Israel Navigates Complex Coalition Negotiations After Inconclusive Election

Following an inconclusive general election held on Tuesday, Israeli political leaders are engaging in critical discussions to determine the country’s next government. This week, representatives from various political parties will present their recommendations for Prime Minister to President Isaac Herzog, who is tasked with bestowing the mandate to form a governing coalition.

The President’s residence will host live-streamed meetings starting Wednesday, where politicians from eleven distinct parties will make their cases. These parties represent a broad spectrum of Israeli society, including secular liberals, ultra-Orthodox Jews, and Arab citizens. The process is a fundamental step in Israel’s parliamentary democracy, where no single party has ever achieved an outright majority, making coalition-building a perennial necessity.

The Political Landscape and Key Contenders

Most party leaders are expected to endorse either long-serving right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu or his primary center-right rival, Gadi Eisenkot. The recent election, however, did not provide a clear majority for either man’s bloc within the 120-member Parliament, known as the Knesset. This outcome signals that the nation is likely to face weeks, if not months, of intricate negotiations among the various parties and their elected lawmakers.

Behind the scenes, intense political maneuvering is already underway. Strategists and party officials are exploring potential pathways to achieve a parliamentary majority of 61 seats. This often involves making significant compromises and potentially backtracking on promises made to voters during the election campaign. Nevo Cohen, a political strategist who managed the 2022 election campaign for National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, characterized the current climate as “a game of chicken,” highlighting the high-stakes nature of the negotiations.

Political strategists emphasize that party leaders are not only considering external alliances but also their internal party dynamics. Lior Chorev, who worked on former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s campaign, stated, “They are also checking their internal situation, to see how much room they have to maneuver. They want to know how far they can go.” These internal constraints often dictate the flexibility a party has in making concessions or forming alliances.

The Challenge of Coalition Building

An Israeli opposition official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of ongoing private negotiations, indicated that party leaders are actively discerning each other’s “red lines” – non-negotiable policy positions or demands. Concurrently, they are drafting legislative plans in anticipation of the Knesset’s swearing-in, expected this week.

The coalition talks are exceptionally delicate, as a failure to form a stable government could easily trigger another round of elections, a frequent occurrence in Israeli politics. Izhar Shay, a former centrist lawmaker, underscored this fragility, explaining that politicians must be acutely aware of how any deals or concessions might be perceived by their electorate, especially if new elections are called unexpectedly. “Because elections might be just around the corner, the sides can’t be open,” Mr. Shay noted. “Anything they say can and will be used against them, so everyone is being very cautious, although a moment must come when the cards are placed on the table.”

The previous election in 2022 saw Benjamin Netanyahu return to power with a relatively strong 64-seat majority, enabling him to form what many described as Israel’s most far-right government to date. This time, the electoral results have yielded a considerably more complex arithmetic.

Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc, encompassing his Likud party and its traditional allies, secured 53 seats, a decrease from his previous performance. Gadi Eisenkot’s center-left aligned bloc garnered 48 seats. A notable development in this election was the surging turnout among Israel’s Arab citizens, which resulted in the two main Arab parties collectively securing a historic 19 seats in the Knesset, significantly altering the balance of power.

Paths to Power: Netanyahu and Eisenkot

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Strategy:

To secure another term as Prime Minister, Mr. Netanyahu would need to attract at least eight lawmakers from Mr. Eisenkot’s alliance. This presents a formidable challenge, as many within Eisenkot’s bloc have publicly vowed not to join a Netanyahu-led government, primarily due to longstanding political and ideological disagreements, as well as ongoing legal proceedings against Mr. Netanyahu.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Potential Routes:

Mr. Eisenkot faces three primary avenues to power, each with its own set of complications:

1. **Peeling off Netanyahu’s Allies:** He could attempt to convince some lawmakers from Netanyahu’s bloc to switch allegiance and join his coalition. This is also a difficult task given the ideological cohesion of Netanyahu’s traditional partners.
2. **Forming a Unity Government with Netanyahu:** Despite Mr. Eisenkot’s prior pronouncements describing Mr. Netanyahu as unfit for office, some of his supporters suggest that a unity government might be a pragmatic choice. Such a partnership could prevent ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties from holding significant governmental power. However, Mr. Netanyahu has a history of being a challenging coalition partner. In 2020, a unity government between Mr. Netanyahu and centrist opposition leader Benny Gantz collapsed in less than a year. Under their agreement, Mr. Netanyahu was to hand over the prime minister’s seat to Mr. Gantz after a set period, but instead dissolved the Knesset and called new elections. Mr. Shay, who was a lawmaker in Mr. Gantz’s party at the time, recounted, “We thought we were doing the right thing, and in the end Netanyahu cheated us.” This historical precedent creates a significant trust deficit.
3. **Relying on the Arab Bloc:** To form a government without Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Eisenkot would most likely need to secure the support of Arab parties. The relatively pragmatic Raam party, which secured eight seats, could be a key partner. The Joint List, with eleven seats, is less likely to formally join a governing coalition but could potentially provide external support by blocking no-confidence votes in the Knesset, allowing for a “minority government” to function with fewer than 61 seats. This option, however, carries the significant risk of alienating parts of Mr. Eisenkot’s own base, as some prominent figures, such as Avigdor Lieberman, a vocal opponent of Mr. Netanyahu, have repeatedly vowed not to join any government that relies on Arab factions.

Controversy Surrounding Arab Voter Turnout

In the aftermath of the election, Mr. Netanyahu made public claims that Arab citizens were “stealing the election,” and his Likud party alleged widespread tampering without providing substantiating evidence. Election officials, including the Central Elections Committee, have repeatedly stated there was no evidence of systematic interference in the vote. Analysts, including Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum, suggest that Mr. Netanyahu’s racially charged campaign rhetoric aimed to discredit any potential attempt by Mr. Eisenkot to engage Arab parties as legitimate partners in a governing coalition.

An incident that emerged on Thursday further fueled this controversy. Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, who oversees the country’s elections committee, issued a letter stating he had received intelligence indicating potential “improper influence through foreign funding” in the elections. Justice Sohlberg did not elaborate on the intelligence or provide evidence, and he explicitly stated he “could not attest to the veracity of the suspicions.” Nevertheless, he authorized the head of Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security agency, to investigate the claims.

The Likud party swiftly capitalized on this, issuing a statement asserting that Arab parties had “stolen the elections in Israel.” The statement incorrectly cited Justice Sohlberg’s letter, falsely claiming it had reported that “foreign officials have bribed voters on behalf of the Arab parties.”

Three days later, Justice Sohlberg issued a clarification, explicitly stating that there was no reason to “doubt the votes cast by Arab citizens.” Despite this official clarification, the unsubstantiated claim that Arab parties had tainted the elections had already become a prominent talking point within right-wing circles. On Sunday, the Likud party again denounced the election results, declaring that a “black cloud” was hovering over the vote, perpetuating doubts about its legitimacy.