Let us pause briefly to consider something, which I suspect is unprecedented: reflect on the numerous positive developments for the American men’s national squad during the previous global football tournament.
Their premier athlete — arguably the finest in the team’s entire history — performed exceptionally. Christian Pulisic jeopardized his personal well-being to net the decisive goal during the conclusive group stage encounter versus Iran. He was directly involved in every single goal the U.S. created in Qatar, consistently posing a danger. His statistics for both anticipated assists and anticipated goals topped the squad. One could scarcely demand a more impactful contribution.
Timothy Weah provided equilibrium on the opposing flank of the offensive line, netting the initial goal against Wales and continuously challenging the adversary’s defensive depth. The central trio, featuring European-based players Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, and Tyler Adams, formed the squad’s core power – especially apparent when they effectively neutralized England during a group-stage fixture where the Americans vied for ball control aggressively in the opponent’s half.
The wide defenders, Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson, served as crucial catalysts for offensive construction: Dest through his ball distribution and close control, and Robinson through his relentless movement without the ball. Tim Ream, making his World Cup debut at thirty-five, enabled the United States to dictate ball control and initiate plays from their defensive zone in a fashion previously unseen from them at a World Cup. Furthermore, Matt Turner showcased his typical form, despite primarily being a substitute for Arsenal.
Simply put, the premier American footballers performed at their expected elite level. The issue did not stem from an absence of exceptional individual skill. Certainly, Pulisic, McKennie, and their teammates must deliver strong performances this summer for Mauricio Pochettino’s squad to progress significantly, yet the truth remains that these are genuinely gifted athletes who typically excel.
Rather, the true impediment for the Americans in Qatar — and what, apart from sheer fortune, will dictate their progress this summer — was their squad’s reserve strength, or absence of it. All World Cup victors possess considerable squad depth, a quality the USMNT demonstrably lacked four years prior.
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What is the significance of squad depth in the World Cup?
To address this inquiry, I reviewed the sixteen most recent World Cup semifinalist teams.
By 2006, football remained largely entrenched in the responsive tactical landscape shaped by Jose Mourinho and Rafa Benitez; however, by 2010, Pep Guardiola’s ball-dominant strategy had gained ascendancy, and the intense, pressing style of Jurgen Klopp’s gegenpressing was just starting to emerge. The requirements of the sport were considerably distinct in 2006, hence my decision to conclude the examination at that point.
My focus was on the semifinalists as these four squads unequivocally attained success in the competition; subsequently, I examined how each team utilized its reserve players. Stated differently, what was the significance of squad profundity for those teams that excelled in the World Cup?
Firstly, presented below is a comparison of the typical proportion of game time accrued by the twelfth through sixteenth most frequently utilized players among the sixteen semifinalist teams:
Player: Avg. Min. %
12th: 42.6%
13th: 34.6%
14th: 28.8%
15th: 21.9%
16th: 16.9%
Below is the detailed distribution of those figures, broken down by each tournament:
Thus, the deployment of the 12th player has stayed relatively stable across various periods, yet the dependence on players ranking 13th through 16th in terms of minutes has notably escalated. This trend is fueled by two factors: an increasing awareness among coaches that more frequent substitutions are beneficial, and the allowance of five substitutions per match instead of the previous three, a change implemented following the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, these figures contain some statistical ‘noise’ because two of the semifinalist teams eventually compete in a third-place playoff, where they seldom field their complete preferred starting lineup. This circumstance is likely to inflate the playing time for all these individuals. Should we restrict our examination to solely the eight finalists from the preceding four World Cups, the minute distribution appears as follows:
Player: Avg. Min. %
12th: 40.4%
13th: 33.4%
14th: 28.5%
15th: 20.3%
16th: 13.7%
This represents only a minor deviation, yet it shows a marginal reduction in each category.
Regarding the tournament-specific statistics for the finalists:
Naturally, every tournament has possessed its unique peculiarities. The 2010 global football event transpired during South Africa’s winter period. The 2014 World Cup included hydration pauses due to the intense heat in certain Brazilian regions. The 2018 World Cup took place in Russia, and surprisingly… was largely typical? Subsequently, the 2022 tournament in Qatar was contested mid-club season – specifically in December, rather than the customary June.
Considering the probable high temperatures in the United States this summer, the maximum figures from 2022 appear to be the most appropriate benchmarks for our ongoing assessment. These could even prove to be somewhat underestimated.
In Qatar, the French coach Didier Deschamps allocated playing time as follows:
12th: Ibrahima Konaté, Liverpool center back: 44.2%
13th: Youssouf Fofana, Monaco midfielder: 34.1%
14th: Randal Kolo Muani, Eintracht Frankfurt forward: 27.3%
15th: Kingsley Coman, Bayern Munich winger: 25.0%
16th: Marcus Thuram, Inter Milan forward: 22.3%
And this is how it appeared for manager Lionel Scaloni, as he steered Argentina to their third World Cup championship:
12th: Lisandro Martínez, Manchester United center back: 43.6%
13th: Angel Di María, Juventus winger: 42.0%
14th: Lautaro Martínez, Inter Milan forward: 34.5%
15th: Leandro Paredes, Juventus midfielder: 32.5%
16th: Gonzalo Montiel, Sevilla fullback: 17.1%
Securing the World Cup trophy likely necessitates a minimum of four athletes, separate from your primary starting eleven, who participate in 25% or more of the total playing duration. Furthermore, during 2022, nearly all of these individuals were compelled to represent clubs competing in the Champions League or teams of comparable caliber.
