From Wemby to Reaves: Debating 4 early-season NBA storylines

Two of the possible contenders within the East are flailing, whereas two within the West are scorching sizzling. In the meantime, an vital awards race has already turned upside-down.

The 2025-26 NBA season is a mere two weeks previous, however that is an ideal time to start out diving into crucial numbers and narratives surrounding these early surprises.

ESPN nationwide analysts Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton debate the largest early-season questions on Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Trae Younger, Austin Reaves, Cooper Flagg and extra.

Pelton: The Spurs seem like the younger workforce that’s taking the leap. Beginning with an opening-night drubbing of the Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio began 5-0 for the primary time in franchise historical past, and Victor Wembanyama charges because the league’s second-best participant on a per-possession foundation in my wins above substitute participant metric.

The caveat right here is the schedule. Thursday’s showdown with the fast-starting Miami Warmth was the Spurs’ first matchup towards a 2025 playoff workforce, and so they will not face an opponent who received greater than a single playoff sport final spring till their NBA Cup group opener towards the Houston Rockets subsequent Friday. Do you purchase San Antonio’s begin, Zach, or do you should see them beat any individual their very own dimension? (Which could not be anyone, in Wemby’s case.)

Kram: The best reply is that so long as Wembanyama continues to play like an MVP candidate, the Spurs’ ceiling is as tall as he’s. His PER by six video games is 30.7. Earlier than this season, there have been 35 situations in NBA historical past wherein a participant posted a participant effectivity ranking above 30, and on common, their groups received 53.5 video games.

However the NBA’s expertise pool is so deep now that one transcendent star is not all the time ample to propel a workforce to the highest of the standings. These 35 situations embrace current examples wherein the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook had been caught in the course of the standings regardless of super particular person seasons.

That risk stays probably for the Spurs, as the standard of the supporting forged surrounding Wembanyama stays unclear. Reigning Rookie of the 12 months Stephon Fort is averaging 20 factors per sport on elevated effectivity whereas supplying wonderful protection. However guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are each harm, as are Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk and Jeremy Sochan within the frontcourt.

San Antonio’s second-ranked protection seems actual: Led by Defensive Participant of the 12 months favourite Wembanyama, the Spurs are permitting the second-fewest factors within the paint, and they need to get higher opponent taking pictures luck because the season continues. Spurs opponents rank third within the NBA with a 39% mark from 3-point vary.

However I am extra skeptical of their ninth-ranked offense, no less than till Fox returns and we see the Spurs’ units and rotations with a ball-dominant All-Star on the level.

Pelton: I believe that stat about 30+ PER seasons is price investigating. There are a few causes that form of particular person manufacturing is much less significant now. First, despite the fact that PER is pegged to a constant common of 15, heliocentric offenses imply we’re seeing extra gamers than ever high that mark.

Between 1963-64 and Michael Jordan’s retirement from the Chicago Bulls in 1998, David Robinson was the one different participant to high a 30 PER whereas qualifying for NBA per-game leaderboards in line with Sports activities-Reference.com. (Jordan did it 4 instances.) In the meantime, three gamers did so in each 2021-22 and 2024-25. Antetokounmpo and Jokic had been a part of each teams, rounded out by first Joel Embiid after which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

So the bar is simpler to clear now. Past that, gamers with a 30-plus PER by LeBron James in 2012-13 averaged 40.1 minutes per workforce sport. Since then, due to rising accidents, lowering minutes averages and cargo administration, gamers with 30-plus PERs common simply 34.0 minutes per workforce sport. So sure, a single star is much less significant in wins and losses phrases than it as soon as was.

Who’s the most effective bounce-back candidate within the East?

Kram: The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meet in Atlanta on Tuesday evening, in a rematch of a 111-107 Hawks victory in October, and each groups may use a win. The Southeast Division foes had excessive hopes coming into the season as younger groups on the rise in an Jap Convention in flux; they ranked third and fourth within the East in ESPN’s preseason rankings.

However after two weeks of video games, each the Hawks and Magic look farther away from competition than they did final season, when each appeared within the play-in match. The Hawks have suffered from key absences and are 3-4 with a minus-2.9 internet ranking, whereas the 3-4 Magic rank twenty second in offensive ranking and thirtieth in 3-point makes regardless of the addition of Desmond Bane.

Kevin, which ostensible contender do you imagine has the most effective probability to bounce again and climb the still-wide-open Jap Convention standings?

Pelton: Once we first conceived this matter again in September, the concept was that we disagreed on which of Atlanta and Orlando could be the rising power within the East. (Zach preferred the Hawks, whereas I used to be a Magic believer.) Now it is wanting like we’d each be flawed?

