Simply three weeks in the past, Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz had been topped French Open champions — and each are among the many favorites once more as Wimbledon begins Monday.
Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion on the All England Membership — may he change into the fifth man within the Open period to attain a three-peat at Wimbledon? Or will Jannik Sinner avenge his French Open closing loss to Alcaraz to win his first Grand Slam title on grass?
Gauff, in the meantime, has now gained two main titles however has by no means made it previous the fourth spherical at Wimbledon. And the ladies’s discipline is broad open — the previous eight Wimbledon titles have been gained by completely different girls.
Might Aryna Sabalenka win her first Wimbledon title? Or will Iga Swiatek bounce again from a troublesome yr to assert the crown?
And what about Novak Djokovic? Might he one way or the other win a record-breaking twenty fifth Grand Slam title?
Our specialists weigh in on these urgent questions and extra.
How will Gauff observe up her French Open title?
D’Arcy Maine: Gauff arrives at Wimbledon — the place she has been as beloved as nearly any participant since her breakthrough on the occasion in 2019 — brimming with confidence and self-belief and positively may very well be able to have her finest outcome on the event.
However it’s not going to be straightforward. Regardless of her auspicious debut six years in the past on the All England Membership wherein she reached the fourth spherical, she has by no means superior previous that time and misplaced in her opening-round match in her lone grass-court lead-in occasion in Berlin earlier this month.
And, maybe most significantly, she is in an extremely powerful quarter of the draw and will face a lot of difficult opponents, together with Dayana Yastremska within the first spherical, potential second- and third-round conferences with former Australian Open champions Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin (who upset her at Wimbledon in 2023), grass standout Liudmila Samsonova within the fourth spherical and both five-time main victor Iga Swiatek or 2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina within the quarterfinals. So, that is a tall order and I am frankly exhausted simply typing all of that. Gauff definitely may win all of these matches, however it appears unlikely she is going to win main title No. 3 in the course of the fortnight.
Invoice Connelly: Gauff is unquestionably to the purpose the place it will not be a shock if she gained any single event — her protection and velocity are all the time elite, as is her potential to grind out wins when issues threaten to go wayward. However her draw has so many landmines, and she or he’s solely 9-6 on grass over the previous two years. Actually, even together with that preliminary upset of Venus Williams six years in the past, she’s simply 7-9 all time towards top-50 gamers on grass, together with three straight losses. She’ll possible need to get previous three top-50 gamers simply to get to Rybakina or Swiatek within the quarterfinals. That seems like a bit an excessive amount of to ask.
Simon Cambers: This might go one among two methods. Both Gauff goes to Wimbledon feeling as if she will be able to do something, buoyed by the arrogance of profitable at Roland Garros, or she’ll be exhausted, mentally, and lose early. It is a humorous one, this. In some methods, she needs to be excessive on confidence after profitable the French Open and there isn’t any doubt that she’ll be strolling even taller after popping out on high in Paris.
However in one other manner, I really feel as if she by no means actually performed her finest at Roland Garros, and whereas that is additionally her factor, doing what it takes to win even when she’s not enjoying nice tennis, on grass, the place the ball can be flashing round sooner than it does on clay, she will not have a lot time to rise up to hurry, particularly if any a part of her sport is malfunctioning.
If she will be able to serve effectively, then she’ll give herself an opportunity of doing effectively, as a result of she strikes nice and competes in addition to anybody. However her draw may be very powerful; Dayana Yastremska is not any pushover first up, Sofia Kenin or Taylor Townsend is perhaps awkward within the third spherical after which Daria Kasatkina within the fourth and both Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina can be ultratough within the quarters. If she will be able to get to Week 2, she’ll be exhausting to beat however that will not be straightforward.
If there’s one other epic Alcaraz vs. Sinner conflict, who will prevail?
Maine: At this stage, I’ll need to go along with latest historical past and take Alcaraz. He has gained eight of their 12 profession conferences, together with the previous 5. Sinner hasn’t crushed Alcaraz — on any floor, in any spherical of any event — since 2023 and has defeated him solely as soon as (three years in the past) with a title on the road.
Sinner is No. 1 on the earth for good motive and might beat everybody else, however Alcaraz appears to be his kryptonite. For now, anyway. (However I am going to reserve my Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova comparability for a later date.) And, since Alcaraz is the two-time defending Wimbledon champion and coming off one more grass title at Queen’s Membership, and Sinner has superior solely as soon as to the semifinals on the All England Membership, it definitely feels as if the chances can be in Alcaraz’s favor once more.
