to 200 goals, but the appeal of a new challenge elsewhere will prove more tantalising than the chance to break Shearer’s record.
So for now, Shearer’s record might just be safer than everyone thinks.