Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum evaluation, says an increase in fuel costs from a possible Iranian shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz “wouldn’t final lengthy.”
Motorists do not have to fret a couple of huge spike in costs on the fuel pump but, in keeping with trade analysts.
Oil costs, which account for greater than half of what shoppers pay on the pump, fell Monday morning after quickly surging Sunday following U.S. strikes on three key Iranian nuclear websites over the weekend.
The worth of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sat round a one-year-high, whereas world benchmark Brent crude neared a five-month-high final week because the battle between Israel and Iran intensified. As of Monday, WTI has dropped to round $73 a barrel and Brent is sitting round $76 a barrel.
GasBuddy’s head of petroleum evaluation, Patrick De Haan, stated that is excellent news for these on the pump. “Knee jerk” reactions available in the market are typical after main exercise.
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“Motorists will doubtless proceed seeing a gradual however regular enhance in fuel costs for now,” De Haan stated. “You do not actually have to fret about huge spikes simply but.”
Prospects refuel at a Love’s fuel station in Dallas, Texas, on Could 7, 2025. (Shelby Tauber/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
He estimated that the rise over the course of the week will likely be between 10 and 15 cents, saying it is just like what shoppers noticed final week.
Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow expects fuel costs to have solely a “modest” rise of three to five cents over the approaching days.
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Nonetheless, Lipow stated that any retaliatory assault by Iran might spook the oil market, resulting in far greater costs.
Oil costs fell Monday after quickly surging Sunday following U.S. strikes on three key Iranian nuclear websites over the weekend. ( Shelby Tauber/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
The market thinks that China, which purchases over 90% of Iranian oil exports together with important portions of Center Japanese crude oil, will strain Iran to keep away from shutting the Strait of Hormuz, in keeping with Lipow. Iran has threatened to shut the strait to delivery site visitors after the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear services.
“Whereas closing the Strait might not be in Iran’s financial curiosity, if Israel had been to assault their important export facility at Kharg Island, they may,” Lipow stated.
Tankers are seen on the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal alongside the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway by means of which one-fifth of worldwide oil output passes on June 23, 2025. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)
The strait is a essential waterway that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The waterway handles the world’s largest crude oil tankers and is taken into account one of many world’s most essential oil chokepoints, in keeping with the Vitality Info Administration (EIA).
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In 2024, 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 20% of worldwide petroleum liquids consumption, flowed by means of the waterway. There are additionally only a few various choices to maneuver oil out of the strait whether it is closed, in keeping with the EIA.
If oil exports by means of the strait are affected, oil costs might simply hit $100 a barrel, in keeping with Lipow. That may increase gasoline costs by about 75 cents per gallon from latest ranges. There are predictions that oil might rise to between $120 and $130 per barrel. In that case, gasoline costs would rise by $1.25 per gallon.