Connelly: Alcaraz higher hope it is him. We have entered a interval the place it feels as if he’ll be the favourite within the natural-surface Slams (French Open, Wimbledon), and Sinner would be the favourite on exhausting courts (US Open, Australian Open). However clearly that French Open closing was as whilst attainable — complete factors: Sinner 193, Alcaraz 192 — and had Sinner gained principally yet another level on the proper time, we might be speaking about him having an opportunity at a calendar-year Slam and ripping off a “Roger Federer, 2004-07” run of Slams.
Alcaraz is unquestionably the favourite, each as a result of he is much more confirmed on grass and since Sinner might need to get previous Djokovic on what’s Djokovic’s finest floor and Sinner’s worst. However … Sinner appears to be figuring issues out.
Cambers: Alcaraz has the pedigree on grass, having gained the title in every of the previous two years, even when Sinner did win their solely earlier battle on the floor, at Wimbledon in 2022. Every thing is dependent upon how shortly Sinner is ready to recover from what occurred in Paris. He appears the type of one that can compartmentalize, who can rationalize that event as a very good one, a step ahead, even when others can be crumbling after failing on three match factors in a Slam closing. However it’s exhausting to see him being at his finest once more simply but, particularly on a floor which, in concept, can provide him points.
Alcaraz can be drained, too, however as he confirmed at Queen’s, when he got here by means of a bunch of tight matches to win the title, he’ll enhance because the event progresses. With a very good draw early, he can ease into the occasion after which will strengthen as the larger matches arrive. In the event that they do meet once more right here, meaning it is the ultimate and also you’d have to present Alcaraz the sting, mentally, merely due to what occurred in Paris.
Can Djokovic set the Grand Slam file at Wimbledon?
Maine: Can he? Sure. Will he? That I am not so positive of. However I do imagine Wimbledon is his finest likelihood of claiming the elusive twenty fifth main title due to his success on the event and his expertise on grass, which stays a difficult floor for a lot of of his youthful friends. His path to a seventh consecutive closing may very well be troublesome with British favourite Jack Draper as a possible quarterfinal opponent and Sinner as his possible semifinal foe. However whilst Sinner defeated him in the identical spherical in Paris, this assembly would really feel much more even on grass. And if Djokovic had been to advance, he may arrange the last word rematch with Alcaraz.
Djokovic would haven’t any scarcity of motivation and perhaps, simply perhaps, he may pull off a efficiency just like that he displayed within the gold medal match towards Alcaraz on the Paris Olympics final yr. As he has hinted about retirement within the close to future, I am unable to think about a extra good farewell for Djokovic at his favourite and most revered main.
Connelly: Contemplating Alcaraz positive appears to have surpassed him on grass (that was fairly the pummeling in final yr’s Wimbledon closing), and contemplating he’ll in all probability need to beat each Sinner and Alcaraz, it looks like loads to ask, yeah.
But when it should occur, it should occur at Wimbledon, and I used to be actually impressed with how Djokovic performed at Roland Garros. It wasn’t simply that he reached the semifinals — he made the quarterfinals whereas enjoying with a torn meniscus the yr earlier than. It is that he was in a extremely good rhythm from the very begin of the event. He gained 4 matches with out dropping a set, and he manhandled Alexander Zverev within the quarterfinals. He could not work out methods to take a set from an in-form Sinner, however on grass he would possibly discover an additional edge or two.
Cambers: It is his finest likelihood, that is for positive. I assumed Djokovic really performed rather well towards Sinner within the semifinals in Paris however on that floor, with simply that cut up second extra time for Sinner to load up his massive groundstrokes, it simply wasn’t attainable for Djokovic, not at 38 years previous. Grass offers Djokovic extra of a possibility; not solely does he transfer higher than most on it, his serve, nonetheless criminally underrated, will get that bit extra buy and is much more efficient.
Motivation can be larger at Wimbledon than anyplace else. It is solely a yr since Djokovic reached the ultimate and that was when he had simply undergone knee surgical procedure. There’s little distinction between being 37 and 38, and he is aware of higher than anybody what must be completed. One other win would give him Slam No. 25, but in addition equal Roger Federer on eight Wimbledon titles, which is one thing I am positive would give him large satisfaction.
However along with giving up greater than 15 years to 2 of the fittest gamers on the earth, his massive downside now could be that he’ll in all probability need to beat each Sinner and Alcaraz to win it, in addition to Draper within the quarterfinals. That’s in all probability an excessive amount of.
Which participant may shock within the subsequent two weeks?
