Atlanta United gamers bumped chests. The teaching workers linked arms. Crew executives hugged. Why should not they have fun? They’d simply bounced Inter Miami CF and Lionel Messi from the 2024 MLS postseason, pulling off one of many greatest playoff upsets in American sports activities historical past.
It was an enormous upset, proper? Proper?
Whether or not you discover it maddening or irresistible, MLS’s tremendous margins stay a key a part of the league. Even towards the perfect of the perfect, like final yr’s Miami crew that set a single-season factors file, struggling groups nonetheless have an opportunity to win because of carefully managed roster guidelines designed to take care of parity.
Each crew that finds itself within the first spherical of this yr’s MLS postseason ought to view itself as an MLS Cup contender. Conversely, no crew ought to consider itself as something near invincible.
This is why every crew will — and will not — win MLS Cup.
Supporters’ Defend standings: fifteenth
Video games performed in 2025: 41
Common season aim differential: -8
Common season anticipated aim differential: -7.75
Why they may win MLS Cup: Their protection can gasoline a run. Austin’s greatest energy lies in its protection, which completed tied for tenth within the league primarily based on non-penalty xG allowed in response to FBref. Nico Estévez’s emphasis on disciplined off-ball work includes a low line of confrontation: Austin FC enters the postseason with the seventh deepest block primarily based on American Soccer Evaluation’s common top of defensive motion metric. You may’t beat Los Verde if you cannot rating on them.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: Their squad is an unbalanced mess. With out making an attempt to take a shot at promising teen Owen Wolff, it is a huge downside that the 20-year-old is that this crew’s major playmaker. Austin FC sporting director Rodolfo Borrell has but to form his squad into something resembling a balanced attacking unit, and that can come again to chunk the crew within the playoffs.
Supporters’ Defend standings: seventh
Video games performed in 2025: 41
Common season aim differential: +9
Common season anticipated aim differential: -4.04
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’ve elite goalkeeping. After successful 2024’s Goalkeeper of the Yr award, Kristijan Kahlina is within the midst of one other wonderful season: he saved eight targets greater than anticipated and completed second within the league in save share within the common season, in response to FBref.
Kahlina fueled a record-tying nine-game win streak earlier this season. Why could not he gasoline a five-game win streak within the playoffs?
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They rely an excessive amount of on stated elite goalkeeping. You understand what’s higher than having nice goalkeeping? Having that … plus different stuff. Because it stands, Charlotte would not have sufficient firepower exterior of Kahlina to make a deep run. Pep Biel’s continued harm struggles characterize a crushing blow to this crew’s assault and leaves them far too reliant on flawless play within the again.
Supporters’ Defend standings: thirteenth
Video games performed in 2025: 41
Common season aim differential: +10
Common season anticipated aim differential: +4.8
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’re abruptly acquired a balanced crew. For many of 2025, the Hearth have been a story of two extremes: an elite assault and a wet-tissue-paper protection. However ever since Gregg Berhalter put an additional middle again on the sphere final month, Chicago’s protection has been reworked. Of their seven video games since that tactical swap, the Hearth have gone from permitting 1.78 xG per sport (twenty seventh in MLS) to 1.39 (seventh in MLS), as per ASA. Immediately, Chicago’s greatest weak point has evaporated.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They’re already up towards it. After dropping a decent sport towards Philadelphia to open their Spherical 1 collection, issues look bleak for Chicago. Toss in the truth that their finest participant in Philip Zinckernagel missed Sunday’s match with an harm and you’ve got an disagreeable playoff image taking form for the Hearth.
Supporters’ Defend standings: 2nd
Video games performed in 2025: 44
Common season aim differential: +12
Common season anticipated aim differential: -7.51
Why they may win MLS Cup: Their expertise is elite. It is inconceivable to have a look at Cincinnati’s roster and never be enamored with its expertise. From Evander, Kévin Denkey and Brenner within the assault to a backbone of MLS standouts, there’s a lot to love. Plus, with Obinna Nwobodo lastly wholesome sufficient to begin in midfield, FCC have regained some valuable stability within the engine room and have the potential to achieve MLS Cup.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: The information thinks they are a bunch of frauds. FC Cincinnati’s underlying numbers are — how can I put this gently — woeful. They rank simply twenty second in xG differential this yr, in response to ASA, barely beating even a number of the league’s worst groups. Of their 20 regular-season wins, 16 got here by solely a single aim. Up towards the perfect of the perfect, Cincy seems set to fade.
Supporters’ Defend standings: twelfth
Video games performed in 2025: 42
Common season aim differential: +4
Common season anticipated aim differential: +6.08
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’ve finished it earlier than. Should you discover it troublesome to guess towards Wilfried Nancy, don’t be concerned: you are not alone. With one MLS Cup to his identify since taking cost of the Crew in 2023 and a file of success in Montreal with a restricted funds, no MLS supervisor conjures up extra confidence than Nancy. He is given Columbus clear on-field directions and has postseason proof of idea.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They do not defend like they used to.
