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A convoy of massive oil tankers is making its way towards Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea shoreline, as the monarchy endeavors swiftly to redirect petroleum shipments confined in the Gulf due to the conflict with Iran.
Roughly thirty vessels, designated as very large crude carriers and each able to transport over 2 million barrels of oil, are en route to the monarchy’s western harbor of Yanbu in the coming days. This marks a significant increase from the long-term average of approximately two per month, as reported by shipbrokers.
These voyages commence after Iranian assaults on ships and infrastructure effectively halted transit in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which nearly all Gulf oil exports previously flowed before the hostilities.
However, this new trajectory presents its own perils. To enter the Red Sea from the south, these tankers will need to navigate the Bab al-Mandab strait, an area where vessels have been targeted in recent years by Yemen’s Houthi insurgents — and which also lies within the strike range of some Iranian missiles.
“Given the interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, there is no other recourse,” stated John Ollett, a cargo specialist at the price-reporting agency Argus. “There have been no Houthi assaults for several months [and] Yanbu remains the sole choice for crude shipments.”
While nations such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have curtailed oil output as their Gulf storage facilities approach capacity, a pipeline connecting Saudi Arabia’s crude-producing eastern region to Yanbu in the west provides the kingdom with a vital export conduit.
The vast majority of the nation’s roughly 7 million barrels per day typically departs from its eastern coast into the Gulf. However, the state oil enterprise Saudi Aramco this week outlined a strategy to dispatch approximately 5 million b/d via the Red Sea.
“Yanbu has experienced a surge in popularity, and for the foreseeable future, that situation is likely to persist,” remarked Matthew Wright, lead freight analyst at the data platform Kpler.
He further elaborated that after the Houthis suspended their attacks last year, ships had “gradually” commenced traversing the Red Sea. Concurrently, a spate of assaults on tankers this week served as “incontrovertible proof . . . that Iran possesses the capability to strike vessels and is doing so” near the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship proprietors dispatching tankers to the Red Sea port include Dynacom Tankers and Minerva Marine, companies respectively owned by Greek magnates George Prokopiou and Andreas Martinos. Both firms have sent vessels through the Strait of Hormuz this month, according to ship brokers. The group also comprises Norwegian-born industrialist John Fredriksen’s Frontline and the Chinese state-owned conglomerate Cosco.
The brokers indicated that many of these ships were fulfilling “contractual cargoes,” which are long-term agreements to transport crude oil from Saudi Arabia to Asian destinations. The involved parties had renegotiated their arrangements so that oil could be moved from Yanbu instead of ports within the Gulf.
The majority of these consignments were destined for China, with “a few for India and a couple for Korea,” according to one broker.
The brokers’ assessments of vessels bound for Yanbu were derived from transponder signals and deals finalized this month to uplift crude from the Red Sea port.
Dynacom, Minerva, Frontline, and Cosco did not immediately provide a response to inquiries for comment.
In the two years following the October 7 Hamas incursions into Israel in 2023, Houthi combatants significantly diminished maritime traffic through the Red Sea by assaulting ships traversing the Bab al-Mandab, operating from their vantage point on the south-western extremity of the Arabian Peninsula.
The faction, which had asserted its actions were in solidarity with Hamas, in November indicated a cessation of its attacks on commercial vessels after a truce was established in Gaza.
However, tankers were still undertaking a “considerable hazard” by passing through Bab al-Mandab, observed Martin Kelly, head of advisory at the maritime intelligence entity EOS Risk.
Theoretically, vessels loading in western Saudi Arabia could journey northward through the Suez Canal, but such a route would extend transit time by weeks — and incur substantial expenses — for their voyages to Asia.
The more immediate peril, noted Kelly, was the threat of Iranian bombardments, which possess the capability to reach the Red Sea and beyond.
“Everything is a potential factor when it pertains to energy resources in the Middle East,” stated Wright. “One must simply continue: every loading port that can handle a cargo is being utilized to its maximum capacity.”