Developing your own views on players in fantasy baseball is consistently encouraged … yes, including those that are critical.
Following a prior look at the players I’d most desire to add to my teams this season, we shall now direct our attention towards those I am primarily steering clear of in 2026 drafts. However, as I frequently emphasize with this endeavor, there is invariably a stage during drafts where a player could descend to become a comparative bargain and unquestionably desirable. Therefore, do not outright remove these individuals from your considerations prior to the commencement of the draft — rather, be entirely certain about the position at which you are content acquiring them before committing them to your 2026 squads.
In light of initial outcomes from specialist leagues and ADP (average draft position), I am sidestepping the subsequent 15 athletes:
The Giants potentially possess baseball’s least proficient defensive right flank of the diamond, featuring Arraez at second base and Rafael Devers at first (further details about him will follow). With Devers, Bryce Eldridge, and Jerar Encarnacion, the squad has an abundance of players suited for first base or designated hitter roles should it require an adjustment. Arraez’s ability to make contact is quite beneficial in scoring leagues, yet he faces a significant risk of reduced playing time attributable to his subpar defensive capabilities and limited quickness. I foresee numerous instances of substitutions for pinch-runners or defensive upgrades like Christian Koss ahead for him.
A frequent choice for a potential breakthrough, Bradish possesses formidable off-speed deliveries (slider, curveball) that elevate his potential performance metrics; however, he is also just 21 months and 54 professional innings post-Tommy John surgery. He is selected 18th overall among starting pitchers in NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Main Event leagues, a placement that seems excessively magnanimous for an arm who might undergo pitch count limitations. He belongs in the same category as George Kirby, Jesus Luzardo, and Dylan Cease, and I would readily choose any of those three alternative options ahead of him.
How fortunate do you consider yourself? A great deal aligned favorably for Buxton in 2025, from his participating in his highest number of contests (126) in eight years, to his launching 35 home runs, and achieving an impeccable 24-for-24 success rate in stolen base attempts. Nonetheless, he incurred two additional stints on the disabled list — these being brief periods of unavailability — thus, let those occurrences function as an admonition that even under the most optimistic circumstances, he remains prone to periods of inactivity. Randy Arozarena, Riley Greene, and Taylor Ward are all markedly more secure selections one should consider prior to Buxton.
Chapman’s 2025 campaign was unprecedentedly superb; nevertheless, the very factors that rendered it exceptional also make it exceedingly improbable to recur (or even come close to). Bear in mind that Mariano Rivera stands as the sole relief pitcher in history with successive campaigns of a minimum of 30 saves and a 2.0 WAR post his 37th year of age, whereas a mere 14 hurlers have ever accomplished a solitary campaign of this nature after turning 37. Chapman’s personal record .200 BABIP is incapable of being maintained annually, and his ERA could easily rise twofold (or more severely), thereby causing his premium closer valuation to appear exorbitant.
Rafael Devers, 1B/DH, Giants
The risk of reduced playing time is less urgent with Devers than with Arraez (or Eldridge or Encarnacion), given he is one of only two athletes (along with Aaron Judge) to achieve a minimum of 25 round-trippers and a 50% hard-contact percentage in every one of the preceding six full MLB campaigns. Devers’ challenge stems from being in one of the most unfavorable home settings for a batter possessing his capabilities; additionally, his strikeout frequency has climbed in each of the preceding two seasons, and he is currently experiencing an unfortunate spring training period.
Scarcely any hurlers have shown such a significant drop in mean fastball speed as Estevez this spring; he recorded merely 87.1 mph in his initial pair of Cactus League outings and 90.7 in his solitary World Baseball Classic contest (March 9), a steep reduction from his 95.9 figure throughout the 2025 standard season. Speed is not the sole determinant, and Estevez possesses a track record of diminished spring training metrics (a 93.8 mph average from 2023-25); however, he has also significantly exceeded his underlying statistics over the last two campaigns.
