The initial weeks of a fresh baseball campaign often prove exceptionally challenging to manage.
Data sets are limited, “overreaction spectacles” consistently draw a full house each evening, and every player off to a strong start appears poised for a breakout year or, if not initially selected, could be “the acquisition of the season.” Furthermore, it’s a period where fantasy strategists are eagerly impelled to implement sweeping alterations to the lineups they established just days prior. Consequently, this presents an opportune moment to benefit from the missteps of others … yet simultaneously, it demands vigilance to prevent yourself from committing similar errors.
The straightforward advice is to rely on your pre-season draft planning and exercise meticulous patience during early April. Nevertheless, we are compelled to form certain assessments grounded in limited statistical data, lest we forfeit the chance to seize potentially championship-altering opportunities.
This situation becomes particularly arduous concerning starting pitchers, as the majority have completed merely a single outing thus far. However, due to the abundance of sophisticated metrics accessible nowadays, we can render considerably more enlightened choices regarding sparingly utilized starters. Once more, sweeping alterations to the pitching staff are ill-advised at this nascent juncture — therefore, avoid undue alarm concerning Paul Skenes’ dreadful Opening Day performance, which was significantly impacted by Oneil Cruz’s defensive blunders and featured the right-handed hurler exhibiting comparable velocity and pitch movement! Nonetheless, specific observations have already prompted me to reconsider my pre-season appraisals of particular starting pitchers.
The subsequent five hurlers exhibit initial metrics suggesting that their 2026 statistical potential is considerably loftier than foreseen. Should they be on your squad, refrain from dealing them; conversely, if they are not, contemplate extending an offer while their acquisition cost remains potentially reasonable.
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
Merely three hurlers accumulated more than Schlittler’s 25 fantasy points in their initial regular-season outing, and his arsenal appeared just as devastating as witnessed during his pair of 2025 postseason showings on the national platform. Schlittler continues to unleash his fastball exceeding 98 mph, and he currently relies more extensively on a cutter that has proven quite potent against left-handed batters (.200 BAA, 24.1% whiff and 31.3% hard-contact rates spanning the 2025 regular season/postseason, 2026 spring training, and his outing last Friday).
The Yankees seemingly harbor no significant apprehensions regarding Schlittler’s pitching volume, a logical stance given he accumulated 120⅔ innings in 2024 and 149⅔ in 2025 (164, encompassing postseason play). It could strike one as audacious to assert his potential firmly within the positional elite top 10 for 2026, especially since he boasts only 17 major league starts (reiterating, including his playoff efforts) and was not even considered a premium prospect; however, his repertoire undeniably constructs a powerful argument for him.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Few spring training occurrences could have astonished me more than Ohtani’s return from the World Baseball Classic, subsequently delivering 61 pitches merely four days later, having not thrown a ball in an organized contest since October … and appearing remarkably proficient while doing so. He would subsequently hurl an additional 86 pitches six days thereafter, achieving a 40% swing-and-miss rate across his pair of appearances and accumulating 15 strikeouts against the 34 batters confronted — and he would pitch another 87 in his regular-season premiere on Tuesday, accumulating six scoreless innings of one-hit pitching valued at 22 fantasy points.
Although Ohtani was diligently undertaking bullpen sessions both prior to and during the WBC, 87 pitches nonetheless exceeds his count in all but two of his 14 regular-season starts last campaign, serving as a powerful indication that the Dodgers view him as a permanent fixture in their 2026 starting rotation. Indeed, it is widely acknowledged that Ohtani will likely always be a contender for the MVP award based solely on his hitting prowess … yet if the Dodgers permit Ohtani to pursue his career best of 166 innings thrown (2022) — and I surmise they may — his advancements in 2025 regarding velocity, command, and swing-and-miss rate afford him a credible shot at a 1,000-point (550 offensive, 450 pitching) campaign. We may not have witnessed Ohtani’s MVP-caliber pitching fully materialize thus far. Astounding!
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
An atypical inclusion on this compilation, Imanaga’s 2025 fantasy output regressed — and his initial start of the current season (5 IP, 4 ER) was far from brilliant. However, a closer examination of the statistics reveals he has made notable advancements in his pitch arsenal, developments that collectively could position him as an early acquisition candidate.
Attributable to the refinements he implemented with his sweeper late last season, his already reliable splitter, and the two-notch increase in his average fastball velocity between spring training and his inaugural regular-season outing, Imanaga registered a 20.1% swinging strike rate throughout spring training. This represented the third-highest rate among any active member of a starting rotation. He would subsequently achieve a 39.5% whiff rate in his 2026 premiere, his pitching statistics marred by a three-run home run from Joey Wiemer. Nevertheless, considering the improvements in his pitch selection, Imanaga could very well regain his 2024 performance standard, or even surpass it.
Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds
Burns’ fantasy worth experienced a decline during spring training, as the Reds’ front office entertained the concept of a three-pitcher tandem system involving him, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson to occupy their concluding two rotation vacancies. However, if you observed Burns’ Monday season premiere (five innings of one-hit pitching featuring seven strikeouts), you witnessed precisely what establishes the 23-year-old right-handed hurler as one of the sport’s most thrilling burgeoning starters.
From his MLB debut on June 24, 2025, Burns has elicited a swing-and-miss on 34.1% of batters’ cuts across the regular season and preseason, marking the highest rate by any pitcher who has confronted a minimum of the 278 batters he has. Possessing a fastball exceeding 98 mph and a slider that has produced a 60% whiff rate between spring training and the inaugural week — truly, it has! — naturally accomplishes this. Anticipate the Reds exercising prudence with Burns — a vital component of their future and a pitcher who contended with flexor concerns late last year — but if he is granted even 140 innings, he could emerge as a top-20 fantasy asset in his position.
Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers
He represents the long shot on this roster, yet Leiter’s incremental improvements across the last nine months, combined with his elite prospect background, render him an enticing 2026 breakout contender. His Monday appearance featured him fanning eight Baltimore Orioles, marking the fourth instance in his last eight regular-season performances where he achieved at least that many, concurrently, his 21 swings-and-misses rank as the third highest by any pitcher in a single game to date (Jacob Misiorowski 25, Dylan Cease 24).
The incorporation of a cutter has aided in broadening Leiter’s pitch collection, offering strong opposition to his fastball exceeding 97 mph and his exceptional changeup, implying that the surge in his strikeout rate could be enduring. Recall that he garnered 158 second-half fantasy points last campaign (an aggregate surpassed by merely 20 pitchers) and this occurred prior to the debut of his novel pitch. Leiter possesses the potential to culminate as a top-25 starting pitcher.