The US presidential administration has cautioned Iran that it would be “highly prudent” to forge an agreement with the US, as Donald Trump escalated the dispatch of a considerable military contingent to the Middle East.
As friction intensifies between Washington and Tehran, the cost of Brent crude oil has surged by 6 percent over the past two days, reaching approximately $71.50 per barrel, nearing a six-month peak.
The United States has been channeling additional military resources toward the area in recent days, following Trump’s directive for one of the largest mobilizations in the region since the 2003 US-led incursion into Iraq, as he contemplates the possibility of assailing the Islamic republic.
A second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, was positioned off the North African coast and progressively moving closer to the Middle East, while various types of aircraft, spanning from heavy transport to command-and-control planes, have traveled from the US towards Europe and the Middle East.
During the three days leading up to February 18, around 39 US KC-135 refuelling aircraft broadcast their locations during eastbound flights from the US into Europe, according to data from Flightradar24.
This pattern seemed to mirror flight movements preceding the US’s brief engagement in Israel’s conflict with Iran in June 2025, when Flightradar data showed at least 30 military tanker aircraft, including KC-135s, flying from the US to Europe. Days later, the US bombarded the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities.
American media outlets this week cited US officials stating that the military possesses the capability to strike Iran as early as this weekend, should Trump opt to command an assault. Nevertheless, they reported that the president had not yet reached a verdict.
Israel advanced its security cabinet session to Thursday, having initially scheduled it for Sunday, as reported by an individual familiar with the matter. They also indicated that US secretary of state Marco Rubio was anticipated to visit Israel the following week.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt informed journalists on Wednesday that Trump had been “exceptionally clear” that diplomacy “is invariably his primary recourse.” She added that “Iran would be very judicious to finalize an arrangement with President Trump.”
“He consistently considers what serves the paramount interests of the United States of America, of our armed forces, of the American populace, and that is how he arrives at decisions concerning military interventions of any nature,” Leavitt articulated.
The military augmentation has persisted while the US conducted two rounds of indirect discussions with Iran regarding its nuclear program. Following the most recent negotiations in Geneva on Tuesday, Leavitt mentioned that there had been “some degree of advancement, but we remain significantly divergent on certain points.”
Trump has been threatening to attack Iran since it brutally suppressed extensive anti-regime demonstrations last month, resulting in thousands of fatalities.
The United States has stationed sufficient air and naval combat power in the Middle East to sustain a weeks-long operation against the Islamic republic, according to analysts.
Washington maintains 10 warships in the region’s waters, encompassing the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and six destroyers. Additionally, it has two destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea. Approximately 40,000 American service members are deployed in the Middle East.
The aircraft carrier strike groups introduce thousands of troops and dozens of combat planes to the vicinity. Among the aircraft on the carriers are F-35 and F-18 fighter jets, electronic warfare planes, airborne early warning aircraft, and command-and-control planes.
The US has also deployed Thaad and Patriot air defense systems to bases in the region, as Iran pledged to retaliate against any offensive, menacing to target American installations in the Middle East as well as Israel.
Trump on Wednesday declared that the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia, situated in the Indian Ocean, could be utilized in any assault on Iran. He further noted that the UK’s Fairford air base could also fulfill a role. Both bases feature the extensive runways necessary for launching bombers.
Trump could target Iran’s air defenses and missile initiative, including launchers and storage depots, according to former US national security officials.
He could also aim for high-ranking regime security authorities, the Revolutionary Guards, conventional military units, command and control hubs, and supply depots. The US president might also target Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, along with potential successors and other senior executives, the former US security officials indicated.
Last June, the US briefly joined Israel’s 12-day conflict against the republic to bomb Iran’s primary nuclear installations. Israel diminished Iran’s military capacities during that conflict, but Tehran is believed to have been rebuilding its missile capabilities.
The US possesses eight permanent bases and 11 other military locations in the Middle East, all of which would be susceptible to reprisals from the Iranian regime.
After Tuesday’s discussions in Geneva, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated there had been “positive advancement” in the negotiations. However, he also cautioned that this did not imply an accord would be reached soon.
“We ultimately arrived at a general understanding regarding some tenets to guide our future endeavors,” he affirmed.
A US official similarly indicated after the talks that headway had been achieved and that Iran would return in two weeks with “detailed proposals to address some of the outstanding discrepancies in our stance.”
Iranian officials have declared their desire for a settlement but also their readiness for warfare. The Revolutionary Guards this week conducted a naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime trade artery through which approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne crude petroleum transits.
That was succeeded by Iranian and Russian naval maneuvers in the Islamic republic’s southern waters on Thursday.
“These drills convey a singular message: Iran’s coasts are no suitable ground for the adversary’s exploits,” the Quds, a conservative online news outlet, penned on Thursday. “The exercise with Russia will aid in thwarting the enemy’s psychological campaign.”
Supplementary reporting by David Djambazov and James Shotter