Goodman’s unrefined strength is authentic, yet he is improbable to sustain a .278 hitting average into 2026, even with Coors Field’s batter-advantageous setting aiding his performance. He is a well-known aggressive batter, registering 225 swings and misses on pitches outside the zone last year (ranking seventh highest across Major League Baseball), and exhibiting a 34-point discrepancy separating his recorded and anticipated hitting averages (the largest among those eligible for the batting title). Candidly, Yainer Diaz and Francisco Alvarez could equally replicate Goodman’s production for a considerably lower cost.
Helsley’s 2025 campaign deteriorated following his end-of-season transaction to Flushing and his removal from the primary relief position, as his base-on-balls percentage surged to 11.6%, and he allowed four long balls and 13 hits for extra bases over his concluding 22 outings. Currently in Baltimore, he holds a greater likelihood of save opportunities, notwithstanding his placement in a competitive division and a batter-favored
home environment. Helsley’s fastball velocity is also down this spring (96.0 mph, down from 99.3 in 2025), heightening concerns he might not maintain the job.
A notoriously slow starter, Lindor is recovering from an early spring training hamate bone fracture, which appears unlikely to threaten his status for Opening Day but may still have lingering impact upon his power in the season’s early weeks. After averaging 32 homers and 30 stolen bases over the past three years, he’s currently going among the top 30 overall picks in both ESPN and NFBC drafts, which is too lofty a price in ESPN leagues for a player you might be able to trade for on the cheap around May 1.
Marte is being drafted as a clear fantasy starter in both ESPN (199th overall ADP) and NFBC (175th) formats, and while he’s a 24-year-old with plenty of room to grow, he hasn’t shown nearly enough at the MLB level to warrant a hefty investment. He has played only a combined 187 games between the majors and minors over the past two seasons, underscoring his injury risk. Plus, his 2025 hard-hit rate (36.3%) and xwOBA (.304) were both worse than league average.
I want to believe Naylor can repeat last season’s 30 stolen bases. He has an 85.9% career stolen base rate, and his manager, Dan Wilson, issues green lights like the basepaths are a state highway at 2 a.m. All that said, banking on even 20, let alone 30, steals from a player who has finished in the 15th percentile or worse in Statcast’s sprint speed in all four of his full MLB seasons is folly. If Naylor regresses to 25/13 (homers and steals), he’s effectively Brandon Nimmo, who is going two or three rounds later.
Peralta has been a remarkably consistent strikeout artist, one of just two pitchers with at least 200 K’s in each of the past three seasons (Cease is the other), but his 2025 fantasy production was helped by good luck. He managed the highest left-on-base percentage of his career (85.5%), and his expected ERA was nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual number. Peralta is in a better home environment with the Mets this year, but that’s only inflating his price tag close to the position’s top 10.
I drafted him for $2 in Tout Wars this past weekend and even then didn’t feel great about it. For additional context, consider that he was an $18 player in that draft just one year ago. Sasaki’s first year in the U.S. was nightmarish, from his 17.4% strikeout rate to the 161 days he spent on the IL, and his performance this spring has done nothing to inspire a Yoshinobu Yamamoto-like second year rebound. Sasaki has walked nine out of 38 hitters while surrendering a 47.4% hard-hit rate.
Like Buxton, a bet on consecutive healthy seasons from Story isn’t an advisable one. Last year was Story’s first since 2018 in which he avoided the IL, and he finished in the 33rd percentile or lower in terms of walk, strikeout and chase rates as well as Statcast’s expected wOBA. He’s among the more reliant upon playing time to fuel big fantasy totals and, while his No. 2 lineup spot helps, he’ll need to have health closer to his 2021 or 2025 seasons than his 2022-24 years in order to repeat it.
Speaking of declining spring velocities, Strider’s might be the most troubling of any on the list. A 281-strikeout pitcher who averaged 97.2 mph with his fastball three seasons ago, the right-hander has averaged just 94.5 mph with the pitch in three Grapefruit League starts (after averaging 95.4 mph across his final 10 starts of 2025). After such a sluggish finish to his first year back from a second UCL surgery, he needed to show more than that in order to have any hope of being worth a top-30 starting pitcher pick.