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The 2026 men’s basketball championship is now underway! During this entire competition, Mark Zinno will share his top wagers for every stage, alongside his selections for the fresh ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator contest.
Notice: Betting lines provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and may fluctuate.
Thursday’s Top Wagers
(12) High Point +10.5 (-115) versus (5) Wisconsin
Match start: 1:50 p.m. ET
The selection panel frequently enjoys pairing the strong points of lower-ranked teams with the vulnerabilities of higher-ranked teams. This scenario is precisely what we observe in this matchup. High Point achieves an average of over 90 points per contest. Among the premier six squads in the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s defensive performance ranks as the poorest. The Badgers exhibit an average proficiency in both effective field goal percentage defense and 3-point shooting defense. High Point is poised to pose numerous challenges for the Badgers.
The Panthers currently boast the longest active victory run nationwide, spanning 14 games. Their gameplay is characterized by significant speed, and their ball distribution facilitates close-range scoring opportunities. On defense, they excel around the perimeter, limiting adversaries to a 31.9% success rate from beyond the arc. The Badgers heavily rely on successful 3-point attempts. High Point compels turnovers at the nation’s fifth-highest frequency and might unsettle Wisconsin’s shooters. Should there be a classic 12/5 upset this season, this encounter presents it. I believe this bet remains viable even down to +9.5.
(2) Houston/(15) Idaho first half TOTAL EXCEEDING 63.5 points (-105)
Match start: Approximately 10:10 p.m. ET
At times, the focus simply rests on the figures. This first-half aggregate is so modest that two conditions must be met for it to stay under: Houston would have to net under 40 points, and Idaho would need to accumulate fewer than 25. Should merely one of these scenarios unfold, I anticipate the total will surpass the mark. Naturally, the Cougars’ defensive unit possesses the capability to stifle Idaho’s offense. However, there’s a distinction between stifling Idaho and restricting an opposing team to 23 points (or less) within a single half, an occurrence seldom seen in university basketball. The Vandals attempt numerous 3-point shots, and they genuinely require only a handful to connect to surpass 25 points within the initial 20 minutes.
Moreover, is it genuinely plausible that Idaho’s defensive strategy could impede a Houston offense that ranks 14th in offensive effectiveness? I doubt it.
While I recognize the Cougars employ one of the nation’s most deliberate paces, they are still expected to largely dominate the Vandals’ defense sufficiently to tally 40 points in this segment. Once more, the risk here lies in Houston securing a lead of ten points or more and subsequently further reducing the game’s pace, yet the Cougars have averaged 38.1 points in the initial half this season. Reaching that figure should secure our wager.
Thursday’s Eliminator Selection
Michigan State Spartans
I harbor minor concern regarding the 14-seed North Dakota State Bison potentially posing difficulties for the Spartans, but Michigan State’s defensive unit is anticipated to bear the primary burden. I foresee no further occasion where I would deploy the Spartans, considering the UConn Huskies hold the 2-seed position in the East, and it would not even astonish me if they failed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Instructions for participating in the ESPN Eliminator Challenge
Friday’s Top Wagers
(10) Santa Clara +3.5 (-115) versus (7) Kentucky
Match start: 12:15 p.m. ET
Kentucky is designated as the favored team here, seemingly predicated solely on its reputation. This contest, in my estimation, ought to be more evenly matched. The Broncos have proven their mettle through extensive competition, having participated in the West Coast Conference. They possess sufficient physical presence to contend in the paint against the Wildcats, holding the 19th rank nationally in offensive rebound rate. The Broncos frequently attempt 3-point shots, and even a moderate rate of success in converting these attempts would exert considerable strain on Kentucky.
A pivotal factor in this encounter will be Santa Clara’s aptitude for inducing turnovers, given their 22nd national ranking in defensive turnover percentage. However, Kentucky exhibits strong ball security, thus obliging the Broncos to prevail in the turnover contest. Santa Clara also stands out as the superior free throw shooting squad, a characteristic that could prove decisive in a closely fought match.
(5) Texas Tech -7.5 (-115) versus (12) Akron
Match start: 12:40 p.m. ET
Texas Tech will proceed without its top athlete, JT Toppin (torn ACL), yet this absence is unlikely to impede the Red Raiders when facing Akron. The Zips’ statistics appear somewhat misleading, given they have competed against the identical subpar opposition as the Miami (OH) Redhawks. Any time Akron encountered a non-conference opponent within the top 125 in adjusted efficiency margin, they suffered defeat. Consequently, engaging a Texas Tech squad ranked 20th in this metric implies they will be outmatched, especially from beyond the arc. The Red Raiders represent a premier 3-point shooting collective, converting over 39% of their attempts this season. They are expected to exploit a Zips defense that ranks 253rd in defending 3-point shots. Akron has been an underdog only once this season, against the Purdue Boilermakers, a game they lost by 18 points. This does not represent the 12/5 upset scenario many anticipate. Bet on Tech to cover the spread.
(10) UCF +5.5 (-108) versus (7) UCLA
Match start: 7:25 p.m. ET
UCLA has successfully covered the spread in five consecutive contests leading up to its game against UCF in Philadelphia. Nevertheless, the Bruins have encountered difficulties when playing outside the Pacific time zone this season. They possess merely a single victory in seven regular-season outings, which was against the struggling Penn State Nittany Lions, and have been favored in only two matchups beyond the Pacific time zone this season (-4.5 against Penn State and -1.5 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers).
They did manage to secure two wins at the Big Ten tournament held in Chicago, defeating the modest Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartans, but achieving this against the Spartans necessitated a 56% field goal percentage and a 48% success rate from 3-point range (marking their sixth-best shooting performance of the season). This particular points spread appears overly generous for this UCLA squad, indicating a favorable opportunity to “sell high” on the Bruins.(15) Queens collective score EXCEEDING 68.5 (-120) versus (2) Purdue
Match start: 7:35 p.m. ET
I continue to examine the statistics, and I find it difficult to imagine Queens failing to register 70 points in this contest. A significant interrelation exists among all the figures here. Purdue’s projected team total stands at 94.5. Queens possesses one of the nation’s weakest defenses, therefore the Boilermakers, holding the No. 1 ranking in offensive adjusted efficiency, are expected to achieve a high scoring output, despite operating at a pace ranked 324th nationally. As Purdue accumulates more points, the Royals will be afforded additional possessions.
And Queens demonstrates shooting proficiency. There is no question concerning this. The Royals attempt a substantial volume of 3-pointers, and they successfully convert them. Purdue’s defensive unit is not notably robust, ranking 232nd in effective field goal percentage defense and 197th in 3-point shooting defense.
The Boilermakers’ tempo represents the sole factor that could prevent this total from exceeding the mark. In nearly every situation where Queens faced an opponent within the top 200 in adjusted efficiency margin, including five encounters with Power 5 institutions, the Royals achieved at least 69 points. The single exception was a 41-point defeat to the Auburn Tigers, where they managed merely 65 points, recording their second-lowest field goal percentage and their lowest 3-point percentage for the season. This scenario illustrates the potential for the total to remain under.
Friday’s Eliminator Selection
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks face a challenging assignment in the East within a bracket that I believe could witness considerable upheaval. However, the anticipated sequence of facing St. John’s and subsequently Duke in their subsequent two matches increases the likelihood that Kansas may be eliminated early in this competition.
Instructions for participating in the ESPN Eliminator Challenge
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