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Canada’s petroleum firms are poised to gain a significant unexpected profit of up to C$90bn ($65.6bn) should raw oil prices sustain the highs reached since the onset of hostilities in Iran.
Projections from Enverus, a data analytics firm, suggest that Canadian enterprises could accumulate an additional C$25-C$30bn in earnings for each $10 increase in petroleum costs this year, in the wake of market instability triggered by US and Israeli assaults on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate, the American standard, climbed to slightly above $98 by Friday, up from $67.02 on February 27, providing a substantial impetus to a sector that aims to grow its sales abroad to Asian economies contending with difficulties in securing energy resources because of the Mideast conflict.
Canada currently ranks as the planet’s fourth-biggest petroleum producer, and Premier Mark Carney revealed strategies to increase hydrocarbon shipments to shield its economy from a damaging trade dispute commenced by US President Donald Trump. However, petroleum and natural gas firms possess restricted capability to augment foreign sales beyond North America owing to an insufficiency of conduits to littoral terminals, rendering them nearly wholly dependent on American clientele.
François Poirier, CEO of TC Energy, among the foremost pipeline corporations in Canada and the US, stated that the sealing of the Strait of Hormuz compelled clients to search for different sources from North America. Fresh conduits ought to be constructed to allow producers to react to emergencies in the Mideast, to fortify the energy independence of Canada’s partners and capitalise on the country’s inherent assets, he noted.
“The natural endowment is certainly present. Manufacturers are certainly able to escalate output to that extent. And it’s merely a matter of seizing a fleeting chance,” Poirier remarked, further stating that Canada possesses the capacity to emerge as the foremost provider of LNG to Asia.
He urged the administration to undertake “essential overhaul of current statutes” to stimulate corporations to construct additional conduits.
“Our desire is for the fundamental regulatory framework to be simplified, rationalised, and for schedules to be expedited, as these measures are crucial for attracting investment into Canada,” Poirier stated.
Petroleum output in Canada is surging and reached an unprecedented 5.19mn barrels daily in the initial half of 2025, an increase from 5.13mn b/d in 2024, as per Canada’s energy oversight body. Stock values of Canadian petroleum firms are approaching their highest points in a decade, and the equities of the top four producers — Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Imperial Oil and Cenovus — have climbed by 40 percent or beyond since early 2026.
Canada dispatches over 90 percent of its raw petroleum to the US, where it is marketed at a reduced price owing to conduit limitations and given that its high-sulfur, dense crude demands more intricate processing compared to petroleum extracted from US shale formations.
Nonetheless, petroleum firms are augmenting shipments to Asia subsequent to the finalisation of the Trans Mountain Expansion conduit in May 2024, which facilitated the transport of raw oil from Alberta’s petroleum fields to the western seaboard for Asian markets. Consignments to China escalated by over fourfold, reaching 88.7mn barrels last year, based on maritime transport figures scrutinised by the Baltic and International Maritime Council.
Observers noted that the geopolitical unrest in the Mideast had solidified Canada’s standing as a reliable energy provider, simultaneously bolstering the argument for constructing fresh conduits to Canada’s Pacific coast for Asian economies.
“This conflict serves as another stark illustration of its importance to Canada’s national interests and why the worldwide petroleum market requires Canada to construct a new 1mn-barrel-per-day pipeline,” commented Eric Nuttall, a chief portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners.
Lisa Baiton, head of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, remarked that the turmoil in Iran underscored Canada’s necessity to assume a considerably greater part in international energy stability.
“Presently, Canadian output and our capacity to ship goods are not hindered whatsoever; thus, producers are currently fetching elevated prices. Over the long haul, occurrences in the Middle East strengthen Canada’s standing as a secure locale for energy capital and a trustworthy commercial ally,” she stated.
A study released by ATB Economics and Studio.Energy recently projected that enlarging Canada’s petroleum export facilities by 1.5mn b/d — which represents an increment of almost a third — might contribute an average of C$31.4bn to the nation’s true gross domestic product annually throughout the coming ten years.
“This signifies a 1.1 percent growth in Canada’s actual GDP — a substantial impetus given that this nation has contended with difficulties in elevating GDP per individual for over ten years,” the document stated.
However, RBC observed this month that should crude stay beyond $100 per barrel, overall inflation might climb by three-quarters of a percentage point, reaching a high of approximately 3 percent in Canada and 3.5 percent in the US during the current year.