Arizona and Michigan are set to enter the Final Four as the top contenders to claim victory in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, standing at a virtual tie for their direct confrontation. Meanwhile, Illinois and UConn find themselves competing as the longshots.
Both the Wildcats and Wolverines are listed at +175 to secure the national championship, whereas Illinois (+400) and UConn (+550) closely follow, per DraftKings’ betting figures. Michigan held the runner-up odds at +370 and Arizona the bronze-level odds at +380 prior to the tournament’s start; the Fighting Illini and Huskies were not considered top picks, entering at 22-1 and 25-1, in that order.
Every one of those teams had been pursuing Duke, who entered the competition tipped as champions at +360. The Blue Devils suffered an unexpected defeat due to an exciting final-moment three-pointer by UConn, who faced 16-1 odds to win the game as its biggest underdog. This turnaround was so unlikely that FanDuel Sportsbook even published odds for a Duke-Illinois Final Four match.
A punter at Caesars Sportsbook in New Jersey nervously watched a $300,000 bet placed before the game on UConn at +205 odds … yielding a profit of $615,000 once the Huskies executed their turnaround.
UConn has drawn wagers on long-term outcomes both prior to and during the entire course of the tournament, with BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle designating Dan Hurley’s team as the sportsbook’s sole outstanding risk. The book accepted a $25,000 bet earlier in the current campaign at +900 odds, and also a $50,000 wager on Arizona at +450 odds; each of these would generate $225,000 should they prevail. At FanDuel, the Huskies have garnered the highest volume of wagers to win the national championship in total, as well as the most over the past day in terms of betting slips and total amount wagered.
BetMGM states that its most favorable outcome would involve Michigan claiming the national championship, although Arizona or Illinois would similarly yield positive returns for the bookmaker. Typically, sportsbooks will be supporting the favorites from this point onward.
“We will be backing the winner of the Arizona-Michigan semifinal to succeed in the championship game. We’ve dedicated the entire season trying to establish a favorable stance on these teams (and Duke, but that’s a separate matter), and we anticipate a profitable return,” Circa Sports race & sportsbook manager Chase Michaelson communicated to ESPN via electronic mail. “I would view Arizona or Michigan as superb outcomes. Illinois is unfavorable, UConn is more detrimental.”
Michaelson further mentions that attention on Illinois has grown throughout their tournament journey, with BetMGM also recording its highest total wagered (38.1%) supporting the Illini from the Sweet 16 onwards.
For the semifinal matchups, Arizona initially was a marginal 1.5-point preferred team over Michigan, yet that spread has subsequently reversed to Michigan -1.5. Conversely, Illinois opened at -2.5 against UConn and has held that stance amid initial wagers.
DraftKings indicates initial wagering activity supporting the Huskies against the Illini, with the bulk of wagers and total amount staked on UConn’s outright win odds and point differential; theScore Bet also observes a greater number of slips favoring UConn +2.5, although there’s a skew in total money wagered favoring Illinois -2.5. Arizona-Michigan is considerably more uncertain at this juncture, with scant agreement among bettors on who will prevail or beat the spread.
“This is as exceptionally tight as it can get,” stated Michaelson. “These are two of the finest squads we’ve witnessed in a considerable period, displaying a combination of professional-level aptitude, collegiate seasoned play, and strategic guidance… Typically, either of these teams would probably be overwhelming favorites to secure the championship at this point, but they are compelled to face off.”