I nonetheless suppose Orlando can proper the ship. The Magic’s largest challenge throughout their 1-4 begin was getting outshot on a nightly foundation, and GeniusIQ’s quantified shot chance metric — which estimates the efficient field-goal share we should always count on primarily based on the situation and kind of shot, and distance to close by defenders — says they have been taking higher pictures than their opponents, when accounting for participant potential.

Bane, a 41% profession 3-point shooter, will not hold hitting 26% and Tyus Jones will shoot higher than an efficient 42% when accounting for the added worth of 3s (he was at 57% eFG% the previous two seasons). Am I flawed to maintain the Orlando religion?

Kram: Even past higher taking pictures, religion within the Magic requires a robust perception in Banchero as a real famous person and No. 1 possibility. He seems the half, and his floor stats have all the time been robust. However what does it say when the Magic have been higher with Banchero off the courtroom in each season of his profession?

This is not a matter of taking pictures luck or substitution patterns; it is a constant sample in an more and more giant pattern of minutes. In accordance with PBP Stats, when Banchero has performed with out Franz Wagner of their careers, the Magic have a minus-7.7 internet ranking. However the Magic thrive when Wagner performs with out Banchero, with a plus-7.0 internet ranking.

Superior stats that incorporate on/off information conclude that Banchero is merely common total, slightly than an All-NBA candidate in ready. I do not suppose Orlando can seize a high seed if that is the case.

Pelton: It says that Wagner is a secret famous person, naturally! Extra severely, choosing the Magic to contend within the East was premised on extra taking pictures unlocking higher-quality pictures for Banchero. In accordance with the player-neutral model of GeniusIQ’s metrics, quantified shot high quality, simply 27% of gamers who tried no less than 750 pictures final 12 months took tougher ones than Banchero.

But Banchero’s shot high quality has barely improved within the early going, and his playmaking is down. He is averaging simply 7.7 potential assists per sport, in line with NBA Superior Stats, down from 9.4 final 12 months. It is as much as Orlando’s teaching employees to generate extra ball motion for the good thing about Banchero and everybody else.

To this point, we have centered on the Magic, however what do you make of Atlanta’s sluggish begin after a much-hyped offseason?

Kram: The most important concern in Atlanta is well being. I nonetheless imagine on this workforce at full power: Trae Younger makes for an environment friendly offense all by himself, and his teammates are all good-to-great defenders who can compensate for his deficiency on that finish of the ground.

Sadly, the Hawks have scarcely been at full power this season, and will not for some time longer. Dyson Daniels is the one starter who hasn’t already missed time this season, and Younger is out for no less than a month after spraining his proper knee final week. These absences have uncovered the Hawks’ shallow roster, whose high quality drops off dramatically after the highest seven or eight gamers. (At the very least Mouhamed Gueye seems like a possible affect participant off the bench.)

As an instance this problem, the Hawks’ high three gamers — Younger, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis — have shared the courtroom for simply 42 minutes this 12 months. In distinction, Orlando’s Banchero-Wagner-Bane trio has 144 minutes collectively.

Granted, these 42 minutes have not gone nice, because the Hawks’ rebuilt roster is clearly studying to play collectively, and their Twenty fifth-ranked offense is specifically hassle throughout Younger’s long-term absence. However I believe their ceiling stays excessive, if solely they will all get wholesome and achieve some familiarity and continuity earlier than the postseason.

Kram: One other workforce sitting comfortably close to the highest of the Western Convention standings is the Los Angeles Lakers, whose 6-2 begin is a shock on condition that Doncic and James have mixed for 4 appearances. However Reaves’ breakout has buoyed the Lakers in his star teammates’ absences. In three video games with out Doncic, Reaves scored 51 towards the Kings, 41 towards the Path Blazers and 28 factors — the final that includes a buzzer-beating game-winner over Minnesota — and he is averaging 31.1 factors and 9.3 assists per sport total.

A lot of the dialogue round this leveling-up has centered on Reaves’ upcoming unrestricted free company — how a lot cash he may command subsequent summer season, and what it would imply for the Lakers’ funds and team-building. But when Reaves is wherever close to this good offensively, that additionally carries significance proper now; in spite of everything, Doncic has a historical past of creating deep playoff runs with a succesful co-star within the backcourt.

Might Reaves play a job much like the one Jalen Brunson and Kyrie Irving occupied in Dallas, on journeys to the convention finals and Finals, respectively? James appeared just like the pure No. 2 to Doncic coming into this season, however as he continues to overlook time with sciatica whereas Reaves excels, the NBA’s all-time main scorer is in peril of being Wally Pipped.