Maine: I want I may say shock French Open semifinalist Lois Boisson, however she misplaced within the first spherical of qualifying as a result of, you already know, tennis. However there are fairly a number of under-the-radar gamers who’re able to pulling off massive upsets and making deep runs. It feels bizarre to say somebody who gained the title simply two years in the past, however Marketa Vondrousova is unseeded — as she was in 2023 — and was sidelined for a lot of the spring due to a shoulder damage. However she thrives on grass and gained her first title since her Wimbledon triumph this month in Berlin behind a number of spectacular wins. She would probably face Sabalenka within the third spherical, however she handily defeated her 6-2, 6-4 within the Berlin semis and will definitely do it once more.
Honorable point out right here to Alexandra Eala, who reached the ultimate in Eastbourne this week, and will stun defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (who withdrew from Eastbourne due to a thigh damage) within the first spherical.
Connelly: On the lads’s facet, my eyes instantly go to Zverev’s quarter, simply the almost certainly quarter to provide a shock run. Taylor Fritz has an honest draw if he can get previous big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard within the first spherical, and if Matteo Berrettini is ever going to discover a enjoyable rhythm once more, it’s going to be right here. However let’s go along with Gabriel Diallo. The 23-year-old Canadian gained at Hertogenbosch, beating three top-40 opponents within the course of, and his straight-sets win over Francisco Cerundolo on the French Open was one other trace at an enormous, versatile sport. He’ll need to take down Fritz within the second spherical to make an enormous run, however he has it in him.
On the ladies’s facet, Jasmine Paolini’s quarter might be the almost certainly to provide a shock, and … I am sorry, I am unable to assist it. I am simply going to maintain choosing Naomi Osaka to make a run till it occurs. Grass will not be her finest floor, and she or he once more acquired a poor draw — she might need to face No. 5 Zheng Qinwen within the second spherical. She has misplaced 4 straight matches to top-20 opponents, however three of the 4 went deep into the third set. She’s actually near a breakthrough.
Cambers: I’ll say Berrettini. I do know he is a former finalist at Wimbledon, however he has been unfortunate with accidents since and probably not been in a position to construct the type of momentum that in any other case would have made him an actual risk to go deep. If he can steer clear of one other damage, and I admit it is a massive if, he’s in Zverev’s part, a winnable match for him, which may propel him proper by means of to the final eight, the place a matchup with Fritz would give him a real likelihood of creating the final 4 once more.
Which first-round matchup are you most enthusiastic about?
Connelly: “Joao Fonseca versus whoever” is often a reasonably watchable possibility, and the 18-year-old Fonseca drew an fascinating participant in Jacob Fearnley, who returns effectively and stretched Djokovic fairly a bit within the second spherical final yr. And Fritz vs. Mpetschi Perricard ought to produce some critical fireworks.
On the ladies’s facet, Kenin faces Townsend (every has scored a pair of straight-sets wins over the opposite), and we have now a pair of latest champions going through off with Vondrousova v. McCartney Kessler. Vondrousova clearly has extra Slam expertise and regarded spectacular in beating three top-12 opponents to win Berlin final week, however Kessler additionally beat 4 top-50 girls to win at Nottingham. She seems to be very a lot at residence on grass and in addition practically beat Zheng at Queen’s Membership.
Cambers: I am additionally wanting ahead to the battle between Fonseca and Fearnley. Each males have shot up the rankings previously yr and Fearnley’s excellent angle is taking him a great distance. However Fonseca has already proven he has the expertise to go proper to the highest, if issues go effectively for him, and although his grass-court expertise may be very restricted, he has energy, poise and actual perception.
My second one is the all-American conflict between Kenin and Townsend. Kenin is the favourite on kind however with that depraved lefty serve and deft hand abilities, Townsend has the sport to actually unsettle her on grass. Plus, she gained three matches in qualifying to make the principle draw, so she has momentum.
Maine: Is it me or does it really feel as if there are such a lot of marquee opening-round matchups? I discussed the Eala-Krejcikova match within the earlier query and that is still a can’t-miss for me, however sentimentally talking it is exhausting to not highlight what may very well be Petra Kvitova’s closing Wimbledon match. The 2-time event champion introduced she can be retiring later this season and has to play No. 10 seed Emma Navarro within the opening spherical. If anybody can discover some last-minute Wimbledon magic, it must be Kvitova and this has potential to be a memorable outing.
On the lads’s facet, I am with Simon and Invoice: that Fonseca-Fearnley conflict may very well be epic, and the followers will undoubtedly present up for each gamers in an enormous manner, it doesn’t matter what courtroom they’re enjoying on.