Access the White House Watch bulletin at no cost
An essential overview of the implications of Trump’s subsequent tenure for governance, commerce, and global affairs
Were European heads of state to influence the upcoming US presidential contest, Gavin Newsom would likely be the leading contender. Just a month following his conspicuous appearance in Davos, California’s chief executive presented himself with veteran poise in Munich. Considering the warm reception Newsom received from China’s Xi Jinping last October, coupled with his participation in the global climate conference in Brazil (partially compensating for America’s nonattendance), he might well be topping the global preliminary contests as well. “Donald Trump’s tenure is transient,” Newsom frequently asserts. “He will depart within three years.”
Convincing America’s Democratic electorate will prove considerably more challenging than persuading international observers. Nevertheless, Newsom possesses two initial advantages in what is anticipated to be a densely packed race. Firstly, he demonstrates a readiness to confront. Trump detests Newsom, and the sentiment is mutual. In an era where Democratic figures on Capitol Hill appear to be honing the craft of issuing strongly worded correspondence, Newsom has emerged as America’s closest equivalent to an opposition leader. He has devised strategies to unnerve Trump. The “Newsom knee pads” — his satirical item for American CEOs and allied officials who show deference to Trump — are achieving robust sales.
Newsom’s additional strength lies in his campaigning expertise. Unlike his Californian counterpart, Kamala Harris, who was defeated by Trump in 2024, Newsom exhibits a strong inclination to challenge the Democratic progressive wing. Bill Clinton’s denunciation of the African American rap activist Sister Souljah in 1992 serves as a precedent. Newsom initiated several smaller “Sister Souljah” episodes last year by featuring the subsequently deceased MAGA activist Charlie Kirk on his audio program. Newsom conveyed to Kirk his view that it was “profoundly unjust” for transgender athletes to participate in women’s athletic competitions. The progressive cultural segment now harbors animosity towards him. Harris ought to have sought their disapproval in 2024.
While Newsom comfortably tops the wagering odds for the Democratic nomination — with the progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez significantly behind in second place, and Harris trailing even further — a wide spectrum of Democrats harbor suspicion towards Newsom. His core principles remain ambiguous to many. During his tenure as San Francisco’s mayor, he was one of America’s earliest and most vocal proponents of same-sex marriage. Currently, he appears to be abandoning the identity politics wing of the left. Harris faced sharp criticism from Trump’s campaign message: “Kamala supports ‘they/them.’ President Trump supports ‘you.’” Newsom might be vulnerable to a similar slogan: “Newsom supports ‘he/him,’ while Candidate Y supports ‘you.’”
Regarding his soaring aspirations, no one holds any reservations. Newsom appears to have been strategizing his presidential bid since approximately 1997. This implies he has thoroughly considered the requisites for such an endeavor. The title of his campaign autobiography, Young Man in a Hurry, endeavors to transform his singular focus into an asset. The publication also addresses an illicit relationship he had with an aide’s spouse during his mayoral term, Newsom’s involvement in his mother’s assisted suicide while she suffered from cancer in his mid-thirties, and his susceptibility to self-improvement mentors. The heartland of America is improbable to embrace a Californian possessing impeccably styled hair. Newsom appears to embrace the epithet of being his party’s “hair apparent”.
What renders America’s forthcoming presidential election distinctive is the pervasive uncertainty regarding its freeness and fairness. An identical concern extends to the November 2026 midterm elections. Trump’s undermining of US constitutional standards has significantly elevated the risks. Serving as a governor capable of persuading judges to remove the US National Guard from his jurisdiction accrues political capital. Similarly, the Newsom referendum to redraw electoral districts for a clear five-seat Democratic advantage, which passed overwhelmingly in November, also scored points. California’s chief executive has demonstrated his combativeness, yet his overarching objective continues to be unclear.
Nancy Pelosi, the erstwhile Democratic Speaker and Newsom’s most fervent supporter, asserts that “democracy finds its salvation in the domestic sphere”. In an era where economic accessibility is the prevailing call to action, Newsom’s financial principles remain indistinct. Ink-signing agreements for sustainable energy, as Newsom accomplished with the UK on Monday, and indicting Trump for yielding a renewable “self-inflicted setback” to China, fails to serve as an adequate alternative.
Posterity might reflect upon the Trump era as the juncture when the tech magnates of Silicon Valley assumed dominion over collective destinies. Newsom maintains an uneasy proximity to his state’s technology moguls. Conversely, Middle America appears receptive to AI-driven populism. Capturing this demographic offers a threefold benefit. The aspirant capable of most effectively expressing constituents’ anxieties regarding their offspring’s digital dependency and their personal employment stability, while simultaneously addressing America’s troubling degrees of disparity, stands to gain significantly.
Such an individual might not be Newsom. However, as the adage suggests, he ought to strive for the ultimate reward or perish in the attempt. In Munich during the prior week, Newsom observed the intensifying transatlantic schism. Regarding apprehensions about AI, nonetheless, America is aligning with European sentiments.
edward.luce@ft.com