Pelton: Irrespective of how nicely Jake LaRavia has performed (I will inform my youngsters this was the Lakers’ huge three), LeBron ought to in all probability begin. Nevertheless, I do suppose taking the ball out of Reaves’ fingers at this level could be a mistake. Doncic (8.7 minutes per sport) is first and Reaves (7.5) sixth within the league this season in time of possession, per NBA Superior Stats.

That is a dramatic change from final season, when James (5.4) spent barely extra time per sport in possession than Reaves (5.2) regardless of each averaging the identical variety of minutes per sport. Actually, Reaves, a 37% profession 3-point shooter, could be efficient off the ball. However he is now proven sufficient shot creation that I believe it is time for James, who’s shot 39% on 3s the previous two seasons, to be primarily a play finisher slightly than a creator when the Lakers’ starters are on the courtroom.

AUSTIN REAVES HITS THE @TISSOT BUZZER-BEATER!!!

🚨⏰ Your Time Defines Your Greatness. pic.twitter.com/sQfb0zr9Nl

— NBA (@NBA) October 30, 2025

Reaves has tried the third-most pictures within the league with out an help alternative this season, per GeniusIQ. And his 57% eFG% on these pictures ranks thirteenth of the 49 gamers with no less than 50 makes an attempt, simply behind Gilgeous-Alexander. (Doncic, at 63%, is third-best on this group.) Final season, James had a 52% eFG% on pictures with out an help alternative, however improved to 67% when there was a possible help.

Kram: I agree that it will make sense for Lakers coach JJ Redick to maintain giving Reaves on-ball alternatives, particularly when Doncic is not on the courtroom. I have been particularly impressed by Reaves’ passing potential and penchant for drawing fouls in these conditions. (Reaves ranks third amongst all gamers this season with 9.3 made free throws per sport — simply behind Doncic, in second place at 10.8.)

Doncic and Reaves may assist lighten James’ workload to keep up his well being all through the remainder of the season, as soon as he returns to the courtroom. Nevertheless it’s additionally vital to notice that there are nonetheless few gamers within the NBA who deserve extra shot makes an attempt than James, even in his 40s. Final season, James made the All-NBA second workforce on the power of an elite mixture of quantity and effectivity. He had a 30% utilization fee and 60% true taking pictures; the one different gamers to hit each marks had been Antetokounmpo and MVP Gilgeous-Alexander.

It isn’t a simple reply, however that is finally drawback for Redick to have. In accordance with the DARKO projection system, Doncic is the third-most-valuable offensive participant within the NBA on a per-possession foundation, whereas Reaves and James are, fittingly, tied in fifteenth place.

Ought to VJ Edgecombe have surpassed Cooper Flagg because the Rookie of the 12 months favourite?

Pelton: I am not frightened in regards to the growth of No. 1 decide Flagg, who’s enjoying out of place for an ill-fitting Mavericks workforce. Nonetheless, Flagg hasn’t been the most efficient lottery decide from Duke so far, with faculty teammate Kon Knueppel averaging 14 PPG on 22-of-51 3-point taking pictures.

That is opened the door for an actual Rookie of the 12 months race, and No. 3 decide Edgecombe has come bursting by just like the Kool-Help Man. Enjoying an unbelievable 39 minutes per sport — no rookie has averaged greater than 38.6 since LeBron in 2003-04 — Edgecombe is averaging 20.3 PPG and 5.0 RPG whereas taking pictures higher than 40% from 3-point vary.

Is the market proper to already think about Edgecombe the Rookie of the 12 months favourite? Or is that too fast to dismiss Flagg, who did have 40 factors and 10 assists in a pair of video games throughout his first weekend as a professional?

Kram: I might go as far as to say Edgecombe is not the one reasonable contender who can steal the Rookie of the 12 months trophy from the presumptive favourite. A part of Flagg’s enchantment was his anticipated all-around contribution — which might match this race particularly nicely as a result of, as you have documented, 35 of the final 38 Rookie of the 12 months awards have gone to the certified participant with the best mixed per-game averages in factors, rebounds and assists. (The exceptions are Amar’e Stoudemire over Yao Ming in 2003, Malcolm Brogdon over Dario Saric in 2017 and Scottie Barnes over Cade Cunningham in 2022. Ming and Saric completed second within the voting, whereas Cunningham completed third.)

However two weeks into the season, Flagg trails Edgecombe by an enormous margin of their mixed averages, and No. 11 decide Cedric Coward (the present chief in superior stats amongst rookies), No. 2 decide Harper, and No. 4 decide Knueppel are shut behind.

Even whereas enjoying level guard, Flagg has produced solely 3.0 assists per sport, and his Mavericks are final within the league in offensive effectivity. Each of these numbers ought to enhance, but when Flagg is not statistically dominant and his workforce is not profitable, then it will be robust to vault him forward of Edgecombe, who may end with higher numbers on a greater workforce.