Again when the Crew lifted MLS Cup in 2023, they ranked tenth within the common season for non-penalty xG allowed. This yr, they’re approach down in 18th and have the worst protection of Nancy’s tenure primarily based on that very same metric. With accidents within the backline (and the frontline!), this crew merely is not robust sufficient to say two Cups in three years.
Supporters’ Defend standings: sixteenth
Video games performed in 2025: 39
Common season aim differential: -6
Common season anticipated aim differential: -5.79
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’ve discovered new life with out Lucho Acosta. In a basic case of addition by subtraction, Dallas went from averaging 1.04 factors per sport with the Argentine No. 10 to a staggering 1.9 factors per sport within the common season after transferring him to Brazil. Eric Quill’s shift to a low block that creates transition assaults for Petar Musa has labored a deal with.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They’re lacking too many items. Even with Quill’s system designed to attenuate the time his gamers must defend in house, the bottom of low blocks cannot completely remodel Dallas’ low-talent outfit.
Do not consider me? Take a look at its opening playoff loss to Vancouver. With below-average defenders surrounding Osaze Urhoghide and an inconsistent central midfield group, Dallas is a number of items shy of being a real MLS Cup contender.
Supporters’ Defend standings: sixth
Video games performed in 2025: 49
Common season aim differential: +25
Common season anticipated aim differential: +25.95
Why they may win MLS Cup: Their superstars are pink sizzling. It is inconceivable for an opponent to have a look at LAFC and never instantly begin to sweat — that is simply the impact a ahead partnership of Son Heung-Min and Denis Bouanga has on folks. Since arriving from Tottenham Hotspur, Son has averaged greater than a aim contribution per common season look, whereas Bouanga has exploded for 13 aim contributions in his 10 common season video games with Son. There’s merely no scarier, seemingly title-destined duo in MLS.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They nonetheless have a transparent weak point. For all their attacking energy, LAFC can battle to interrupt down a low block. Steve Cherundolo’s crew ranked simply twelfth in passes into the field within the common season, in response to FBref, regardless of tenting out within the closing third early and sometimes. If they’ll be toppled, it will be by a low, compact protection.
Inter Miami
Supporters’ Defend standings: third
Video games performed in 2025: 55
Common season aim differential: +28
Common season anticipated aim differential: +20.17
Why they may win MLS Cup: Their ceiling is the very best within the league. This one is not sophisticated, people. At their finest, Inter Miami can attain a stage no different crew within the league can. They turned the primary MLS crew to defeat a European crew in an official competitors once they topped FC Porto on the Membership World Cup and their Messi-led assault is among the finest MLS has seen. I did point out that Messi performs for Miami, did not I?
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They’re too outdated, too sluggish, and too unhealthy at defending. Very like final yr once they have been bounced by Atlanta United, this yr’s Inter Miami squad cannot defend. No computerized playoff crew allowed extra targets than Miami’s 54, and no crew in your complete league is older or much less cellular. This crew is just too hilariously unbalanced to win something necessary.
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Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC – Recreation Highlights
Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC – Recreation Highlights
Supporters’ Defend standings: eighth
Video games performed in 2025: 44
Common season aim differential: +17
Common season anticipated aim differential: +1.30
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’ll win video games in methods no different crew can. No person generated extra photographs from free kicks this yr than Minnesota. No person scored extra targets off these alternatives than their seven, both. With elite dead-ball play and the most popular goalkeeper within the postseason subject in Dayne St. Clair, who boasted MLS’s finest save share per FBref, the Loons have distinctive benefits to depend on for a playoff run.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: Their finest participant is gone. It is exhausting to show down a examine for almost eight-figures, which is what Minnesota reportedly acquired from Villarreal in return for the switch of Tani Oluwaseyi over the summer season. However one factor is obvious: their kind on the sphere with out the Canadian is sagging as a lot as their pockets. With out Oluwaseyi to steer the transition assaults, Minnesota United merely do not look constantly harmful as they will must right now of yr.
Supporters’ Defend standings: eleventh
Video games performed in 2025: 42
Common season aim differential: +11
Common season anticipated aim differential: +17.20
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’ve already confirmed their knockout bonafides. Nashville seems unrecognizable beneath B.J. Callaghan in comparison with previous years, and their revamped type of play has already helped lead the membership to a U.S. Open Cup triumph. With the arrogance that comes from successful a knockout match, a gentle protection, and a dynamic assault led by Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, there’s an entire lot to love about Nashville’s probabilities.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: Their file towards the perfect of the perfect is uninspiring. In 9 common season video games towards groups that completed within the high 4 in both convention, Nashville SC boasts a file of simply three wins to pair with six losses. Toss in a gap postseason defeat to Miami, and this crew has struggled too usually towards the perfect MLS has to supply.
