A portion of the Final Four field is now determined! This past Saturday, Illinois and Arizona secured their places in Indianapolis. The remaining two positions are now up for grabs.
The action commences with Tennessee facing off against the top-ranked Michigan squad, followed by a contest between UConn and Duke, two programs that collectively boast eleven championships.
ESPN’s college basketball correspondents, Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf, offer their forecasts for both matchups, and also analyze the crucial factors for every squad.
2:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello’s forecast: Michigan, 80-68
Medcalf’s forecast: Michigan, 85-69
How Tennessee can progress to the Final Four: For the Vols to reach the national semifinals, a first in their institutional history, they must implement an impeccable strategy. While tactical schemes will be significant in this encounter, they cannot overcome Michigan unless Nate Ament and Ja’Kobi Gillespie deliver a combined display memorable enough for the “One Shining Moment” montage.
Felix Okpara, who has tallied ten blocks across his last three outings, must also contend effectively with the nation’s premier frontcourt. Staying clear of fouls is crucial for him to remain active late in the game. Furthermore, the Vols must control this contest by transforming it into a physical clash under the basket — this is their sole viable path to victory, given their status as the country’s top offensive rebounding squad. Nonetheless, an exceptional performance appears necessary for them to overcome Michigan.
How Michigan can progress to the Final Four: A third-ranked Alabama squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency nationwide attempted 31 shots during the second half of their defeat to Michigan, with 23 of those being from beyond the arc. The Wolverines excel at defending the interior – rival teams convert merely 48.9% of their attempts in the post when facing them, according to Synergy Sports – and simultaneously restrict the shot selections available to their adversaries.
Michigan’s offensive prowess has been almost insurmountable throughout this season. Their imposing lineup has been subdued by only three opponents (Duke, Purdue, Wisconsin). Should the Wolverines manage to curtail follow-up scoring chances for Tennessee, a team leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and compel the Vols to take shots from outside the key, then Michigan might secure its passage to the Final Four. — Medcalf
5:05 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s forecast: UConn, 71-70
Medcalf’s forecast: Duke, 76-64
How UConn can progress to the Final Four: The Huskies have a path to their third national semifinal appearance in four years by dominating Duke inside the key. This hinges on Tarris Reed Jr. steering clear of foul complications. Cameron Boozer ranks 53rd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes – thus, a few early fouls on Reed could prove pivotal in the outcome.
Boozer’s vulnerability lies in turnovers; he committed four during Duke’s pair of defeats this season (against Texas Tech and North Carolina). The Huskies must instigate and exploit these turnovers. Their considerable guard depth and physical stature allow them to badger a less-than-fully-fit Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans on the outside. They must compel Duke to take difficult shots, then prevent offensive lulls similar to the one that caused them to forfeit a 25-6 advantage against Michigan State. Such lapses could prove detrimental when facing the Blue Devils.
How Duke can progress to the Final Four: Evidently, the Blue Devils are not at full strength. Patrick Ngongba II has logged only 29 collective minutes across two NCAA tournament contests since coming back from a right foot fracture that sidelined him for five games. Moreover, despite Foster contributing 11 crucial points in the latter half of their Sweet 16 triumph, he did not resemble the exceptional guard we’ve witnessed earlier in the season. Nevertheless, the Blue Devils can move forward by employing the identical formidable interior strategy that has served them well throughout this postseason.
Since the commencement of the ACC tournament, Duke has converted merely 30% of its attempts from beyond the arc. Concurrently, they have sunk 57% of their shots within the arc and collected 45% of their missed attempts, a statistic ranking among the top five during that period. Despite the Blue Devils’ struggling long-range shooting, they persist in achieving victories by heeding Cameron Boozer’s guidance and dominating the interior. However, they will need to counter Tarris Reed Jr. The Huskies’ towering 6-foot-11 center has recently exerted significant influence on both offense and defense, recording double-doubles in two of his three NCAA tournament appearances to date. — Medcalf