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Nations in the Gulf region express apprehension regarding increasing perils to vital national infrastructure, following what appear to be retaliatory assaults on two water purification facilities, intensifying the conflict initiated by the US and Israel against Iran.

Bahrain announced on Sunday that an Iranian drone had caused damage to a desalination plant, while Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated a day earlier that a purification site in the southern part of the Islamic republic had been targeted. Bahrain reported no adverse effects on water provisions from what it characterized as an indiscriminate attack.

Gulf states are profoundly reliant on processing seawater to meet the demands of their expanding populations in one of the planet’s most challenging climates. Here, summer temperatures frequently surpass 50C, and permanent rivers are nonexistent.

Consequently, desalination plants represent some of the most crucial infrastructure within the region. Airports, seaports, data centers, oil refineries, and liquefied natural gas production sites have already faced assaults.

While Iran does desalinate some water, its dependence on this process is significantly less than that of its Arab neighbors across the Gulf.

The widespread practice across the area of situating energy-intensive desalination facilities close to power stations renders them susceptible to assaults on energy infrastructure. This raises concerns that targeting water supplies could pose an existential threat to these arid nations.

Nevertheless, industry executives indicated that any disruption to desalination infrastructure would need to be extensive and prolonged to jeopardize potable water supplies.

Metito Utilities, headquartered in Dubai with operations spanning the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, maintains approximately 45 days’ worth of strategic water reserves for the UAE. Multiple desalination facilities exist, and should one be incapacitated, others would continue to function, according to chief executive Rami Ghandour.

“It is prudent to responsibly plan for potential dangers, but much of the present anxiety is exaggerated and risks generating undue alarm,” Ghandour remarked. “In any emergency scenario, non-essential applications such as irrigation would be the first to be curtailed.”

In the UAE, the predominant portion of water consumption is associated with agriculture, landscape watering, and industrial operations.

The Middle East and North Africa constitutes the most water-deficient region globally. As per the World Bank, the average annual per capita water availability stands at 480 cubic meters, contrasting with a worldwide average of 5,500 cubic meters.

While the World Bank reports that 60 percent of desalinated water is utilized for drinking in the MENA region, industry leaders stated that this percentage is lower in the Gulf states.

Moreover, climate change exacerbates this situation, leading to erratic precipitation patterns and contributing to diminished water storage. Population expansion has also played a role, driven by substantial migration flows into economies that have experienced robust growth in recent years.

Companies and governing bodies in the area have invested billions into technologies that extract salt from water either by forcing it through a fine membrane or by heating it.

Ehsan Moslemi, an Iranian economist, communicated on Telegram that it would be “more advantageous for all parties” to refrain from engaging in the destruction of essential infrastructure. He penned, “Those residing in fragile structures should abstain from casting stones at others’ fortifications.”

Saudi Arabia holds the distinction of being the world’s foremost producer of desalinated water, generating over 7.4 million cubic meters of fresh water daily. Its capital, Riyadh, is the most populous city in the Gulf. As motorists approach from the east, they are greeted by colossal storage reservoirs that hold drinking water conveyed through pipelines from desalination facilities on the Gulf coast.

However, with an average intake of 263 liters per individual per day (in comparison, the typical person in England consumes 136.5 liters daily), a 2018 National Water Strategy revealed that the country’s strategic water reserve would barely endure for half a day. The nation has since been augmenting desalination capacity and constructing a series of strategic water storage facilities.

Specialists assert that any menace to that invaluable water provision by targeting desalination plants would represent a significant escalation for both sides.

Kaveh Madani, an Iranian scientist who presides over the United Nations University Institute for Water, brought up the prospect that assaults on desalination plants could infringe upon the international laws of conflict.

“If one considers attacking a medical facility or primary school a war crime, then assaulting a desalination plant also constitutes a war crime,” he declared. “We are discussing impacts on millions of people.”

Article 54 of the 1949 Geneva Convention forbids attacks on “drinking water installations and provisions and irrigation works” to deny “sustenance value” to a civilian populace or country under assault.

Robert Mogielnicki, a non-resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, indicated that Gulf states would be striving “continuously” to prevent unfavorable repercussions.

“Intentional Iranian targeting of desalination infrastructure in adjacent Gulf states would be a measure that the region’s administrations could not readily overlook,” he remarked.