Supporters’ Defend standings: ninth
Video games performed in 2025: 40
Common season aim differential: +6
Common season anticipated aim differential: +6.26
Why they may win MLS Cup: They management video games with an iron grip. First-year New York Metropolis coach Pascal Jansen has leaned into the possession-heavy type of play all of us affiliate with Metropolis Soccer Group groups: NYCFC’s 54% possession ranked them fifth in MLS’s common season. All of that ball management has become management of matches, with New York Metropolis boasting the league’s sixth-best defensive file primarily based on FBref’s non-penalty xG metric. If you cannot poke the ball away from a crew, it tends to be exhausting to beat them.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They do not have sufficient assist for Alonso Martínez. The Costa Rica striker has posted 15.4 non-penalty xG this yr. His subsequent closest teammate, Hannes Wolf? He is managed simply 6.6.
The Pigeons are just too reliant on Martínez. If he is marked out of the sport, what then?
Supporters’ Defend standings: 1st
Video games performed in 2025: 41
Common season aim differential: +22
Common season anticipated aim differential: +18.26
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’re again to their stylistic finest. Again when the Union have been one Gareth Bale header away from lifting the 2022 MLS Cup, they have been a hyper-aggressive crew. After some temporary wanderings within the stylistic wilderness, they’ve grow to be that crew once more: Philly forces opponents into probably the most vertical passes in MLS, as per American Soccer Evaluation. When doubtful, returning to the ideas that acquired you to your final MLS Cup is a tremendous technique.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They only misplaced their finest central playmaker. Shedding Quinn Sullivan to an ACL tear was a brutal accident for Philadelphia. The 21-year-old attacking midfielder ranked second within the squad for passes into the field. With out Sullivan, the Union will not be as harmful when opponents sit deep and power them to hit the ultimate ball.
Supporters’ Defend standings: seventeenth
Video games performed in 2025: 43
Common season aim differential: -6
Common season anticipated aim differential: -12.47
Why they may win MLS Cup: Their splashy summer season signing seems like a success. It is uncommon to get manufacturing from a summer season signing in MLS merely due to how late the switch window falls within the league’s calendar, however the Timbers have discovered a real influence participant in Kristoffer Velde. Even with new environment, the Designated Participant attacker finds himself within the 89th percentile for shot-creating actions amongst No. 10s and wingers in MLS, as per FBref. He is already on the scoresheet within the playoffs, too.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: Their splashy winter signing seems like a bust. Though Velde has thrived, David Da Costa has struggled in Portland. The attacking midfielder was benched as not too long ago as final month and has simply eight non-penalty aim contributions. A transparent downgrade from Evander, Da Costa represents the Timbers’ expertise bleed that can depart them wanting MLS Cup.
Supporters’ Defend standings: 4th
Video games performed in 2025: 40
Common season aim differential: +24
Common season anticipated aim differential: +9.17
Why they may win MLS Cup: They’re stylistic cousins of the previous two winners. Should you look again on the final two Cup winners within the Columbus Crew and the LA Galaxy, you see two extremely ball-dominant groups. San Diego took a web page from their trophy-winning predecessors and led the league in passes this yr, connecting play downfield to attract the opposing press and expose house in behind. That strategy has labored two years working. Why could not it work as soon as extra?
Why they will not win MLS Cup: Groups now know methods to beat them. San Diego cannot catch groups abruptly with their type anymore. Opponents know that sitting deep, attacking on the break and hitting on set items is the way in which to topple them. In line with ASA, the enlargement outfit sits sixteenth in MLS in xG allowed on quick breaks and lifeless balls. They’re too leaky to win all of it.
Supporters’ Defend standings: tenth
Video games performed in 2025: 50
Common season aim differential: +10
Common season anticipated aim differential: +15.03
Why they may win MLS Cup: There are no holes of their roster. Heading into the playoffs, solely two groups in MLS performed extra video games than Seattle’s 49 throughout all competitions. To navigate one of many busiest schedules in league historical past, the Sounders’ entrance workplace has constructed a roster with depth and high quality throughout each single place. With elite underlying numbers on each side of the ball, they will be prepared for something this postseason.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They’re too drained. Absolutely there is a level at which the Sounders begin to tire from their jam-packed schedule. Even with a deep roster, that Seattle has performed six extra video games than their Spherical 1 opponent and 10 greater than their more than likely convention semifinal foe in San Diego is a definite drawback.
Supporters’ Defend standings: fifth
Video games performed in 2025: 51
Common season aim differential: +31
Common season anticipated aim differential: +29.60
Why they may win MLS Cup: They only maintain making historical past. This yr’s Whitecaps crew hasn’t solely put collectively the perfect season in membership historical past, it has managed among the finest seasons in league historical past, ending with the second-most factors of any MLS crew within the trendy period to achieve the Concacaf Champions Cup closing. Doubt their Cup potential at your individual peril.
Why they will not win MLS Cup: They’re too injured. Vancouver is present process a middle again disaster: Ranko Veselinovic, Tristan Blackmon and the 2 gamers signed to fill in for them are both injured or aren’t bedded in. Ryan Gauld hasn’t been match sufficient to begin. Brian White has been out injured. The listing goes on. Jesper Sørensen’s crew has discovered outcomes with out key gamers all through the season, however persevering with that pattern within the playoffs shall be a bridge too far.