What was the USMNT’s standing?
During 2022, Ream, Adams, Turner, Musah, Robinson, Dest, Pulisic, and Weah each participated in no less than 85% of the available playing time. McKennie represented the sole individual from the genuine nucleus whose participation fell beneath that threshold, yet he still featured for 75% of the duration.
Regarding the substitutes’ contingent, frankly, it was rather limited. The following illustrates the USMNT’s player deployment in contrast to that of France and Argentina:
The individuals in question were:
12th: Haji Wright, Antalyaspor striker
13th: Brenden Aaronson, Leeds United wide midfielder
14th: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Celtic defender
15th: Giovanni Reyna, Borussia Dortmund offensive midfielder
16th: Jesús Ferreira, FC Dallas attacker
A contributing factor to the relatively subdued figures for the U.S. is their participation in merely four games, while France and Argentina contested seven, encompassing the memorable championship match that extended to a penalty shootout. It is understandable that head coaches would be compelled to delve further into their squad selections as the cumulative playing time escalated.
One might be inclined to review this situation and attribute fault to U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter for not deploying his team with greater assertiveness — however, upon examining the athletes and their output, it becomes challenging to truly hold him accountable. Wright largely appeared ill-suited, and his score against the Netherlands in the last 16 phase resulted from a fortunate deflection off his heel. Furthermore, the instant against the Netherlands when Aaronson confronted 32-year-old Daley Blind, who was virtually an immobile marker in his professional journey by then, for a one-on-one challenge only to be firmly repelled, remains indelible.
Carter-Vickers entered the Iran fixture and performed admirably, yet he operates as a central defender. Reyna’s relatives sought Berhalter’s dismissal throughout the competition, and his brief appearance in the last-16 was utterly unremarkable, as was his subsequent performance for the remainder of the club campaign. Ferreira, conversely, simply did not possess the equivalent proficiency of his fellow squad members.
The nine fundamental players for the U.S. in 2022 were either actively competing or had recently competed at an elite European standard — but their contribution ended there. Berhalter’s decision to substitute Walker Zimmerman for a crucial fixture highlighted the precariousness of the central defensive position alongside Ream; subsequently, the central attacking role, despite opportunities for Wright, Ferreira, and Josh Sargent, remained a significant void.
This particular squad was not prepared to endure a prolonged tournament progression.
Regarding the 2026 World Cup?
It is at this juncture that I urge supporters of the U.S. to foster some optimism.
Some weeks prior, my associate Jeff Carlisle put forth his anticipated starting eleven for June 12’s encounter versus Paraguay at SoFi Stadium:
The most significant query pertains to the goalkeeper position, though apart from that, I would contend this is undeniably a superior squad compared to what was witnessed in Qatar. Ream has aged by four years, yet Chris Richards and Mark McKenzie represent substantial improvements over the alternative central defenders who featured in 2022. Moreover, it is apparent that Folarin Balogun significantly surpasses the standard set by any of the U.S. forwards from four years prior.
However, what of the athletes who could fill those roles from the 12th to the 16th positions in terms of squad depth?
Weah, a starter in 2022, presently holds a starting berth for Marseille, the club positioned third in France. Also, midfielder Johnny Cardoso recently completed every minute of Atletico Madrid’s commanding victory against Tottenham in the Champions League’s knockout stage. Furthermore, offensive midfielder Malik Tillman has participated in approximately two-thirds of the playing time for Bayer Leverkusen, another Champions League participant.
PSV attacker Ricardo Pepi appears poised for a transfer valued at tens of millions of dollars in the near future. Defender Alex Freeman recently transferred to Villarreal, currently third in LaLiga after Real Madrid and Barcelona, for €3.5 million. Versatile defender Joe Scally consistently features for every minute of each match for Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga.
Even the prospective substitute players who were reserves four years past have demonstrated betterment. Wright ranks second in the English Championship with 14 goals from open play, achieving this for a team holding a 22-point advantage at the summit of the league. Aaronson is now finding the net and setting up goals at twice the pace he managed with Leeds in 2022.
Several other highly proficient Championship athletes exist, such as Aidan Morris and Patrick Agyemang, and the MLS participants in this current iteration, particularly Cristian Roldan and Max Arfsten, appear more inclined to exert a constructive influence than what was observed previously.
Should the U.S. aim to secure victory in a minimum of one knockout stage encounter, it will then require noteworthy performances from those players who are not regular starters.
Although the emergence of the inaugural genuine American football icon is still anticipated, Pochettino will enter this summer’s competition possessing an asset unparalleled by any previous American manager: a collection of Champions League starters and established European talents, poised on his substitute’s bench.
Simply put, if extensive squad depth is a prerequisite for a significant advancement in the World Cup, then this current version of the U.S. men’s national team holds the potential to progress further than it has in a considerable period.